9-1 RUN IN RATING 5 KEY SELECTIONS 9-1 RUN IN NFL TOTALS THE PAST FIVE WEEKS

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1 THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVI Issue 20 December 12, 2016 $ RUN IN RATING 5 KEY SELECTIONS 9-1 RUN IN NFL TOTALS THE PAST FIVE WEEKS NFL CLOSE CALLS Week 14 Kansas City Chiefs (-3½) 21, Oakland Raiders 13 (46): After a 3-0 first quarter, the pace in Thursday s AFC West clash turned sharply as the Chiefs scored three consecutive touchdowns including a 78-yard punt return score. An Oakland touchdown just before halftime put the score at 21-10, well on the way to eclipsing the total. Oakland managed a field goal early in the third quarter and had the ball back in the red zone minutes later with a second straight Chiefs turnover to start the half. A field goal attempt was botched as the Chiefs held the eight-point advantage. Seven consecutive drives ended in punts as those on the over watched in disgust. The underdog Raiders had a great opportunity to cover with a chance to force overtime late facing 4th-and-1 from the Kansas City 14-yard line with two minutes to go but a false start made it 4th-and-6 and the final pass fell incomplete as the Chiefs and the under held. Tennessee Titans (-2) 13, Denver Broncos 10 (44): The Titans took a 13-0 lead by halftime and kept Denver off the board for the first 50 minutes despite the Broncos posting some production in the air. A big punt return with a penalty tacked on gave the Broncos a spark and needing only 26 yards Denver scored a fourth quarter touchdown to climb to within six points. A marginal punt on Tennessee s next drive gave the Broncos good field position again and Denver added a field goal to get even closer to a spread that closed at +2 for the defending Super Bowl champions. Tennessee picked up a few first downs to shift field position and pinned the Broncos at the 2-yard line with just over two minutes to go. The Broncos had a successful drive and had picked up another first down but A.J. Derby fumbled after a 12-yard gain to approach midfield as the Titans held on for a narrow win and cover in a game that could have a big impact on the AFC playoff picture. Carolina Panthers (-1) 28, San Diego Chargers 16 (48½): The Panthers stormed out to a 23-0 lead in this game and with 30 points between these teams by halftime the over pace was promising. That didn t change in the third quarter with 12 more points added as San Diego stayed in the game with late third quarter touchdown to trail after failing going for two to get within one score. One more touchdown would have sealed the over on the closing number and at least reached a push for many but after getting an interception to start at the San Diego 24-yard line the Panthers failed in an opportunity to put the game away as Cam Newton threw an interception in the end zone. Initially Trovon Reed took the interception the other way for a 100-yard score but on review he was ruled down at the 3-yard line. The Chargers wound up taking a safety to keep the total under and neither team scored again. Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) 27, Buffalo Bills 20 (45½): The Steelers led 21-7 through three quarters and added a field goal early in the fourth quarter. Buffalo struck a 40-yard pass play to get within 11, missing on the extra-point in a play that eventually loomed large for those on a total that was as high as 47½ early in the week before sliding to 45½ by game time. Pittsburgh went back up by 14 with a field goal with about four minutes to go in the game on a day where they had big yardage numbers but also three turnovers. Buffalo would score with 1:25 to go to get within seven though and while they failed to recover the on-side kick attempt the late touchdown did change the over/under result for many. Miami Dolphins (+2) 26, Arizona Cardinals 23 (44½): The Dolphins took a 21-9 lead early in the third quarter but with no scoring in the next 18 minutes the under pace seemed to hold. A wild fourth quarter was in store as with about seven minutes to go Arizona scored a touchdown to briefly close to within six points. The extra-point attempt was blocked and returned for two points for Miami to put the Dolphins up eight and the total at 38 instead of 36 or 37 as the over was within a touchdown. Ryan Tannehill would get injured shortly after that and Arizona took a punt return to midfield, eventually setting up a touchdown with about three minutes to go. Down two all involved on the side or the total had a lot at stake with the two-point conversion which was successful to tie the game. Both teams were held to 3-and-outs as overtime looked likely with Miami getting the ball back with just over a minute to go behind veteran back-up Matt Moore, though in good field position after their own solid punt return. Two solid gains to Kenny Stills put the Dolphins in the red zone and Miami kicked a field goal as time expired to hold on to the outright underdog win with the over also cashing with 19 fourth quarter points. Detroit Lions (-7) 20, Chicago Bears 17 (42): The Lions led 13-3 late in the third quarter but Chicago delivered a 75-yard touchdown drive in just four plays to get within three points. Halfway through the fourth quarter the Bears looked like a serious upset threat with an interception returned for a touchdown for a advantage that all but locked up the underdog cover. With an injured hand Matthew Stafford led a touchdown drive in a potential season-saving score with a scramble into the end zone to put Detroit in front. Chicago reached Detroit territory continue at Between the Lines... Just over a week after an extension was announced for Jeff Fisher the Rams have parted ways with its coach with three games remaining in the return season in Los Angeles. A record in nearly five seasons certainly warranted a possible move but the timing is rather bizarre with the team having to play Thursday night this week. Fisher s critical comments of the front office had to have played a role and the direction of the team certainly has a lot of questions with great struggles for #1 pick Jared Goff the last two weeks and a great decline of a talent-rich defense. The Rams were once 3-1 and this certainly was a year of opportunity in the NFC West with every team falling short of expectations this season. The opening will be an attractive opportunity for the top coaching candidates with enthusiasm behind the team back in Los Angeles, great fan and corporate support and some promising young talent on the roster as well as a favorable draft position and a new stadium on the way. Arizona s offense looks ready for a re-build and San Francisco still feels far away from being a contender as whoever lands the leadership role could deliver a successful first season next year. There will likely be a few other coaching changes around the league in the final three weeks of the regular season and it is easy to see why with several franchises having great success in first or second years under new head coaches. In the NFC South Atlanta and Tampa Bay are both in playoff position with coaching changes in the past two seasons while the Giants are also a NFC contender with first year head coach Ben McAdoo. Jack Del Rio has delivered great success for the Raiders in just two seasons while the Titans and Dolphins are in the playoff mix as well as after making changes last season as a fresh start can be effective though making several changes in succession like Cleveland and San Francisco have done can prove disastrous. A big storyline in the college ranks is the surprising move of Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin taking over the Florida Atlantic program. Kiffin was a rising star in the coaching ranks leading the Oakland Raiders, Tennessee, and USC before a fallout but he had successfully built back his credibility with a great run with the Crimson Tide. Given that there are three Nick Saban assistants now with SEC head coaching positions there may be more to the story. Kiffin s contract was set to expire and it seems certain that it would not be renewed. He ll be taking a pay cut and it is a surprising move with little upside potential for the 41-year old who was rumored to be being courted by Ed Orgeron to lead the LSU offense as well as having options to return to the NFL as an assistant. Given that Kiffin s last four coaching positions haven t lasted more than four seasons it may be a short stop in Boca Raton but the program will certainly get a bit of a boost from the high-profile hire. Quarterback injuries take the headlines after Week 14 with Ryan Tannehill suffering a potentially devastating knee injury for a Dolphins team that is right in the middle of the AFC wild card picture. Tannehill certainly hasn t posted amazing results as Miami has relied on its defense and running game but with little margin for error in three remaining games it could be a season-changer in a positive first season for Adam Gase in Miami. The Dolphins have division road games at New York and Buffalo the next two Saturdays and the finale in New England might not be that important for the Patriots as a playoff path is still possible. Matthew Stafford s injury in Detroit looks less serious with ligament damage in his finger as he is expected to continue to play with a special glove. That could be an adjustment as the 9-4 Lions try to hold on to the NFC North lead. The closing schedule is grueling with road games in New York and Dallas before a home finale with the Packers. 9-4 could turn to 9-7 quickly for a team that has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season but the Lions are 3-2 in the division and in a potentially commanding tiebreaker position especially with Minnesota and Green Bay playing each other in Week 16. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. 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2 NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS RATING 5 ARKANSAS STATE (+5½) over Central Florida RATING 4 TULSA (-11½) over Central Michigan RATING 3 HOUSTON (-3) over San Diego State RATING 2 WYOMING (+8½) over Byu RATING 1 MIAMI, OH (+13) over Mississippi State ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2016 NEW MEXICO BOWL At University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico NEW MEXICO (-7) Texas San Antonio (63) After a slow start to the season New Mexico wound up 6-2 in Mountain West play to tie for the Mountain division title. Despite the 6-2 league record the Lobos outscored foes by just six points in those eight games combined as both losses came by double-digits and only one league win came by more than nine points, with that win coming ironically against Wyoming the team that represented the division in the MWC championship game. New Mexico is hosting bowl action for the second straight season after a loss to Arizona last season to open the bowl season. This will be the first ever bowl appearance for Texas San Antonio as in his first season Frank Wilson s squad went from 3-9 to 6-6, going 5-3 in Conference USA for a second place finish in the West division. The Roadrunners lost 21-9 hosting New Mexico two seasons ago playing as a -16½-point favorite to illustrate the turnaround Bob Davie has produced for the Lobos. UTSA won 21-3 as a small underdog in this stadium in 2013 in the program s first game as a full FBS level team. Three UTSA conference wins came against bowl teams though the big win at Middle Tennessee State came in the game that quarterback Brent Stockstill was injured in. The Roadrunners also have commendable losses on the resume with a nine-point loss at Colorado State, a four-point loss hosting Arizona State, and a 13-point loss at Texas A&M. In contrast New Mexico lost to New Mexico State and Rutgers in the non-conference season but closed the year winning six of the final seven games with big scoring results. Stopping the run will be the key for the Roadrunners with mostly average results this season allowing 4.4 yards per carry. This bowl game has favored the underdog but it has usually been a mediocre Pac-12 school forced into early bowl action against a quality Mountain West team as the scenario is different in this year s matchup with the hosting Lobos solid chalk. The comparison game is the matchup at Colorado State where UTSA was +8 and lost by nine in a game where both offenses were limited. New Mexico s rushing attack leads the nation in several categories but UTSA also has a formidable rushing attack and has potential on defense. New Mexico could pick up its second bowl win since 61 but it won t come easily. NM BY 4 LAS VEGAS BOWL At Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada Houston (-3) San Diego State (54½) 2:30 PM It has certainly been a memorable season for Houston scoring a pair of upsets over then-top-5 AP poll teams with wins over Oklahoma and Louisville. The Cougars wound up losing three AAC road games however and now move forward without well regarded head coach Tom Herman who in two years went 22-4 with several high profile victories before signing on at Texas. Offensive Coordinator Major Applewhite was retained as the new head coach which should sit well with the players in keeping continuity for the program through Defensive Coordinator Todd Orlando is in a bit of an awkward spot, originally named the interim coach and also interviewing. San Diego State s early promise as a top Group of 5 contender also fizzled with late season losses but the Aztecs still came away with the Mountain West title. Donnel Pumphrey is set to finish as the FBS all-time leading rusher (albeit with extra games) currently 107 yards short of Ron Dayne s total. San Diego State had a dominant bowl victory over an AAC team with a 42-7 win over Cincinnati last season in the Hawai i Bowl though Rocky Long is just 3-7 S/U in bowl games in career. Both teams had outstanding run defense numbers on the season and while the statistics paint an edge for the Aztecs, Houston s schedule was dramatically more difficult as San Diego State was favored by at least -4½ in every single game. Injuries on defense have added up for San Diego State down the stretch allowing 121 points the past three games after allowing just 42 points in a 6-0 start in the MWC play. With a 1-6 ATS slide and the coaching questions a Houston squad with high ceiling potential is only a slight favorite. Motivation questions exist for both teams in a minor bowl game when aspirations were much higher most of the season. Houston has struggled away from home but in the biggest tests this season the Cougars have risen to the challenge. The Mountain West has lost S/U and ATS in the past three Las Vegas Bowls and Houston has the talent to deliver a strong closing performance in a great season. HOUSTON BY 10 CURE BOWL At Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida Central Florida (-5½) Arkansas State (49) 4:30 PM After a 0-12 season Central Florida turned in a huge turnaround under Scott Frost in his first season in Orlando. The Knights aren t technically at home today but they are in their hometown just 20 miles away. Central Florida scored five defensive touchdowns and two special teams touchdowns this season for some huge breaks along the way in a 6-6 campaign that featured UCF out-gained in all eight AAC games despite winning half of those contests. The turnaround for Arkansas State came during the season with an ugly 0-4 start, hitting rock bottom with a loss to FCS Central Arkansas at home. Arkansas State won seven of the final 10 to claim a share of the Sun Belt title tied with Appalachian State. The yardage production is similar for these squads but the Knights deserve credit for competitive showings this season in narrow losses against the top AAC squads while also taking on two Big Ten squads in the schedule. Arkansas State has been crushed in bowl action the past two seasons with this is a sixth consecutive bowl game for the Red Wolves but with third year head coach Blake Anderson still seeking his first postseason win. Sun Belt teams are 2-5 ATS in bowl games the past two seasons while at this point the AAC has looked like a high quality conference this season and a league that can often be undervalued in the bowl season often matched up against higher profile major conference teams. Ultimately the suspect numbers and good fortune presents red flags for the Knights while Arkansas State looks poised to be a team ready to deliver a bowl win. While this game will be close to home there won t be huge fanfare for this minor bowl slot. ARKANSAS STATE BY 6 CAMELLIA BOWL At Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama Toledo (-1) Appalachian State (58) 4:30 PM Scott Satterfield has gone 20-5 the past two seasons at Appalachian State as the Mountaineers claimed a share of the Sun Belt title, even with a late season loss at Troy. The Mountaineers nearly knocked off Tennessee early in the season and last season Appalachian State won this bowl game over Ohio in the bowl debut for the program. The Mountaineers did fail to cover in that game favored by -7½ and this year s matchup looks more challenging with Toledo featuring a lot of potential. The Rockets went through a coaching change but maintained a high level of success under Jason Candle going 9-3. Toledo once again fell just short of a division title maintaining a consistent stretch of runner-up status much of the last decade in the tough MAC West. The Rockets crushed Sun Belt co-champion Arkansas State to start the season with a result, winning that matchup for a third straight season though the Red Wolves clearly improved as the season went on this year. Toledo had losses by two and six points before losing by 20 vs. Western Michigan in the big finale for the division title and the Rockets are 2-0 in bowl games the past two seasons with double-digit victories. The defensive numbers for Appalachian State are dominant, allowing just 4.9 yards per play with great numbers against the run and the pass as Toledo s prolific offense will provide a great test. In a closely-lined game turnovers could be the difference with Appalachian State finishing +8 on the season in turnover margin while Toledo was -4 with the Mountaineers only having two negative turnover games all season and at just -1. Appalachian State only averaged 29 points per game however and that generally won t be enough against Toledo. TOLEDO BY 4 NEW ORLEANS BOWL At Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana Southern Miss (-3½) UL-Lafayette (58) 8:00 PM The Golden Eagles fell from 9-5 to just 6-6 in the first season under Jay Hopson as it was a disappointing season with injuries taking a toll. Nick Mullens returned at quarterback for the finale at the Golden Eagles beat Louisiana Tech. The production was strong but Southern Miss lost five games in which they were out-gained this season with a -14 turnover margin a big factor as the Golden Eagles only won the turnover battle twice all season. Wins the final two weeks earned a bowl bid for Louisiana-Lafayette, back in the postseason at 6-6 after missing out last season. The Ragin Cajuns won the New Orleans Bowl four straight seasons with good attendance including nearly 55,000 in the Superdome in 2013 s win over Tulane. Former LSU quarterback Anthony Jennings led UL-L with marginal passing numbers as the improved last season results were mainly spearheaded by the defense. These teams are only about 200 miles apart, roughly equidistant to New Orleans as support should be strong on both sides in the first meeting since 2008 in a matchup of teams that used to meet annually. UL-L was a +16 underdog against a fairly similar Conference USA Louisiana Tech squad last season but with Southern Miss ATS this season including 1-7 the last eight this number is a bit depressed. Mullens played fantastic in the finale and the indoor track should suit this offense well. The track record for the Ragin Cajuns in this game is noteworthy and Southern Miss has underachieved all season long and the team isn t likely to put it together in a bowl game that means more to the underdog that will have more local support. UL-LAFAYETTE BY 1

3 MONDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2016 MIAMI BEACH BOWL At Marlins Park in Miami, Florida Tulsa (-11½) Central Michigan (68) 1:30 PM Tulsa scored 343 points in going 6-2 in AAC games, finishing second to Navy in scoring and record in the AAC West as the Golden Hurricane scored more points in AAC play than Memphis, Houston, or South Florida. Tulsa covered in six of the final seven games of the season as Philip Montgomery has delivered back-to-back bowl seasons in his first two seasons at Tulsa. The Hurricane doesn t have a great defense but there was improvement this season and Tulsa was only out-gained twice this season, at Ohio State and at Houston. In the second week of the season Central Michigan upset Oklahoma State for a massive win that put the Chippewas in position to challenge in the MAC West again after being part of a four-way tie on top of the division last season. It wound up being a tough season with a 3-5 MAC campaign for a program that has generally been among the conference s best in the past two decades. Central Michigan lost four of five while being out-gained in four of five games down the stretch and only two of the losses came against winning teams. John Bonamego is also a second year coach and with a bowl win he can match last season s 7-6 campaign though the program last won a bowl game in Senior quarterback Cooper Rush had a bit of a step-back season but the biggest issue for Central Michigan has been a significant decline defensively compared with last season. That isn t an ideal weakness in this matchup and a marginal running game makes Central Michigan a less appealing heavy underdog. TULSA BY 21 TUESDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2016 BOCA RATON BOWL At FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida Western Kentucky (-5) Memphis (78) 6:00 PM Most thought Western Kentucky might slide this season after completing a perfect campaign in Conference USA but losing a lot of key veterans on both sides of the ball. The Hilltoppers wound up 10-3 with a second straight conference title and three strong seasons with a record made head coach Jeff Brohm a very attractive candidate and he has landed at Purdue. Defensive coordinator Nick Holt will lead the team in this bowl game but there is uncertainty ahead for the players and staff as it seems unlikely the spot moving forward will be filled until after this game. Despite very little experience Mike White threw 34 touchdowns against just six interceptions this season and the Hiltoppers had much more balance this season with a rushing attack that produced 5.3 yards per rush led by huge numbers from senior Anthony Wales. Western Kentucky maintained steady defensive numbers but still got caught in several shootouts which looks like the likely scenario for this bowl game. Similar to Western Kentucky Memphis was pegged for a step-back season losing head coach Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech and quarterback Paxton Lynch to the Denver Broncos. With a bowl win Memphis can match last season s 9-4 record as the Tigers competed well in a strong AAC including being the only team to be the eventual champion Temple while also beating Houston in the season finale. The statistics do paint a clear edge for the Hilltoppers who may be a bit undervalued given the coaching situation and Memphis didn t handle shootouts well with a 1-4 record when allowing 35+ with Western Kentucky scoring 45 points per game on average, 2nd nationally. WKU BY 7 WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2016 POINSETTIA BOWL At Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California Byu (-8½) Wyoming (56½) 8:00 PM These teams met regularly as Mountain West foes before BYU departed with the Cougars winning the past seven meetings with only one missed cover. BYU closed the season with wins in seven of the final eight games though it was a front-loaded slate. Four BYU losses came by a combined total of only eight points but BYU also had three very narrow wins and only finished with one win over a bowl team, a three-point win over Toledo. A schedule with Arizona, UCLA, Michigan State, Mississippi State, and Cincinnati sounded impressive before the season but that wound up as a collection of some of the nation s most disappointing teams. Wyoming s relentless rushing attack made big waves in the Mountain West as the Cowboys had a huge turnaround season, losing in the conference championship but picking up big regular season wins over Boise State and San Diego State. Those upset wins came at home as Wyoming won just twice away from home on the season. BYU s defense allowed a full yard per play fewer than Wyoming this season but Wyoming was a much more consistently productive offensive team. Both teams had tight games with Boise State with BYU actually outgained by almost 250 yards in that matchup while Wyoming had a yardage edge and the result vs. Utah State was similar in a matchup of common foes as these teams might not be that far apart. BYU seemed to play exclusively close games and Wyoming went 6-1 ATS when dogged. BYU BY 3 THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016 FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL At Albertson s Stadium in Boise, Idaho Colorado State (-13½) Idaho (64) 6:00 PM The Vandals turned in an 8-4 campaign for the team s first winning season since 2009 when they wound up with an 8-5 record after a bowl win in Boise in the then Humanitarian Bowl as in the program s now three bowl appearances they haven t left the state. This has been a dangerous bowl game for warm weather squads with notable cases of Miami, Georgia Tech, and Fresno State struggling in this game but Colorado State won t fall into that camp. The Rams won four of their final five games to claim at least a second-straight seven-win season for Mike Bobo in two years in Fort Collins. Last season the Rams lost in the Arizona Bowl. The Rams used their rushing attack to lead dominant wins in the final two games in putting up 112 points vs. New Mexico and San Diego State. A big ground edge looks likely for Colorado State in this matchup as Idaho is more pass-oriented though the Colorado State run defense has struggled with the rush-leaning of most MWC teams certainly a big factor. Double-digit bowl underdogs used to be a strong proposition in the bowl season but that has not been the case lately with a firm losing record since 2010 with those teams going 1-5 ATS the past two bowl seasons. Idaho had three three-point wins this season for some fortunate breaks and they lost by 18 and 21 in the games vs. the top two Sun Belt teams they faced. The Vandals did beat UNLV from the MWC but it was an overtime win while being out-gained by 161 yards while Colorado State won convincingly in that matchup. COLORADO STATE BY 17 FRIDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2016 BAHAMAS BOWL At Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas Eastern Michigan (-4) Old Dominion (64) While this early start bowl game might not grab a lot of national attention it seems likely that these teams will be excited to be in this game. This is the first ever bowl game for Old Dominion who is in just its third season at the FBS level. This is also a breakthrough for Eastern Michigan, clearly one of the worst programs in the nation the last decade and last in a bowl game in Both teams also have to be thrilled with a trip to the Bahamas given alternatives in less appealing parts of the country this time of the year. This bowl game has been an exciting high scoring game the past two seasons with the MAC and Conference USA splitting the first two Bahamas Bowls. Eastern Michigan wound up beating three bowl teams and the losses vs. the top MAC teams were competitive including giving champion Western Michigan one of its closest games. The Monarchs had a perfect home record and far less impressive road results this season as the slight statistical edge on both sides of the ball is less pronounced when the home results are taken away with Eastern Michigan 4-1 S/U and 5-0 ATS in the past five road games with the only poor showing in September at Missouri. Old Dominion quarterback David Washington appears on track to play after being injured in the team s final game and he quietly posted great numbers with 28 touchdowns vs. only four interceptions. Eastern Michigan had to change quarterbacks mid-season with junior Brogan Roback having a strong season as the team s starter in the entire MAC season, providing far fewer turnovers and a solid rushing threat as well. This line isn t where it powers to but trust the oddsmakers in flipping the favorite. EM BY 7 ARMED FORCES BOWL At Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas Louisiana Tech (-3½) Navy (66) 3:30 PM A promising Navy season soured in December with a loss to Temple in the AAC championship and then a loss to rival Army for the first time in more than a decade. An injury to quarterback Will Worth can be pointed to as a big factor as pressed into action sophomore Zach Abbey has struggled with four interceptions leading a greatly diminished option attack. Navy has won its last three bowl games including winning this game in Since 2003 Navy is 8-3 ATS in bowl games but Louisiana Tech has also been a successful postseason team going 4-0 ATS in four bowl games since 2008 including convincing wins the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are also riding a twogame losing streak a loss in the regular season finale and a loss to Western Kentucky in the Conference USA championship, getting out-gained by more than 300 yards combined in those games. Navy swept a home-and-home series in 2009 and 2010 between these teams and this is a run vs. pass matchup of highly productive offenses with vastly different philosophies. Both defenses have struggled but Navy s pass defense was very respectable and Louisiana Tech wound up with a surprisingly strong run defense allowing just 3.7 yards per rush though the schedules have played a role in those defensive strengths. Senior quarterback Ryan Higgins was among the most productive in the nation this season despite only playing 11 games but five of his eight interceptions came in the final month. Value is with Navy following two disappointing performances and a lack of trust in Abbey but it has taken good passing teams to beat the Bulldogs. LA TECH BY 6

4 DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL At Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama Troy (-4) Ohio (49) 7:00 PM In a great turnaround season Troy should have some support about a two and a half hour drive from campus to Mobile. A perennial bowl team as a Sun Belt power in the 2000s this will be Troy s first bowl game since 2010 when they beat Ohio as a slight favorite in the New Orleans Bowl. Frank Solich had his Bobcats team ready to play in very competitive MAC championship performance vs. undefeated Western Michigan but Ohio is now 0-4 in those title game tries. Ohio has lost its last two bowl appearances but it 3-1 ATS in the last four postseason trips, losing just as an underdog vs. the Sun Belt s Appalachian State last season in the Camellia Bowl. For years Ohio s formula has been successful, playing sound defense and running the ball consistently as the Bobcats rarely have flashy numbers but often have success particularly in the underdog role. Troy rates a bit stronger statistically on both sides of the ball but losses in two of the final three games cost the Trojans a conference title. Ohio has lost the turnover battle in five of its last seven games and quarterback Greg Windham had mixed results returning for the MAC title game after missing most of the previous five games for the team. Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers had 14 touchdowns in the first half of the season before throwing just four in his final four games and interceptions were an issue in two of the team s three losses. Both teams played major conference powers tough in September and a close game should be expected. TROY BY 3 SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2016 HAWAI I BOWL At Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawai i Middle Tennessee State (NL) HAWAI I 7:00 PM The quarterback situation for Middle Tennessee State may keep this line off the board until close to game time. Sophomore Brent Stockstill had big numbers this season but he missed the final three games. Freshman John Urzua had mixed results in relief throwing seven interceptions in four games as the Blue Raiders continued to run an aggressive passing attack. Urzua left the team s finale with a concussion and his status isn t clear either. The team had two wide receivers and a running back complete passes in their last game. Hawai i wasn t technically bowl eligible but getting to 6-7 put the Warriors in line to fill the opening to host this game for the first time since In his first season coaching Hawai i Nick Rolovich did bring some improvement though with some ups-and-downs and inconsistent efforts this season. The shift to sophomore Dru Brown at quarterback provided a big boost with solid passing and rushing results. Four of six wins for Hawai i came by six or fewer points including vs. less than impressive competition and the Warriors still had five losses by at least 19 points on the season. Middle Tennessee State also had four wins by seven or fewer points with a few narrow escapes vs. losing teams as the wild win over Louisiana Tech was the only real quality victory. Hawai i certainly falls short in a statistical comparison with the Bulldogs but both defenses are suspect and the Warriors should have a shot to hang around in this game with some positive late season momentum. Given that Middle Tennessee State has allowed over 42 points per game on average the past seven games the Blue Raiders will be tough to lay points with even if healthy. MTSU BY 3 MONDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2016 ST. PETERSBURG BOWL At Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida MISSISSIPPI STATE (-13) Miami, OH (58½) 10:00 AM Despite a disappointing 5-7 season Mississippi State still claimed an open bowl slot and the Bulldogs do have quality wins over South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Mississippi but also a loss to South Alabama to open the season. Miami incredibly completed a run from 0-6 to 6-6 to earn this spot. The return of quarterback Gus Ragland provided the spark incredibly throwing 15 touchdown passes with no interceptions while going 6-0. The Redhawks didn t play a very difficult MAC schedule but they did beat two bowl teams while featuring an opportunistic defense that was successful against the run. This will be a much tougher matchup for the Redhawks with Mississippi State rushing for 5.6 yards per carry this season. The Bulldogs struggled defensively much of the season with big yardage deficits in many of the SEC games. Competitive showings by South Alabama and Samford against Mississippi State should give the heavy underdog hope. Miami s offensive line did fall apart a bit late in the season with injuries which may be a concern in this matchup going against a major conference school with size and depth edges. Under Dan Mullen the Bulldogs have had inconsistent results alternating lopsided wins and losses the past four years. Mullen has been involved in some coaching rumors and this bowl draw isn t likely to bring out the best in the Bulldogs even with some matchup advantages possible. Miami won in its last bowl appearance after the 2010 season and the team and program should be excited for this opportunity to take a shot at a SEC squad. Miami has a shot to stay close. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 7 QUICK LANE BOWL At Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan Maryland (-1) Boston College (43½) 1:30 PM A trip to Detroit in late December isn t the dream scenario for most major conference squads but both teams have to have some enthusiasm for a postseason spot in this year s Quick Lane Bowl. Boston College didn t win an ACC game last season in a miserable season before taking a step forward with a 6-6 campaign though still a last place finish in the tough ACC Atlantic. In his first season at Maryland D.J. Durkin kept Maryland in the postseason through a tough Big Ten East though both of these teams suffered lopsided losses vs. top competition this season. These teams have some history as former ACC foes from 2005 to 2013 with Boston College winning and covering in each of the past three meetings. Maryland had much better numbers in the games where senior quarterback Perry Hills was able to play the whole game as the offense has some potential. Boston College was led by its defense allowing just 310 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play but the Eagles were soundly out-gained and out-scored on the season despite the 6-6 finish including a FCS win. Maryland was held to 14 or fewer points five times this season but they averaged 38 points per game when Hills had at least 10 pass attempts including their best Big Ten performances. Six times this season Boston College failed to top 17 points and against the four best ACC teams they faced they lost by a combined score of Similarly Maryland lost by a combined score of against the top three Big Ten East teams. Mike Knoll was a very consistent kicker for Boston College which is critical for team that needs to make the most of its scoring chances, featuring only one missed field goal on the season. Ultimately siding with defense might be the path to success in this game with Patrick Towles capable of managing a solid game for the Eagles. Hills certainly would have had much worse numbers had he not missed the toughest games for Maryland and the Terrapins don t look worthy of favoritism in this matchup. BOSTON COLLEGE BY 3 INDEPENDENCE BOWL At Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana NC State (-4½) Vanderbilt (44) 4:00 PM Both of these schools had prominent wins as underdogs to earn this spot with NC State beating North Carolina and Vanderbilt beating Tennessee in rivalry finales. The Commodores wound up scoring and allowing 162 points in SEC play despite a 3-5 record with four conference losses by seven or fewer points. Vanderbilt also beat two of the best Conference USA teams with wins over high scoring Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky as it was a difficult schedule. NC State has used a soft non-conference schedule to keep getting to bowl games and this year the Wolfpack wound up losing to East Carolina. They did beat Notre Dame for a marquee nonconference win and narrow losses to both Clemson and Florida State deserves credit. Many felt Dave Doeren needed to win the finale in Chapel Hill to keep his job and the Wolfpack got the job done though it has been mostly a mediocre run for the program. NC State actually has solid per play edges on both sides of the ball in this matchup and there is a big disparity in the run defense numbers between these teams. Neither teams had great success rushing on offense this season but having the opportunity to run the ball would provide a big boost to the offensive potential on either side. Vanderbilt won in a 2012 bowl meeting between these schools but that was a bizarre game as NC State had 199 more offensive yards but five turnovers as Bachelorette star Jordan Rodgers bested NFL-draftee Mike Glennon. These teams have fairly similar profiles with both teams falling short in competitive efforts vs. quality teams. NC State may deserve more credit for battling in a very strong ACC Atlantic compared with a rather weak SEC East. A concern is a possible concussion for NC State quarterback Ryan Finley but he is expected to be ready to go with almost a month since the team s last game with the Boise State transfer having a nice season that far out-paced what Kyle Shurmur did for the Commodores. NC ST BY 7 NFL THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016 SEATTLE (-14) Los Angeles (39) 7:25 PM Russell Wilson has had one of the lowest interceptions rates in the league in now nearly five full seasons but he had five last week in an ugly return to the state of Wisconsin as Seattle lost The Seahawks still hold the biggest division lead in the NFL with a win in any of the remaining three games good enough for the title but a protected #2 seed position was surrendered to Detroit for the moment. The Rams have lost eight of the last nine games and a once promising defense has allowed 117 points the past three weeks. After okay results in his first two starts rookie Jared Goff has had back-to-back awful games and the Rams can t run the ball. The Rams beat Seattle 9-3 in Week 2 in the first game back in Los Angeles. Seattle hasn t lost consecutive games all season while going 6-0 S/U at home with convincing covers in the past two home dates. Seattle has had some trouble in this series with a 2-7 ATS run and S/U losses in four of the last five but the Seahawks are 4-0 ATS the past two seasons laying -13 or more points. Look for a bounce back showing even at an inflated price. SEAHAWKS BY 17

5 NFL KEY SELECTIONS RATING 5 OAKLAND (-3) over San Diego RATING 4 INDIANAPOLIS (+4) over Minnesota RATING 3 NEW ORLEANS (+2½) over Arizona RATING 2 MIAMI (-2½) over NY Jets RATING 1 HOUSTON (-6) over Jacksonville ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE The Thursday game is posted on the previous page, the Monday game is on the next page. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2016 Miami (-2½) NY JETS (38½) 7:25 PM The Dolphins scored a huge win over Arizona last week in a wild finish but it came at a potentially season-changing cost with Ryan Tannehill possibly out for the season. Veteran Matt Moore led the game-winning drive in the final two minutes and right now Miami is the first team out of the AFC playoffs, losing the tiebreaker with Denver for the final wild card spot. This is the ninth year in the league for Moore but even counting last week s action he has just 16 passing attempts since 2013 and he hasn t started since 2012, with his last start being a win over the Jets. New York has dominated the series history but Miami won at home in Week 9 with a kickoff return touchdown the game-winning score. Bryce Petty had an adequate outing in leading to a win last week but the Jets are 1-5 at home. DOLPHINS BY 6 SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2016 DALLAS (-7) Tampa Bay (46½) 7:30 PM The Buccaneers are currently 20:1 to win the NFC (compared to 2:1 for Dallas) and while there are still significant hurdles to secure a playoff spot this has certainly looked like one of the most complete teams in the NFL in the past month. The five-game winning streak has featured the Buccaneers allowing fewer than 13 points per game and Jameis Winston has been very steady leading an offense with great weapons. This game is a huge test for the defense and Dallas will enter this game off a loss and facing some questions after struggling on offense Sunday night. Dallas still has a bit of a cushion in the NFC picture, especially with the Giants and Lions facing off. Tampa Bay really has no margin for error while going 5-1 on the road this season with several quality wins. COWBOYS BY 4 NY GIANTS (-4½) Detroit (43½) The Detroit Lions are the #2 seed in the NFC, getting another narrow win last week hosting Chicago. The Lions continue to look like a very flawed team but at 9-4 the wins keep coming even surviving some big mistakes last week. With very difficult competition the final three games the Lions still have work to do. New York is 6-1 at home but every win has come by six or fewer points as this is a difficult team to lay points with. All four losses for the Lions have come by a single-score and Detroit is already 2-0 vs. the NFC East. A tight game should be expected and the points are appealing with this line potentially climbing with Matthew Stafford s hand issue. GIANTS BY 3 BALTIMORE (NL) Philadelphia A 3-0 start for the Eagles has disappeared with a 2-8 run the last 10 games. A once promising defense has allowed 26 or more points in six of the last seven games and Carson Wentz has looked like a rookie after a poised first month. Baltimore is in a dangerous spot coming off a huge Monday night game with the Patriots. A loss bounces the Ravens out of the playoff picture in the AFC ahead of next week s critical game with the Steelers. Baltimore is 0-3 vs. the NFC but the Ravens are on a 4-0 run at home. RAVENS BY 9 Green Bay (-7) CHICAGO (43½) With three wins in a row after last week s dominant win over Seattle the Packers are back in the NFC playoff race, though currently fifth in the wild card standings. Three division games remain with this road date on paper the easiest test. Chicago has won both of its division home games this season and the past four weeks the Bears are 1-3 but with the losses coming by six or fewer points to playoff contenders. Matt Barkley had perhaps his best game last week and the Bears have a solid rushing attack behind Jordan Howard. The Packers had a 6-0 turnover edge last week which is unlikely to repeat but momentum seems to back for the Pack. PACKERS BY 10 MINNESOTA (-4) Indianapolis (45) The Vikings survived some big mistakes to get a needed win at Jacksonville last week and a playoff path is possible. With last week s loss the Colts are in a bad spot in the AFC South race, behind both Houston and Tennessee and behind in the tiebreaker with the Texans. The defense ultimately hasn t held up vs. top competitions but the Colts still have some potential and most losses have been close games. On a 2-6 run with narrow wins vs. losing teams the Vikings aren t a reliable favorite. This game is probably an elimination game with both teams in marginal positions. COLTS BY 3 BUFFALO (-10) Cleveland (43) The Bills have taken back-to-back losses vs. AFC contenders as Buffalo has played a very difficult schedule and looks like a better team than the 6-7 records suggests. The playoffs aren t a reality this season and it isn t clear that the Bills will be up for a strong closing run. The 0-13 Browns are 2-11 ATS yet there haven t been that many lopsided losses. This will be one of the biggest spreads of the season for the Browns and Cleveland ran the ball with some success last week in the return of RGIII. The Browns are allowing big rushing numbers as well but a blowout isn t likely. BILLS BY 7 KANSAS CITY (-5) Tennessee (43) The Chiefs took control of the AFC West with last Thursday s big win over the Raiders but there is still plenty to be settled in the AFC picture. The Titans are tied with the Texans on top of the AFC South, getting above.500 last week with a huge win over Denver. The Titans have four wins vs. winning teams this season and a great ground game will have potential against Kansas City while being less susceptible to the great secondary for the Chiefs. Kansas City is 5-1 at home but with mostly narrow wins as this is a hard team to lay points with. The Chiefs have seven non-offensive scores this season while Tennessee has allowed seven of those big plays but without that these team s records could be flipped. CHIEFS BY 3 HOUSTON (-6) Jacksonville (40) The Texans and Brock Osweiler have taken a lot of criticism but the Texans have won the games they have needed to, now 4-0 in the division and still leading the AFC South with the most favorable remaining schedule of the three division contenders. Houston squeaked out a win over Jacksonville in Week 10 and the 2-11 Jaguars continue to play competitively but almost always finding ways to lose while ATS losers in six of the last eight games as this doesn t look like a spoiler threat. To its credit, Houston is generally winning the games it is supposed to with a 16-2 S/U and a ATS mark as a favorite the past three seasons. TEXANS BY 9 ARIZONA (-2½) New Orleans (50) 3:05 PM Falling to 5-8 last week with another close loss effectively ends the season for the Saints. A second straight road game looks daunting for a team that is 2-4 on the road. Arizona is at home in a very disappointing campaign but both of these losing teams have positive point differentials. The Cardinals run the ball effectively but the passing game has seen a huge decline compared with last season. New Orleans has scored just 24 points the past two games combined with injuries taking a toll but the Saints have endured a very tough schedule while playing exclusively close games. SAINTS BY 4 ATLANTA (-13) San Francisco (51½) 3:05 PM The Falcons delivered a dominant win last week in Los Angeles and Atlanta has the third best scoring differential in the NFL. Only two NFC teams have allowed more points than the Falcons however, though one of those teams is San Francisco. The 12-game slide for the 49ers has featured several close games but the 49ers have been outscored by 16 points per game on the road. Atlanta has three home losses this season and this hasn t been a reliable defense for a squad facing some pressure. FALCONS BY 10 New England (NL) DENVER 3:25 PM The Patriots face a short week ahead of the AFC Championship rematch with this game critically important for a Broncos team barely hanging on to a playoff spot after last week s loss in Nashville. The Broncos have two home losses this season but Denver has won three of the past four meetings with the Patriots. Trevor Siemian threw for 334 yards last week but the Broncos managed only 10 points with a running game that has disappeared. The Broncos are 4-0 S/U and ATS as a home underdog the past two seasons and more is at stake for the hosts with this being a matchup that the elite Denver defense will be up for. BRONCOS BY 3 Oakland (-3) SAN DIEGO (50) 3:25 PM The Raiders moved from the AFC top spot to the wild card round with last week s loss and this won t be an easy game to bounce back, facing a second straight road game in the division. San Diego has had turnover issues the past two weeks while losing Melvin Gordon and it may be hard to get a lot out of this team the rest of the way. The Raiders won in the first meeting with turnovers a big factor and the Raiders should be in a good bounce back spot with the extended week. Oakland s defense has struggled but Philip Rivers had 10 interceptions the past four games and now loses his best offensive outlet and a star rookie on defense. RAIDERS BY 10 Pittsburgh (-3½) CINCINNATI (44½) This playoff and division rematch was moved out of the Sunday night time slot with the Steelers waiting on Baltimore s result Monday for the division lead. The Steelers are 4-3 on the road with some narrow escapes and this is a second straight road game. Cincinnati s season is lost but the Bengals have turned in convincing wins the past two weeks and the run prior featured losses by 1, 4, and 5 points as Cincinnati wasn t far away from a much better season. In Week 2 Pittsburgh won at home in a game the Bengals had more yardage in. The wins for the Bengals have mostly come against lousy teams including beating the Browns twice as Pittsburgh has covered in 15 of the last 19 trips to Paul Brown Stadium. STEELERS BY 6