Drought or Not? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Drought or Not? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University"

Gyles West
5 years ago
Views:

1 Drought or Not? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Presented at Horticultural Art Society meeting, November 19, 2004, Colorado Springs, Colorado Prepared by Odie Bliss

2 Our climate is great --

But sometimes it s darn dry! http://www.crh.noaa.

3 But sometimes it s darn dry! copyrighted by Steve Hodanish

4 Colorado Springs Average Temperatures 90 Colorado Springs Average Temperatures ( ) Temperature (degrees F) Tmax Tmin Tmean Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

5 2003 Statewide Mean Annual Temperature History Colorado Average Temperatures Actual Temperature Average Temperature Temperature (degree F) Year

6 Colorado Average Precipitation

7 Colorado Springs Monthly Average Precipitation ( ) Colorado Springs Average Precipitation ( ) Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

8 Average Monthly Precipitation for Selected Sites Monthly Average Precipitation Lamar Walsh Center Fruita Rocky Ford Durango Vail Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

9 Statewide Annual Precipitation History 23 Colorado Annual Precipitation Precipitation (inches) Year

10 Colorado Springs Precipitation History Colorado Springs Water Year Precipitation Colorado College Airport Precipitation (inches) WATER YEAR

11 Monthly Average Pan Evaporation Average Monthly Pan Evaporation for Akron and Springfield, Colorado Akron Springfield Evaporation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

12 Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 3 month SPI ( September 2004) Year Fraction (in percent)

13 Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI ( September 2004) Year Fraction (in percent)

14 The Evolution of Our Recent Drought Crystal Lakes serves Colorado Springs, Sept 2002 Seven Falls, during the 2002 drought water was pumped to top.

15 1999 Water Year Precipitation

16 2000 Water Year Precipitation

17 2001 Water Year Precipitation

18 2002 Water Year Precipitation

19 US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2002

20 2002 Daily Streamflow Colorado River near Dotsero, CO 2002 Discharge Mean Discharge Discharge (1000 CFS) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

21 2003 Water Year Precipitation

22 US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2003

23 2003 Daily Streamflow

24 Where Do We Stand Now?

25 Water Year 2004 Precipitation as Percent of Average

26 Growing Season (May-Sep) 2004 Precipitation as Percent of Average

27 US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2004

28 2004 Daily Streamflow

29 WY2004 Temperature Departures 8 Water Year Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

30 Arkansas Basin Snowpack

31 Reservoir Levels Colorado Statewide Reservoir Levels on October 1st for Years Percent of Average Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

32 Colorado Springs 2004 Water Year Precipitation Colorado Springs 2004 Water Year (Oct '03 - Sep '04) Year Averages Max Year Min Year Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated 25 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Months MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

33 What Comes Next?

34 Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Last update: 10 November

35 El Nino Forecast

36 Temperature Dec-Feb 2004 From the Colorado Prediction Center

37 Precipitation Dec-Feb 2004 From the Colorado Prediction Center

38 Temperature Mar-May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center

39 Precipitation Mar-May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center

40 Temperature Jun-Aug 2005

41 Precipitation Jun-Aug 2005

42 For Colorado Springs, Average Precipitation = ~ 17 inches (WY2004 = inches) Average Evaporation = ~ > 24 inches therefore, Drought is NEVER really over.

of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation

43 CoAgMet Weather Data for Agriculture Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration

44 Colorado Climate Magazine Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs

45 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations

47 CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network Over 1,000 volunteers participate in rain, hail and snow measurements. More accurate maps, verifies forecasting, radar research, crop damage, drought/flooding, educational purposes.

48 CoCo RaHS Volunteers of all ages helping scientists study storms. The exploration begins in your back yard!

49 What does it take to be a volunteer? Scientific curiosity. An interest in weather and an appreciation for water. Enough unobstructed space to install a rain gauge. Two minutes a day for a good cause.

50 CoCo RaHS Simple Tools to Study Rain Rain Gauge Example Station

51 CoCo RaHS Simple tools to study hail Hail Pad Damaged Hail Pad

52 Fort Collins daily rainfall examples

53 Colorado Hailstorm July 10, 2002, Parker, CO One of the culprits. Damaged Hailpad.

54 How many volunteers do we need? Our goal is at least one per square mile over urbanized areas. As many as we can find in rural areas.

For more information visit the CoCoRaHS Web site http://www.cocorahs.

55 For more information visit the CoCoRaHS Web site Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program, National Science Foundation and many local charter sponsors.

Drought: What is the Status?

Drought: What is the Status? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Presented at 2005 Peak to Prairie Landscape Symposium, February 11, 2005,