AEO 2007 Projections. John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, EFG 2007 Meeting 1

Transcription

1 AEO 2007 Projections John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 EFG 2007 Meeting 1

2 Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, billion kilowatthours 2,000 Commercial Residential 1,500 1,000 Industrial Res 1.3%/yr, Com 2.0%/yr 500 Indy 0.6%/yr History Projections EFG 2007 Meeting 2

3 1.2 Residential Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, index, 1990= Technology Reference High Technology History Projections EFG 2007 Meeting 3

4 Residential Electricity Consumption per Capita, index 1980 = Technology AEO 2007 Reference High Technology EFG 2007 Meeting 4

5 7 6 Residential Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2005, 2015, and 2030 quadrillion Btu Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels EFG 2007 Meeting 5

6 Efficiency Indicators for Selected Residential Appliances, 2005 and index, 2005 stock efficiency= Stock, Best Available Technology Case Stock, 2006 Technology Case Stock Natural Gas Furnaces Central Air Conditioners Refrigerators New Building Shell Efficiency EFG 2007 Meeting 6

7 1.5 Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, index, 1980= Technology High Technology 1.0 Reference 0.5 History Projections EFG 2007 Meeting 7

8 Commercial Delivered Electricity Consumption per Capita, index 1980 = Technology AEO 2007 Reference High Technology EFG 2007 Meeting 8

9 7 6 5 Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel,2005, 2015, and 2030 quadrillion Btu Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels EFG 2007 Meeting 9

10 Efficiency Indicators for Selected Commercial Energy End Users, 2005 and index, 2005 stock efficiency= Stock, Best Available Technology Case 2030 Stock, 2006 Technology Case Stock Natural Gas Heating Electric Cooling Lighting Refrigeration EFG 2007 Meeting 10

11 Average U.S. Retail Electricity Prices, cents per kilowatthour Nominal Cents History Projections EFG 2007 Meeting 11

12 What s New With Small End Uses John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

13 Residential End Use Services Heating Cooling Water Heating Refrigeration Freezers Cooking Clothes Drying Clothes Washing Coffee Makers Handheld Rechargeables Lighting Dishwashers Televisions PCs Furnace Fans Spas Security Systems Home Audio Microwaves Ceiling Fans EFG 2007 Meeting 13

14 Commercial End Use Services Heating Cooling Water Heating Ventilation Refrigeration Cooking Lighting Office Equipment (PCs) Office Equipment (non-pcs) Other EFG 2007 Meeting 14

15 Commercial End Use Services within Other Electricity Coffee Makers Distribution Transformers Non-road Electric Vehicles Medical Imaging Elevators & Escalators Municipal Water Services Miscellaneous Services Combined Heat and Power Natural Gas Miscellaneous Services Distillate Fuel Oil Combined Heat and Power Miscellaneous Services EFG 2007 Meeting 15

16 EFG 2007 Meeting 16

17 EFG 2007 Meeting 17

18 EFG 2007 Meeting 18

19 EFG 2007 Meeting 19

20 Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Residential Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kwh) Coffee Makers Home Audio Ceiling Fans Microwave Ovens Security Systems Spas Set-top Boxes Color TVs DVDs/VCRs Electricity Use Hand-held Rechargeable Devices Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied Other Miscellaneous Uses Total Miscellaneous Total Residential Sector Electricity Use , , ,896.5 EFG 2007 Meeting

21 Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Commercial Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kwh) Coffee Makers X-ray Machines Electricity Use Distribution Transformers Non-road Electric Vehicles Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) Computed Tomography (CT) Scanners Elevators and Escalators (separate in report) Water Supply: Distribution Water Supply: Purification Wastewater Treatment Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied Other Miscellaneous Uses Total Miscellaneous Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use , , ,061.6 EFG 2007 Meeting

22 Electricity Use and Market Share for Televisions by Type, 2005 and 2015 Television Type Screen Size (inches) Active Power Draw (watts) Market Share (Percent) Analog < > Digital, <40 96 <1 34 Standard Definition > <1 <1 Digital, < Enhanced or High Definition > EFG 2007 Meeting 22

23 Saturation Forecasts John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

24 Electric Space Heating Saturation 65% 60% 55% 50% UEC: kwh kwh 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% UEC: kwh kwh US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 24

25 100% Central AC and Heat Pump Saturation 95% 90% 85% 80% UEC: kwh kwh 75% 70% 65% 60% UEC: kwh kwh 55% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 25

26 25% Room Air Conditioner Saturation 23% 20% 18% UEC: kwh kwh 15% 13% 10% 8% UEC: kwh kwh 5% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 26

27 2.75 Ceiling Fans per Household 2.50 UEC: kwh kwh UEC: kwh kwh US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 27

28 6.00 TVs and Set-Top Boxes per Household UEC: kwh kwh US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 28

29 0.90 Electric Cooking Saturation 0.80 UEC: kwh kwh UEC: kwh kwh US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 29

30 Microwave Oven Saturation 100% 99% 98% 97% UEC: kwh kwh 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 30

31 0.66 Coffee Maker Saturation UEC: kwh kwh US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 31

32 1.20 Refrigerators per Household UEC: kwh kwh UEC: kwh kwh US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 32

33 35% Freezer Saturation 33% UEC: kwh kwh 31% 29% 27% UEC: kwh kwh 25% 23% 21% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 33

34 75% Dishwasher Saturation 70% 65% 60% 55% UEC: kwh kwh 50% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 34

35 90% Clothes Washer Saturation 85% UEC: kwh kwh 80% 75% 70% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 35

36 85% Electric Clothes Dryer Saturation 80% 75% 70% UEC: kwh kwh 65% 60% UEC: kwh kwh 55% 50% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 36

37 75% Electric Water Heater Saturation 70% 65% 60% UEC: kwh kwh 55% 50% 45% 40% UEC: kwh kwh 35% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 37

38 100% Personal Computer Saturation 95% 90% UEC: kwh kwh 85% 80% 75% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 38

39 60 Lights per Household UEC: kwh kwh UEC: kwh kwh US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 39

40 Home Audio Saturation 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% UEC: kwh kwh 83% 82% 81% 80% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 40

41 50% Home Security System Saturation 45% 40% 35% UEC: kwh kwh 30% 25% 20% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 41

42 5% Portable Electric Spa (Hot Tub) Saturation 4% 3% 2% UEC: kwh kwh 1% 0% US AVG So. Atl. EFG 2007 Meeting 42

43 A Change in the Weather Changing HDD/CDD Normals John Cymbalsky Presentation to EFG May 3, 2007 EFG 2007 Meeting 43

44 AEO 2007 Reference Case Normal Based on Average NOAA Data Adjusted for State Population Weights Post-2000 Census Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Change Over Projection Period Based on State Population Shifts ( ) Cooling Degree-Days Increase 8.3 percent Heating Degree-Days Decrease 4.3 percent EFG 2007 Meeting 44

45 Weather Scenarios Scenario 1: 10 Year Rolling Average Cooling Degree-Days Increase 5% in 2030 Heating Degree-Days Decrease 5% in 2030 Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.2% in 2030 Carbon Emissions Increase 0.2% in 2030 Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030 Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 0.5% in 2030 Cooling Energy Increases 5.2% in 2030 Heating Energy Decreases 3.8% in 2030 Total Energy Expenditures Decrease <1% in 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 45

46 Weather Scenarios - Continued Scenario 2: Trendline Roughly Similar to ORNL 3 degree increase by 2025 scenario Cooling Degree-Days Increase 30% in 2030 Heating Degree-Days Decrease 21% in 2030 Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030 Carbon Emissions Unchanged in 2030 Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.7% in 2030 Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 1.1% in 2030 Cooling Energy Increases 29.6% in 2030 Heating Energy Decreases 14.2% in 2030 Total Energy Expenditures Increase <1% in 2030 EFG 2007 Meeting 46

47 Cooling Degree Days CDD-30 YEAR (AEO) CDD-10 YEAR ROLL CDD-TREND EFG 2007 Meeting 47

48 Heating Degree Days HDD-30 YEAR (AEO) HDD-10 YEAR ROLL HDD-TREND EFG 2007 Meeting 48

49 Change in Energy Consumption, 2030 (quadrillion Btu) Scenario 1: 10-Year Moving Average Buildings Electric Generators Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total EFG 2007 Meeting 49

50 Change in Energy, 2030 (quadrillion Btu) Scenario 2: Trendline Buildings Electric Generators Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total EFG 2007 Meeting 50

51 Electricity Sales in Alternative Warming Scenarios (billion kilowatthours) 6,000 5,000 reference 30-year rolling 10-year trend Warming impact on electricity sales through 2030 is small 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, EFG 2007 Meeting 51

52 2030 Load Curve in Alternative Warming Scenarios (gigawatts) 1,200 trend reference 30 year rolling 10-year 1,100 1, Higher Summer Shift from 30-year to 10-year rolling CDD and HDD averages has little impact on load curves. Only extreme shift to 1992 (near minimum CDDs in last 15 years) to 2006 (near maximum in last 15 years) trend leads to strong growth in peak demand. 600 Lower Winter EFG 2007 Meeting 52

53 Summary Warming Scenarios Decrease Overall Energy Consumption Increases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Power Sector More Than Offset by Decreases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Buildings Sector Greater warming leads to higher summer loads, lower winter loads and greater dependence on natural gas simple combustion turbines and combined cycle plants Carbon Emissions Not Affected Much Natural Gas Prices Not Affected Much Total Energy Expenditures Not Affected Much EFG 2007 Meeting 53

54 2005 Max and Min Load Days, PJM-E 70,000 60, Jul 30-May Megawatts 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: Hours of the Day EFG 2007 Meeting 54