Energy Efficiency in California Some Possible Lessons for Ontario 20 March 2006

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency in California Some Possible Lessons for Ontario 20 March 2006 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916)

2 California Peak Demand GW at 5% growth rate GW Actual (2.2% year) If CA had grown at US rate $10 bbl $40 bbl $15 bbl year Arthur Rosenfeld, 2

3 14,000 Per Capita Electricity Consumption kwh/person 12,000 $10 bbl $40 bbl $15 bbl 12,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, California United States Californian s have a net savings of $1,000 per family Source: Arthur Rosenfeld, 3

4 Per Capita Electricity Consumption 14,000 Source: 12,000 United States California New York $10 bbl $40 bbl $15 bbl 10,000 kwh/person 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, year Arthur Rosenfeld, 4

5 14,000 Per Capita Electricity Consumption kwh/person $15 bbl 12,000 10,000 $10 bbl $40 bbl 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Ontario United States California Arthur Rosenfeld, 5

6 Costs and Pollution Saved by Avoiding a 50% expansion of California Electric System. Avoids 18 Million tons/year of Carbon Equivalent to getting 12 million cars off the road, along with their NOx, CO, and particulate emissions. California has ~25 million motor vehicles, avoided 50% more equivalent pollution. The Pavley bill, starting in model year 09, should start to reduce another 30%. California annual electric bill in 2004 ~ $32 Billion Avoided ~$16 Billion of bills, but net saving is only ~$12Billion/year, i.e. $1000/family. Arthur Rosenfeld, 6

7 Per Capita Electricity Consumption 16,000 14,000 12,000 Red States 2004 Election United States Blue States 2004 Election California kwh/person 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, $10 bbl $40 bbl 1982 year $15 bbl Arthur Rosenfeld,

8 United States Refrigerator Use v. Time 2, Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kwh/yr) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Refrigerator Size (cubic ft) Energy Use per Unit (KWH/Year) 75% reduction in 30 yrs = 5%/yr. 1 st Federal Stds Refrigerator volume (cubic feet) Source: David Goldstein Arthur Rosenfeld, 8

9 United States Refrigerator Use v. Time 2, ,800 Average Energy Use or Price 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Refrigerator Size (cubic ft) Energy Use per Unit (KWH/Year) $ 1,270 Refrigerator Price in 1983 $ $ Refrigerator volume (cubic feet) Source: David Goldstein Arthur Rosenfeld, 9

10 Refrigerator Energy Use: 75% has been saved Billion kwh per Year Energy Needed Energy Saved 50 Energy Needed 0 At 1974 Efficiency At 2001 Efficiency Arthur Rosenfeld, 10

11 Energy Saved vs Energy Generation in Billion KWH 800 nuclear energy Billion KWH/year Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds 100 Million 1 KW PV systems conventional hydro 100 renewables 0 Arthur Rosenfeld, 11

12 The Value of Energy Saved and Produced Valuing a kwh at 3 cents wholesale (busbar) and 8.5 cents to buildings 25 nuclear energy 20 Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds Billion $ (US)/year Million 1 KW PV systems conventional hydro 5 renewables 0 Arthur Rosenfeld, 12

13 2000 United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kwh per year) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1980 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 1978 Cal Standard Estimated Standby Power (per house) 1987 Cal Standard 2001 Federal Standard Arthur Rosenfeld, 13

14 Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards 45,000 40,000 ~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in ,000 30,000 GWh/year 25,000 20,000 Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of ~1% of electric bill 15,000 10,000 Building Standards 5, Appliance Standards Arthur Rosenfeld, 14

15 Annual Peak Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards 14,000 ~ 22% of Annual Peak in California in ,000 10,000 MW/year 8,000 6,000 Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of ~1% of electric bill 4,000 2,000 0 Building Standards Appliance Standards Arthur Rosenfeld, 15

16 Saving Electricity in a Hurry -- Dealing with Temporary Shortfalls in Electricity Supplies, 130 pages, ISBN (2005), Arthur Rosenfeld, 16

17 Arthur Rosenfeld, 17

18 Illuminating Space vs. the Street Arthur Rosenfeld, 18

19 Arthur Rosenfeld, 19

20 Table FIRST YEAR Savings (GWh) for PG&E, SCE and SDG&E, and 2004 Funding GWh % of Total GWh MW % of Total MW Funding ($000) % of Total Revenue PG&E % % $132, % SCE % % $146, % SDG&E % % $37, % Total 1, % % $317, % Arthur Rosenfeld, 20

21 Figure 8 Comparison of EE Program Costs to Supply Generation Costs Supply Options $/kwh Demand Average Cost of EE Programs for Base Load Generation Shoulder Generation Peak Generation Arthur Rosenfeld, 21

22 California IOU s Investment in Energy Efficiency Millions of $2002 per Year $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Profits decoupled from sales 2% of 2004 IOU Electric Revenues $ Performance Incentives Market Restructuring Crisis Forecast IRP Public Goods Charges Arthur Rosenfeld, 22

23 EE Procurement by the IOUs In September 2004 The CPUC adopted aggressive goals for new energy efficiency savings, covering the next decade of IOU procurement: 1. $6 billion in investment over ten years. 2. 5,000 MW of avoided traditional generation, equivalent to approximately 1% of load per year. 3. With these goals established, the CPUC is now considering the first threeyear plans, with associated funding levels, to reach the desired targets: 4. $2.7 billion in investment for , including customer out-of-pocket costs. 5. Investment Increases from $400 million to $800 million annually. 6. IOU efficiency procurement will defer 1500 MW of traditional generation development, with a life cycle effect equivalent to removing 1 Million cars from the road. Arthur Rosenfeld, 23

24 Energy Action Plan The Energy Action Plan is driven by the Loading Order contained in the multi-agency Energy Action Plan. Since its enactment in 2003, the Loading Order has been integrated into the major CPUC decisions governing energy policy and procurement. Energy resources are prioritized as follows: 1. Energy Efficiency/Demand Response 2. Renewable Generation, including renewable DG 3. Increased development of affordable & reliable conventional generation 4. Transmission expansion to support all of California s energy goals. Arthur Rosenfeld, 24

25 Electricity Efficiency and Renewables in California Goals of California Energy Action Plan 2003 California kwh per capita is already flat compared to U.S. climbing 2%/yr. New California goal is to reduce kwh per capita by 1/2% to 1% each year Renewable Portfolio Standard: add 1% of renewables per year Additional peak reduction of 1% per year by Demand Response when power is expensive or reliability is a problem Some recent initiatives: Green (commercial) Buildings Initiative: to accelerate building efficiency gain by 1% per year Million Solar Homes Initiative (mainly for new homes): to couple superefficient homes with photovoltaics (PVs) In total, goals aim to reduce electricity growth, increase renewables, and grow demand response Arthur Rosenfeld, 25

26 Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) with additional curtailment option Potential Annual Customer Savings: 10 afternoons x 4 hours x 1kw = 40 kwh at 70 cents/kwh = ~$30/year Price (cents/kwh) CPP Price Signal 10x per year? Standard TOU Critical Peak Price Standard Rate Extraordinary Curtailment Signal, < once per year Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Arthur Rosenfeld, 26

27 Tariffs being Tested in California Pilot FLAT RATE 0.60 TOU RATE $ (U.S.)/ KWH CPP-F RATE (NON CRITICAL DAY) CPP-F RATE (CRITICAL DAY) 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 Hour Ending 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 Arthur Rosenfeld, 27

28 Climate Zone 4 (Very Hot Areas) on CPP Days Control CPP - F TOU kw hour ending Arthur Rosenfeld, 28

29 Demand Response and Retail Pricing Pilot CPUC and CEC have been testing the impact of CPP on demand Two summers of tests Results for residential customers 12% reduction when faced with critical peak prices and no technology 30% to 40% reduction for customers with air conditioning, technology, and a critical peak price. Arthur Rosenfeld, 29

30 Demand Response and Interval Electricity Meters Large Commercial Customers Currently large customers have interval meters, mandatory time-of-use pricing, and limited voluntary participation in interruptible programs Starting Summer 2007, these customers may be put on default Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) tariffs in Investor Owner Utility (IOU) areas Advanced Metering Infrastructure In late 2006, PG&E and SDG&E expect to begin installation of interval meters for ALL electricity customers and will relay gas use and will offer CPP to customers as they get their meters Installation to take several years during which time SCE plans to follow suit. By 2011or 2012 all IOU customers will have access to CPP. CEC will specify communicating thermostats which can be programmed to response to CPP and for grid protection Arthur Rosenfeld, 30

31 Solar Roof Program Sacramento Municipal Utility District has been very innovative re: PVs and new construction The Million Solar Roof Initiative had been introduced, but stalled, in California Legislature in 2005 California Public Utilities Commission has: Initially increased funding by $300 million for 2006 and reduced rebate levels to $2.80 per watt Adopted The California Solar Initiative providing nearly $2.9 Billion between 2007 and 2017 for incentives for PV and for solar thermal projects less than 1 MW Arthur Rosenfeld, 31

32 CEC Proposal: Hybrid Rebates to link Efficiency and PVs Conservation Supply Curve for New Residential Construction $/kwh Average Cost of PV 0.30 Average Cost of PV after rebate/tax credit Residential Price ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 GWH Arthur Rosenfeld, 32

33 Benchmarking Commercial Buildings Investor Owned Utilities will start a program to assess and compare energy intensity in commercial buildings The objective is to benchmark different classes of building and Provide Awards for the most efficient Offer incentives/audits/etc. for the least efficient Arthur Rosenfeld, 33

34 Source: Webster, et. al, Science Vol. 309 Arthur Rosenfeld, 34

35 Growth = 1.5%/yr Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968 Arthur Rosenfeld, 35