WB Funding Needs and Options for HCFC and HFC Phase-out: Results from modeling impact, co-benefits and costs

Transcription

1 WB Funding Needs and Options for HCFC and HFC Phase-out: Results from modeling impact, co-benefits and costs Thanavat Junchaya MP Coordination, World Bank International Sustainable Cooling Conference & 5 th COOL Workshop, November 2018

2 RAC sectors identified for short-term action and scale-up Room airconditioning Large industrial / commercial refrigeration Small standalone commercial refrigeration Mobile airconditioning

3 What-if impact on refrigerant transition and EE penetration with targeted interventions 100% Refrigerant Transition - BAU 50% High EE Penetration Rate 0% 100% % 80% R-407C R-410A HFC-32 70% 60% 50% 40% 100% Refrigerant Transition - Intervention 30% 20% 10% 0% BAU: high EE penetration rate Intervention: high EE penetration rate 50% 0% R-407C R-410A HFC-32 HC-290

4 Modeling framework Refrigerant charge size Annual leakage rate Equipment lifetime Power input Operating hours and days Cost of intervention on refrigerant transition & EER improvements Estimated global population of RAC equipment in A-5 countries for each sector Distribution by refrigerant Distribution by baseline and high EE unit Business as usual scenario Equipment growth forecast (CAGR or other estimates) Refrigerant transition EER improvement Intervention on refrigerant transition and EER improvements Increases in zero-, low-, and lower-gwp equipment Increases in higher EER equipment Direct & indirect emission Emission avoided from interventions Price of CO 2 avoided ($/ton)

5 Baseline data & assumption Room AC Stand-alone commercial refrigeration Large industrial / commercial refrigeration Baseline model 12,000 BTU/hr Small stand alone unit 500 ton chiller Direct expansion Annual production 145 million 74% R-410A 26% R-407C 9.2 million 50% R-134a 50% R-404A 9, % R-134a MAC 43 million 99% R-134a 1% R-1234yf Growth rate (%) Charge size (kg) Annual leakage rate* (%) Power input (kw) Fuel consumption 10.5 km/l Operating hours/days 8/200 24/365 16/200 Annual mileage 7,800 km/year Lifetime (years) Low-GWP alternatives R-32, R-290 R-600a, R-513A R-513A, HFOs R-1234yf, SL (152a, 1234yf) * Including no recovery of refrigerant at end-of-life disposal

6 Funding Needs and Options for Additional Cobenefits Modeling scenarios in 4 subsectors confirms that energy and climate benefits of accelerating conversion are substantial: a conservative estimated price ranging from $11/ton of carbon in small commercial refrigeration to $36/ton in MAC. Subsector/ Application Total HFCs at Baseline (kton) Manufacturing Conversion Cost (US$ m) Total EE Units by 2030 (million) Demand Total IOC (consumer) (US$ m) Total CO2 Emissions Avoided (M tco2) Price of CO2 (US$/ton) Room Air-conditioning , ,453 3, Small Stand-alone Commercial Refrigeration Large Industrial/ Commercial Refrigeration Mobile air-conditioning ,119 3, , ,

7 Funding Needs and Options for Additional Cobenefits 30% EE improvement with transition to lower-gwp refrigerant: MP, Climate Benefits and Energy Savings Subsector/ Application Room Air-conditioning Small Stand-alone Commercial Refrigeration Large Industrial/Commercial Refrigeration Sectors and Areas of Use Urban, Buildings, Households Urban, Food Cold Chain Agriculture, Food Cold Chain, Industry HFCs Phased Down (ktonnes) Annually Cumulative CO 2 Emissions Avoided (Direct & Indirect) m ton Cumulative Energy Savings ( ) (GWh) Avoided Cost of New Power Generation (US$ b)* ,025 4,246, ,596 8,270, ,