Figure 1 GE image of the Costa Sur & EcoEléctrica power plants, located inside Guayanilla and Tallaboa bay.
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- Regina Allen
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1 1 7 - STORM SURGES IN PUERTO RICO_Power Plants-Costa Sur & EcoElectrica Costa Sur & EcoEléctrica Figure 1 shows a GE image of the Costa Sur (Guayanilla) and EcoElectrica site. Figure 2 shows the topographic map for the site, using the 1/3 arc-seconds (10 M) resolution Ponce DEM prepared by NGDC/NOAA. In Figure 2 we note the following: Figure 1 GE image of the Costa Sur & EcoEléctrica power plants, located inside Guayanilla and Tallaboa bay. All areas seaward of the blue contour would be flooded by a sea level rise (SLR) of +0.5 m, while areas seaward of the green contour would be flooded by a SLR of +1.0 m. Note that the Costa Sur turbines lie below an elevation equal to, or smaller, than 3 m. The EcoEléctrica property seems to lie not higher than 2 m above MSL (green contour). Many large tanks lie below +2 m relative to MSL. Figure 3 shows the FEMA map for the area. We can see that: A large part of Punta Gotay (the peninsula sticking out, where EcoEléctrica is located) appears as Other Flood Areas, especially where the large tanks are. From the FEMA map it looks as if the seaward end of Punta Gotay could become isolated from the mainland during a hurricane event.
2 There is a small coastal strip in front of the Costa Sur turbines that gets flooded by the 100-year event. Almost all of the area east of the Punta Gotay peninsula seems to be floodable either by the 100-year storm surge or the Rio Tallaboa. 2
3 3
4 4 Figure 2 Costa Sur & EcoEléctrica site with elevation contours superimposed. Data source is the 1/3 arc-seconds (10 m resolution) Ponce DEM prepared by NGDC/NOAA for tsunami flood mapping. Colored contours are as follows: red (z=0 m), blue (0.5 m), green (1.0 m), and cyan (3.0 m). The rest of the contours are black. All contour lines have hachures (rayados) pointing towards lower elevation. All areas seaward of the blue contour (towards which the hachures point) would be flooded by a sea level rise (SLR) of +0.5 m. All seaward of the green contour (towards which the hachures point) would be flooded by a SLR of +1.0 m. Figure 4 shows the transect locations used to run the WHAFIS/RUNUP models in order to determine the inland extent of the VE zone. Only two of them fall in the power plant complex, #179 and 180. I may be wrong, but it is my understanding that in-between transects an interpolation of the wave heights is used based on the two nearest transects. That could be understandable in open coastlines, which are very homogeneous laterally. But how FEMA consultants could come out with VE zone, and BFE estimates in
5 5 Figure 3 FEMA map (tiles 1620, 1640, 1985, and 2005) for the Costa Sur/EcoEléctrica complex. such a complex environment, based on just two transects, without running a two-dimensional wave model, is beyond my comprehension. Below we will see the distribution of significant wave height, Hs, values based on the SWAN model for comparison purposes. Figure 5 shows the location of the computational nodes inside Guayanilla and Tallaboa bays. The node spacing near the power plants varies between 70 and 80 meters. We will next start to show the flood maps for the different hurricane categories and under three sea level rise scenarios. For each case we will first show (almost) the whole bay, followed by zooms into Costa Sur and EcoEléctrica. Figures 6 to 20 show the flood maps for category 1 to 5 hurricanes. Recall the discussion for the Aguirre power plant about the displacement noticed between the GE shoreline and the DEM shoreline. As Figure 7 shows, here it is about 35 meters, so that the painted area (flooding) seen in the figure should
6 6 Figure 4 Transect locations for WHAFIS/RUNUP models for FEMA study. be displaced landward approximately that distance in order to assess the inland extension of the flooding. And recall that we are showing flood depth, or Inundation Depth. That is, the height of the water column above the local terrain elevation. Figure 7 shows that even for the lowest category (a 1) passing through the most critical track for Costa Sur floods the first row of infrastructure, and almost reaching the second row of structures. And that happens with no wave runup. The same holds for EcoEléctrica. Figures 21 to 34 show what can be expected for the five hurricane categories under a sea level rise of +0.5 m. By now we can start to see that under some scenarios the SWE has reached, and surpassed the location of the Costa Sur turbines. As for EcoEléctrica, the flooding is such that wind waves can propagate inland and directly impact the tanks and other infrastructure. Figures 35 to 63 show results for a sea level rise of +1.0 m. Please recall that we have not included wave runup in these maps and that, historically, wave runup can increase the inland flooding by a factor of two.
7 7 Figure 5 Costa Sur and EcoEléctrica nodes (white crosses) of computational mesh used in the ADCIRC+SWAN study referenced in this study. Near the power plants the node spacing varies between meters. Figure 6 Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
8 8 Figure 7 Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. Costa Sur. Figure 8 Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
9 9 Figure 9 Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 10 Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. Costa Sur.
10 10 Figure 11 Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica. Figure 12 Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
11 11 Figure 13 Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. Costa Sur. Figure 14 - Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica.
12 12 Figure 15 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 16 - Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. Costa Sur. Note that if we displace landward the painted contours in order to account for the DEM displacement, it looks as if the stillwater is close to, or has, reached the turbines.
13 13 Figure 17 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica Figure 18 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
14 14 Figure 19 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. Costa Sur. Note that if we displace landward the painted contours in order to account for the DEM displacement, it looks as if the stillwater is close to, or has, reached the turbines. Figure 20 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = 0 m. EcoEléctrica
15 15 Figure 21 - Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 22 - Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. Costa Sur.
16 16 Figure 23 - Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica. Figure 24 - Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
17 17 Figure 25 - Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. Costa Sur. Figure 26 - Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica.
18 18 Figure 27 - Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 28 - Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. Costa Sur.
19 19 Figure 29 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 30 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. Costa Sur. Note the flooding has reached some of the turbines (after shifting landward the painted contours).
20 20 Figure 31 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica. Figure 32 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
21 21 Figure 33 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. Costa Sur. Note the flooding has surpassed the turbines (even without shifting landward the painted contours). Figure 34 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica.
22 22 Figure 35 - Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 36 - Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. Costa Sur.
23 23 Figure 37 - Inundation Depth for category 1 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica. Figure 38 - Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
24 24 Figure 39 - Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. Costa Sur. Figure 40 - Inundation Depth for category 2 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica.
25 25 Figure 41 - Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 42 - Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. Costa Sur.
26 26 Figure 43 - Inundation Depth for category 3 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica. Figure 44 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
27 27 Figure 45 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. Costa Sur. Note the flooding of two of the turbines. Figure 46 - Inundation Depth for category 4 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica.
28 28 Figure 47 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 48 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. Costa Sur.
29 29 Figure 49 - Inundation Depth for category 5 hurricane under SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica. Figure 50 Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 1 hurricane. SLR = 0.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
30 30 Figure 51 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 2 hurricane. SLR = 0.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 52 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 3 hurricane. SLR = 0.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
31 31 Figure 53 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 4 hurricane. SLR = 0.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 54 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 4 hurricane. SLR = 0.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
32 32 Figure 55 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 1 hurricane. SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 56 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 2 hurricane. SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
33 33 Figure 57 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 3 hurricane. SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 58 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 4 hurricane. SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
34 34 Figure 59 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 5 hurricane. SLR = +0.5 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 60 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 1 hurricane. SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
35 35 Figure 61 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 3 hurricane. SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. Figure 62 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 4 hurricane. SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur.
36 Figure 63 - Significant Wave Height, Hs, in meters for Category 5 hurricane. SLR = +1.0 m. EcoEléctrica and Costa Sur. 36
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