A Behavioral Theory. Teck H. Ho. & National University of Singapore. Joint Work with Noah Lim, Houston Juanjuan Zhang, MIT. July 2008 Teck H.

Transcription

1 Designing Pricing Contracts for Homo Sapiens: A Behavioral Theory Teck H. Ho University of California, Berkeley & National University of Singapore Joint Work with Noah Lim, Houston Juanjuan Zhang, MIT July 2008 Teck H. Ho 1

2 Outline Research Question Standard Model s Predictions Experimental Tests A Behavioral Theory of Pricing July 2008 Teck H. Ho 2

3 Examples of Pricing Contract Total Cost to Buyer Linear Two-part Tariff Total Cost to Buyer Quantity Three-part ttariff Two-Block Tariff Quantity July 2008 Teck H. Ho 3

4 A Simple Framework Number of Block Single Multiple Fixed Fee No Linear Block-tariff Two-part Three-part Yes Tariff Tariff July 2008 Teck H. Ho 4

5 Research Question Does Format of Pricing Contract Matter Empirically? Total surplus generated from trading Division of surplus (e.g., which format favors the seller) July 2008 Teck H. Ho 5

6 Outline Research Question Standard Model s Predictions Experimental Tests A Behavioral Theory of Pricing July 2008 Teck H. Ho 6

7 A B2B Market Setting Independent Example Manufacturer C = 2 (seller) Retailer (Buyer) Which Type of Pricing Contract to Use? Price (Single) Demand = 10 - price Price July 2008 Teck H. Ho 7

8 Integrated Manufacturer and Retailer Integrated Manufacturer Profits Manufacturer C = 2 16 * Assume equal division 8 O Retailer Price* = Retailer Profits Demand = 10 - price July 2008 Teck H. Ho 8

9 Linear Price Total Cost to Retailer W Linear Quantity Independent Manufacturer C = 2 Manufacturer Profits 16 W*=6 8 A O Retailer Price*= Retailer Profits Demand = 10 - price TtlS Total Surplus (Integrated) (It td)>ttls Total Surplus (Independent) (Id d July 2008 Teck H. Ho 9

10 A Simple Framework Number of Block Single Multiple No Linear Block-tariff Fixed Fee Two-part Yes Three-part Tariff Tariff July 2008 Teck H. Ho 10

11 Two-Part Tariff (TPT-S) Total Cost to Retailer F W Quantity Two-part Tariff Manufacturer C= 2 Manufacturer Profits 16 F, W = 2 F Retailer Price* = 6 Demand = 10 - Price 0 16-F 16 Retailer Profits July 2008 Teck H. Ho 11

12 TPT-O: Quantity Discount (QD) Scheme Average cost = W + F q It is equivalent to two-part tariff with total cost = W q + F The equilibrium choices of W and F are the same as under two-part tariff. July 2008 Teck H. Ho 12

13 Two-Block oc Tariff Total Cost to Retailer W1 W2 Multi-Block Tariff X1 Quantity Manufacturer C= 2 Manufacturer Profits 16 W1, X1<Q*, W2 = 2 M M=(W1-C)X1 Retailer Price* = 6 Demand = 10 - Price 0 16-M 16 Retailer Profits July 2008 Teck H. Ho 13

14 Number of Block: 2B vs. 3B Total Cost to Retailer 2B w2 Total Cost to Retailer w1 3B w2 w1 w0 x1 Quantity x0 x1 Quantity W2 = 2 (2B & 3B) M = (W1-C)X1 (2B) = (W0-C)X0 + (W1-C)(X1-X0) (3B) July 2008 Teck H. Ho 14

15 1. Revenue Equivalence Manufacturer Profits (π M ) 16 X X Y Y 0 Retailer Profits (π R ) 16 X = TPT-S, 2B ; Y = TPT-O, 3B July 2008 Teck H. Ho 15

16 2. Division Equivalence Manufacturer Profits (π M ) X Y 0 Retailer Profits (π R ) X = TPT-S, 2B ; Y = TPT-O, 3B July 2008 Teck H. Ho 16

17 3. Empirical Equivalence Manufacturer Profits (π M ) 16 X = Y 0 Retailer Profits (π R ) 16 X = TPT-S, 2B ; Y = TPT-O, 3B July 2008 Teck H. Ho 17

18 Standard Model s Predictions The wholesales price (the last block) = marginal cost Fixed fee: 1. Efficiency hypothesis: TPT-X > LP 2. Frame invariance hypothesis: TPT-S = TPT-O (e.g., QD) Number of blocks: 1. Efficiency hypothesis: N-block > LP (N>1) 2. N invariance hypothesis: 2-block = 3-block July 2008 Teck H. Ho 18

19 Framing of Fixed Fee Total Pie M s Shar of Pie e % 67% Linear TPT-S TPT-O Fixed Fee and its Framing Linear TPT-S TPT-O Fixed Fee and its Framing July 2008 Teck H. Ho 19

20 Number of Blocks Total Pie M s Shar of Pie e % 67% Number of Block Number of Block July 2008 Teck H. Ho 20

21 Outline Research Question Revenue and Division Equivalence Hypotheses Experimental Tests A Behavioral Theory of Pricing July 2008 Teck H. Ho 21

22 Experimental Design Standard experimental economics methodology Series F experiments (Ho and Zhang, Management Science, 2008) Linear price (LP) Two-part ttariff iff(tpts) (TPT-S) (2-stage decision) i Two-part tariff (TPT-O) (Quantity discount) Series B experiments (Lim and Ho, Marketing Science 2007) Linear price (LP) Two-block tariff (2B) Three-block tariff (3B) Random matching protocol July 2008 Teck H. Ho 22

23 Fixed Fee: Empirical i Regularities 1. W in both TPT-S and TPT-O are above marginal costs. W is higher in TPT-S than in TPT-O 2. Total surplus is lower in TPT-S than in TPT-O 3. Manufacturer s share of channel profits is lower in TPT-S than in TPT-O July 2008 Teck H. Ho 23

24 Fixed Fee: Empirical Regularities Total Pie M s Shar of Pie e % 67% Linear TPT-S TPT-O Fixed Fee and its Framing Linear TPT-S TPT-O Fixed Fee and its Framing July 2008 Teck H. Ho 24

25 Number of Block: Empirical Regularities 4. W2 in both 2B and 3B are above marginal costs. W2 is higher in 2B than in 3B. 5. Total surplus is lower in 2B than in 3B. 6. Manufacturer s share of channel profits is lower in 2B than in 3B. July 2008 Teck H. Ho 25

26 Number of Block: Empirical Regularities e Total Pie H1 H2 M s Shar of Pie 100% 67% H3 H Number of Block Number of Block July 2008 Teck H. Ho 26

27 Outline Research Question Revenue and Division Equivalence Hypotheses Experimental Tests A Behavioral Theory of Pricing July 2008 Teck H. Ho 27

28 Three modeling premises 1. A generalization of the standard model 2. The retailer has a reference-dependent preference a. Loss looms larger than gain (TPT-X) b. Counterfactual payoff matters (2B and 3B) 3. Quantal response equilibrium: The retailer s prob. of mistake is inversely proportional to the cost of mistake July 2008 Teck H. Ho 28

29 Reference-Dependent Preference in TPT-S and TPT-O Manufacturer utility ( w 2)(10 p) + F utility Retailer utility ( p w)(10 p) λ utility F losses F gains (w-c)(d-p) losses -F gains (p-w)(d-p) p) July 2008 Teck H. Ho 29

30 Reference-Dependent Preference in 2B and 3B Let λ be the weight on counterfactual payoff For the 2-Block tariff, the Retailer s Utility is: max 0 p 10 U R = ( p w 2 )(10 p ) λ ( w 1 w 2 ) x 1 The retailer e imagines esthe escenario owhere ethe manufacturer charges the same lower price w 2 for all units Manufacturer knows this and revises her contract offer July 2008 Teck H. Ho 30

31 Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) QRE Model: Allow Retailer to be less than perfectly sensitive to payoffs across blocks (i.e., noisily best respond) Reject Left l 0 U R Right (Last Block) ( q x 1 ) ( q > x 1 ) r U R July 2008 Teck H. Ho 31

32 QRE Model (Cont d) Assume that the retailer follows a multinomial logit choice rule so that the probability of the retailer choosing r γu Right is R e γ U R γu 1 + e + e R Parameter γ captures the sensitivity to differences in monetary payoffs. Manufacturer takes retailer s decision rule into account. Sets the contract by maximizing the following expected profit function: l R r R γu R e l Ε( π M )= l r. π M + γu R γu R 1 + e + e l r γu R e r.π + 1 l r l γu M U γ R γ R 1 + e + e 1 + e + e U R γu r R.0 July 2008 Teck H. Ho 32

33 Actual versus Predicted: Series F Experiments July 2008 Teck H. Ho 33

34 Actual versus Predicted: Series B Experiments - 2Bl Block Variable Actual Data Predictions w w Left Right Reject Conditional i lefficiencyi 80.8% 8% 85.7% m 65.3% 67.9% July 2008 Teck H. Ho 34

35 Actual versus Predicted: Series B Experiments - 3Block Variable Actual Data Predictions W w Left Right Reject Conditional i Efficiency i 95.1% 96.0% m 72.7% 77.4% July 2008 Teck H. Ho 35

36 Summary The standard model failed to predict subject behaviors well Both framing of fixed fee and number of blocks (when N > 1) matter By yallowing reference-dependent eee cedepe preferences e e and mistakes, the behavioral theory can account for all 6 regularities well July 2008 Teck H. Ho 36

37 Future Research A mini field application project at HP Field data (B2B pricing contract data from HP) B2C settings (mobile phone plans, 3-block tariffs) July 2008 Teck H. Ho 37

38 HP Printing Division Go-to-Market Strategy Design and Analysis Business Objective Optimize incentives for IPG new product business Policy Issues Fixed vs. % target before discount kicks in 2-block versus 3-block tariffs Research Results Fixed threshold better quantity discount policy 3-block is better for several retailers Business Results HP adopted all recommendations Experimental Design Stanford students as subjects held at HP Labs One new and one old product in IPG Commercial Value-added Reseller Program Demand model calibrated with business inputs Reseller competence / sales activity modeling July February Teck H. Ho Demand drivers

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41 Equilibrium Channel Efficiency July 2008 Teck H. Ho 41

42 Equilibrium Channel Efficiency Total Channel Profits Block 2-Block July 2008 Teck H. Ho 42