Recent Mortality Trends and Prospects: Hong Kong and Taiwan

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1 Recent Mortality Trends and Prospects: Hong Kong and Taiwan Edward Jow-ching Tu Wang Jian-Ping Division of Social Science HKUST, HKSAR, China

2 Introduction Current mortality in Hong Kong and Taiwan are quite low, and near the level of Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland. To examine the historical changes of the levels and rates of mortality in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and To project future mortality for Hong Kong and Taiwan.

3 Life expectancy at Birth in Taiwan Female Male

4 Life expectancy at Birth: HK and Taiwan, Female, Hong Kong Male, Hong Kong Female, Taiwan Male, Taiwan

5 Due to new birth registration system implemented in 1994, the infant mortality rates increased dramatically since The IMR were:

6 Life expectancy: e 65 HK and Taiwan, Male, Hong Kong Female, Hong Kong Female, Taiwan Male, Taiwan

7 Life expectancy: e 85 HK and Taiwan, Female, Hong Kong Male, Hong Kong Female, Taiwan Male, Taiwan

8 Probabilities of dying (q x ) Hong Kong,

9 Probabilities of dying (q x ) Taiwan,

10 Contribution of mortality changes at each age group to the total changes in e 0, Hong Kong,

11 Contribution of mortality changes at each age group to the total changes in e 0, Taiwan,

12 Mortality Trends in Taiwan, Number of deaths 130, , , ,000 Deaths and Death Rates, Taiwan Area, Death rate per 100,000 population ,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, years and over years old 0-64 years old Age-adjusted Death Rate Unadjusted death rates '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '

13 The Changes in Death Rates by Leading Causes of Deaths, , Taiwan Death Rate Percent Change, by Leading Cause, All causes of death Malignant neoplasms Cerebrovascular diseases Heart diseases Accidents and adverse effects Diabetes mellitus Chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis Pneumonia Suicide Bronchitis, emphysema and asthma %

14 The Changes in Male Death Rates by Leading Causes of Deaths, , Taiwan Death Rate Percent Change, for Male, by Leading Cause, All causes of death Malignant neoplasms Cerebrovascular diseases Accidents and adverse effects Heart diseases Diabetes mellitus Chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis Pneumonia Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis Suicide Tuberculosis %

15 The Changes in Female Death Rates by Leading Causes of Deaths, , Taiwan Death Rate Percent Change, for Female, by Leading Cause, All causes of death Malignant neoplasms Cerebrovascular diseases Diabetes mellitus Heart diseases Accidents and adverse effects Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis Chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis Pneumonia Suicide Hypertensive diseases %

16 The changes in Death Rates of Ages 65 and Older by Leading Causes, , Taiwan Death Rate Among Persons 65 Years Old and Over Percent Change, by Leading Cause, All causes Malignant neoplasms Cerebrovascular diseases Heart diseases Diabetes mellitus Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis Pneumonia Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis Chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis Hypertensive diseases Bronchitis, emphysema and asthma %

17 Death Rates of the Major Causes of Death of the Elderly by Sex in HK,

18 Proportionate Mortality of Major Causes of Death of the Elderly in HK,

19 Lee-Carter Model Lee and Carter (1992) proposed a simple ARIMA model to make a long-run probabilistic forecast for future mortality in the United States based on U.S. mortality of Decomposing the time series of age-specific mortality changes to two parts: the time component which is variant over time and the age component which is invariant over time. The equation:

20 Data Applying the instantaneous mortality rate at age x in year t, µ x (t), and To derive µ x (t) from official life tables (Hong Kong: , and Taiwan: ) The Coale-Guo method, incorporating an assumption of a steady decrease in mortality at old-ages, was employed to obtain the instantaneous mortality rates for ages

21 Fitted Model a x by sex 0-1 ax:hk-male ax:taiwan-male ax:hk-female ax:taiwan-female a x is an average of age-specific mortality rates on the logarithmic scale. It describes the major trend of age pattern of mortality

22 b x values bx:hk-male bx:hk-female bx:taiwan-male bx:taiwan-female

23 Modeling future k (t) k (t) can be modeled separately for each sex by ARIMA models. The best models for both sexes that fitted the data are ARIMA(0,1,0), HK - Male:k (t)-k (t-1)= ε(t) HK- Female:k (t)-k (t-1)= ε(t) Taiwan- Male:k (t)-k (t-1)= ε(t) Taiwan- Female:k (t)-k (t-1)= ε(t)

24 Forecasted k (t) by sex and 95% percent confidence interval: Hong Kong Female Male

25 Forecasted k (t) by sex and 95% percent confidence interval: Taiwan Female Male

26 Forecasted e 0 by sex and 95% percent confidence intervals Hong Kong, Female Taiwan, Female Hong Kong, Male Taiwan, Male

27 Forecasted e 65 by sex and 95% percent confidence intervals Hong Kong, Female Taiwan, Female Taiwan, Male Hong Kong, Male

28 Forecasted e 85 by sex and 95% percent confidence intervals Hong Kong, Female Taiwan, Female Hong Kong, Male Taiwan, Male

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