International Trade Trends 2010 Review and 2011 Outlook Nancy D. Sidhu, Ph.D. Chief Economist The Kyser Center for Economic Research LAEDC May 18, 2011
International Container Traffic at Nation s Major Ports 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Millions TEUs Savannah '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 09 10 Source: Port Statistical Releases
Value of International Trade at Nation s Leading Customs Districts 400 350 300 Billions of US$ Los Angeles New York Detroit Houston New Orleans 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
2010 Top 10 Ports in the World Total containers in millions of 20ft. equivalent units (TEU) Rank Port Trade Region 2010 2009 %ChYA 1 Shanghai East Asia 29.0 25.0 16.1% 2 Singapore South East Asia 28.4 25.9 9.9% 3 Hong Kong East Asia 23.5 21.0 11.8% 4 Shenzhen East Asia 22.5 18.3 23.3% 5 Busan North East Asia 14.2 12.0 18.4% 6 Los Angeles/Long Beach North America West Coast 14.1 11.8 19.3% 7 Ningbo East Asia 13.1 10.5 25.1% 8 Guangzhou East Asia 12.6 11.2 12.2% 9 Qingdao East Asia 12.0 10.3 16.8% 10 Dubai Middle East 11.6 11.1 4.3% Source: Containerisation International-2010, American Association of Port Authorities-2009
LAX International Cargo Traffic 1200 Tons, Thousands 1000 800 Departures (Exports) 600 400 200 Arrivals (Imports) 0 Source: Los Angeles World Airports
Top Export Destinations 35 30 $Billions 30.1 From the Los Angeles Customs District 2009 2010 25 22.9 20 15 10 5 11.7 13.8 7.5 10.3 6.0 6.5 5.9 4.4 0 China Japan South Korea Australia Taiwan Source: US Census Bureau
Top Import Sources Into the Los Angeles Customs District 180 160 140 120 100 80 $Billions 132.5 160.3 2009 2010 60 40 20 0 30.6 39.5 10.3 14.0 10.0 10.0 7.5 8.6 China Japan South Korea Taiwan Thailand Source: US Census Bureau, General Imports
2010 Imports Entering the L.A. Customs District (Share of Total) Refined Oil Products & Natural Gas, 5.5% Motor Vehicles & Parts, 8.0% Toys, Games & Sports Equipment, 4.4% Total Imports: $312.0 Bn Other, 35.8% Apparel & Accessories, 8.8% Electric Machinery, Sound & TV Equipment & Parts, 18.2% Source: US Census Bureau Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances & Parts, 19.3%
2010 Exports Through L.A Customs District (Share of Total) Motor Vehicles & Parts, 5.1% Other, 48.4% Total Exports: $105.3 Bn Aircraft, Spacecraft & Parts, 6.0% Plastics & Items Made of Plastic, 6.4% Source: US Census Bureau Optical, Photo & Medical/Surgical Instruments, 7.5% Electric Machinery, Sound & TV Equipment & Parts, 12.2% Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances & Parts, 14.4%
International Trade-Related Employment 580 560 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 in the L.A. Five-County Area Source: CA EDD, US Census Bureau
$6.2 $6.8 $7.3 $7.5 $8.1 $8.6 $9.3 $10.5 $9.2 $10.9 $9.2 $8.8 $9.2 $9.6 $9.6 $10.6 $10.6 $15.7 $14.3 $16.3 $16.6 $18.1 $18.1 $21.1 Worldwide Box Office Receipts $Billions Domestic International Source: MPAA
International Passengers at LAX 20.0 Passengers (Millions) 18.0 16.0 15.1 15.8 17.4 16.0 14.8 14.6 16.5 17.5 16.9 17.2 16.6 15.1 15.9 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 09 10 Source: Los Angeles World Airports
World Economic Outlook Annual % Change 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 10.5 9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0-1.5-3.0-4.5-6.0-7.5 World Japan Developing Asia Latin/South America Euro Area Source: International Monetary Fund (April 2011)
Value of U.S. Dollar Since 2000 120 Canada (C$/US$) China (Yuan/US$) Euro Zone ( /US$) Japan ( /US$) U.K. ( /US$) 110 100 90 80 70 60 Index (2000 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Board
Impact of Japan s Disasters Large near-term declines in activity closely tied to Japan Reduced availability of Japanese nameplate vehicles Fewer Japanese tourists Scattered shortages of key parts and components manufactured only/mostly in Japan Followed by recovery Return to normal later in 2011, 2012, and thereafter.
Crude Oil Prices 2000-2011 160 $/BBL 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: Energy Information Administration
Trade Related Infrastructure Projects Current Pier G Modernization (POLB) Long Beach Harbor Dredging (POLB) TraPac Improvement (POLA) China Shipping Expansion (POLA) Main Channel Deepening Project (POLA) Bradley West (LAX) Farther ahead Gerald Desmond Bridge (POLB) Middle Harbor Redevelopment (POLB) Pier 500 (POLA) Intermodal Container Transfer Facility Modernization/Expansion (UP) Southern California International Gateway (BNSF)
Challenges for International Trade Industry Panama Canal Expansion Expected completion in 2014. Competition from Other Ports Gulf and East Coast Canada and Mexico Ground Transportation Capacity and Rates Colton Crossing Project
Opportunities for International Trade Industry National Export Initiative Exports to double by 2014. South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement Developing Asia Nations China ASEAN Nations Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Philippines
Total TEUs Handled at the LA-LB Ports 18 Millions 16 14 12 10 8 6 Los Angeles 10.6 9.5 9.7 4.5 4.6 4.5 Long Beach 14.2 13.1 11.8 6.7 5.8 4.7 15.8 15.7 7.3 7.3 14.3 6.5 11.8 5.1 14.1 6.3 14.8 6.6 15.5 6.9 4 2 4.9 5.2 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.5 8.5 8.4 7.8 6.7 7.8 8.2 8.6 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012f Source: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach
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