Ragnar Tveteras. University of Stavanger Norway

Transcription

1 Ragnar Tveteras University of Stavanger Norway Professor Ragnar Tveteras is a business economist at the University of Stavanger s Department for Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning. His research focuses primarily on aquaculture and seafood markets. As a writer and lecturer, he maintains relationships with authorities and private decision makers at the regional, national and international levels. 1

2 Fish Production Estimates & Trends, Ragnar Nystoyl Ragnar Tveteras

3 Acknowledgements Organizations: GAA, Urner Barry, Norwegian Seafood Council, Eurostat, FAO, Apromar, IMF. Darryl Jory, Paul S. Valle, Apostolos Tzoumas, Brian O Hanlon, Chris Calogeras, Dr. P.E.Vijay Anand, Jack Zhang Chunbin, Kevin Fitzsimmons, Liu Liping, M Siva Prasad, Mauricio Castro, Philip Shin, Ronald Cheong, Sergio Zimmermann, Tzyh-Chung Miaw, Sigbjorn Tveteras, and many anonymous sources. 3

4 Scope of Analysis Most focus on internationally traded species: Typically imported to USA, Europe & Japan. Production forecasts for 213 for all chosen species: But for some species only major producer countries/regions. Global production forecast for 214 almost all species. 4

5 Finfish Species Included in Freshwater Tilapia Analysis Barramundi Milkfish Catfish Pangasius Channel catfish, etc. Carp Diadromous Salmon & Trout Atlantic salmon Coho salmon Trout Marine Seabass & Bream Flatfishes Olive Flounder Atlantic Halibut Turbot Cobia Atlantic cod Bluefin tuna Grouper 5

6 FRESHWATER 6

7 TILAPIA

8 Tilapia Global Aquaculture Production 1 METRIC TONNES REAL PRICE (USD/KG) Sources: : FAO; : Kevin Fitzsimmons ; Prices US import frozen fillet: NMFS. Note: Prices are January- December averages, except for 212 (January- August average) 8

9 Tilapia Countries production sorted by 212 figures China Indonesia Egypt Philippines Brasil Thailand Brazil Others Bangladesh Vietnam Taiwan Colombia Ecuador Mexico Malaysia 5, 1,, 1,5, 282,275 34, 237,55 254, 265, 123,333 16, 71, 57, 41,667 55,75 47, 587, , 1,312, Average of es\mates from several sources. 9

10 PANGASIUS

11 Pangasius Production in selected countries 3,, 2,5, Metric Tonnes 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 1,415,75 971, 92, 1,1, 423,15 486,622 56, 644, 313,333 35, 3, 34,667 Vietnam Thailand Indonesia India Bangladesh Sources: Kontali, Dr. P.E.Vijay Anand, M Siva Prasad and several anonymous. 11

12 1 Metric tonnes Pangasius Produc/on in Vietnam and EU import real import price (EUR kg) Real export price (EUR/kg) Sources: FAO ( ), miscellaneous sources ( ). Prices: Norwegian Seafood Council/Eurostat. 12

13 Produc/on in metric tonnes Total production of Catfish species Excl. pangasius Brazil Egypt Myanmar Others Cambodia Uganda Malaysia Thailand Nigeria USA Bangladesh Indonesia China Vietnam Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous anonymous. 13

14 Produc/on in metric tonnes Total production of Catfish species 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, US unit import price catfish products 886,9 1,59,92 1,32,521 1,578,1 2,77,969 2,676,22 2,72,89 3,199,68 3,365,587 3,635, 3,685, 3,69, US D per kg Produc\on US Unit import price ca]ish Sources: FAO, Kontali. Prices: Urner Barry. 14

15 DIADROMOUS 15

16 SALMONIDS

17 Atlantic Salmon Production and EU15 real import price fresh gutted from Norway Production in metric tonnes 25 EU real import price (EUR/kg) , ,176 83, ,74 1,32,712 1,8,897 1,132,994 1,244,637 1,252, 1,272,1 1,399,7 1,497,5 1,468,9 1,446,2 1,622,9 1,98,4 2,13,3 2,74, Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSEC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices are annual averages. Price in 213 is January- July average. 17

18 Produc/on in Metric Tonnes Atlantic Salmon Production by country Norway Chile UK Canada Faroe Islands Australia Ireland USA Others Source: Kontali 18

19 Coho Salmon Total Production and Real Export Price on Chilean Coho Frozen Round Production in Metric Tonnes 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Production Real price 39,164 44,385 48,513 49,154 58,7 58,36 76,197 84,867 88,32 89,475 18,626 15, ,745 15,869 1, ,2 119,5 138,6 138, 18,4 125,2 147,7 167,9 179,8 141, Price in Real USD per Kilo Sources: FAO, Kontali,NSC 19

20 Produc/on in Metric Tonnes Coho Salmon Production by country Chile Japan Others Source: Kontali 2

21 4, Rainbow Trout Total Marine Production and Chilean frozen USD/kg (blue) and Norwegian fresh EUR/kg (red) real export prices 7 Metric tonnes 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 33,567 34,321 47,512 57,175 69,748 8,593 13,9 125,73 145, , ,33 26,58 222,433 25,55 214, ,3 253,6 34,9 328,3 297,5 37,1 316,5 362,4 298,1 288, Real export price Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSC. Note: Prices are annual averages except 213 (January-July average). 21

22 Produc/on in Metric Tonnes Trout production in Latin America, excl. Chile Venezuela Peru Panama Mexico Costa Rica Colombia Sources: FAO ( ); Anonymous (212_215). 22

23 Barramundi / Asian Seabass

24 Barramundi Total production by major producing Countries Metric Tonnes Others Australia Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Taiwan Source: FAO 24

25 3 25 Barramundi Production forecasts for selected countries Taiwan Australia Indonesia Vietnam Metrc Tonnes Sources: FAO (22-21) and anonymous sources ( ) 25

26 MARINE 26

27 SEA BREAM AND BASS

28 Production in metric tonnes Seabass & Sea Bream Meditteranean Production 4 35 Sea Breams Sea Basses ,5 113,2 16,7 123,5 169,2 12,7 17,3 124,7 166,2 127,7 161,1 129,7 177,4 142,8 195,2 147,5 18,5 154,2 Source: FEAP, Kontali (26-213) 28

29 Seabass & Sea Bream Mediterranean Production & Real Italian Production Sea Basses and Breams Real price fresh Gilthead seabream Production (metric tonnes) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 14, , , , ,4 23 Import Price 157, , , ,2 27 Real price fresh whole seabass 289, , , , ,2 212 Real Price (Euro per kilo) 342, , Source: FEAP, Kontali, Eurostat 29

30 FLATFISHES

31 Olive Flounder Production and real farmgate price Production in metric tonnes Japan Rep. of Korea Real price Rep. of Korea (USD/kg) Real price (USD/kg) Sources: FAO ( ), Philip Shin and anonymous ( ) 31

32 Turbot Production in selected countries excl. China Others Denmark France Real Farmgate Price Spain Norway Portugal Spain Metric Tonnes Real Price (EUR/Kg) 2 2 Sources: FAO, Kontali. 32

33 Atlantic Halibut Production Iceland UK Norway Real Export Price Norway Produc/on in metric tonnes Real Price (USD/kg) Source: FAO (21-24), Kontali (25-214), NSC (prices). Note: Prices are annual averages, price in 213is January- July average. 33

34 COBIA

35 Cobia Major Producing Countries until Metric Tonnes Real price Taiwan (USD/kg) Other Colombia Taiwan China Real price Taiwan Source: FAO 35

36 Farmed Cobia Estimates for Vietnam, Taiwan and Panama Metric Tonnes 4 Vietnam Taiwan Panama Source: FAO (211), Various sources ( ) 36

37 ATLANTIC COD

38 Atlantic Cod Total Farmed Production and Norwegian Produc/on in metric tonnes Export price Real price in Euro per kg Faroe Islands Canada UK Iceland Norway Export price fresh guted Cod Sources: Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries ( ), Kontali (25-213), Norwegian Seafood Council (Prices). Note: Prices are annual averages, price in 213 is Jan-July average. 38

39 TUNAS

40 Bluefin Tuna Total Produc/on and US real import price fresh Metric tonnes Production US import price fresh Real price (USD/kg) Sources: Produc\on - Apostolos Tzoumas; import price- NMFS. Note: Prices are annual averages, price in 212 is January- August average. 4

41 MUSSELS

42 Total Mussel Produc/on 1,82, 1,8, Metric Tonnes 1,78, 1,76, 1,74, 1,72, 1,7, 1,68, 1,727,638 1,81,541 1,797,9 1,79,986 1,83,65 1,811, Sources: Kontali and misc. sources 42

43 Summary Finfish 43

44 Aquaculture Production of Fish Species and 1-year growth rate Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes Produc\on Double in a decade % growth % ten year growth rate Source: FAO 44

45 Aquaculture Production of Fish Species Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes and Seafood Price Indices Produc\on Total price index Aquaculture price index Seafood price index (22-24=1) Source: FAO 45

46 Diadromous Species Annual Percent Growth Rates Milkfish, Philippines Barramundi (AU, IN, TW) Trout, La\n America Rainbow trout Coho salmon Atlan\c salmon

47 Freshwater Species Annual Percent Growth Rates Channel Ca]ish Pangasius, Vietnam Carp, China Tilapia

48 Marine Species Annual Percent Growth Rates Grouper Bluefin tuna Atlan\c cod. Atlan\c halibut Turbot, excl. China Olive flounder; Korea Rep Sea bass & bream, Medit

49 Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp in China, Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes

50 Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp in China, Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes Produc\on % growth % growth

51 Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp in China Mill. Metric Tonnes Marine Diadromous Freshwater

52 Growth Rates by Species Groups ( average growth rate in parenthesis) 35. % growth Freshwater (7.2%) Diadromous (5.8% Marine (6.9%)

53 Growth Rates by Species Groups 35. excl. Carp in China ( average growth rate in parenthesis) % growth Freshwater (13.5%) Diadromous (5.8% Marine (6.9%)

54 Production of Surveyed Whitefish Species Excluding Carp in China, Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes

55 Production of Surveyed Whitefish Species Excluding Carp in China, Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes Produc\on % growth % growth 55

56 Production of Surveyed Whitefish Species and Average Import Prices Frozen whole Excluding Carp in China, Produc/on in Mill. metric tonnes Produc\on USA aquaculture USA capture EU15 capture Average Import Price Source prices: Norwegian Seafood Council 56

57 Did they double in a decade? Percentage growth Pangasius, Vietnam Atlantic halibut Channel Catfish Trout, Latin America Barramundi (AU, IN, TW) Tilapia Atlantic cod Sea bass & bream, Medit. Turbot, excl. China Atlantic salmon Coho salmon Milkfish, Philippines Carp, China Rainbow trout Grouper Olive flounder; Korea Rep. Bluefin tuna Percent 57

58 Did they double in a decade? Percentage growth Marine Diadromous Freshwater ex. Carp China Freshwater 98.8 TOTAL EX. CARP CHINA TOTAL Percent 58

59 Thank You! 59