SF Transportation Plan Update

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1 SF Transportation Plan Update CAC Meeting #11 Existing Conditions and Future Baseline Needs Revised, Part I twitter.com/sanfranciscota January 30, 2013

2 Presentation outline Purpose of the analysis and what we need from you Framework for the existing conditions and needs analysis System performance findings, part 1 Needs analysis by goal area, part 1 Economic competitiveness Livability Healthy environment World-class infrastructure (State of Good Repair) Discussion: implications for investment scenarios Next steps twitter.com/sanfranciscota 2

3 Purpose and what we need from you The findings from the existing conditions and future needs assessment will help shape the SFTP Investment Scenarios We have revised the needs analysis based on: Final Regional Transportation Plan growth projections Final Baseline definition / transportation network assumptions Recent sector work by SFMTA (Bicycle Strategy, Pedestrian Strategy) We seek your perspectives on: Are there other pieces of information that you d like to see? How should the Investment Scenarios respond to these needs? twitter.com/sanfranciscota 3

4 Existing & future baseline updates Land use assumptions updated Horizon year advanced from Park Merced and Treasure Island developments included in baseline ~97,000 new HH; ~271,000 new residents; ~137,000 new jobs Transportation assumptions updated Projected growth is equivalent to adding: ¾ the population of Caltrain Downtown extension included High-speed rail blended service included Additional fully-funded development Oakland projects included: Park Merced LRT extension, More local jobs roads than & currently bus facility; Treasure Island local roads in Marin County Travel demand forecasting model version updated Transit crowding directly connected to decision-making about route and mode Pedestrian choices more directly tied to street/block conditions Better inputs Better tool More useful results Better decision-making Bike factors more closely tied to terrain/conditions, assigned to network route twitter.com/sanfranciscota 4

5 Needs Assessment Framework Total tripmaking Mode share Transportation System Performance Person miles over vehicle miles traveled (PMT/VMT) Transit:Auto Travel Time Ratio Economic Competitiveness Congested Streets Motorized Travel Time Peak:Off-peak Drive Travel Time Goods movement and visitor trip needs Healthy Environment Vehicle miles traveled Greenhouse gas emissions Active Transportation (walking & biking) Trips Livability Transit trips requiring transfer Non-auto mode share Average trip-length School trip needs State of Good Repair Crowded Transit Lines Pavement Condition Index Transit Reliability Structural Sufficiency Equity Public Input twitter.com/sanfranciscota 5

6 Expect over 5 million trips to/from/within SF by % more trips than today 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Total Trips To, From, and Within SF by Mode 603,400 Projected growth in car trips is 40% MORE than current daily Golden Gate and Bay Bridge crossings 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , , , ,600 Auto Transit Bike Ped 2012: Total 2040: Additional Trips Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 6

7 Current Conditions: Trips To, From, and Within SF Car trips dominate SF s transportation network Bike 2% 2012: Distribution of Trips by Mode (2012 Mode Share) 1 Walk 25% Transit 20% Auto 53% Some promising changes over past 10 yrs 50% growth in bike mode share 2 Growth in car-sharing, shuttles, other TDM But similar problems persist Pedestrian safety Transit reliability Transit crowding Congestion 1. Source: SF-CHAMP Source: Census Transportation Planning Package, twitter.com/sanfranciscota 7

8 Projected Tripmaking To, From, and Within SF Though shares trending as hoped, minor changes overall 2040 Distribution of Trips by Mode (2040 Mode Share) Bike, 2% Percent Growth in Total Trips by Mode ( ) Walk, 25% Transit, 21% Auto, 52% Board Mode of Supervisors: bike Percent mode share goal of 20% Change by 2020 Auto 30% SFMTA: Transit bike mode share 36% goal of 10% by 2018 Walk 35% Bike 55% for ALL trips? Or just trips within San Francisco? Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 8

9 Projected: Mode Share for Local Trips Meets goal for half of trips non-auto Bike 3% 2040: Mode Share, Local Trips Percent Growth in Total Trips by Mode ( ) Walk 33% Auto 44% Mode Auto 32% Transit 35% Walk 35% Bike 56% Percent Change Transit 20% Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 9

10 Projected: Mode Share for Regional Trips Walk 3% Transit 21% 2040: Mode Share, Regional Trips Bike 1% Percent Growth in Total Trips by Mode ( ) Mode Auto 27% Transit 41% Walk 48% Bike 61% Percent Change Auto 75% Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 10

11 Projection: To, From, and Within Downtown Lowershare of car trips, but congestion? Walk, 41% 2040: Daily Mode Split Bike, 2% Auto, 28% Percent Growth in Total Trips by Mode ( ) Mode Percent Change Auto 14% Transit 28% Walk 28% Bike 86% Transit, 29% Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 11

12 Change in Regional Auto Trip Patterns ( ) Big Increase in Auto Trips To and From the Southeast Neighborhoods Legend Difference in Total Trips (top three quintiles of pairs), Difference in Total Trip Generation (internal and external), Source: SF CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 12

13 Change in Local Auto Trip Patterns ( ) Similar Pattern, with the Southeast Neighborhoods Generating Most New Trips Legend Difference in Total Trips (top three quintiles of pairs), Difference in Total Trip Generation (internal and external), Source: SF CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 13

14 Growth in Daily Regional Transit Trips to/from SF Similar to trends previously seen Largest growth in transit tripmaking from the Southeast, but not surprising given land use developments, Downtown Extension, etc. Growth in East Bay tripmaking still challenging, given crowding we already see today Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 14

15 Baseline Summary System Performance Metrics key descriptors help indicate challenges and opportunities Change Total trip-making 3,793,200 5,043,400 33% Non-Auto Mode Share 46.9% 48.2% 3% Transit : Auto travel time (ratio) Persons/Vehicle (PMT/VMT) Coming soon Coming soon twitter.com/sanfranciscota 15

16 Needs Assessment Framework Total tripmaking Mode share Transportation System Performance Person miles over vehicle miles traveled (PMT/VMT) Transit:Auto Travel Time Ratio Economic Competitiveness Congested Streets Motorized Travel Time Peak:Off-peak Drive Travel Time Goods movement and visitor trip needs Healthy Environment Vehicle miles traveled Greenhouse gas emissions Active Transportation (walking & biking) Trips Livability Transit trips requiring transfer Non-auto mode share Average trip-length School trip needs State of Good Repair Crowded Transit Lines Pavement Condition Index Transit Reliability Structural Sufficiency Equity Public Input twitter.com/sanfranciscota 16

17 Baseline Summary Performance by Goal Area Change Economic Competitiveness Congested streets in PM (miles) Coming soon Motorized Travel Time Coming soon Peak : off-peak car travel time (ratio) Coming soon Goods movement needs (qualitative) Fall 2011 Not modelable SOGR Crowded transit lines Pavement condition index (PCI) Fall 2011 Structural Sufficiency Coming soon Not modelable twitter.com/sanfranciscota 17

18 Baseline Summary Performance by Goal Area Change Healthy Environment Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) Active Transportation (walk/bike trips pp) % Average auto trip length (miles) % School trip needs (qualitative) Fall 2011 Not modelable Livability Trips requiring a transfer Coming soon Non-auto mode share 46.9% 48.2% 3% Transit Reliability Coming soon Not modelable Safety (injury collisions involving pedestrians) 1 in 4 Not modelable twitter.com/sanfranciscota 18

19 Change in Regional Vehicle Miles Traveled ( ) Eastern Neighborhoods Drive VMT To and From SF Legend Difference in VMT (top three quintiles of pairs), Difference in Total VMT Generation (internal and external), Source: SF CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 19

20 Change in Local Vehicle Miles Traveled ( ) Again, Eastern Neighborhoods Drive Growth in Local VMT Legend Difference in VMT (top three quintiles of pairs), Difference in Total VMT Generation (internal and external), Source: SF CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 20

21 Total Household Vehicle Miles Traveled (2040) Outlying Neighborhoods Show Highest VMT Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 21

22 Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Household Auto (2040) Generally, Outlying Neighborhoods, Particularly in the Southeast, Have Highest VMT Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 22

23 Vehicle Miles Traveled to Workplaces (2040) Eastern Neighborhoods See Most Commute VMT Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 23

24 Transit Crowding with 40% more trips, expect more crowding by 2040 Transit Routes at or over Capacity, 2012 Transit Routes at or over Capacity, 2040 At/nearing Capacity Over Capacity Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 24

25 Transit Crowding by Operator Muni is largest operator, and experiences greatest increase 5x more!! Person Hours Travelled in Crowded Conditions (2012, a.m.) Person Hours Travelled in Crowded Conditions (2040, a.m.) 50,000 50,000 PHT, overcapacity links (>100%) 40,000 40,000 PHT, crowded links (80-100%) 30,000 30,000 PHT, uncrowded links 20,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 - AC Transit Golden Gate Transit SamTrans SF MUNI - AC Transit Golden Gate Transit SamTrans SF MUNI Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 25

26 Transit Crowding: expect large increases 66% more time spent in overcrowded lines, 3.5x more time in crowded lines 120,000 AM Transit Crowding: Person Hours Travelled in Crowded Conditions on All Transit Lines touching SF 100,000 80,000 PHT, overcapacity links (>100%) PHT, crowded links (80-100%) PHT, uncrowded links 60,000 40,000 20, Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 26

27 Bicycle tripmaking demand and projected growth 2.5 % of all trips are made by bike today 75,000 daily bike trips 77% of bike trips 3 miles or less While 34% of San Franciscans report biking at least once/week, roughly 2/3 never bike Source: SFMTA twitter.com/sanfranciscota 27

28 Bicycle trip-making demand and projected growth Bike trip-making goals 20% mode share by 2020: would be a 500% increase in biking from % mode share by 2018: would be a 160% increase from 2011 Core Bicycle Areas in 2010 already have a 7% bike mode share 20% mode share: means converting 2/3 of all short auto trips to bike trips 9% mode share: requires converting ¼ of all short auto trips to biking Source: SFMTA twitter.com/sanfranciscota 28

29 Projected Bike Trip Lengths, 2040 much like we see today 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 - Up to.5 mi. Number of Bike Trips Within SF, By Length.5-1 mi mi. or more 77% of bike trips shorter than 3 mi. Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 29

30 Projected: Auto Trip Lengths (2040) 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 - Number of Auto Trips Within SF, By Length Up to.5 mi..5-1 mi mi. or more ~950,000 auto trips within comfortable biking distance 58% of all local auto trips are 3 miles or shorter Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 30

31 Projected: Transit Trip Lengths (2040) 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 - Number of Transit Trips Within SF, By Length Up to.5 mi..5-1 mi mi. or more ~380,000 transit trips within comfortable biking distance 50% of all local transit trips are 3 miles or shorter Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3 twitter.com/sanfranciscota 31

32 Bike sector Issues Instances of bike crashes rising in proportion to increase in bike activity Consistent collision rate since 2006 Source: SFMTA twitter.com/sanfranciscota 32

33 Bike network needs SFMTA Bicycle Strategy Improve quality and density of system, including Enhance connections along the waterfront and coast Close network gaps Provide comfortable bike facilities in all neighborhoods More widespread bike parking facilities Innovative uses of space to provide additional parking in the core Achieve minimum bike parking coverage rates Source: SFMTA twitter.com/sanfranciscota 33

34 Bike network needs SFMTA Bicycle Strategy Improve bike facilities and enhance bike security at regional transit stations Implement bike sharing system Enhancements in bike culture Implement bike education in schools and bike-focused driver education Expand Sunday Streets and other bike-friendly events and create partnerships across agencies to market biking Enhance network planning Create a new comfort assessment methodology to aid in bike planning Conduct a connectivity assessment Source: SFMTA twitter.com/sanfranciscota 34

35 Bike network needs network fragmentation Source: SFMTA twitter.com/sanfranciscota 35

36 Walking Key walking streets Latest data indicates ped mode share today is 25%: meets MTA goal of 23% 1 Average trip length: 1 mi. 2 1 and 2: Source: SF-CHAMP 4.3. Map source: Walk First report, twitter.com/sanfranciscota 36

37 Walking Safety Historical Trend and Target Consistent collision rate since 1990 Fatal/severe injuries reduction by 50% by 2021 Sources: Draft Pedestrian Strategy, SFMTA Collision Report twitter.com/sanfranciscota 37

38 Walking Safety Injury Density and Crossing Risk High-Injury Density Corridors: 5% of SF s street miles bear 55% of all severe and fatal injuries and 51% of total pedestrian injuries Source: San Francisco Department of Public Health, twitter.com/sanfranciscota 38

39 Walking Safety Injury Density and Crossing Risk Pedestrian Crossing Risk by Intersection: Highlights SE part of San Francisco where the pedestrian volumes are low Source: San Francisco Pedestrian Volume Model. twitter.com/sanfranciscota 39

40 Walking Needs Infrastructure 44 miles in urgent need of safety and walking comfort treatments 800 intersections need additional pedestrian crossing time 13,000 curb ramps need to be upgraded in the next 10 years 85 closed crosswalks 184 signalized intersections need pedestrian signals at all four corners 44 schools ineligible for 15 mph speed signs, located on arterials; need alternate treatment Sources: Draft Pedestrian Strategy, SFMTA Collision Report twitter.com/sanfranciscota 40

41 Walking Needs Non-Infrastructure Expand education /outreach: MTA to start comprehensive marketing program this year Expand school education program Increase enforcement hours (MTA aims to increase by 30% by FY 2021) Enhance evaluation/monitoring Better institutionalize pedestrian needs Citywide pedestrian capital project list Implement the Better Streets Plan, develop complete streets Improve project delivery process Sources: Draft Pedestrian Strategy, SFMTA Collision Report twitter.com/sanfranciscota 41

42 Walking Needs High Priority Segments Source: Draft Pedestrian Strategy. twitter.com/sanfranciscota 42

43 Public perception of transportation system needs City Hall Must Tackle Muni's Problems. San Francisco Chronicle, December 27, 2012 Muni fixes will be painful, but they are necessary. San Francisco Examiner, April 6, 2012 Should this culture of inefficiency be tolerated where improvements can be made? Adrienne Jan, SFSU student San Francisco Chronicle, December 30, 2012 "I was waiting for it to be terrible," he said of Muni. "And it wasn't. transit rider on the busiest weekend of the year in San Francisco San Francisco Chronicle, October 6, 2012 "When Muni melts down and people can't get where they're going in a timely manner, our entire city suffers. Sup. Scott Wiener San Francisco Chronicle, January 14, twitter.com/sanfranciscota 43

44 Public perception of transportation system needs Support for projects to improve transit efficiency Demand for improvements to pedestrian safety, traffic calming Get back to the basics: O&M, Muni reliability Strong desire to improve cycling and walking conditions, traffic calming Desire for cost savings, faster project delivery twitter.com/sanfranciscota 44

45 Needs Assessment Framework Still to come Total tripmaking Mode share Transportation System Performance PMT/VMT Transit:Auto Travel Time Ratio?? Economic Competitiveness Congested Streets Motorized Travel Time Peak:Off-peak Drive Travel Time Goods movement and visitor trip needs Healthy Environment Vehicle miles traveled Greenhouse gas emissions Active Transportation (walking & biking) Trips Livability Transit trips requiring transfer Non-auto mode share Average trip-length School trip needs Equity Public Input State of Good Repair Crowded Transit Lines Pavement Condition Index Prop E stats (reliability) Structural Sufficiency twitter.com/sanfranciscota 45

46 Thank you! Discussion / next item: how do these needs translate into SFTP Investment Scenarios? twitter.com/sanfranciscota

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