Wind Flow Modeling Software Comparison
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1 Wind Flow Modeling Software Comparison John Vanden Bosche AWEA Wind Resource Assessment Workshop Minneapolis, MN September 30, 2009
2 Issues With Wind Flow Modeling Impractical to measure the wind at the location of each wind turbine, so some model is necessary Conceptual flow models were used historically relied heavily on the analyst s skill WAsP became a de-facto industry standard over the past 10 to 15 years WAsP is a linear model that is not ideal. Can we do better?
3 New Models are Emerging CFD models Meso-scale models Combinations of various models We investigated WAsP, MS-Micro, WindSim, and Jack Kline s terrain based model
4 Methodology Compared models at two sites with different terrain and climate characteristics Utilized ONLY concurrent wind data at a consistent height in the comparison Eliminated potential bias from MCP or wind shear adjustments Utilized best practices for use of each software Jack Kline modeled the sites for us we provided data and he provided results
5 Sites Test sites provided courtesy of Ridgeline Energy Intermountain western US Both have moderately complex terrain Atmospheric stability is important in wind flow Site names and average wind speeds have been obscured to ensure confidentiality
6 Site 1
7 Site 2
8 WAsP Oldest model considered Linear flow model Industry standard Well known
9 MS Micro 3 Part of optimization software WindFarm Linear flow model Very fast calculations Low cost $$$ Effective tutorials
10 WindSim CFD Combines results from multiple met towers Visual error results Exportable 3D data Possible to investigate convergence
11 Jack Kline s Model Empirical model presented at the 2007 WRA workshop Utilizes proprietary upwind and downwind exposure indices Measured wind speeds are regressed with exposure indices and elevation Regression results can be used to predict wind speeds at other met tower locations (or turbine locations)
12 Results Comparison Combined results from multiple initialization met towers for WAsP and MS- Micro to create a composite wind flow grid WindSim treats multiple met towers simulteously Leave 1 met tower out from composite grid Compare predicted result for left out tower to measured wind at that tower
13 Results Table Site 1
14 Results Table Site 2
15 What does error correlate to? Tells us something about how the models work We may be able to apply correction factors To examine error correlation, we re-ran the models with 1 tower predicting all other towers the opposite of leave one out Compare error to distance, elevation change, upwind and downwind exposure change, and RIX
16 Is error correlated to distance? 20.0% Prediction Error Versus Distance 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% MS Micro Error WAsP Error WindSim Error 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Distance From Predictor Mast (m)
17 Is error correlated to elevation change? Error versus elevation difference 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% % MS Micro Error WAsP Error WindSim Error 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Delta Elevation (m)
18 Is error correlated to upwind exposure? Error versus upwind exposure difference 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% % MS Micro Error WAsP Error WindSim Error 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Delta Upwind Exposure (m)
19 Is error correlated to downwind exposure? Error versus downwind exposure difference 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% % MS Micro Error WAsP Error WindSim Error 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Delta Downwind Exposure (m)
20 Is error correlated to delta RIX? Error versus delta RIX 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% % MS Micro Error WAsP Error WindSim Error 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Delta RIX (%)
21 What Do the Results Mean? The commercially available software performs reasonably well, but there is a possibility to have big errors Care is needed in designing a measurement campaign More met towers are better, in a wide variety of terrain Jack is onto something with his exposurebased model!
22 Acknowledgements Thanks to Ridgeline Energy for access to their sites and data Thanks to Nathaniel Vandal, Mike Burghart, and Regina Sweet for help with help with processing data and running models Thanks to Jack Kline for modeling the sites Thanks to Arne Gravdahl at WindSim for his excellent technical support
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