Mixed Models as the Basis for Catcher Evaluation and Forecasting. Harry Pavlidis Baseball Prospectus & Pitch Info
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1 Mixed Models as the Basis for Catcher Evaluation and Forecasting Harry Pavlidis Baseball Prospectus & Pitch Info
2 Introduction
3 Primary Research Team Harry Pavlidis: Director of Technology, Baseball Prospectus Founder, Pitch Info Dan Brooks: Contributor, Baseball Prospectus Lead Scientist, Pitch Info Jonathan Judge: Contributor, Baseball Prospectus Also a lawyer in real life, otherwise he d be here (I ll do my best)
4 Outline What is Catcher Framing? The Value of Framing Revealed Regressed Probabilistic Model ( RPM ) - GAM+WOWY Called Strikes Above Average ( CSAA ) - MM Forecasting Framing
5 What is Catcher Framing??
6 What is Catcher Framing? The ability to receive a pitch such that the likelihood of a called strike is maximized Make borderline strikes stay strikes, and steal the occasional ball and turn it into a strike
7 What is Catcher Framing? Source: Pavlidis, ESPN The Magazine, July 2014
8 The Value of Framing Revealed $
9 The Value of Framing Revealed New Technologies PITCHf/x by Sportvision Data published by MLB Advanced Media Trackman Will replace PITCHf/x Research Breakthroughs John Walsh, 2007 (strike zones and values) Dan Turkenkopf, 2008 New York Yankees, 2009 (unpublished) Mike Fast, 2011 Max Marchi, 2011 & 2013
10 The Value of Framing Revealed Walsh established how the run expectancy of an at bat changes from count to count, providing the run value of a framed pitch Turkenkopf, Fast, Marchi and others found a wide range of skill and value in the MLB catching pool Studies were reproduced, and Marchi applied more robust techniques Also tackled historical data that predated tracking technology
11 The Value of Framing Revealed Ball Strike Run Value
12 The Value of Framing Revealed Best Seasons Catcher Run Value Buster Posey 27 Rene Rivera 26 Hank Conger 25 Source: CSAA model Catcher Total Run Value Jonathan Lucroy Brian McCann Lucroy Catcher Run Value McCann 172 Russell Martin 163 Lucroy 159
13 The Value of Framing Revealed Best Seasons Catcher Run Value Buster Posey 27 Rene Rivera 26 Hank Conger wins Catcher Total Run Value Jonathan Lucroy Brian McCann Lucroy wins Catcher Run Value McCann 172 Russell Martin 163 Lucroy wins
14 Regressed Probabilistic Model using GAM and WOWY library(mgvc)
15 RPM: The Impetus Best Seasons Catcher Run Value Buster Posey 27 Rene Rivera 26 Hank Conger wins Catcher Total Run Value Jonathan Lucroy Brian McCann Lucroy wins Didn t Pass Sniff Tests Catcher Run Value McCann 172 Russell Martin 163 Lucroy wins
16 RPM: The Goal Address issues raised by skeptics Factoring in pitch type Control for batter and pitcher handedness Deal with variance in batter strike zones Account for the umpire and the pitcher Show the numbers! Statcorner publishes +/- numbers The more advanced researchers didn t share and were hired by teams
17 RPM: The Data Pitch Info provides accurate pitch type data and recalibrations to Baseball Prospectus, BrooksBaseball.net and at least one team in every division of Major League Basball. /appeal to authority
18 RPM: Generalized Additive Model For every year, count and pitch type...
19 RPM: The Goal Revisited Address issues raised by skeptics Factoring in pitch type Control for batter and pitcher handedness Deal with variance in batter strike zones Account for the umpire and the pitcher Show the numbers! Statcorner publishes +/- numbers The more advanced researchers didn t share and were hired by teams
20 RPM: With or Without You ( WOWY ) Developed by Tom Tango tangotiger.net/catchers.html WOWY compares all the available pitcher/catcher combinations in order to assess whether a particular catcher, given the pitchers he has caught throughout his career, has fared better or worse than expected. - Marchi, Hardball Times, 2012 RPM created adjustments based on WOWY for each pitcher and umpire and applied that to each pitch called. catcher_score = call - CS_probability - pitcher_adjustment - umpire_adjustment call = 1 for strike, 0 for ball; multiply score by count-specific or generic run value for total value
21 RPM: Regression Regress each catcher to league average (0) Regression was based on intraclass correlation ("ICC") of each measurement. ICC consistency and agreement both showed that a 50/50 point occurred after ~290 framing opportunities The amount to regress r is based on the framing chances n and this 50/50 point r = n / (n + 290)
22 RPM: Agreement With Scouting
23 RPM: Example 1, Red Sox Upgrade Christian Vazquez A.J. Pierzynski
24 RPM: Example 2, The Extremes Wilin Rosario Jonathan Lucroy
25 RPM: We Published It
26 Called Strikes Above Average: Mixed Models library(lme4)
27 CSAA: The Goal Replace WOWY and manual regression with a more robust technique Replicate Marchi s retrosheet work Make Judge do most of the work Publish it all
28 CSAA: Why a Mixed Model? Fixed Effects called strike probability (from RPM s GAM) ball/strike home field advantage Random Effects catcher pitcher umpire batter
29 CSAA: PITCHf/x IV selection driven by theory and BIC The null is the hardest part Final value
30 CSAA: Historical IV selection driven by theory and BIC The null is the hardest part Final value
31 Forecasting Framing
32 Forecasting: PECOTA or Not Projection system developed by Nate Silver and Clay Davenport and maintained by Baseball Prospectus employee Rob McQuown. Relies on pools of comparable players, minor league equivalents (MLE) and aging curves to generate a range of projections for each player. Projects Fielding Runs Above Average ( FRAA ) We can add CSAA to FRAA For now let s project CSAA alone...
33 Forecasting Framing: Challenges Limited player pool Rule changes strike zone enforcement actual change to strike zone definition Umpire training they use PITCHf/x Limited Minor League data
34 Forecasting Framing: Aging We may lack enough variance for fielding comps, but we have a good idea of how catchers age from Catching seasons dating to 1988 were used Results consistent with Marchi s study Survivor bias: generate a conservative projection for catchers who don t continue (approx CSAA)
35 Forecasting Framing: Testing 2014 Use the basic * chances for weighting for past seasons Age the weighted value Hope for the best Weighted Correlation r=.797 stderr=.064 RMSE.008 MAE.007 *Std Dev of CSAA ~.10 to.12
36 Forecasting Framing: 2015 Setting each to a 7000 chance season Catcher Run Value Rene Rivera (recently traded to Tampa) 32 Hank Conger (recently traded to Houston) 30 Christian Vazquez (promoted in 2014 by Boston) 28
37 Thank You
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