LEARNING FROM SANDY Webinar 2. Lessons learned. March 12, Beth A. Leonard Director of Technical Services BoatU.S.

Transcription

1 LEARNING FROM SANDY Webinar 2 Lessons learned March 12, 2013 Beth A. Leonard Director of Technical Services BoatU.S.

2 Association of Marina Industries (AMI) Website: Contact: Wendy Larimer

3 BoatU.S. Catastrophe (CAT) Teams First deployed after Hurricane Alicia hit Houston in 1983 Team of experienced surveyors, salvors, and claims adjustors On the ground after every major weather event where large numbers of boats were destroyed for the past 30 years Debrief after the fact to develop hurricane preparation best practices First members reached marinas in NY and NJ less than 24 hours after Sandy made landfall; CAT Teams in the field through Christmas Past two months debriefing to determine what we can learn from this storm

4 Webinar series objective To share lessons coming out of Sandy that will help marine facilities in storm-damaged areas rebuild smarter and those in other areas prepare better for future storms The first webinar tried to answer three questions: 1. Why were so many boats and so much marina infrastructure destroyed DESPITE good forecasting and days of preparation based on industry best practices? 2. How did the various methods of securing boats fare in Sandy s high surge? 3. What are the key lessons learned for marine facilities?

5 Why was this storm so devastating? Storm Dynamics: Power of a hurricane with the size and duration of a nor easter Largest storm ever in the Atlantic basin Confluence of easterly wind direction and Long Island geography Intensity, extent, and duration of winds Arrival with lunar tide and duration across multiple high tides Coastal Configuration: High population and marina density Many marinas only a few feet above MHW levels Prevalence of older marina infrastructure not designed to withstand surge in excess of 6 feet

6 Outcomes in a high-surge storm Hauling boats wasn t wrong, but it didn t work as well as in high-wind storms. Floating docks with sufficiently high pilings were the only place where large numbers of boats survived Sandy unscathed, but in more than a few cases luck played a significant role. A higher percentage of boats survived on fixed docks than in high-wind storms, but where they didn t they were often wrecked completely. Moorings offer a viable alternative for keeping boats safe in high-surge storms, but only if ALL moorings in the basin are properly constructed, maintained, and prepared for the actual conditions.

7 Four take aways 1. Surge matters. 2. Preparations matter but we have to prepare for the real risks. 3. Hurricane planning needs to become more marina and storm specific. 4. Lessons from Florida marinas and new ideas coming out of Sandy could have reduced the damage in this storm.

8 Webinar series objective To share lessons coming out of Sandy that will help marine facilities in storm-damaged areas rebuild smarter and those in other areas prepare better for future storms This webinar will focus on securing boats on land, specifically: 1. How can you quantify the wind and surge risks for your marina? 2. Based on our experience to date, what methods of securing boats on land work best for different kinds of storms? 3. Would any of those methods have worked in Sandy?

9 Securing boats on land Assessing wind and surge risk Methods and techniques for securing boats on the hard Would any of this have worked in Sandy?

10 Fighting the last war It has been said critically that there is a tendency in many armies to spend the peace time studying how to fight the last war. January-February 1929, The Military Engineer, Some Notes on the World War by J. L. Schley (Lieutenant Colonel, Corps of Engineers), pg. 55, col. 1L

11 Goals of hurricane preparation Prevent loss of life Limit damage to boats Limit damage to marina infrastructure Limit damage to other infrastructure Limit damage to the environment PRIORITIES Keep the boats on land: (1) From going over the bulkhead (2) On the premises (3) Upright (4) Watertight

12 Securing boats on land Assessing wind and surge risk Methods and techniques for securing boats on the hard Would any of this have worked in Sandy?

13 Analyzing your marina s risks Wind risk exposure Surge risk SLOSH models, FEMA ABFEs Wave risk fetch, breakwalls, wave attenuators Debris risk 360-degree assessment No man s land insurance coverage

14 What you would like to know To decide how to rebuild: 1% or 1 in 100 year risk Wind Surge To decide how to prepare for a coming storm: best available forecast Wind Surge

15 66 Most intense* US storms at landfall, Ranking Hurricane Location Region Region 2 Year Category Pressure (mbs) 1 FL Keys FL FL Camille MS/SE LA/VA GC Katrina LA/MS/AL GC Andrew SE FL/SE LA FL GC FL (Keys), S TX FL (Keys)S TX FL GC FL (Lake Okeechobee) FL FL Donna FL/Eastern US FL TX (Galeveston) TX GC LA (Gand Isle) LA GC LA (New Orleans) LA GC *Based on Saffir-Simpson Scale and barometric pressure Sources:

16 66 Most intense* US storms at landfall, Ranking Hurricane Location Region Region 2 Year Category Pressure (mbs) 11Carla TX GC Hugo SC SE Miami, Pensacola/MS/AL FL/MS/AL FL GC Rita SW LA/N TX GC Hazel SC/NC SE SE FL/SE LA/MS FL/LA/MS FL GC Sandy NY, NJ, CT NE N TX TX GC Charley SW FL FL Gloria NJ, NY, CT NE Opal NW FL, AL GC *Based on Saffir-Simpson Scale and barometric pressure Sources:

17 Probability of an intense storm in any year by region based on data Region Total Cat 5 Cat 4 Cat 3 Gulf Coast 31.3% 1.8% 8.9% 20.5% Florida 20.5% 1.8% 5.4% 13.4% Southeast* 7.1% 0.0% 1.8% 5.4% Northeast** 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% *SC, NC, VA **NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA Sources: analysis

18 Historic frequency of intense storms by region in years, Region Total Cat 5 Cat 4 Cat 3 Gulf Coast Florida Southeast* Northeast *SC, NC, VA **NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA Sources: analysis

19 What you would like to know To decide how to rebuild: 1% or 1 in 100 year risk Wind Surge To decide how to prepare for a coming storm: best available forecast Wind Surge

20 FEMA Advisory Base Flood Elevations (ABFE) Map

21 FEMA Advisory Base Flood Elevations (ABFE) Map

22 FEMA Advisory Base Flood Elevations (ABFE) Map

23 FEMA Advisory Base Flood Elevations (ABFE)

24 NOAA SLOSH Model Hurricane Isabel

25 Hurricane Hugo

26 Hurricane Katrina

27 Hurricane Gloria

28 Hurricane Andrew

29 Additional surge issues SLOSH models and ABFE based on historic information only Impact of sea level rise? Documented 1 foot rise in past 100 years Future rise faster? Surge multiplier? Changes in coastal characteristics? Prudent to add in a generous safety margin

30 What you would like to know To decide how to rebuild: 1% or 1 in 100 year risk Wind Surge To decide how to prepare for a coming storm: best available forecast Wind Surge

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32 What you would like to know To decide how to rebuild: 1% or 1 in 100 year risk Wind Surge To decide how to prepare for a coming storm: best available forecast Wind Surge

33 Storm Surge Watch and Warning Current tropical watches and warnings are mainly issued for winds NWS is developing a collaborative process between the National Hurricane Center and Weather Forecast Offices to issue tropical cyclone storm surge watches and warnings, separately from (tropical) wind watches and warnings. Experimental tropical cyclone storm surge watches and warnings for public by 2015 Future work: Expand to include extra-tropical storms.

34 Experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Heights Provides probabilistic storm surge guidance in terms of above ground level Hurricane Isaac Advisory 34 Storm Surge >= 5 feet AGL Available whenever a hurricane watch and/or warning is in effect for any portion of the Gulf or Atlantic coasts of the continental United States. Products online at:

35 Storm Surge Inundation Graphic Work is well underway with the development of a tropical cyclone inundation graphic which incorporates uncertainty Experimental in 2013 or 2014 Future work: Expand to include extra-tropical storms.

36 Urban Ocean Observatory at Davidson Laboratory

37 What you would like to know To decide how to rebuild: 1% or 1 in 100 year risk Wind Rough guidance based on historical data Surge ABFEs where available, SLOSH plus elsewhere To decide how to prepare for a coming storm: best available forecast Wind National Hurricane Center forecasts Surge Good tools coming soon

38 Securing boats on land Assessing wind and surge risk Methods and techniques for securing boats on the hard Would any of this have worked in Sandy?

39 Methods and techniques Wind vs. surge, sail vs. power Tying down boats Attachment points Tie downs Techniques and lessons learned Securing boats

40 Goals of hurricane preparation Prevent loss of life Limit damage to boats Limit damage to marina infrastructure Limit damage to other infrastructure Limit damage to the environment PRIORITIES Keep the boats on land: (1) From going over the bulkhead (2) On the premises (3) Upright (4) Watertight

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47 Tying down boats: Sailboats Keeps them from being knocked over in high wind events (impressive and proven results through Category 3) Keeps them from getting carried away in high surge events To flood the boat, surge has to exceed height of keel and topsides above the hardstand area in excess of 10 feet. BUT forces on the tie downs?

48 Tying down boats: Powerboats Helps prevent them from being toppled off jackstands in hurricane-force winds, but not as critical as for sailboats Height of keel and topsides above the hardstand area significantly lower than for sailboats would take much less surge to flood the boat In high-surge events like Sandy, it may be better to restrain smaller (>30 feet) powerboats rather than strap them down completely

49 Methods and techniques Wind vs. surge, sail vs. power Tying down boats Attachment points Tie downs Techniques and lessons learned Securing boats

50 River Forest Yachting Center Stuart, FL facility

51 Hinckley Yacht Services, Stuart, FL facility

52 Puerto del Ray, Fajardo, Puerto Rico

53 Spice Island Marina Prickly Bay, Grenada

54 Sebastian River Marina and Boat Club, Sebastian, FL

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56 Methods and techniques Wind vs. surge, sail vs. power Tying down boats Attachment points Tie downs Techniques and lessons learned Securing boats

57 Sebastian River Marina and Boat Club, Sebastian, FL

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59 Hinckley Yacht Services, Stuart, FL facility

60 Hinckley Yacht Services, Stuart, FL facility

61 River Forest Yachting Center Stuart, FL facility

62 Methods and techniques Wind vs. surge, sail vs. power Tying down boats Attachment points Tie downs Techniques and lessons learned Securing boats

63 Indiantown Marina, Indiantown, FL

64 Spice Island Marina Prickly Bay, Grenada

65 Sebastian River Marina and Boat Club, Sebastian, FL

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68 Sebastian River Marina and Boat Club, Sebastian, FL

69 River Forest Yachting Center Stuart, FL facility

70 Sebastian River Marina and Boat Club, Sebastian, FL

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72 Indiantown Marina, Indiantown, FL

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74 Spice Island Marina Prickly Bay, Grenada

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77 Techniques and lessons learned Plywood under jackstands to keep them from sinking Jackstands should be chained together to keep them from shifting Tying boats together can help to hold them in place Fendering between boats to minimize damage Special equipment may be required to pack boats in Can charge for preparing boats for hurricanes If tying down for surge that might reach higher than the waterline, would want to close all seacocks and seal the exhaust

78 Methods and techniques Wind vs. surge, sail vs. power Tying down boats Attachment points Tie downs Techniques and lessons learned Securing boats

79 Securing boats Secure row of boats to strong points Use stretchy nylon line Allow boats to rise with the surge Held in the area by lines When they come down, may not come down well Even if damaged, still on premises, at least some will be upright and watertight

80 Securing smaller boats for large surge DRAIN PLUGS IN BILGE PUMPS ON BATTERIES TOPPED UP

81 Securing boats on the hard Assessing wind and surge risk Securing boats on land Would any of this have worked in Sandy?

82 Courtesy Gary Lucas

83 Gary Lucas Case Study Raised stands higher and added more concrete blocks under the hull Four screw anchors four feet long each rated for 6,000 lbs. Nylon straps ran over the top of the boat (not to cleats) Ratchets to crank down on the straps Straps and anchors were obtained from McMaster Carr at a cost of less than $100

84 Courtesy Gary Lucas

85 Oceanport Landing, Oceanport. NJ On Branchport Creek off the Shrewsbury River Just south of Sandy Hook Five miles through river to ocean Large hardstand stowage not far above water

86 Oceanport Landing, Oceanport. NJ

87 Oceanport Landing Case Study Ultimate Storm Plan Keep boats on the premises Accepted they would not be able to keep boats from floating Crossed stern lines and secured them to any strong points available; tied bows together Tried to tie the raft to something telephone poles, trees, building Drain plugs in and seacocks closed

88 Oceanport Landing Outcome Ran out of line securing 40-foot sailboats with 3/8- inch line No boats left premises No boats over the bulkhead Boats floated up and came back down again in roughly the same place No major damage lots of bent railings and scratch and dent issues

89 Oceanport Landing manager s takeaways Have an Ultimate Storm Plan in addition to the normal hurricane plan Ask boat owners to get lines and fenders out and leave them in cockpit as early as possible Fenders between the boats would have prevented much of the damage

90 Al Grover s High and Dry, Freeport, NY

91 Marinas.com Al Grover s High and Dry, Freeport, NY About six miles from Far Rockaway Four miles through estuary to ocean Large dry stack storage and hardstand area not far above water

92 High and Dry Case Study Accepted they would not be able to keep boats from floating Boats on the hardstand were blocked on cement blocks, as high as possible Drain plugs in and seacocks closed On boats that were not self bailing, made sure bilge pumps were on and working, topped up batteries Boats that were already set up for winter storage had drain plugs out

93 High and Dry Outcome Boats that floated off without their drain plugs all sank; engines damaged or destroyed Boats with plugs in suffered no engine damage; scuffing and scratching only BoatUS CAT Team surveyor Ron Alcus, Half the engine damage of any other marina in the area

94 High and Dry manager s takeaways If boats had been secured somehow, could have kept them on the premise and avoided finding and recovering them Believes that anything that kept boats from moving would have been helpful dropping anchors, tying to telephone poles, etc. Fenders would have prevented much of the damage Only uses cement blocks, no jackstands believed that helped to limit the damage

95 Would any of this have worked in Sandy? Tying down sailboats would have kept a high percentage in place Tying down large powerboats would probably also have been a successful strategy Restraining smaller powerboats looks like an approach worth trying in future storms These strategies did reduce damage to boats, marinas and other property in at least three cases

96 Reality check Most people in the path of a hurricane are going to worry about their families, homes, and cars before they worry about their boats Marina personnel have the same concerns, as well as needing to secure the business before the storm strikes May get three days of warning that a hurricane is approaching, but exact path, likely wind speeds, and forecast surge height won t be reliable right up to 24 hours or so before it strikes Hurricane plan must be realistic about how many boats you can haul and prepare in three days what will you do with the rest? Would recommend having an Ultimate Storm Plan that can be ilast 24 hours

97 Strategies for securing different boats in different conditions Low surge (>3 feet) Moderate surge (3-6 feet) High surge (6-10 feet) Cat 1 or 2 Cat 3 or 4 Sail: Block low, tie down Large power: Block low, tie down Small power: Block high, tie down Sail: Block low, tie down Large power: Block high, tie down Small power: Block high, restrain Sail: Block high, tie down Power: Block high, restrain Small power: Block high, restrain Sail: Block low, tie down Large power: Block low, tie down Small power: Block high, tie down Sail: Block low, tie down Large power: Block high, tie down Small power: Block high, restrain Sail: Block high, tie down Large power: Block high, restrain Small power: Block high, restrain WORK IN PROGRESS

98 Webinar series objective To share lessons coming out of Sandy that will help marine facilities in storm-damaged areas rebuild smarter and those in other areas prepare better for future storms This webinar will focus on securing boats on land, specifically: 1. How can you quantify the wind and surge risks for your marina? 2. Based on our experience to date, what methods of securing boats on land work best for different kinds of storms? 3. Would any of those methods have worked in Sandy?

99 Four take aways 1. Surge matters. 2. Preparations matter but we have to prepare for the real risks. 3. Hurricane planning needs to become more marina and storm specific. 4. Lessons from Florida marinas and new ideas coming out of Sandy could have reduced the damage in this storm.

100 Boating Resource Goal: To make sure boaters know what marinas are up and running in storm-damaged areas this summer so business doesn t pass boating facilities by. BoatU.S., AMI, and Dozier s Waterway Guide See web page at: To report updates: superstormsandy@waterwayguide.com

101 Contact information Beth Leonard Director of Technical Services, BoatU.S. Kim Shaw Assistant VP of Marine Insurance Underwriting

102 BoatU.S. and AMI want to wish all those who suffered damage from Sandy the best of luck in the coming year. THANK YOU!

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