NMFS Science Center Report to the Pacific States Marine Fishery Commission

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "NMFS Science Center Report to the Pacific States Marine Fishery Commission"

Pamela Hood
5 years ago
Views:

1 NMFS Science Center Report to the Pacific States Marine Fishery Commission Kevin Werner, Director, NWFSC Kristen Koch, Acting Director, SWFSC 21 August 2017 Photo: Octavio Aburto

2 Photo: NASA U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 2 Photo:Octavio Aburto

3 Outline: About us Physical Conditions Ecological Responses Forecasting Tools Human Dimensions Preparation for Change Artist: Leslie Bell U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 3

What We Do Conduct scientific monitoring of marine

Conduct research on biological and ecological

Provide information on impacts of climate variability

Develop technology (acoustics, optics, genetics).

Provide science-based advice for management of living

4 What We Do Conduct scientific monitoring of marine ecosystems (distribution, abundance). Conduct research on biological and ecological processes (foraging habits, stock structure, movement patterns). Conduct conservation and fisheries economic studies. Provide information on impacts of climate variability and change. Develop technology (acoustics, optics, genetics). Serve ocean and biological data to the public. Provide science-based advice for management of living marine resources. Support our science mission s administrative and IT needs. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 4

Key Legislative Mandates Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Management Reauthorization Act (MSA) Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) Endangered Species Act (ESA) International Agreements and Partnerships

5 Key Legislative Mandates Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Management Reauthorization Act (MSA) Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) Endangered Species Act (ESA) International Agreements and Partnerships Responsibilities: Maintain healthy fish stocks for commercial, recreational, and subsistence fishing. Conserve and recover populations of protected species. Sustain ecosystem services. Coordinate with domestic and international organizations to implement and monitor fishery agreements and treaties. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 5

6 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 6

California watershed ecosystems, the N. Pacific, Pacific Islands, and Southern Ocean. U.

7 SWFSC Mission Generate the science necessary to manage and conserve the living marine resources of the California Current, the eastern tropical Pacific, and portions of the California watershed ecosystems, the N. Pacific, Pacific Islands, and Southern Ocean. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 7

8 SWFSC by the Numbers: FY17 $40 million base funding $11 million temporary funding Staffing: FTEs: 178 Contractors and Cooperative Institute employees: 140 (approx.) U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 8

9 Faces of SWFSC Over 300 federal, contractor, and Cooperative Institute employees, students, visiting scientists, and more U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 9

NWFSC Mission Our mission is to conduct the science necessary to conserve marine and

California coasts and in the freshwater rivers of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.

decision-makers and natural resource managers build sustainable fisheries, recover

10 NWFSC Mission Our mission is to conduct the science necessary to conserve marine and anadromous species and their habitats off the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts and in the freshwater rivers of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Our research provides reliable, relevant, and credible information to help decision-makers and natural resource managers build sustainable fisheries, recover endangered and threatened species, maintain healthy ecosystems, and protect human health. We are also dedicated to enhancing public awareness, education, and stewardship of our marine resources. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 10

11 NWFSC by the Numbers: FY17 BUDGET STAFFING ~ $60M NOAA ~ $20M outside Interns/Volunteers Associates 117 Contractors FTEs Non-FTEs NOAA Outside U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 11

12 Faces of NWFSC Our federal employees, contractors, associates, interns, and volunteers work in six locations in WA and OR. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 12

13 How We Do It Acoustic & net fish surveys Marine mammal & seabird surveys Oceanographic & meteorological sampling Habitat mapping Sampling technology development U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 13

California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Is the ecosystem healthy?

Product requests A framework for organizing science in order to inform decisions in marine ecosystembased

How vulnerable is the ecosystem to human uses and natural perturbations?

SCENARIOS generate estimates of alternative futures and tradeoffs. What are the management options?

14 California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Is the ecosystem healthy? SCOPING EFFORTS and CONCEPTUAL MODELS frame the issues and then, the next iteration of the IEA loop begins. Product requests A framework for organizing science in order to inform decisions in marine ecosystembased management. (Levin et al. 2009; 2013) Field and remote data provide indices on STATUS AND TRENDS. How vulnerable is the ecosystem to human uses and natural perturbations? IEA PRODUCTS Produce an IEA report Refined conceptual models illustrate the connectivity and inform EBFM. SCENARIOS generate estimates of alternative futures and tradeoffs. What are the management options? RISK ASSESSMENT quantifies and ranks threats to humans and the ecosystem. Sensitivity LOW RISK HIGH RISK Exposure x =? U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 14

15 Physical Conditions: Goodbye Blob and El Niño; Hello...? Artist: Leslie Bell Artist: Leslie Bell U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 15

16 Five Years of Wild Environmental Conditions were dominated by the marine heat wave named the blob was a huge El Niño that had a modest impact on the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Winter was dominated by a string of atmospheric rivers that ended the drought, produced record rainfall, and filled reservoirs. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 16

Shifted to neutral or slightly negative by late 2016 (weak La Niña in winter 2016-17, slightly positive ONI

17 Basin-scale Climate Indices Have Shifted Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) Related to upwelling, coastal currents, storm tracks. Positive ONI = El Niño; Negative ONI = La Niña. Became strongly positive in Shifted to neutral or slightly negative by late 2016 (weak La Niña in winter , slightly positive ONI in summer 2017) U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 17

18 North Pacific Surface Temperature Anomalies Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 The blob Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 El Nino Dec 17 Feb 17 La Nina Apr 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Degrees C U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 18

19 ONI, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) & North Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO) Updated Through June 2017 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 19

Newport, OR San Diego, CA 2016: El Niño penetrated deeper but was short-lived, and had little impact in the

20 Temp. at Depth Plots show temp. anomalies at depth off Newport (NH25) and San Diego (CalCOFI 93.90). El Niño years: dotted lines : Blob dominated at the surface (upper ~100 m). Newport, OR San Diego, CA 2016: El Niño penetrated deeper but was short-lived, and had little impact in the North. ARGO floats in the NE Pacific: U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 20

equivalent in all freshwater ecoregions.

21 Snowpack: Worst (2015) Average* (2016) Abundant (2017) 2015: Record poor snowwater equivalent in all freshwater ecoregions. 2016: Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) near long-term average coastwide. *Warm spring and summer in 2016 caused rapid melt. 2017: Average or better snowpack for most of the western U.S., especially parts of California. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 21

22 Snowpack Rebound U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 22

23 Precipitation Rebound Was Due to Atmospheric Rivers Atmospheric rivers are sinews of moisture from the tropics. The one pictured below appeared over the Northern Pacific on Jan. 3, (NOAA) U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 23

Many ESUs had worsening trends for low-flow periods in summer & fall, esp. in CA.

24 Overall Snowpack & Streamflow Over the Past 10 Years Have Been Discouraging for Salmon Streamflow anomaly time series through 2016, at the scale of Chinook salmon ESUs. Some ESUs are experiencing increasing magnitude of spring maximum flow events. Many ESUs had worsening trends for low-flow periods in summer & fall, esp. in CA. 1-day max flow (winter/spring) 7-day min flow (summer/fall) Recent average Recent trend Recent trend U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 24

Ecological Responses NOAA biologists sort pelagic red crabs, which were unusually abundant off Central California in 2015-2016 (John

25 Ecological Responses NOAA biologists sort pelagic red crabs, which were unusually abundant off Central California in (John Field, SWFSC). Artist: Leslie Bell U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 25

26 Biological Response to Warm Oceans off WA/OR 2015 Tropicals in Oregon 2016 Lowest-ever sockeye return to Fraser River! 2017 Species range extensions from CA to AK. Dramatic changes to food webs. Domoic acid closes crab and clam fisheries! Low coho return. Food webs still unusual mix. Red pelagic crabs in Oregon! Crab and clam fishery closures. Record low spring Chinook & steelhead returns to Columbia. Crab and clam fisheries still closed. Caspian terns abandon East Sand Island colony in mid-season. Young Chinook & coho in ocean very skinny. Abundant juvenile rockfish! Pyrosomes explode! U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 26

Marine Heat Wave + Massive HAB of 2015 The

nowcast, 3-day forecast, and hindcast of

Accuracy, 20% False Positives Dungeness Crab

27 Marine Heat Wave + Massive HAB of 2015 The pre-operational C-HARM system provides a nowcast, 3-day forecast, and hindcast of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms, Particulate Domoic Acid, and Cellular Domoic Acid C-HARM ESTIMATES AT CRUISE STATIONS Domoic Acid 71% Accuracy, 20% False Positives Dungeness Crab Closure! Recreational and Commercial Harvests (Nov-May) NWFSC cruise, June-Sept 2015 Why no toxic event in Southern California? TOO WARM! U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 27

Northern Copepod Biomass Anomaly off of Newport Northern copepods are

Since late 2014, lessfatty Southern copepods have dominated, which is not

Northern copepods typically lag PDO shifts by ~6 months, so recovery from

28 Northern Copepod Biomass Anomaly off of Newport Northern copepods are cool-water, lipid-rich species. Since late 2014, lessfatty Southern copepods have dominated, which is not ideal for forage fish and their predators. Northern copepods typically lag PDO shifts by ~6 months, so recovery from positive PDO conditions may not occur until well into U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 28

29 NWFSC Ocean Salmon Survey: Juvenile Salmon at Low Abundance in 2017 Research supported by: U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 29

4 8 Pyrosomes (Pyrosoma atlanticum) 40 42 44 46 48 8 6 4 2 0 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 pe Flattery Mean per tow WA Columbia R.

2 344.9 1.6 1 0.2 1.4 1 1.8 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 pe Flattery WA Columbia R. New port Florence OR Coos Bay Brookings CA Cape Mendocino 40 42 44 46 48 Pyro 3.5 3 2.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 2

30 4 8 Pyrosomes (Pyrosoma atlanticum) pe Flattery Mean per tow WA Columbia R. New port Florence OR Coos Bay Brookings CA Cape Mendocino Pyro pe Flattery WA Columbia R. New port Florence OR Coos Bay Brookings CA Cape Mendocino Pyro pe Flattery WA Columbia R. New port Florence OR Coos Bay Brookings CA Cape Mendocino Pyro pe Flattery WA Columbia R. New port Florence OR Coos Bay Brookings CA Cape Mendocino Pyro pe Flattery Columbia R WA New port Florence OR Coos Bay Brookings CA Cape Mendocino Pyro Mean number of pyrosomes per tow in 2017 = 11,752! Data from Ric Brodeur. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 30

31 Sardine Assessment Survey Models: Near-Realtime Habitat Maps Can Provide Adaptive Sampling (Predicted Optimal Habitat ) Northward shift/extension of sardine spring habitat, from 2011 to 2015 and Sardine compression toward the northern edge of the habitat U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 31

California Sea Lion Production: Poor in Recent Years 2015 pup count

leading to high stranding/mortality rates.

32 California Sea Lion Production: Poor in Recent Years 2015 pup count (born in June) was down; poor growth from fall 2015 to early 2016, leading to high stranding/mortality rates. This indicates poor foraging conditions for mothers in 2015 and early Photo: Sharon Melin, NOAA Similar findings for other pinniped colonies in this region. However, preliminary 2017 data indicate better abundance and growth for pups born in June Cohort U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 32

33 Forecasting Tools: EcoCast and JSCOPE Artist: Leslie Bell U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 33

34 Dynamic Ocean Management U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 34

EcoCast Fishing zones predicted based on oceanic features, catch potential, and weighted by bycatch risk. Estimated good fishing zones served via web and mobile devices.

35 EcoCast Fishing zones predicted based on oceanic features, catch potential, and weighted by bycatch risk. Estimated good fishing zones served via web and mobile devices. Models to include: target and bycatch species, risk weightings, seasonal forecasting. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 35

36 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 36

37 JSCOPE: Seasonal Forecasts of Oceanography & Fish Distributions JISAO s Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem. Partnership between NOAA, the University of Washington, and regional members of IOOS. Model can make skilled forecasts of oceanographic conditions 6 to 9 months ahead. Temperature, oxygen, chlorophyll, and ocean acidification. These conditions can be associated with key fish and other species. Siedlecki et al. 2016, Scientific Reports 6: U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 37

JSCOPE: Seasonal Forecasts of Oceanography & Fish Distributions Based on the

sardines (Kaplan et al. 2016, Fisheries Oceanography 25:15-27).

Next species to be forecast in JSCOPE will be: Pacific hake distributions

Dungeness crab distributions and meat quality (NOAA MAPP-funded project,

38 JSCOPE: Seasonal Forecasts of Oceanography & Fish Distributions Based on the oceanographic forecasts, model can predict likelihood of presence/absence of sardines (Kaplan et al. 2016, Fisheries Oceanography 25:15-27). Example: JSCOPE forecasts for sardines off of WA and OR in July-August Next species to be forecast in JSCOPE will be: Pacific hake distributions (NOAA FATE-funded project). Dungeness crab distributions and meat quality (NOAA MAPP-funded project, partnering with WDFW, ODFW, Quinault Tribe). U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 38

39 Human Dimensions Fishermen repair a trawl net in San Francisco (Jeremy Notch, SWFSC). U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 39

40 Landings Through 2016 Data from PacFIN (commercial) and RecFIN (recreational). Total landings had dropped in 2015, driven by hake, CPS, squid, crab. Mild rebound in 2016 total landings, driven by hake, crab. But many other fisheries were at fairly low levels (CPS, salmon, groundfish). U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 40

A multi-stakeholder group, including state and NMFS personnel, are working with the CA Dungeness Crab Fishing Gear Working Group to

41 In 2016, 71 separate cases of entangled whales were reported off West Coast, as well as in neighboring countries, with gear from U.S. fisheries. Highest annual total for the U.S. West Coast since NOAA Fisheries started keeping records in A multi-stakeholder group, including state and NMFS personnel, are working with the CA Dungeness Crab Fishing Gear Working Group to develop a Risk Assessment & Mitigation Program (RAMP) on whale entanglement. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 41

42 Other Activities Gear contact with seafloor has declined steadily on most shelf and slope habitat types. Largely due to decline in bottom trawling effort on the slope and shelf, especially north of Cape Mendocino. Shellfish aquaculture production on West Coast is at record level. Finfish aquaculture (= Atlantic salmon) also near historic high; comparable to commercial salmon landings. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 42

43 Fishery Diversification Measures how evenly revenues are distributed across fisheries in which vessels participate. Diversification continues to decline across nearly all regions, vessel sizes, and revenue classes. Average Effective Shannon Index Vessels w/ West Coast & Alaska Revenue >$5K >$5K 2015 Fleet West Coast Vessels by State WA>$5K OR>$5K CA>$5K Small upticks in 2015 due in part to some non-diverse vessels opting not to fish. This type of information could be valuable in anticipating how fleet dynamics change in response to climate or management. Average Effective Shannon Index 3.5 West Coast Vessels by Revenue Class $5K-$25K $25K-$100K >$100K West Coast Vessels by Length Class <=40 Feet Feet Feet U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 43

44 Social Vulnerability in Fishery-Dependent Coastal Communities Composite indices of fishing dependence and social vulnerability for 880 coastal communities. Top five fishing-dependent communities from WA, OR, N CA, C CA, and S CA are shown here, updated through Gives relative idea of how changes in fishing might affect overall community wellbeing at different scales. Social Vulnerability Index (2015) Crescent City Tokeland Garibaldi Ilwaco Coos Bay Eureka Ft Bragg Los Angeles Port Hueneme Half Moon Bay Astoria Bodega Bay Newport Westport Moss Landing Commercial Fishing Dependence (2014) WA OR N CA C CA S CA U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 44

45 Preparation for Change: Ecosystem Approaches U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 45

NMFS Climate Science Strategy: Implement the Tools to Successfully Manage in a Time of Change Climate-Informed Reference Points Robust Management Strategies Adaptive Management Processes Project

46 NMFS Climate Science Strategy: Implement the Tools to Successfully Manage in a Time of Change Climate-Informed Reference Points Robust Management Strategies Adaptive Management Processes Project Future Conditions Understand Mechanisms of Change Track Change and Provide Early Warnings Build and Maintain Adequate Science Infrastructure Each region was tasked with creating a Regional Action Plan that addressed the seven objectives stated in the NCSS document. The Western Regional Action Plan (WRAP) was developed jointly by NWFSC, SWFSC, and the West Coast Region. There are also a Gulf of Alaska RAP and a Bering Sea RAP. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 46

47 Marine Ecosystems Are Integrated Socio-Ecological Systems U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 47

Relation to Ongoing Ecosystem-Related Activities & Context Ecosystem Based Management

Stock Assessment Improvement Plan NCSS NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy (HQ)

HAIP Habitat Assessment Improvement Plan IEA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment U.S.

48 Relation to Ongoing Ecosystem-Related Activities & Context Ecosystem Based Management Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management WRAP Western Regional Action Plan (REGIONAL) SAIP Stock Assessment Improvement Plan NCSS NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy (HQ) FEP Fishery Ecosystem Plan (COUNCIL) CVA Climate Vulnerability Assessment (REGIONAL) HAIP Habitat Assessment Improvement Plan IEA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 48

49 Questions? NOAA Fisheries will be climate ready. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 49

The Blob, El Niño, La Niñas, and North Pacific marine ecosystems

The Blob, El Niño, La Niñas, and North Pacific marine ecosystems Laurie Weitkamp Northwest Fisheries Science Center Newport Field Station NOAA Fisheries Laurie.weitkamp@noaa.gov Bill Peterson s Big Picture: