Energy Efficiency and White Roofs in CA and US. Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former Commissioner California Energy Commission.

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency and White Roofs in CA and US. White Roofs to Cool your Buildings, and Cities and (this is new) Cool our Planet Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former Commissioner California Energy Commission. Distinguished Scientist Emeritus Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Presentation available at File: ABA Webinar from ET Summit Sac to from Philomathia3 Berkeley and CITRIS i4e

2 Energy Intensity (E/GDP) in the US E/GDP = thousand Btu/$ (in $2000) , First Earth Day OPEC Embargo Oil Price Collapse If Intensity dropped at pre-1973 levels of 0.4% per year Actual Intensity drops at 2% per year 2007 GDP = $14 Trillion ($2007) 15% of GDP in 2007 =$2.1 Trillion Actual Energy Costs: 9% of GDP in 2007 =$1.2 Trillion year ArtRosenfeld@gmail.com or PatMcAuliffe@sbcglobal.net 2

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4 14,000 Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation) (kwh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data) 12,000 10,000 United States 2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita 8,000 6,000 California 4,000 2,000 0 Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $ % change US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94% Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%

5 Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards 45,000 40,000 ~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in ,000 30,000 GWh/year 25,000 20,000 Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of ~1% of electric bill 15,000 10,000 Building Standards 5,000 Appliance Standards

6 Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances = = Effective Dates of National Standards Effective Dates of State Standards Index (1972 = 100) Refrigerators Gas Furnaces Year 75% 60% Central A/C SEER = 13 25% Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, 7

7 2,000 New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time and Retail Prices 25 1,800 Average Energy Use or Price 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Refrigerator Size (cubic ft) Energy Use per Unit (kwh/year) $ 1,270 Refrigerator Price in 1983 $ $ Refrigerator volume (cubic feet) Source: David Goldstein 8

8 Air Conditioning Energy Use in Single Family Homes in PG&E The effect of AC Standards (SEER) and Title 24 standards 4,000 Annual kwh per new home for central AC 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, If only increases in house size -- no efficiency gains Change due to SEER improvements SEER plus Title 24 9

9 Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements 三峡电量与电冰箱 空调能效对比 TWh Air Conditioners 空调 Value of TWh Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kwh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kwh 7.5 If Energy Star TWH/Year Stds 2000 Stds If Energy Star Air Conditioners 空调 Value (billion $/year) Stds Refrigerators 冰箱 Stds 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 3 Gorges 三峡 Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL 标准生效后,10 年节约电量 0 10

10 United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 11 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kwh per year) Estimated Standby Power (per house) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard 2007 STD.

11 Televisions Represent Significant Energy Use The residential energy consumption due to televisions rapidly increased from 3-4% in 1990s to 8-10% in Television energy will grow up to 18% by 2023 without regulations. The projected growth does not include the residential energy use by cable boxes, DVD players, internet boxes, Blue Ray, game consoles etc. 12

12 Technically Feasible Standards Each point may represent several TV model *Consumers can expect to save between $ 50 - $ 250 over the life of their TV *A 50 inch plasma can consume as little as 307 kwh/yr and as much as 903 kwh/yr 13

13 General Purpose Lighting Proposed Regulations (cont.) Rated Lumens Range Proposed Table K-8: Standards for State-regulated General Services Incandescent Lamps -Tier I Maximum rated Wattage Minimum Rated Life Time Proposed California Effective Date Lumens Watts 1,000 hours Jan, 1, Lumens Watts 1,000 hours Jan 1, Lumens Watts 1,000 hours Jan 1, Lumens Watts 1,000 hours Jan 1, 2013 Proposed Table K-9: Standards for State-regulated General Services Lamps -Tier II Lumens Range Maximum Lamp Efficacy Minimum Rated Life Time Proposed California Effective Date All 45 lumens per watt 1,000 hours Jan, 1, 2018

14 Cool Roofs can Cool Your Buildings, Your Cities, and OUR PLANET Arthur H. Rosenfeld Former Commissioner, California Energy Commission Guest Senior Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Home-Office Phone: Cell Phone: Ronnen Levinson, Ph.D. Acting Leader, Heat Island Group Lawrence Berkeley National Lab tel Washington DC, May 2010 This talk available at

15 Summer in the city summer urban heat island 17 17

16 European Heat Wave 2003, 30,000 Deaths France July 2010,. Deaths? 18

17 Chicago Heat Wave 1995, 739 Deaths Virtually all of the deaths occurred on the top floors of buildings with black roofs 19

18 Bird s s eye view of urban land use The surface of Sacramento, CA is about 20% roofs 30% vegetation 40% pavement Parking Area 12% Tree Cover 13% Grass 15% Barren Land 8% Sidewalk 5% Misc. 6% Roof 19% Road 22% ~ 1 km 2 Area by Land-Cover Category Above the Canopy

19 21 21 Reflective roofs stay cooler in the sun 50 Galvanized Steel IR Refl. Black Temperature Rise ( C) Optical White Optical White White Paint White Paint Lt. Green Paint Al Roof Coat. Lt. Red Paint Red Clay Tile White Asphalt Shingle White Asphalt Shingle White Cement Coat. White Cement Coat. Green Asphalt Shingle Black Paint Solar Absorptance

20 White roofs around the world

21 in Santorini, Greece 23 23

22 in Hyderabad, India and widely in the state of Gujarat, India

23 Walmart store in northern California 25 25

24 Congratulations to UC Davis 26 26

25 White roofs are popular in Tucson, AZ 27 27

26 Washington, DC (Federal) has problems 28 28

27 Pentagon 29 29

28 Cooling our planet

29 Solar reflective surfaces cool the globe via negative radiative forcing Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

30 GLOBAL COOLING: making 100 m 2 (1000 ft 2 ) of gray roofing white offsets the emission of 10 t of CO

31 How much CO 2 equivalent is offset if we whiten all eligible urban flat roofs worldwide? (i/ii) Answer: 24 Gigatonnes (Gt) 2/3 of a year s worldwide emission Gigatonne = billion metric tons If implemented over 20 years (the life of a roof or a program) this is 1.2 Gt/year. 33

32 How much CO 2 equivalent is offset if we whiten all eligible urban flat roofs world-wide? (ii/ii) Offset is equivalent to taking 300 million cars off the road for 20 years. There are about 600 million passenger cars world wide, and they each emit 4 t CO 2 /year. 34

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34 Progress in energy efficiency standards In 2005, California s Title 24 energy efficiency standards prescribed white surfaces for low sloped roofs on commercial buildings. In 2008, California prescribed cool colored surfaces for steep residential roofs in its 5 hottest climate zones. Arizona, Florida and Georgia followed. Other U.S. states & all countries with hot summers should follow. 36

35 Recent cool roof progress ( ) 2005 California Title 24 Flat roofs shall be white (15 out of 16 climate zones) EPA ENERGY STAR lists Cool Roof Materials 2010 June 1 st, 2010 Memo from U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu calls for all DOE Buildings to have white roofs, if cost-effective June 16 th, 2010 Marine Corp follows suit, Pentagon following slowly June 19 th, 2010 RetroFIT Philly announces winner of coolest block contest to white-coat black roofs of row houses Cool Cities launched see Spring 2011 US will launch, at G20 Energy Ministers meeting, a voluntary Cool Roofs initiative and may even offer technical assistance to developing countries who join early. 37

36 100 Cool Cities could unite many initiatives and trade associations 38

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38 Demand Response 40

39 California is a Summer Peaking Area California Daily Peak Loads ,000 60,000 Residential Air Conditioning Commercial Air Conditioning 50,000 40,000 MW 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 41

40 Three Necessary Components for Demand Response (The low-tech half of the smart grid; no Gee Whiz reliability) Advanced Metering Infrastructure--recorded hourly Digital meters with communication; readings available in near-real time Dynamic Tariffs Enable customers to be able to respond to hourly prices The structure of these tariffs is critically important as customers are hoping to reduce total energy costs Automated Response Technology at customer locations Enable residential and small commercial customers to respond to price automatically Larger customers with energy management systems linked to pricing signals over the internet or through other communication channels And, when coupled with energy efficiency programs and policies the result can be reduction in total consumption as well as peak period consumption 42

41 Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) with Time of Use (TOU) Direct customer savings comes mainly be response to TOU. Customer response to CPP is mainly civic pride but avoids utility investment and expensive peak infrastructure. Price (cents/kwh) CPP Price Signal 10x per year? Standard TOU Critical Peak Price Standard Rate Extraordinary Curtailment Signal, < once per year Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Prices are designed such that the average non-responder sees no bill change. 43

42 Key Results from Residential Pilot 12% average load reduction for CPP rate alone Up to 40% with rate + enabling tech Most participants preferred the pilot rates Average Residential Response to Critical Peak Pricing Should dynamic rates be offered to all customers? kw Fixed Incentive with Controllable Thermostat Control Group CPP Event Total TOU CPP-F CPP-V 69% 65% 73% 61% 22% 91% 30% 95% 20% 93% 26% 87% CPP with Controllable Thermostat Info Only 69% 17% 86% 0% % 0.0 Noon 2:30 7:30 Midnight Definitely Probably 44

43 Automated Demand Response Commercial Customers *Source: Demand Response Research Center, Global Energy Partners 45

44 Smart thermostat with universal communications interface at rear Source: Tim Simons, Golden Power

45 Smart thermostat with U-SNAP Interface Advantages of this configuration: 1.Customer decides 2.Flexible 3. plug and play 4.Capable of conveying lots of information Source: Tim Simons, Golden Power