2015 Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes
3
1,000s The Regional Economy has added jobs consistently for nearly 5 full years. In a few months, this will be the longest streak of job gains for the region - ever. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MSA Monthly Change in Jobs 3-Month Moving Average 1990-2014 Washington State Employment Security Department 4
5
Topics we need to cover to understand 2015 Price of oil China growth rate U.S. interest rates U.S. lending Stock market valuation U.S. wages Income inequality Western migration U.S. immigration U.S. education competitiveness Washington education & schools Federal tax policies Washington State tax policies Dodd-Frank Federal regulation Fiscal health Demographic changes Majority minorities Natural resources Carbon credits Rare metals Public health Health care costs Health care system Social justice Environmental justice Justice Penal system World peace Extremism Terrorism Tourism Natural disasters Fracking Coal Solar Hydro Water supply Company headquarters Regional brand Boeing airplane orders Boeing job placement Microsoft products ICT talent supply Game development Medical device development Biotech Life sciences NIH funding Congress Arts and culture Place-making Seaports Transportation Bertha Waterfronts Population Life outside of Earth Portland Page 1 of 7 6
Contents A Little Theory Forecasts, Key Sectors American Trends & Seattle Area Trends 7
Circular Flows of the Economy 8
Circular Flows of the Economy 9
Circular Flows of the Economy 10
American Trends 11
Americans Personal Savings (% of Income) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Bureau of Economic Analysis 12
25% Americans Consumer Debt (% of Income) 20% Revolving (Credit Cards) 15% 10% 5% Non-Revolving (Cars and Student Loans) United States Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Economic Data 13
$12,000 Americans Consumer Debt Per Capita Consumer Debt Inflation Adjusted, 1950 2014 (2012 Dollars) $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 United States Census Bureau 14
1950 1951 1952 1953 1955 1956 1957 1958 1960 1961 1962 1963 1965 1966 1967 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 U.S. Government Deficit: % of GDP 1950-2014 8.0% 8% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.0% 0% 0.0% -2% -2.0% -4% -4.0% -6% -6.0% -8% -8.0% -10% -10.0% -12% -12.0% Bureau of Economic Analysis 15
S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio 1900-2015 5-Year Moving Averages 16
Central Puget Sound Regional Trends 17
1,000s The Regional Economy has added jobs consistently for nearly 5 full years. In a few months, this will be the longest streak of job gains for the region - ever. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MSA Monthly Change in Jobs 3-Month Moving Average 1990-2014 Washington State Employment Security Department 18
Puget Sound Regional Growth Annual Change in Jobs & People Change in Jobs Net Migration Office of Financial Management, Washington State Employment Security Department 19
Jobs (1,000s) 2,000 Puget Sound Regional Job Growth 1,800 Government 1,600 1,400 Other services 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Manufacturing Finance and professional services Information Trade Transportation and utilities Construction Aerospace 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Washington State Employment Security Department 20
Employment in Foreign-Owned Companies 100,000 97,900 22,100 Other 80,000 60,000 3,700 4,800 7,800 Switzerland Netherlands 13,400 France 40,000 14,100 Japan United Kingdom 20,000 15,300 Germany 16,700 Canada Bureau of Economic Analysis 0 2012 21
Wages remain flat in lower quantiles $120,000 $100,000 Inflation-Adjusted Wages for All Occupations in U.S. 90th Percentile (0.9% CAGR) $80,000 75th Percentile (0.5% CAGR) $60,000 $40,000 50th Percentile (0% CAGR) 25th Percentile ( - 0.3% CAGR) $20,000 $0 10th Percentile ( - 0.4% CAGR) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Bureau of Labor Statistics 22
Long-Term Unemployed Duration of Unemployment as a Share of the Civilian Labor Force, United States, 1994-2013 Bureau of Labor Statistics 23
24
25
Central Puget Sound Regional Forecasts 26
Employment Forecast Central Puget Sound Region, non-farm jobs Forecast growth of 1.4% per year between 2015-2024 2015 growth of 2.5%. 1.5% growth (CAGR) between 2015 and 2020. Community Attributes Inc., 2015 27
Employment Forecast Central Puget Sound Region, Annual Growth Community Attributes Inc., 2015 28
Strengths & Growth Central Puget Sound Region U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 29
Aerospace U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 30
Aerospace Boeing Commercial Airplanes had a record 2014, with 723 airplanes delivered, and 1,432 orders worth $232.7 billion. Boeing underwent a $1 billion expansion of the Everett plant, adding 1.3 million square feet. Source: The Boeing Company 31
Aerospace Boeing Commercial Airplanes had a record 2014, with 723 airplanes delivered, and 1,432 orders worth $232.7 billion. Boeing underwent a $1 billion expansion of the Everett plant, adding 1.3 million square feet. Boeing Everett expansion has also led other aerospace manufacturers to invest in Everett & Snohomish County facilities. 32
Information Technology U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 33
Information & Communication Technology Bryan to insert break out 34
Life Sciences U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 35
Life Sciences Washington s Life Sciences cluster is ranked 5 th in the nation by the Milken Institute. Strong emphasis on R&D > University of Washington > Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center > Seattle Biomedical Research Institute > Others Source: Puget Sound Regional Council 36
Manufacturing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 37
Property Value 38
Growth Forecasts through 2020 Population Jobs 39
Thank you and Happy 2015! 40
Economic Development Council of Seattle and King County www.edc-seaking.org