Contents Industry Trends North America West Coast Impacts Ship evolution and terminal size issues Terminal Capacity The Shift to Automated Terminals Sustainable Operations 2
World Growth Rates Containerization vs. GDP 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-5% -10% GDP Growth 3 TEU Growth
World TEU Growth Rate - World GDP Growth Rate 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 World TEU Growth - GDP 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 4
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual TEU (M) NA West Coast TEU 30 25 20 15 10 5 Prince Rupert Vancouver Seattle Tacoma Oakland Los Angeles Long Beach Manzanillo Lazaro Cardenas - Page 5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Market Share of Pacific TEU NA West Coast Market Share by Country 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Canada USA Mexico 30% 20% 10% 0% Page 6
Slowing Growth In Container Volume Mature business, most of what can be containerized, is. Most of what can be made overseas, is More likely tied to GDP Big growth areas (Prince Rupert) are cannibalizing traffic from elsewhere Bigger canal (and Polar routes?) will further increase options for shippers to reach the East Coast 7
TEU per Acre TEU per 1000' Wharf Pacific Region Comparison 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 400,000 360,000 320,000 280,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 240,000 200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 - BC WA CA TEU per Acre TEU per 1000' wharf 8 -
Why Rail Connections Matter Canadian RRs go into the US, but not vice versa Not all terminals have on-terminal rail Extra dray cost Lack of branding Higher volume ports (LA/LB) make it easier to build unit trains on terminal 9
CN System Map Page 10
UP System Map Page 11
Ship Size Evolution
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mean Newbuild Vessel TEU Capacity Mean Newbuild Vessel Size vs. Year of Build 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 13
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Largest Existing Vessel TEU Capacity Largest Vessel Size over Time 20,000 18,000 16,000 CMA CGM Marco Polo (Explorer Series) Maersk McKinney Moller (EEE Class) Emma Maersk (E Class) Hyundai Ulsan 14,000 12,000 10,000 Soverign Maersk (S Class) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Horizon Navigator (Series) MSC Kyoto SSG Edward A Carter Jr. MSC Sariska (Series) 0 14
Required Berth Length (ft) Dot Chart of TEU vs. Length at Berth a 2000 wharf is no longer a two berth terminal! 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 Current Panamax New Panamax 400 200 - - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Vessel TEU Capacity 15
DPW Centerm, Vancouver 2100 16
Number of "Big" Terminals Terminals That Can Handle At Least Two New Panamax Ships at the Same Time 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Rupert Vancouver Seattle Tacoma 17 Oakland POLA POLB
Capacity Constraints BC is near capacity USWC (and USEC) is not Outside of BC, projects are done to Reduce cost Reduce environmental impact Replace old, obsolete terminals Manual operations can be high density, all electric, and highly productive USWC terminal labor is most expensive in the world, but USWC terminals are not the most productive 18
Qingdao China Ningbo China Dalian China Shanghai China Tianjin China Yokohama Japan Jebel Ali United Arab Emirates Busan Republic of Korea Nhava Sheva (Jawaharlal Nehru) India Yantian China Taipei Taiwan, Province of China Xiamen China Long Beach USA Elizabeth USA Khor al Fakkan United Arab Emirates Nansha China Kaohsiung Taiwan, Province of China Salalah Oman Mawan China Southampton United Kingdom of Great Britain and Prince Rupert Canada Fuzhou China Chiwan China Hong Kong China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Westport/Port Klang Malaysia Lázaro Cárdenas Mexico Zeebrugge Belgium Osaka Japan Vancouver Canada Tanjung Pelepas Malaysia Rotterdam Netherlands Bremerhaven Germany Hamburg Germany Savannah USA Tacoma USA Bayonne USA Charleston USA Norfolk USA Algeciras Spain New York USA Los Angeles USA Vessel Productivity (mv/hr) at Top World Ports JOC Data 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 19
Why Are US Containers Stored on Wheels? Legacy of Malcolm McLean s trucking heritage Very convenient for gate service No cost for yard equipment 20
Pier T March 2003 21
Pier T July 2007 22
Pier T May 2009 23
What s Bad About Wheeled Operations Very land intensive Cost, complexity, and liability of managing large chassis fleets Technically difficult for dock crane driver to discharge to street chassis vs. terminal chassis Long distance from CY to crane means many terminal tractors required 24
Chassis Corner Pins are Very Hard to Hit from Over 100 in the Air Page 25
Pier 300, Port of Los Angeles 26
Pier 400, Port of Los Angeles Last of the Manual, Wheeled, Mega-fill Projects 27
Pier 400, Port of Los Angeles Last of the Manual, Wheeled, Mega-fill Projects 28
Change in Oil Price vs. Inflation Since 1990 450% 400% RBT2 is being planned here 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% Big terminals at POLA/LB were planned here 0% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Oil 29 CPI
US Longshore Benefit Costs (these do not include wages!) source: PMA 2012 Annual Report 30
Terminal Automation Process Automation OCR data capture RFID equipment tracking Terminal equipment position detection Container inventory Truck appointment systems Machine Automation Driver assist RTG gantry Dock crane autopilot Robotic vehicles AGVs Straddles RMGs Remote operation of dock cranes 31
Euromax Rotterdam a typical fully automated Terminal
RBT2 - Rendering of Final Conceptual Layout Page 33
RBT2 - Final Concept Page 34
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The Social License to Operate POLA lost lawsuit to NRDC over China Shipping in 2001 that changed the industry Public realizes impacts from Port operation Freight doesn t vote Big, verifiable reductions have been made at POLA/LB (see next slide) 36
POLA has Achieved Massive Reductions in Emissions Since 2005 source: POLA Website 37
Review of Greenest Terminal Features On-terminal IY served by electric rail cranes Street trucks turn off engines while awaiting service End-loaded electric yard cranes Gate appointment minimize wait time for street trucks Electric power for vessels at berth Electric transport vehicles Electric dock cranes Automated mooring 38 to reduce vessel idle
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 720 780 840 900 KW Electric Cranes can Regenerate Power when Lowering Containers data from TSI Deltaport Full Regen System 400 300 Power Average 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Time in Seconds 39 Negative values indicate power re-generation
Ports as Renewable Power Stations 40
Final Thoughts Most North American ports have plenty of surplus capacity, but not those in BC Radical new technology will change the way terminals operate North American cargo growth will be slow and competition will be fierce Even the best terminals will be opposed by some people 41
Page 42 Thank You
Contact Information Mark Sisson, PE AECOM 2101 Webster St. Suite 1900 Oakland CA, 94612 Phone: 510-844-0549 Email: mark.sisson@aecom.com Web www.aecom.com