Preliminary 2019 Load Forecast

Transcription

1 Preliminary 2019 Load Forecast Load Analysis Subcommittee November 27, 2018

2 Agenda 2019 Preliminary Load Forecast Review Summer Results Decomposition of Change Winter Results Decomposition of Change Adjustment Requests Next Steps 2

3 Model Parameters Estimation Period: January 1998 through August 2018 Weather Simulation: 1993 to 2017 (325 Scenarios) Economics: September 2018 vintage from Moody s Analytics Equipment Indices: Based on Itron s 2018 release Residential, Commercial, and Industrial weights from EIA 861 AWS Solar Addbacks & IHS Solar Forecast (zonal & peak allocation by PJM) Forecast Adjustments APS, BGE, COMED and Dominion 3

4 5 Year Average ( ): EIA 861 vs FERC FORM1 EIA 861 FERC FORM1 Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial AE 46% 45% 9% 46% 45% 9% AEP 35% 29% 36% 37% 27% 36% APS 38% 26% 36% 38% 26% 36% ATSI 33% 29% 38% 33% 29% 39% BGE 43% 53% 4% 43% 10% 47% COMED 31% 37% 32% 31% 37% 32% DAYTON 37% 36% 27% 80% 18% 2% DPL 42% 42% 16% 42% 42% 16% DQE 30% 48% 22% 30% 48% 22% DUKE 36% 40% 24% 39% 35% 26% EKPC 57% 14% 29% 55% 12% 32% JCPL 46% 44% 10% 46% 44% 11% METED 40% 22% 39% 40% 21% 39% PECO 36% 22% 41% 36% 22% 42% PENLC 32% 26% 42% 32% 26% 42% PEPCO 32% 66% 2% 32% 65% 2% PL 39% 39% 22% 39% 39% 22% PS 33% 58% 10% 33% 57% 10% RECO 49% 50% 1% 46% 53% 1% UGI 56% 33% 11% 56% 33% 11% VEPCO 38% 51% 11% 44% 44% 12% 4

5 EIA 861 vs FERC FORM1 Two notable differences EIA 861 provides guidance on what constitutes Residential, Commercial, and Industrial use EIA 861: The commercial sector includes nonmanufacturing business establishments such as FERC FORM1: Categorizes according to rate schedule EIA 861 provides Delivery-Only Service and Bundled Service breakouts versus FERC FORM1 provides breakout for Bundled customers but Delivery-Only customers get wrapped into Sales for Resale (which does not include classification breakout of ultimate customers) 5

6 Summer

7 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO Summer Peak Forecast 7

8 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO Summer Peak Forecast 8

9 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO 2022 Summer Peak Forecast Distribution 9

10 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO 2022 Summer Peak Comparison Preliminary 2019 Forecast vs 2018 Forecast 10

11 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO 2024 Summer Peak Comparison Preliminary 2019 Forecast vs 2018 Forecast 11

12 Decomposition of Change Explainer Forecast Decomposition contributions are computed by one-by-one changing the parameters that drive the forecast. The forecast descriptions below correspond with the decomposition chart. Parameter Description ECONOMICS EQUIPMENT INDEX WTHR SIM SOLAR FCST SOLAR CAP FACTOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ESTIMATION PERIOD 2018 Forecast September Economics September Equipment Index September Weather Simulation September Solar - BTM Forecast Impact September Solar - Capacity Factor Impact September Forecast Adjustments September Bringing in 2018 Loads* September Preliminary 2019 Forecast September *The process of "Bringing in 2018 Loads" is bringing in new metered load history, new addback history and re-estimation/extension of the solar back-cast history. 12

13 PRELIMINARY Summer 2022 Decomposition of Change 13

14 PRELIMINARY Summer 2024 Decomposition of Change 14

15 Winter

16 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO Winter Peak Forecast 16

17 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO Winter Peak Forecast 17

18 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO 2022 Winter Peak Forecast Distribution 18

19 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO 2022 Winter Peak Comparison Preliminary 2019 Forecast vs 2018 Forecast 19

20 PRELIMINARY - PJM RTO 2024 Winter Peak Comparison Preliminary 2019 Forecast vs 2018 Forecast 20

21 Decomposition of Change Explainer Forecast Decomposition contributions are computed by one-by-one changing the parameters that drive the forecast. The forecast descriptions below correspond with the decomposition chart. Parameter Description ECONOMICS EQUIPMENT INDEX WTHR SIM SOLAR FCST SOLAR CAP FACTOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ESTIMATION PERIOD 2018 Forecast September Economics September Equipment Index September Weather Simulation September Solar - BTM Forecast Impact September Solar - Capacity Factor Impact September Forecast Adjustments September Bringing in 2018 Loads* September Preliminary 2019 Forecast September *The process of "Bringing in 2018 Loads" is bringing in new metered load history, new addback history and re-estimation/extension of the solar back-cast history. 21

22 PRELIMINARY Winter 2022 Decomposition of Change 22

23 PRELIMINARY Winter 2024 Decomposition of Change 23

24 Forecast Drivers

25 PRELIMINARY PJM RTO Forecast - Economics Average annual growth rate is slightly slower in the 3-year and 5-year time horizon. 25

26 PRELIMINARY PJM RTO Forecast Cooling Equipment Index Index declines at virtually the same rate in the 3 and 5-year forecast horizon. Slightly faster declines over the 15 year horizon o -0.3% vs -0.2% average annual growth over

27 PRELIMINARY PJM RTO Forecast Heating Equipment Index Index declines at virtually the same rate in the 3 and 5-year forecast horizon. Slightly faster declines over the 15 year horizon o -1.1% vs -1% average annual growth over

28 PRELIMINARY PJM RTO Forecast Other Equipment Index Lower starting point owed largely to Residential Miscellaneous/Lighting and Commercial Lighting Faster forecast declines due largely to higher efficiency in Commercial Ventilation/Lighting and slightly more Residential fuel switching (i.e. gas appliance vs electric appliance) o -0.6% vs -0.4% average annual growth over

29 PRELIMINARY Solar Forecast Higher Capacity Factor 29

30 PRELIMINARY Forecast Adjustment - APS Adjustment made for frackingrelated load. Declining adjustment in out years reflects capped fracking load and rising embedded. *Additional details available in write-up with the meeting materials 30

31 PRELIMINARY Forecast Adjustment - BGE First time adjustment Made for conservation voltage reduction program *Additional details available in write-up with the meeting materials 31

32 PRELIMINARY Forecast Adjustment - COMED First time adjustment Made for conservation voltage reduction program *Additional details available in write-up with the meeting materials 32

33 PRELIMINARY Forecast Adjustment - Dominion Adjustment made for data center load. Total load associated with request was approximately 1000MW greater Declining adjustment in out years reflects capped data center load and rising embedded. *Additional details available in write-up with the meeting materials 33

34 Next Steps Review with Planning Committee (12/13/2018) Publish final report in late December Unrestricted Loads Spreadsheet Statistical Appendix Economic Variable and Equipment Index Data Moody s Analytics Economics Report Receive and analyze Peak Shaving Adjustment Requests Publish updated load forecast report in mid March