GAZIFÈRE INC. Prime Rate Forecasting Process 2015 Rate Case
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1 Overview A consensus forecast is used to estimate the prime rate charged by commercial banks. As the prime rate is subject to competitive pressures faced by individual lenders and is set on an individual financial institution basis, the effective interest rate is not widely forecast. However, the prime rate shares a consistent relationship with the Bank of Canada s overnight interest rate target (or the overnight rate ) which is a widely forecasted data series. To provide a reasonable estimate of the prime rate, the consensus view of the overnight rate is used as a proxy. Process Forecast A consensus approach is used to establish the overnight rate forecast. Six major Canadian financial institutions 1 views of the overnight rate target are provided multiple times throughout the year. In most cases, projections are published over a two-year horizon which allows for a 24-month consensus forecast. Table 1 displays the six financial institutions forecasts of the overnight rate for the remainder of 2014 and 2015, as of April 7, 2014: TABLE 1: Forecasts by Six Canadian Financial Institutions BMO Capital Markets CIBC Economics Desjardins Economic Studies RBC Economics Research FORECAST DATE: Scotiabank Group TD Economics Average 7-Apr Mar Mar-14 1-Apr Mar-14 2-Apr Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q To determine an average that is representative of the overnight lending rate, a few considerations are made: 1. The Bank of Canada increases/decreases the overnight rate in 25 basis point increments. 2 1 The following six Canadian Financial Institutions are considered: BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Economics, Desjardins Economic Studies, RBC Economics Research, Scotiabank Group, TD Economics. 2 Since August 9, 1996 the Bank of Canada has adjusted the overnight rate by increments of base 25. Page 1 de 8
2 2. The Bank of Canada decides to increase/decrease the overnight rate each year on eight (8) predetermined dates. 3 Recognizing the Bank of Canada s mechanism for setting the overnight rate is important since the aim of this forecast is to closely mimic the process used by the Bank of Canada to arrive at a reasonable estimate of the overnight rate. To satisfy this, the average quarter-end overnight rate forecast as determined in Table 1 is then rounded to the nearest 25-basis points. Table 2 displays the average quarter-end forecast of the consensus group rounded to the nearest 25 basis points: TABLE 2: Average Quarter-End Forecast Rounded to Nearest 25 bps Average Rounded to Nearst 25 bps FORECAST DATE: 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q The next step in the process is to generate the expected overnight rate on the rate announcement dates based on the adjusted consensus quarterly forecasts. Drawing on the average quarter-end view of the forecasters rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, and considering the eight dates on which rate announcements will take place, Figure 1 and Figure 2 display the daily expected overnight rate for and 2015, respectively: 3 Example of the Bank of Canada s Interest Rate Announcement Schedule for 2014: Note that February, May, August and November have no scheduled rate announcement. 4 January 2014, February 2014, and March 2014 are actual data. Page 2 de 8
3 FIGURE 1: 2014 Daily Forecast First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter 1/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /5/ /5/ /5/ /5/ /6/ /6/ /6/ /6/ /7/ /7/ /7/ /7/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /9/ /9/ /9/ /9/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /13/ /13/ /13/ /13/ /14/ /14/ /14/ /14/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /16/ /16/ /16/ /16/ /17/ /17/ /17/ /17/ /18/ /18/ /18/ /18/ /19/ /19/ /19/ /19/ /20/ /20/ /20/ /20/ /21/ /21/ /21/ /21/ /22/ /22/ /22/ /22/ /23/ /23/ /23/ /23/ /24/ /24/ /24/ /24/ /25/ /25/ /25/ /25/ /26/ /26/ /26/ /26/ /27/ /27/ /27/ /27/ /28/ /28/ /28/ /28/ /29/ /29/ /29/ /29/ /30/ /30/ /30/ /30/ /31/ /1/ /31/ /31/ /1/ /2/ /1/ /1/ /2/ /3/ /2/ /2/ /3/ /4/ /3/ /3/ /4/ /5/ /4/ /4/ /5/ /6/ /5/ /5/ /6/ /7/ /6/ /6/ /7/ /8/ /7/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /8/ /8/ /9/ /10/ /9/ /9/ /10/ /11/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /13/ /12/ /12/ /13/ /14/ /13/ /13/ /14/ /15/ /14/ /14/ /15/ /16/ /15/ /15/ /16/ /17/ /16/ /16/ /17/ /18/ /17/ /17/ /18/ /19/ /18/ /18/ /19/ /20/ /19/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /20/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /21/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /22/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /23/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /24/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /25/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /26/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /27/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /28/ /28/ /1/ /30/ /29/ /29/ /2/ /31/ /30/ /30/ /3/ /1/ /31/ /1/ /4/ /2/ /1/ /2/ /5/ /3/ /2/ /3/ /6/ /4/ /3/ /4/ /7/ /5/ /4/ /5/ /8/ /6/ /5/ /6/ /9/ /7/ /6/ /7/ /10/ /8/ /7/ /8/ /11/ /9/ /8/ /9/ /12/ /10/ /9/ /10/ /13/ /11/ /10/ /11/ /14/ /12/ /11/ /12/ /15/ /13/ /12/ /13/ /16/ /14/ /13/ /14/ /17/ /15/ /14/ /15/ /18/ /16/ /15/ /16/ /19/ /17/ /16/ /17/ /20/ /18/ /17/ /18/ /21/ /19/ /18/ /19/ /22/ /20/ /19/ /20/ /23/ /21/ /20/ /21/ /24/ /22/ /21/ /22/ /25/ /23/ /22/ /23/ /26/ /24/ /23/ /24/ /27/ /25/ /24/ /25/ /28/ /26/ /25/ /26/ /29/ /27/ /26/ /27/ /30/ /28/ /27/ /28/ /31/ /29/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /29/ /30/ /30/ /31/ Note: Yellow highlights indicate rate annoucement. Page 3 de 8
4 FIGURE 2: 2015 Daily Forecast First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter 1/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /5/ /5/ /5/ /5/ /6/ /6/ /6/ /6/ /7/ /7/ /7/ /7/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /9/ /9/ /9/ /9/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /13/ /13/ /13/ /13/ /14/ /14/ /14/ /14/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /16/ /16/ /16/ /16/ /17/ /17/ /17/ /17/ /18/ /18/ /18/ /18/ /19/ /19/ /19/ /19/ /20/ /20/ /20/ /20/ /21/ /21/ /21/ /21/ /22/ /22/ /22/ /22/ /23/ /23/ /23/ /23/ /24/ /24/ /24/ /24/ /25/ /25/ /25/ /25/ /26/ /26/ /26/ /26/ /27/ /27/ /27/ /27/ /28/ /28/ /28/ /28/ /29/ /29/ /29/ /29/ /30/ /30/ /30/ /30/ /31/ /1/ /31/ /31/ /1/ /2/ /1/ /1/ /2/ /3/ /2/ /2/ /3/ /4/ /3/ /3/ /4/ /5/ /4/ /4/ /5/ /6/ /5/ /5/ /6/ /7/ /6/ /6/ /7/ /8/ /7/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /8/ /8/ /9/ /10/ /9/ /9/ /10/ /11/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /13/ /12/ /12/ /13/ /14/ /13/ /13/ /14/ /15/ /14/ /14/ /15/ /16/ /15/ /15/ /16/ /17/ /16/ /16/ /17/ /18/ /17/ /17/ /18/ /19/ /18/ /18/ /19/ /20/ /19/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /20/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /21/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /22/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /23/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /24/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /25/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /26/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /27/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /28/ /28/ /1/ /30/ /29/ /29/ /2/ /31/ /30/ /30/ /3/ /1/ /31/ /1/ /4/ /2/ /1/ /2/ /5/ /3/ /2/ /3/ /6/ /4/ /3/ /4/ /7/ /5/ /4/ /5/ /8/ /6/ /5/ /6/ /9/ /7/ /6/ /7/ /10/ /8/ /7/ /8/ /11/ /9/ /8/ /9/ /12/ /10/ /9/ /10/ /13/ /11/ /10/ /11/ /14/ /12/ /11/ /12/ /15/ /13/ /12/ /13/ /16/ /14/ /13/ /14/ /17/ /15/ /14/ /15/ /18/ /16/ /15/ /16/ /19/ /17/ /16/ /17/ /20/ /18/ /17/ /18/ /21/ /19/ /18/ /19/ /22/ /20/ /19/ /20/ /23/ /21/ /20/ /21/ /24/ /22/ /21/ /22/ /25/ /23/ /22/ /23/ /26/ /24/ /23/ /24/ /27/ /25/ /24/ /25/ /28/ /26/ /25/ /26/ /29/ /27/ /26/ /27/ /30/ /28/ /27/ /28/ /31/ /29/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /29/ /30/ /30/ /31/ Note: Yellow highlights indicate rate annoucement dates assume 2014 rate annoucement schedule. Page 4 de 8
5 Daily projections of the overnight rate from Figure 1 and Figure 2 are rolled up to determine the monthly, quarterly and yearly averages in Figure 3. Please note that January 2014-March 2014 are actual data. FIGURE 3: Various Forecasts Month Monthly Ŧ * Quarterly* Yearly* (%) Quarter (%) Year (%) Jan Q Feb Q Mar Q Apr Q May Q Jun Q Jul Q Aug Q Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ŧ Red Italics indicate month in which no interest rate annoucement is scheduled. Dashed line (-----) indicates quarter-end. * Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly forecasts are averages of the daily rate, rounded to two decimal places. Prime Rate Differential Table 3 on the next page displays the recent historical relationship between the overnight rate and the prime rate data series extracted from Statistics Canada s CANSIM II database: Page 5 de 8
6 TABLE 3: Historical Prime Rate Differential col. 1 col. 2 col. 3 Prime Rate (%) Prime Rate - CANSIM II Series ID: v39079 CANSIM II Series ID: v col. 2 - col 1 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Page 6 de 8
7 Prime Rate Forecast From March 2010 to March 2014 there has been a consistent 200 basis point differential between the prime rate and the overnight rate. 5 Given the stability of this differential, it is reasonable to assume that this relationship will hold throughout the forecast period. Therefore, adding the 200 basis point differential to the overnight rate forecasts in Figure 3 results in the following prime rate forecasts. Please note that January 2014-March 2014 are actual data. FIGURE 4: Various Prime Rate Forecasts Monthly Quarterly Yearly Month Prime Rate (%) Quarter Prime Rate (%) Year Prime Rate (%) Jan Q Feb Q Mar Q Apr Q May Q Jun Q Jul Q Aug Q Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec With the exception of July 2010 when the differential increased to 225 basis points. Page 7 de 8
8 Overall The prime rate is the rate commercial banks charge on loans to their best customers. Financial institutions set their own prime rates based on the cost of short-term funds and based on the competitive pressures among them. A consensus view from financial institutions is used to forecast the prime rate. However, the prime rate is not widely forecasted, so an approach to arrive at a reasonable forecast of the prime rate is needed. Conveniently, the prime rate shares a consistent relationship with the Bank of Canada s overnight rate. The overnight rate is widely forecast and, through a consensus view of overnight rate expectations, a prime rate forecast can be generated. Forecasting of the overnight rate through a consensus approach requires consideration of the overnight rate setting mechanism used by the Bank of Canada. This process includes forecasting eight (8) interest rate announcements during a given year and ensuring that any expected interest rate change at those announcement dates is made in the order of 25 basis points. Finally, determining the consistent relationship between the reported prime rate and the overnight rate, and then applying this differential to the overnight rate forecast, yields the prime rate forecast. Page 8 de 8
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