A wind proxy based on migrating coastal dunes: statistical validation and calibration.

Transcription

1 15. Polish-German Seminar A wind proxy based on migrating coastal dunes: statistical validation and calibration. Svenja E. Bierstedt / Hamburg

2 Outline 1. Baltic Sea wind in literature 2. Project 3. Data 4. Analysis and results 5. Baltic Sea level and dunes 6. Conclusions 2

3 Baltic Sea winds in literature Wind speed: many studies different results: pos. trend between 1960 and mid 90s, but on longer terms rather decadal variations (Rutgersson et al. 2015, Feser et al. 2015) 3

4 Baltic Sea winds in literature Wind speed: many studies different results: pos. trend between 1960 and mid 90s, but on longer terms rather decadal variations (Rutgersson et al. 2015, Feser et al. 2015) Wind direction: fewer studies rather circulation changes Estonia, station data more W/SW winds (Jaagus and Kull 2011) Winter (DJF) 1966/ /08 % years Jaagus and Kull (2011) 4

5 Baltic Sea winds in literature Wind speed: many studies different results: pos. trend between 1960 and mid 90s, but on longer terms rather decadal variations (Rutgersson et al. 2015, Feser et al. 2015) Wind direction: fewer studies rather circulation changes Estonia, station data more W/SW winds (Jaagus and Kull 2011) Winter (DJF) 1966/ /08 % years Jaagus and Kull (2011) Data sets: observations: often inhomogeneous model data: only one possible reality wind proxy: MSLP, damages, sediments 5

6 Project Project: CLISCODE cooperation with UHH (IfGeo) experiences at Sylt expectations 200 years Literature: Clemmensen et al. (2014) since 1860 Skagen Reimann et al. (2010) Holocene Świnoujście Northern Europe Baltic Sea 6

7 Data coastdat2: ( - reanalysis data set - regional climate model (Model: CLM) - based on observations - hourly data 12,8 X 12,8 km - daily mean values used

8 Dunes as wind proxies Is it possible to use internal dune structures as wind proxy? Łeba Dunes: self containing system west to east alignment 8

9 Dunes as wind proxies Is it possible to use internal dune structures as wind proxy? Łeba Dunes: self containing system west to east alignment

10 Dunes as wind proxies Is it possible to use internal dune structures as wind proxy? Łeba Dunes: self containing system west to east alignment Data: coastdat2 Ludwig, J., Lindhorst. S., Bierstedt, S., Betzler C., Borówka, R.K. Coastal dunes as archive of seasonal wind intensity (Łeba, Poland). under revision for Aeolian Research 10

11 Wind speed and number of days 0.5 SON: speed - thickness 0.5 SON: number of days - thickness Correlation 0 Correlation 0 quartz heavy minerals both -0.5 N NE E SE S SW W NW -0.5 N NE E SE S SW W NW 11

12 Wind speed and number of days 0.5 SON: speed - thickness 0.5 SON: number of days - thickness Correlation 0 Correlation 0 quartz heavy minerals both -0.5 N NE E SE S SW W NW -0.5 N NE E SE S SW W NW 0,8 SON west winds 0,8 SON south-west winds Correlation 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Correlation 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,4-0,4-0,8-0, > >10 m/s m/s 12

13 Wind speed and number of days 0.5 SON: speed - thickness 0.5 SON: number of days - thickness Correlation 0 Correlation 0 quartz heavy minerals both Correlation N NE E SE S SW W NW 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 SON west winds Correlation 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,4-0,4 N NE E SE S SW W NW SON south-west winds Model: linear relationship between dune layer thickness and autumn winds from SW (3-5 m/s) and W (>= 5 m/s) validation with LOOM Correlations: SW ; -0,8-0, > >10 m/s m/s 13

14 Baltic Sea level and dune layers

15 Conclusions Dunes as wind proxy Idea of dunes as wind proxies could be statistically validated usage of dendrochronological methods showed acceptable validation values method can be applied for bigger/slower migrating dune systems 15

16 Conclusions Dunes as wind proxy Idea of dunes as wind proxies could be statistically validated usage of dendrochronological methods showed acceptable validation values method can be applied for bigger/slower migrating dune systems Thank you for your attention!! 15

17 Publications: Bierstedt, S.E., Hünicke, B. and Zorita, E. 2015: Variability of wind direction statistics of mean and extreme winds over the Baltic Sea region. Tellus A, 67, Bierstedt, S.E., Hünicke, B., Zorita, E., Wagner, S. and Gomez-Navarro, J.J. (2016): Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations. Clim. Past Discuss. 11, Ludwig, J., Lindhorst, S., Bierstedt, S., Betzler, C., Borówka, R. (2016): Coastal dunes as archive of annual wind intensity (Łeba, Poland), under revision. Bierstedt, S.E., Hünicke, B., Zorita, E., Ludwig, J.: A wind proxy based on migrating coastal dunes: statistical validation and calibration. ready for submission

18 Referenzen Christensen, O., Kjellström, E., and Zorita, E. Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, chapter Projected Change Atmosphere, pages Springer International Publishing, Clemmensen, L. B., Hansen, K. W. T., and Kroon, A. Storminess variation at Skagen, northern Denmark since AD 1860: Relations to climate change and implications for coastal dunes. Aeolian Research, 15: , doi: /j.aeolia Feser, F., Barcikowska, M., Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Weisse, R., and Xia, L. Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe A review. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.,141: , doi: /qj Giorgi, F. and Gutowski Jr., W. Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 40:null, doi: /annurev-environ Jaagus, J. and Kull, A. Changes in surface wind directions in Estonia during and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences, 60: , doi: /earth Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Feser, F., and Weisse, R. Inconsistencies between Long-Term Trends in Storminess Derived from the 20CR Reanalysis and Observations. J. Clim.,26: , doi: /JCLI-D Reimann, T., Tsukamoto, S., Harff, J., Osadczuk, K., and Frechen, M. Reconstruction of Holocene coastal foredune progradation using luminescence dating - An example from the Swina barrier (southern Baltic Sea, NW Poland). Geomorphology, 132:1 16, Rutgersson, A., Jaagus, J., Schenk, F., Stendel, M., Bärring, L., Briede, A., Claremar, B., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Holopainen, J., Moberg, A., Nordli, O., Rimkus, E., and Wibig, J. Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, chapter Recent Change Atmosphere, pages Springer International Publishing, doi: / Seneviratne, S., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sorteberg, A., Vera, C., and Zhang, X. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Technical report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA,

19 Ludwig, J., Lindhorst. S., Bierstedt, S., Betzler C., Borówka, R.K. Coastal dunes as archive of seasonal wind intensity (Łeba, Poland). under revision

20 Schichten Quelle: Juliane Ludwig

21 Ludwig, J., Lindhorst. S., Bierstedt, S., Betzler C., Borówka, R.K. Coastal dunes as archive of seasonal wind intensity (Łeba, Poland). under revision