Trends in Global Fisheries

Transcription

1 Trends in Global Fisheries Likely Causes & Possible Solutions Rainer Froese IFM-GEOMAR Kiel, Germany Presentation at the WTO Forum in Geneva 17 September 2010

2 I gratefully acknowledge permission to use slides from Daniel Pauly, Boris Worm, Ram Myers, and Villy Christensen

3 The Status of Global Fisheries

4 150 Years of Newfoundland Cod Fishery

5 A typical Fishery Fully exploited Percent 50 Developing Overfished Undeveloped Collapsed or closed Years Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002

6 Trends in Global Fisheries 100% 26% 5.1 years 22% 4.1 years Collapsed Percent of World Fisheries 80% 60% 40% 20% Undeveloped 31% 5.0 years Overfished Fully exploited Developing 38% 4.3 years 0% ? Years Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002

7 Out of Current Stocks in 2048? Worm et al., Science 2006 Stocks (%) 2048?

8 Reality Check Catch in % 90% r 2 = % % Percentage 60% 50% 40% C OF FE D U 30% 20% 10% 0% Years Froese et al. 2008, Marine Policy

9 Out of New Stocks in y = x r 2 = Number of new stocks Year Froese et al. 2008, Marine Policy

10 (t/km 2 ) Biomass of Table Fish in 1900 Christensen et al. 2003

11 and in Christensen et al. 2003

12 Catch per 100 Hooks Swordfish Blue Marlin Bluefin Tuna Dolphinfish

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42 The Failure of Management by Governments Trends from Working Group reports by fisheries scientists in government agencies (NMFS, DFO, DIFMAR, IFREMER, etc.), compiled by R. A. Myers.

43 The Failure of Regional Fishing Organizations With thanks to Ram Myers and Boris Worm Recently confirmed by: Cullis-Suzuki & Pauly Failing the high seas: a global evaluation of regional fisheries management organizations. In press with Marine Policy

44 If Corrected for Over-Reporting, Global Catches are Declining Since 1988 (a) 90 El Niño events Global catch (t 10 6 ) El Niño event Uncorrected Corrected Corrected, no anchoveta Watson and Pauly (Nature), 2001.

45 In Summary Global fisheries have drastically reduced the size of their target stocks, typically by 90% since 1950 Global catches are declining since the late 1980s; this decline is masked by misreporting to FAO

46 Legal Considerations

47 Is Overfishing Legal? The Law of the Sea defines the biomass that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (B msy ) as reference point Stocks that are smaller than B msy need to be rebuilt Harvest levels that reduce the stock below B msy are incompatible with the Law of the Sea

48 Cod, Eastern Baltic B MSY SSB and Landings (1000 t) MSY Year Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010

49 Ecosystem Impacts of Fisheries

50 Impact on the Sea Floor before after Photos: Dr. K. Sainsbury, CSIRO

51 Area in NZ accessed by Scallop Trawlers Before

52 Area in NZ accessed by Scallop Trawlers Immediately after first trawling

53 Area in NZ accessed by Scallop Trawlers Three years later (Dayton 1998)

54 Tracks of Trawls courtesy F. Grassle

55 Shrimp Trawlers from Space QuickBird satellite on 20 February 2003, off the coast of Jiangsu province near the mouth of the Yangtze River;

56 And More Trawling for Shrimps

57 Not only in China, also in Texas Here: shrimp trawlers off the Texas Coast, Gulf of Mexico Photo courtesy of Dr. Kyle van Houten (Duke

58 Main Causes for Overfishing Greed Mismanagement Subsidies

59 Fisheries Management Basics Catch in kg and Value/Cost in MEY MSY Economic overfishing Growth overfishing Fishing Effort (hours) Cost of fishing F pa? Recruitment overfishing F lim

60 EU Fisheries Management Catch in kg and Value/Cost in MEY MSY Fishing Effort (hours) Cost of fishing EU 2008: 88% of stocks MEY and MSY overfished Subsidies? F pa? 68% EU stocks beyond F pa F lim

61 Possible Solutions

62 Solution: Phase out Subsidies 60 Subsidy amounts (USD billion) Fuel All except fuel 0 FAO (1992) This study Milazzo (1998) Khan et al. (2006)

63 Removing Subsidies Rebuilds Stocks and Increases Catches in the Mid-term 8000 MSY MEY Cost of fishing Catch in kg and Value/Cost in F pa F lim 0? Fishing Effort (hours)

64 Rebuilding Stocks Pays Off A recent study (Froese et al. in review) shows that European fisheries can produce 60% higher catches if they were managed properly and precautionary (at 0.9 MSY)

65 0.9 MSY Harvest Control Rule B MSY 1.3 B MSY Move stocks here. Landings may then be 60% higher 1.2 Landings / MSY MSY 0.9 MSY Biomass / B MSY Froese et al., submitted

66 Conclusions Fish stocks are declining worldwide Overfishing is drastically changing the marine ecosystems Overfishing is driven by mismanagement and subsidies Fisheries can produce more food, livelihood, profit and taxes if done properly

67 Thank You Rainer Froese IFM-GEOMAR Kiel, Germany Presentation at the WTO Forum in Geneva 17 September 2010