2018 NorthWestern Energy Montana 20-Year Load Forecast ETAC February 28, 2018 (Subject to Revision)
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1 2018 NorthWestern Energy Montana 20-Year Load Forecast ETAC February 28, 2018 (Subject to Revision) 1
2 Table of Contents Peak and Energy Forecast Drivers (modeled) 1. Customer forecast 2. Normal weather forecast 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) and Navigant Net Energy Metering (NEM) forecast Peak and Energy Forecasts 4. Peak demand forecast 5. Energy forecast 6. Past load forecasts review 2
3 1. Customer forecast
4 Customer forecast methodology Customer Forecast Population Forecast Woods & Poole Economics Montana and NWE service territory forecasted population growth rate: 20-year average 0.9% but marginally declines throughout forecast Customer Forecast Methodology Residential & GS1 Secondary customer forecasts are based on regression models using NWE service territory population and, for GS1 Secondary, service territory total employment as the explanatory variables GS1 Primary customers grow at 1 customer per year to reflect historical growth All other customer classes held constant at 2017 actual levels 4
5 Default Supply load by class
6 NWE service territory population drivers Largest 7 Counties in NWE Service Territory Population Growth Rates 3.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 6
7 Montana people per household Montana People per Household source: Woods & Poole
8 NWE MT population projection scenarios 2018 Montana Population Forecast Scenarios LOW CASE BASE CASE HIGH CASE 1/2 Base Case Growth Woods & Poole Projection 1 1/2 Base Case Growth MT Pop % Growth Net Inc MT Pop % Growth Net Inc MT Pop % Growth Net Inc ,051, % 9,660 1,051, % 9,660 1,051, % 9, ,056, % 4,879 1,061, % 9,757 1,066, % 14, ,061, % 4,910 1,071, % 9,866 1,080, % 14, ,066, % 4,928 1,080, % 9,948 1,095, % 15, ,071, % 4,956 1,091, % 10,051 1,111, % 15, ,076, % 4,976 1,101, % 10,138 1,126, % 15, ,081, % 4,993 1,111, % 10,220 1,142, % 15, ,086, % 5,012 1,121, % 10,306 1,158, % 15, ,091, % 5,016 1,132, % 10,361 1,174, % 16, ,096, % 5,013 1,142, % 10,403 1,190, % 16, ,101, % 5,004 1,152, % 10,431 1,206, % 16, ,106, % 4,992 1,163, % 10,454 1,223, % 16, ,111, % 4,978 1,173, % 10,472 1,239, % 16, ,116, % 4,967 1,184, % 10,495 1,256, % 16, ,120, % 4,879 1,194, % 10,354 1,272, % 16, ,125, % 4,787 1,204, % 10,204 1,289, % 16, ,130, % 4,711 1,214, % 10,084 1,305, % 16, ,135, % 4,633 1,224, % 9,959 1,321, % 16, ,139, % 4,556 1,234, % 9,834 1,337, % 15, ,144, % 4,487 1,244, % 9,723 1,353, % 15, ,148, % 4,424 1,254, % 9,624 1,368, % 15, ,152, % 4,362 1,263, % 9,525 1,384, % 15, Avg 0.4% 4, % 10, % 15, Avg 0.9% 8, % 8, % 8,367 Montana averaged 8,367 net new people
9 NWE service territory population projections 2018 NorthWestern Energy Service Territory Population Forecast Scenarios LOW CASE BASE CASE HIGH CASE 1/2 Base Case Growth Woods & Poole Projection 1 1/2 Base Case Growth NWE ST % Growth Net Inc NWE ST % Growth Net Inc NWE ST % Growth Net Inc , % 7, , % 7, , % 7, , % 3, , % 7, , % 11, , % 3, , % 7, , % 11, , % 3, , % 7, , % 11, , % 3, , % 7, , % 11, , % 3, , % 7, , % 12, , % 3, , % 7, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 8, , % 12, , % 3, , % 7,952 1,007, % 12, , % 3, , % 7,852 1,019, % 12, , % 3, , % 7,756 1,032, % 12, , % 3, , % 7,654 1,044, % 12, , % 3, , % 7,563 1,056, % 12, , % 3, , % 7,480 1,069, % 12, , % 3, , % 7,401 1,081, % 12, Avg 0.4% 3, % 7, % 12, Avg 0.9% 6, % 6, % 6,587 9
10 MT population projections 2018 MT Population Projection Scenarios 1,450,000 1,400,000 1,350,000 1,300,000 1,250,000 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000, /2 Base Case Growth Woods & Poole Projection 1 1/2 Base Case Growth 10
11 Residential customer forecast scenarios 2018 Residential Customer Forecast Summary 11 Population Scenario Low Base High 2017A 295, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 0.6% 1.1% 1.6%
12 Residential customer forecast scenarios 430, Residential Customer Forecast Scenarios (by Population Scenario) 410, , , , , , , , , A Low Base High 12
13 Residential customer-additions forecast 2018 Residential Customer Additions Forecast Population Scenario Low Base High 2017A 4,078 4,078 4, ,870 3,648 5, ,788 3,593 5, ,794 3,621 5, ,803 3,657 5, ,811 3,689 5, ,816 3,717 5, ,821 3,745 5, ,822 3,764 5, ,820 3,777 5, ,817 3,788 5, ,812 3,794 5, ,806 3,799 5, ,801 3,806 6, ,768 3,752 5, ,734 3,697 5, ,705 3,650 5, ,677 3,605 5, ,648 3,558 5, ,622 3,516 5, ,598 3,477 5, ,575 3,440 5, Avg 1,752 3,672 5, Avg 3,379 3,379 3,379 13
14 GS1 Secondary customer forecast scenarios 2018 GS1 Secondary Customer Forecast Summary 14 Population Scenario Low Base High 2017A 66,323 66,323 66, ,016 67,409 67, ,730 68,523 69, ,447 69,643 70, ,165 70,771 72, ,887 71,909 73, ,612 73,053 75, ,335 74,202 77, ,058 75,354 78, ,780 76,508 80, ,498 77,662 82, ,214 78,817 83, ,925 79,969 85, ,635 81,121 86, ,333 82,258 88, ,022 83,381 90, ,702 84,491 91, ,373 85,588 93, ,036 86,673 94, ,692 87,749 96, ,343 88,814 98, ,989 89,873 99, % 0.9% 1.4% 1.9%
15 GS1 Secondary customer forecast scenarios 100, GS1 Secondary Customer Forecast Scenarios (by Population Scenario) 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60, A Low Base High 15
16 GS1 Secondary customer-additions forecast 2018 GS1 Secondary Customer Additions Forecast Population Scenario Low Base High 2017A ,086 1, ,114 1, ,121 1, ,128 1, ,137 1, ,145 1, ,148 1, ,152 1, ,154 1, ,154 1, ,155 1, ,152 1, ,152 1, ,137 1, ,123 1, ,110 1, ,097 1, ,085 1, ,075 1, ,066 1, ,059 1, Avg 701 1,125 1, Avg
17 Total NWE customer forecast comparison Total NWE Electric Customers 500, % Forecast Growth 450, , Frcst 350, Frcst 2017 Frcst 2018 Frcst 300,000 Actual Forecast 250, ,000 Total Customers
18 Residential customer forecast comparison Residential Customers 400, , % Forecast Growth 360, , , Frcst 2016 Frcst 300, Frcst 2018 Frcst 280, ,000 Actual Forecast 240, , ,000 Customers
19 ,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 GS1 Sec customer forecast comparison GS1 Secondary Customers 1.4% Forecast Growth 2015 Frcst 2016 Frcst 2017 Frcst 2018 Frcst Actual Forecast Customers 19
20 Population & customer counts summary Year Montana Population Annual Growth Rate NWE Srvc Territory Population Annual Growth Rate NWE Total Accounts Annual Growth Rate NWE Residential Accounts Annual Growth Rate NWE GS1 Secondary Accounts Annual Growth Rate , , , ,784 49, , % 734, % 315, % 253, % 55, % , % 774, % 338, % 270, % 60, % ,028, % 805, % 359, % 287, % 64, % ,080, % 844, % 383, % 306, % 69, % ,132, % 884, % 407, % 324, % 75, % ,184, % 925, % 432, % 343, % 81, % ,234, % 964, % 456, % 362, % 86, % ,282, % 1,001, % 479, % 379, % 91, % 20
21 2. Normal weather forecast
22 Total degree days Total Degree Days (HDD + CDD) Heating degree day (HDD) = 65 - daily average temp Cooling degree day (CDD) = daily average temp - 65 Prior years forecasts used historical total degree days (1989 current year) Beginning with 2017 forecast, normal weather equals 10-year historical average total degree days 22
23 Climate metrics pointing warmer 10,000 9,000 8,000 NWE Montana Electric HDD 9 Station Weighted Avg 10,000 9,000 8,000 NWE Montana Electric Total Degree Days 9 Station Weighted Avg 7,000 6,000 Linear (HDD) 7,000 6,000 Linear (Total DD) 5,000 5,000 4,000 4, NWE Montana Electric CDD 9 Station Weighted Avg NWE Montana Avg Temperature 9 Station Weighted Avg Linear (CDD) (F) since 2005, higherhighs and higher lows Linear (Avg Temp)
24 24 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 Total degree day forecast Total Degree Day Forecast 10 Year Average Actual Forecast 8,094 7,997 7,937 Total Degree Days Year Avg 20 Year Avg 30 Year Avg
25 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) and Net Energy Metering (NEM)
26 DSM plan - Energy and Peak forecasts incorporate new 20- year DSM plan of 4 amw/year (78 amw ) - The old DSM plan consisted of 6 amw/year (84 amw ) 26
27 DSM plans summary 2009 DSM Plan 2017 DSM Plan Combined Plans 15 Years / 84 amw 20 Years / 78 amw 27 Years / 120 amw Annual Annual Cumulative Annual Annual Cumulative Annual Annual Cumulative amw MWh MWh amw MWh MWh amw MWh MWh ,180 48, ,106 38, ,180 48, , , ,106 76, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,146 Total , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,272 Total , , , , , , , , , , , ,025 1,016, ,025 1,049,448 Total ,049,448 27
28 DSM peak shaving contribution New DSM Plan Peak Shaving Forecast Including Losses Peak Shaving Cumulative Winter Summer DSM December July amw MW MW
29 Total net metering Total Net Meter Installed Capacity Total Net Meter Customers MW ,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Photovoltaic Wind Other (hydro) Photovoltaic Wind Other (hydro) Total Net Meter Annual Growth Rates Total Net Meter Annual Energy Generation 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% MWh 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Capacity MW Customers Photovoltaic Wind Other (hydro) 29
30 Solar-PV net metering Solar PV Installed Capacity Solar PV Customers MW Jan 18 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , Jan 18 Residential Commercial Residential Commercial Solar PV Annual Growth Rates Solar PV Annual New Customer Additions 35.0% % % % % % % % Jan 18 Capacity MW Customers Residential Commercial 30
31 Net-Meter system cost trend $9,000 Net Meter System Cost of Installation Trend $8,000 $7,000 $/kw $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,
32 Net Meter solar PV forecast scenarios Solar PV Net Meter Forecast > Based on Navigant NEM Study (Navigant's solar net meter penetration forecast informed by NREL's penetration study in 2017) Installed Capacity (MW) Growth Assumptions Low Growth Case Base Growth Case High Growth Case Residential Commercial Total Growth Residential Commercial Total Growth Residential Commercial Total Growth % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 32
33 Net Meter solar PV forecast scenarios Residential Solar PV Forecast Installed Capacity (MW) Commercial Solar PV Forecast Installed Capacity (MW) MW MW Low Growth Case Base Growth Case High Growth Case Low Growth Case Base Growth Case High Growth Case Total Solar PV Net Meter Medium Case Forecast Installed Capacity (MW) MW Residential Commercial
34 Net Meter solar PV contribution to summer peak Solar PV Net Meter Forecast Contribution to NWE Peak Load (MW) Excludes Losses Peak Capacity Factor for MT (SPP Model) 52% 34 Contribution to Summer Peak Low Base High In
35 Net Meter solar PV contribution to annual energy Solar PV Net Meter Forecast > Based on Navigant NEM Study (Navigant's solar net meter penetration forecast informed by NREL's penetration study in 2017) Energy Production (MWh) Excludes Losses Capacity Factor 15% Low Growth Case Base Growth Case High Growth Case Residential Commercial Total Growth Residential Commercial Total Growth Residential Commercial Total Growth ,611 1,539 4,150 2,611 1,539 4,150 2,611 1,539 4, ,198 1,887 5,085 23% 3,198 1,887 5,085 23% 3,198 1,887 5,085 23% ,293 2,237 6,530 28% 4,293 2,237 6,530 28% 4,293 2,237 6,530 28% ,625 2,868 8,761 34% 5,625 2,868 8,761 34% 5,625 2,868 8,761 34% ,408 3,650 10,982 25% 7,408 3,650 10,982 25% 7,408 3,650 10,982 25% ,908 4,668 15,795 44% 9,908 4,668 15,795 44% 9,908 4,668 15,795 44% ,169 7,007 22,175 40% 18,675 6,981 25,656 62% 22,487 6,649 29,136 84% ,178 9,810 29,988 35% 29,687 12,652 42,339 65% 39,896 14,795 54,691 88% ,918 13,250 39,169 31% 43,018 20,764 63,782 51% 60,744 27,651 88,395 62% ,284 18,217 49,501 26% 55,800 34,716 90,516 42% 79,041 52, ,531 49% ,926 24,385 61,310 24% 66,573 52, ,204 32% 91,149 85, ,098 35% ,946 32,714 74,661 22% 75,297 71, ,577 23% 101, , ,494 23% ,987 43,135 90,122 21% 81,145 91, ,047 18% 106, , ,972 17% ,382 56, ,605 21% 88, , ,782 14% 118, , ,960 12% ,241 71, ,136 19% 93, , ,251 12% 127, , ,367 9% ,451 89, ,970 18% 100, , ,229 10% 139, , ,487 7% , , ,346 15% 106, , ,956 8% 150, , ,567 6% , , ,971 11% 111, , ,312 6% 160, , ,653 4% , , ,768 9% 114, , ,206 5% 168, , ,645 3% , , ,915 8% 119, , ,952 4% 176, , ,990 2% , , ,329 6% 123, , ,192 4% 183, , ,055 2% , , ,241 5% 127, , ,918 3% 190, , ,596 2% , , ,914 4% 131, , ,399 3% 196, , ,884 2% , , ,024 3% 135, , ,671 2% 203, , ,318 2% , , ,563 2% 139, , ,417 2% 211, , ,270 2% , , ,484 2% 144, , ,406 2% 219, , ,328 2% , , ,553 1% 149, , ,393 2% 228, , ,233 2% 35
36 4. Peak demand forecast
37 Peak demand forecast methodology Peak Demand Forecast Methodology Regression For the summer peak forecast, peak-day max temperature, monthly energy, and customers used as explanatory variables» 10-year average peak-day max temperatures assumed in forecast For the winter peak forecast, peak-day heating degree days, monthly energy, and customers used as explanatory variables» 10-year average peak-day heating degree days assumed in forecast 37
38 Summer peak forecast results Historic and Forecast Values Include Losses Summer 2018 Less Less 2018 Regression DSM 2 NEM 1,2 Forecast Avg Growth Rate 1.1% 0.2% Avg Increase (MW) Navigant medium case solar pv net meter forecast 2 Incremental DSM and NEM
39 Summer peak forecast results Summer Peak Forecast Comparison Including DSM & NEM MW Forecast 2017 Forecast 2015 Forecast
40 Summer peak forecast regression results Summer Peak Regression Results R Square = Actual & Regression MW Actual Forecast Fitted Average Load Factor (70%) 40
41 Winter peak forecast results Historic and Forecast Values Include Losses Winter 2018 Less Less 2018 Regression DSM NEM 1,2 Forecast Avg Growth Rate 0.9% 0.5% Avg Increase (MW) No NEM impact on Winter peak assumed 2 Incremental DSM
42 Winter peak forecast results Winter Peak Forecast Comparison Including DSM MW Forecast 2017 Forecast 2015 Forecast
43 Winter peak forecast regression results Winter Peak Regression Results R Square = MW Actual Forecast Actual & Regression Fitted Average Load Factor (72%) 43
44 summer vs winter peak forecast 2018 Winter vs Summer Peak Forecast Including DSM & NEM MW Winter Summer
45 summer vs winter peak forecast 2015 Winter vs Summer Peak Forecast Including DSM MW Winter Summer
46 5. Energy forecast
47 Energy forecast methodology Energy Forecast Methodology For forecast years , Residential & GS1 Secondary load forecasts based on regression model using customer counts and 10-year average degree days (normal weather) as explanatory variables For forecast years , Residential & GS1 Secondary load forecasts based upon NorthWestern s 5-year plan to capture short-term drivers of electric load growth, such as Bozeman area growth, and to transition from actual loads better All other customer classes based on recent actuals or averages, with known changes applied 47
48 Default supply forecast 20-Year Default Load, Incremental DSM, and Incremental NEM Forecasts Default Load Excluding Future DSM & NEM Incremental DSM Energy Savings Incremental NEM - Photovoltaic Incremental NEM - Photovoltaic Default Load Including Future DSM & NEM amw amw Installed MW 15% CF amw Avg Growth Rate 1.0% 15.2% 18.9% 18.9% 0.4% All values include losses except NEM - Photovoltaic Installed MW 48
49 20-year load forecast NorthWestern Energy Long-term Load Forecast Includes Losses, DSM, and Solar PV-NEM Year Total Control Area Annual Growth Rate Default Supply Annual Growth Rate Industrial Annual Growth Rate Commercial Annual Growth Rate Residential Annual Growth Rate ,361,848 5,624,145 3,030,843 2,987,179 2,149, ,815, % 5,980, % 3,168, % 3,230, % 2,244, % ,953, % 6,218, % 2,870, % 3,401, % 2,518, % ,280, % 6,434, % 3,078, % 3,454, % 2,555, % ,557, % 6,758, % 4,038, % 3,582, % 2,743, % ,728, % 6,828, % 4,145, % 3,607, % 2,781, % ,841, % 6,942, % 4,145, % 3,656, % 2,846, % ,993, % 7,094, % 4,145, % 3,743, % 2,910, % 20 YR CAGR 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 49
50 Default supply forecast Total Energy Supply Load - Actual and Forecast At the meter before losses, forecast includes DSM & NEM 7,500, % Forecast Growth 7,000,000 6,500,000 MWh 6,000,000 5,500, Frcst 2016 Frcst 2017 Frcst 2018 Frcst 5,000,000 Actual - Not Weather Normalized Forecast - Weather Normalized 4,500,000 4,000,
51 Residential forecast Residential Load - Actual & Forecast At the meter before losses, forecast includes DSM & NEM 2,900, % Forecast Growth 2,700,000 2,500,000 MWh 2,300, Frcst 2016 Frcst 2017 Frcst 2018 Frcst 2,100,000 1,900,000 Actual - Not Weather Normalized Forecast - Weather Normalized 1,700,000 1,500,
52 GS1 Secondary forecast GS1 Secondary Load - Actual & Forecast At the meter before losses, forecast includes DSM & NEM 3,800, % Forecast Growth 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200, Frcst MWh 3,000,000 2,800, Frcst 2017 Frcst 2018 Frcst 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 Actual - Not Weather Normalized Forecast - Weather Normalized 2,000,
53 53 Default supply load and DSM/NEM forecast
54 Residential use per customer Residential Weather Normalized Use Per Customer Forecast Includes DSM & NEM MWh / Customer
55 Residential use per customer Residential Actual Use Per Customer MWh / Customer
56 GS1 Secondary use per customer GS1 Sec Weather Normalized Use Per Customer Forecast Includes DSM & NEM MWh / Customer
57 GS1 Secondary use per customer GS1 Secondary Actual Use Per Customer MWh / Customer
58 58
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