The 2017 Open Championship

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Ralph Johnson
5 years ago
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The 2017 Open Championship Golf s third major of the year is also its oldest and this week a 165-strong field battle it out for the famous Claret Jug.

1 The 2017 Open Championship Golf s third major of the year is also its oldest and this week a 165-strong field battle it out for the famous Claret Jug. Last year at Royal Troon, Henrik Stenson overcame Phil Mickelson in an epic twoway tussle to break his major duck takes us back to Royal Birkdale, the scene of Padraig Harrington s second consecutive Open success in COURSE DETAIL Royal Birkdale, Par 70 7,173 yards Based in Southport on the north-west coast of England, Royal Birkdale has cemented its place in Open Championship folk law since making its debut in During this time only St Andrews has hosted the Championship more times. It s regarded as one of the truest tests of links golf with the venue framed by sand dunes, consisting of tight fairways, typically penal bunkers, greens famously tricky and consecutive holes that are often played into opposing wind directions. The cream usually rises to the top at Birkdale with the eight men to win being recipients of 19 Claret Jugs between them, including five multiple champions Peter Thomson, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Tom Watson and Harrington. Some of the great Open memories have taken place here with 53-yearold Greg Norman leading into the final round in 2008, while in 1998 a 17-year-old Justin Rose famously announced himself on the world stage when finishing 4 th as an amateur. Like many links courses its greatest defence is the wind, which can often be brutal coming off the Irish Sea, turning the course into a monster. Never was this more evident than in 2008 where over the weekend just 12 players made par or better as Harrington eventually prevailed with a final score of three-over par to win by four shots and record the only over-par championship winning score this century. Previously in 1998, Mark O Meara won via a play-off after finishing on level par after 72 holes during a weather-affected four days. If conditions dictate then breaking par won t be easy. Patience will be rewarded, with one of the toughest opening holes on the tournament rota and both par 5s not featuring until the final four holes. The 15 th and 17 th have potential to be gamechangers, yielding eagles and bogeys alike, making for a grandstand finish as well as interesting in-play betting tactics. Harrington played the par 5s better than anyone in 2008, so how they are handled will be vital. Unlike the last three Opens, don t expect a birdie-fest with resilience a key factor here and par often a good score on many holes. Things can change very fast and in 2008 over half of the top-15 finishers were outside the top-50 after one round.

2 The course underwent a major re-development before the 2008 edition so there is little change to the set up this year. Although the fairways are narrow, they are relatively straight with few blind shots and the statistics in 2008 suggest that missing by a small margin offers little penalty except for the penal bunkers. Of the first 15 home, just two ranked in the top-20 for driving accuracy. Only five players finished within seven shots of Harrington and below is the average of their key stats (including Harrington). Driving Distance: 32.7 Driving Accuracy: 31.3 Greens In Regulation: 26.0 Scrambling: 13.3 Putting Average: 30.8 With a plethora of missed greens over the four days a top-class scrambling game was essential to success. In anything but benign conditions Scrambling is a must, along with a cool temperament to deal with adverse circumstances. KEY FACTORS FOR FINDING AN OPEN CHAMPION Links form usually translates nicely from course to course, so here are the averages of the key stats for last 10 Open winners: Driving Distance: 25.6 Driving Accuracy: 28.3 Greens In Regulation: 17.2 Scrambling: 18.9 Putting Average: 12.5 The all-round game needs to be in good nick to compete in this prestigious event, but it s around the greens where it can be won and lost. Ernie Els, in 2012, is the only champion in the last decade not to rank in the top-11 for putting average, but the Big Easy gave himself plenty of opportunities by leading the GIR stats. Scrambling is even more important in links golf and the last four winners all ranked in the top-seven during the week of their triumph.

3 Experience & Open Form Year Player Age Appearances Previous Best 2016 Henrik Stenson Zach Johnson T Rory McIlroy 25 6 T Phil Mickelson T Ernie Els Darren Clarke T Louis Oosthuizen 28 3 CUT 2009 Stewart Cink T Padraig Harrington Padraig Harrington T Tiger Woods Tiger Woods Stenson's sensational win at Royal Troon continued the trend of those longer in the tooth doing well at this event as the 40-year-old won on his 12 th appearance. 10 of the last 12 winners of the Claret Jug have been making at least their 11 th start, while since Tiger won in 2006, eight of the 10 champions have been 35 or more. Furthermore, Open legends Greg Norman and Tom Watson both in their 50s went out in the final pairings on Sunday in 2008 and Past Open success is also a massive plus. Louis Oosthuizen won in 2010 despite failing to make a cut in his previous attempts, but the South African evidently took a shine to St Andrews, where his only other notable performance came in 2015, losing in a play-off. Excluding Oosty, every winner since 2005 had recorded at least a top-six finish prior to their success. Form Stenson s victory also adds even more gravitas to backing in-form players at the Open, especially in recent years. Last season the big Swede had a victory and six top-10s to his name when he arrived in Ayrshire meaning five of the last seven champions had won at least once that year prior to lifting the Claret Jug. The two exceptions Els and Zach Johnson were both having strong seasons though with the Big Easy recording six top-10 finishes, while Johnson had eight. Going back further, 35 of the last 47 winners (74%) had won a main tour event that year. Preparation The Scottish Open confirmed itself as the ideal warm-up for the Open with the first four home at Troon 12 months ago all playing at Castle Stuart the week before. In fact, six of the last seven Open champions (since the Scottish Open moved to a links track) warmed up for golf s oldest prize at the Scottish Open. The result is less important with Mickelson (who won) the only Open champion to record a top-10 finish since It s the time adapting to links conditions that seems crucial and leaving plenty in the tank for the main event looks to be a bonus.

4 This year, players have had the luxury option of two tournaments to get tuned for Birkdale, with the Irish Open played the week before the Scottish Open taking place at the links complex, Portsteward Golf Club in Northern Ireland. Although these warm-up tournaments are a blessing in helping to identify a winner, they re also a curse as any player who goes well will see their price dramatically drop just look at Jon Rahm whose success at the Irish Open now sees him vying for favouritism. Nevertheless, it would be a surprise to see a winner that hadn't lined up in at least one of these. Weather & Draw Early indications suggest we re going to get a windy week with some rain, which will make for some interesting viewing, so if a player can t handle gusty conditions then forget it. The wind level is expected to be consistent throughout Thursday, but those out early may be at a slight advantage with a weather warning for intense downpours on Wednesday. The early birds should get the best of the softer conditions with the greens likely to firm up by the afternoon, but as we saw in 2008, when conditions were seriously tough, it will provide the sternest tests over all four days. THE BIG-THREE? At the US Open, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy were the three clear favourites. The betting suggests that this is a much more open major with eight players vying for favouritism between 17.0 and Nevertheless, we ll give our take on what we regard as the three main attractions: Dustin Johnson 17.0 For the first time this season DJ is out there as favourite on his own. Since a freak accident on the morning of the Masters, he s been unable to recapture that air of invincibility, missing the cut in his last two events. However, he is tough to ignore given how well his game is suited to links golf with his ability to flight the ball low and long in the wind. He s had his chances before most notably at Royal St George s in 2011 before going out-of-bounds on the 14 th. Johnson hasn t played since the US Open and each of the last seven winners had played the week before. Jordan Spieth 17.0 Has limited tournament experience compared to many of his main rivals, but is certainly playing the best golf coming in of the Big-Three. Although never challenging, he played terrifically in windy conditions when out early in the final round of the US Open. His putting looked back to its deadly best when winning the Travellers in his last start, which was his second victory this season to go with five top-10s. Links pedigree is a negative for the young Texan who in just his fifth appearance at the Open has only one performance of note and that was at arguably the easiest Open course on the rota St Andrews and he was coming off back-to-back majors. Rory McIlroy 21.0 Of all the leading fancies, Rory is the only player to line up in both Scottish and Irish Open. Although the Irish was obligatory with his charitable foundation hosting, his showing at the Scottish Open perhaps suggests he is searching for form. Three years ago, Rory embarked on a similar schedule and missed the cut at the Irish Open before finishing a reasonable 14 th in Scotland. The following week

5 he went to the north-west of England and surged to a convincing Open triumph at Hoylake. However, he s missed the cut at both warm-up events this year which was especially worrying at the Irish Open where the winner score was 24-under. With breezy conditions expected, it s unlikely that the four-time major winner will suddenly click this week. LINKS SPECIALISTS Many thought that if Sergio Garcia was to break his major duck then is would be at this tournament, but the Spaniard instead arrives at Birkdale with a Green Jacket in his closet. His Open pedigree is there for all to see with 10 top-10 finishes since 2001 including in each of the last three, so could Garcia finally get over the line now he has the major monkey off his back? Reigning champion Henrik Stenson is aiming to repeat what Harrington did nine years ago and win back-to-back titles. He finished third at Birkdale behind the Irishman and after a poor 2017, where he missed four consecutive cuts at one point, the Iceman has started to rediscover some form with an encouraging 10 th at the BMW International and a solid 26 th at the Scottish Open. Like Garcia, Adam Scott is another who should have had a Claret Jug to his name by now. He blew his chance in 2012 when throwing away a four-shot lead with a run of bogeys in the closing holes. The laid-back Aussie has four top-10s in his last five Opens and if the putter fires then he s a dangerous contender. A prime example of experience being a virtue is the seasoned Phil Mickelson who took years to come to terms with links golf but is now regarded as a specialist. Initially, he failed to register a top- 10 finish in his first 11 attempts, then after a couple of near misses Lefty finally won on his 20 th attempt in 2013 and hasn t stopped there, losing out narrowly at Troon 12 months ago. ANOTHER MAIDEN MAJOR WINNER? At Erin Hills, Brooks Koepka became the seventh consecutive maiden major winner and there are plenty in the field who have a great chance of breaking their duck this week. Rickie Fowler is widely regarded as the best player not to win a major and it s surely only a matter of time. We backed him at the US Open where he failed to get over the line despite playing some impressive golf. Arguably the Open is his best chance of a major as he describes links golf as his favourite type of golf. He pushed McIlroy all the way in 2014, has a Scottish Open to his name and registered another top-10 north of the border last week. John Rahm made big waves at the Irish Open as he pulverised the field to win by six-shots. The charismatic Spaniard is having a fantastic season, but conditions at Portstewart were far friendlier than they re likely to be in Southport and there are still question marks over his fiery temperament on the biggest stage. Tommy Fleetwood finished 10 th in Ireland and is having a sensational season, with victory in France earlier this month - his second this season - together with seven top-10 finishes, including fourth at the US open. His Open record is much to be desired, failing to make the weekend on all three occasions, but he grew up a stone s throw away from Birkdale so will have fantastic course knowledge and a favourable crowd. Alex Noren is another to have enjoyed a stellar 12 months, winning five times on the European Tour, including the 2016 Scottish Open, and surely the next step is major glory. The 35-year-old made his Open debut at Birkdale in 2008 and sat fifth after round three before fading away on the Sunday.

6 FROM THE ROUGH Darren Clarke, Ernie Els and Zach Johnson have all won Opens at big prices in recent memory, so don t be afraid to back a few outsiders. The first two home in 2008 Padraig Harrington and Ian Poulter both went well in Scotland last week with Poulter leading before the final round, while the Irishman managed to finish fourth despite a 79 on the Saturday. Both were available at triple-figure prices before Dundonald, but have now been cut to 67.0 and 81.0 respectively. Rafa Cabrera-Bello is another who s price has been slashed after his stunning 64 on Sunday to triumph via a play-off. It ll be a tough ask for the Ryder Cup player to go back-to-back with only Mickelson achieving such a feat in recent times. Other notable performances came from Andy Sullivan, who ended up in a tie for ninth but it was his 67 on the Saturday in adverse conditions that really stood out as others fell by the wayside. Soren Kjeldsen finished well with a strong 68 on Sunday, proving yet again what a superb links and wind player he is and certainly looks over-priced at From the other side of the pond, Steve Stricker always warms-up at the John Deere but it hasn t prevented him chalking up a very respectable Open record. The 50-year-old has made the cut in each of his last nine appearances with four top-12 finishes, including fourth last year, and is showing no signs of age catching up with him. SELECTIONS: RICKIE FOWLER was bang in it halfway through the Scottish Open but failed to kick-on over the weekend, but that could be a blessing in a disguise as he ll have plenty left in reserve for Birkdale. His skills on a links track haven t gone unnoticed, however, as he starts off as joint-favourite at The shrewdies out there would have got the 20s last week but even at a less juicy price we can t ignore him. Fowler ticks a lot the boxes; two top-five finishes at the Open; a winner on tour this season along with seven top-10s; took part in the Scottish Open;, a fantastic short-game where he features in the top-10 on the PGA Tour for scrambling and putting average and is a great wind exponent. It s only a matter of time until he wins a major and the Open represents his best opportunity. SERGIO GARCIA (21.0) should always be in the reckoning when it comes to the Open Championship, especially with the added confidence of a Masters title in his pocket. He s featured in the last two Royal Birkdale Open s coming 29 th on just his second appearance and 51 st in 2008 but we are willing to forgive him as it was just a year on from the heartbreak of Carnoustie. Nonetheless, Garcia has played some excellent golf this season, registering a maiden major and his first European Tour win since 2014 at the Dubai Desert Classic and he features prominently in the all-round stats, currently sitting 8 th, thanks largely to his excellent ball-striking and exceptional scrambling skills. The only negative is his lack of warm-up tournament but he came second when last seen at the BMW International and this being his 21 st Open, has bags of experience. Only DJ can match ALEX NOREN for victories in the last 12 months with the Swede s latest coming after a final round 62 against a high-class field at Wentworth in May is his only top-10 finish at the Open in six starts but as stated earlier he ll have some good memories from Birkdale and is a far

7 more complete player then he was back then. He s proven before to be a wonderful links exponent and although he missed the cut when defending his Scottish Open crown, we re not putt off as he s recorded countless high finishes after a missed weekend. He s fourth for scrambling on the European Tour this season and Wentworth highlighted his ability to get on a roll with the putter. He s at 51.0 elsewhere but with Sky Bet offering 10 places, the world number-nine offers great eachway value at Age is less relevant in this major than any other and the consistent STEVE STRICKER, who often suffers age bias, looks overpriced at He played Stateside last week, closing with a 64 to finish fifth, and although only two of the last 25 winners have taken this route it doesn t put us off as is its part of his usual routine. The last time the 50-year-old missed a cut in a major was the 2009 PGA Championship and in his 26 starts since, he s recorded 14 top-20s, including this year at the Masters and US Open. Stricker is a superb putter and looks a great bet at 5.0 for another Top-20 and given it s the Open a worthy each-way longshot. On the back of the Scottish Open we ll also have a couple of side bets: IAN POULTER has impressed since returning from injury with his effort last week backing up a superb second at the Players. He doesn t find winning easy but clearly has a pedigree for links so we ll back him to finish as Top Englishman. Justin Rose leads the market, but has just one top-10 in the Open since finishing fourth here in Local lad Fleetwood will know the course better than anyone but at double the price an in-form Poulter (13.0) looks the pick. Finally, we ll back SOREN KJELDSEN for a Top-10 finish at The Dane is playing some of the best golf of his life in his 40s, recording his best Open finish (ninth) 12 months ago. He won the 2015 Irish Open in poor conditions and with one eye on the forecast, we expect him to thrive in the blustery conditions at Birkdale this week. RECOMMENDATIONS: RICKIE FOWLER 2pt 17.0 each-way, Bet365 (8, 1/5) SERGIO GARCIA 2pt 21.0 each-way, Will Hill (7, 1/5) ALEX NOREN 1pt 46.0 each-way, Sky Bet (10, 1/5). (if shorter then go 51.0, Betfair, 8 1/5) STEVE STRICKER 0.5pt each-way, Will Hill (7, 1/5) & 2pt Top-20 Finish at 5.0, Paddy Power IAN POULTER 1pt Top Englishman at 13.0, Betfred SOREN KJELDSEN 1pt Top-10 Finish at 17.0, Betfred

8 APPENDIX: Table 1: Key Stats & Trends for Top-20 World Rank Player At least 6 Open apps Top-6 finish at the open Won this season? At least 5 top 10s this season Played week before STRONG TRENDS (out of 5) Scrambling T Putting Av T STRONG STATS (out of 2) TOTAL (out of 7) 1 Dustin Johnson 2 Hideki Matsuyama 3 Jordan Spieth 4 Rory McIlroy 5 Sergio Garcia 6 Jason Day 7 Henrik Stenson 8 John Rahm 9 Alex Noren 10 Rickie Fowler 11 Brooks Koepka 12 Justin Rose 13 Justin Thomas 14 Tommy Fleetwood 15 Adam Scott 16 Paul Casey 17 Francesco Molinari 18 Matt Kuchar 19 Charl Schwartzel 20 Daniel Berger Y Y Y Y - 6 N 4 N N 0 4 N Y Y Y - 5 Y 4 Y N 1 5 N Y Y Y - 7 N 3 N Y 1 4 Y Y N Y - 5 Y 4 N Y 1 5 Y Y Y N - 4 N 3 Y Y 2 5 Y Y N N - 2 N 2 N N 0 2 Y Y N Y - 6 Y 4 Y N 1 5 Y Y N Y - 9 Y 3 N N 0 3 Y N Y N - 4 Y 3 Y N 1 4 Y Y Y Y - 7 Y 5 Y Y 2 7 N N Y Y - 5 N 2 N Y 1 3 Y Y N Y - 5 Y 4 N N 0 4 Y Y N Y - 8 N 2 N Y 1 3 N N Y Y - 9 Y 3 N N 0 3 Y Y N N - 4 Y 3 N N 0 3 Y Y N Y - 5 N 3 Y N 1 4 Y N N Y - 5 N 2 N N 0 2 Y N N N - 4 Y 2 Y N 1 3 Y N N N - 4 N 1 N Y 1 2 N N Y Y - 5 Y 3 N N 0 3

9 Table 2: 2016/17 European Tour Winners 2016/ 17 Season European Tour Winner DEC 04 Alfred Dunhill Championship Brandon Stone (2) DEC 11 UBS Hong Kong Open Sam Brazel (1) JAN 15 BMW SA Open Graeme Storm (2) JAN 22 Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship Tommy Fleetwood (2) JAN 29 Commercial Bank Qatar Masters Wang Jeung-hun (3) FEB 05 Omega Dubai Desert Classic Sergio García (12) FEB 12 Maybank Championship Fabrizio Zanotti (2) FEB 19 ISPS Handa World Super 6 Perth Brett Rumford (6) FEB 26 Joburg Open Darren Fichardt (5) MAR 05 WGC- Mexico Championship Dustin Johnson (n/a) MAR 05 Tshwane Open Dean Burmester (1) MAR 12 Hero Indian Open Shiv Chawrasia (4) MAR 26 WGC- Dell Technologies Match Play Dustin Johnson (n/a) APR 09 Masters Tournament Sergio García (13) APR 16 Trophee Hassan II Edoardo Molinari (3) APR 23 Shenzhen International Bernd Wiesberger (4) APR 30 Volvo China Open Alexander Lévy (4) MAY 07 Golfsixes Denmark Lucas Bjerregaard & Thorbjørn Olesen MAY 14 Open de Portugal Matt Wallace (1) MAY 21 Rocco Forte Open Álvaro Quirós (7) MAY 28 BMW PGA Championship Alexander Norén (9) JUN 04 Nordea Masters Renato Paratore (1) JUN 11 Lyoness Open Dylan Frittelli (1) JUN 18 U.S. Open Brooks Koepka (2) JUN 25 BMW International Open Andrés Romero (2) JUL 02 HNA Open de France Tommy Fleetwood (3) JUL 09 Dubai Duty Free Irish Open Jon Rahm (1) JUL 16 Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open Rafael Cabrera-Bello (3) Table 3: 2016/17 PGA Tour Winners 2016/ 17 Season PGA Tour Winner

10 OCT Safeway Open Brendan Steele OCT CIMB Classic Justin Thomas OCT Sanderson Farms Championship Cody Gribble OCT World Golf Championships HSBC Hideki Matsuyama NOV 3-6 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Rod Pampling NOV OHL Classic at Mayakoba Pat Perez NOV The RSM Classic Mackenzie Hughes NOV ISPS HANDA World Cup of Golf Denmark DEC 8-10 Franklin Templeton Shootout Harris English, Matt Kuchar JAN 5-8 SBS Tournament of Champions Justin Thomas JAN Sony Open in Hawaii Justin Thomas JAN CareerBuilder Challenge Hudson Swafford JAN Farmers Insurance Open Jon Rahm FEB 2-5 Waste Management Phoenix Open Hideki Matsuyama FEB 9-12 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Jordan Spieth FEB Genesis Open Dustin Johnson FEB The Honda Classic Rickie Fowler MAR 2-5 World Golf Championships Mexico Dustin Johnson Championship MAR 9-12 Valspar Championship Adam Hadwin MAR Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Marc Leishman Mastercard MAR World Golf Championships Dell Technologies Dustin Johnson Match Play MAR Puerto Rico Open D.A. Points MAR 30 APR 2 Shell Houston Open Russell Henley APR 6-9 Masters Tournament Sergio Garcia APR RBC Heritage Wesley Bryan APR Valero Texas Open Kevin Chappell APR Zurich Classic of New Orleans J. Blixt / C. Smith MAY 4-7 Wells Fargo Championship Brian Harman MAY THE PLAYERS Championship Si Woo Kim MAY AT&T Byron Nelson Billy Horschel MAY DEAN & DELUCA invitational Kevin Kisner JUN 1-4 The Memorial Tournament presented by Jason Dufner Nationwide JUN 8-11 FedEx St. Jude Classic Daniel Berger JUN U.S. Open Brooks Koepka JUN Travelers Championship Jordan Spieth JUN 29 JUL 2 Quicken Loans National Kyle Stanley JUL 6-9 The Greenbier Classic Xander Schauffele JUL John Deere Classic Bryson DeChambeau

Miscellaneous Facts (through Houston Open)

AGE STATS Youngest: Jon Rahm (23 years, 2 months, 11 days) Oldest: Phil Mickelson (47 years, 8 months, 16 days) 2017-2018 Miscellaneous Facts (through Houston Open) Category # of players Wins Players Winners