NIGERIAN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR ALL (SE4ALL) ACTION AGENDA
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1 ELECTRICITY VISION: EOY ON-GRID CAPACITY - MWH/H Fossil Fuel (FF) 2,800 3,076 3,121 3,913 4,172 4,259 4,524 4,867 5,286 5,889 6,684 7,581 8,646 9,714 10,957 12,429 13, ,060 1,203 1,408 1,582 1,958 2,388 2,846 3, Sub Total FF 2,800 3,076 3,121 3,913 4,172 4,514 4,948 5,495 6,157 6,949 7,887 9,989 11,228 12,672 14,845 16,775 18,200 Renewables (RE) 916 1,097 1,200 1,650 1,920 2,200 2,540 2,800 3,100 3,400 3,700 4,000 4,200 4,500 4,600 4,700 4, , ,200 1,600 2,000 2,300 2,600 2,900 3,200 3,500 3,840 4,180 4,520 4,860 5, ,000 (Max) ,080 1, Sub Total RE plus 916 1,112 1,355 2,375 3,595 4,455 5,325 6,195 7,075 7,955 8,835 9,695 10,615 11,635 12,455 13,285 13,800 Sub Total RE less ,675 2,255 2,785 3,395 3,975 4,555 5,135 5,695 6,415 7,135 7,855 8,585 9,100 % RE plus % RE less TOTAL ON-GRID (FF+RE) - MWH/H 3,716 4,188 4,476 6,288 7,767 8,969 10,273 11,690 13,232 14,904 16,722 19,684 21,843 24,307 27,300 30,060 32,000 OFF-GRID CAPACITY - MWH/H Mini-Grid ,367 2,050 3,075 3,691 4,429 5,314 SHS + Street Lights ,120 1,344 1,612 1,935 2,322 2,786 TOTAL OFF-GRID - MWH/H ,053 1,385 1,844 2,487 3,394 4,688 5,625 6,751 8,101 SELF GENERATION (CAPTIVE) 13,800 13,800 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,000 GRAND TOTAL - MWH/H 17,527 18,019 17,031 18,438 19,542 20,419 21,313 22,500 23,785 25,290 27,067 30,170 32,737 35,995 39,426 42,811 45,101 30GW BY 2030 WITH 3 RENEWABLE ENERGY : LARGE HYDRO POWER; : SMALL MEDIUM HYDRO POWER FF: FOSSIL FUEL; RE: RENEWABLE ENERGY SHS: SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS
2 NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2016: 4.5 GW ON-GRID , , % 1% 71% , , , NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2019: 9GW ON-GRID 1% 18% 47% 25% : LARGE HYDRO POWER; : SMALL MEDIUM HYDRO POWER FF: FOSSIL FUEL; RE: RENEWABLE ENERGY SHS: SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS
3 NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2020: 10GW ON-GRID 2% , , , % 25% 4% 44% NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2030 : 30GW ON-GRID ,000 3,200 2,000 4,700 1,200 5,000 1, , % 16% 2% 41% 15% 6% 1 : LARGE HYDRO POWER; : SMALL MEDIUM HYDRO POWER FF: FOSSIL FUEL; RE: RENEWABLE ENERGY SHS: SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS
4 Total Fossil Fuels RE plus PROJECTED CAPACITY GROWTH FOR ON-GRID POWER UP TO Total Fossil Fuels RE plus Sub Total RE le MW EOY Sub Total RE less
5 ELECTRICITY VISION: EOY ON-GRID CAPACITY - GWH Fossil Fuel (FF) 18,386 20,198 20,494 25,696 27,397 27,967 29,708 31,956 34,710 38,672 43,893 49,777 56,774 63,787 71,951 81,616 85, ,674 2,784 4,124 5,719 6,960 7,899 9,245 10,388 12,857 15,681 18,688 21, ,776 7,776 7,776 11,664 11,664 15,552 Sub Total FF 18,386 20,198 20,494 25,696 27,397 29,641 32,493 36,080 40,429 45,633 51,792 66,798 74,938 84,420 99, , ,118 Renewables (RE) 4,749 5,687 6,221 8,554 9,953 11,405 13,167 14,515 16,070 17,626 19,181 20,736 21,773 23,328 23,846 24,365 24, ,063 1,477 1,374 1,685 2,100 2,514 2,929 3,240 3,655 4,069 4,484 4,899 6, ,970 2,627 3,283 3,776 4,268 4,761 5,253 5,746 6,304 6,862 7,420 7,978 8, ,210 43,272 1,814 2,117 2,419 2,722 2,873 3, ,050 1,236 1,423 1,750 1, ,327 1,659 1,991 2,322 2,654 2,986 3,318 3,981 4,645 5,308 5,972 6, Sub Total RE plus 4,749 5,765 6,642 10,416 14,191 17,139 20,031 23,061 26,251 29,441 74,391 35,717 38,879 42,560 45,204 47,836 49,766 Sub Total RE less ,862 4,238 5,734 6,864 8,546 10,181 11,815 55,210 14,981 17,106 19,232 21,357 23,471 25,402 % RE plus % RE less TOTAL ON-GRID (FF+RE) - GWH 23,134 25,963 27,135 36,111 41,588 46,780 52,523 59,141 66,680 75, , , , , , , ,885 OFF-GRID CAPACITY - GWH Mini-Grid ,160 2,592 3,110 4,666 6,998 10,498 15,746 23,620 35,429 53,144 63,773 76,528 91,833 SHS + Street Lights ,120 1,344 1,612 1,935 2,322 2,786 3,344 4,012 4,815 TOTAL OFF-GRID - MW ,037 2,419 3,110 3,732 5,599 8,118 11,841 17,359 25,555 37,751 55,930 67,116 80,540 96,648 SELF GENERATION (CAPTIVE) - GWH 90,616 90,616 82,080 78,797 75,514 72,230 68,947 65,664 62,381 59,098 55,814 52,531 49,248 45,965 42,682 39,398 32,832 GRAND TOTAL - GWH 113, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,364 Real Per Capita (kwh) ,003 Per Capita (kwh) including Self Generation ,071 1,126 Population Growth (Million) at 2% Ave Rate GW BY 2030 WITH 3 RENEWABLE ENERGY : LARGE HYDRO POWER; : SMALL MEDIUM HYDRO POWER FF: FOSSIL FUEL; RE: RENEWABLE ENERGY SHS: SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS
6 NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2016: 5 GW ON-GRID , , % 1% 75% ,967 1, ,405 1,477 2, , % NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2019: 9GW ON-GRID 1% 6% 6 : LARGE HYDRO POWER; : SMALL MEDIUM HYDRO POWER FF: FOSSIL FUEL; RE: RENEWABLE ENERGY SHS: SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS
7 ,708 2, ,167 1,374 3, ,659 0 NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2020: 10GW ON-GRID 1% 6% 25% 57% 5% ,363 21, ,365 6,221 8,208 3,024 1,866 6,083 0 NIGERIA'S ENERGY MIX IN 2030 : 30GW ON-GRID 2% 1% 5% 4% 14% 5 9% 12% : LARGE HYDRO POWER; : SMALL MEDIUM HYDRO POWER FF: FOSSIL FUEL; RE: RENEWABLE ENERGY SHS: SOLAR HOME SYSTEMS
8 TOTAL OFF- GRID - MWH/H ,053 1,385 1,844 2,487 3,394 4,688 5,625 6,751 8,000 TOTAL ON- GRID (FF+RE) - MW 3,716 4,188 4,476 6,288 7,767 8,969 10,273 11,690 13,232 14,904 16,722 19,684 21,843 24,307 27,300 30,060 32,000 SELF GENERATIO N (CAPTIVE) - MW 13,800 13,800 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,000 TOTAL MW 17,527 18,019 17,031 18,438 19,542 20,419 21,313 22,500 23,785 25,290 27,067 30,170 32,737 35,995 39,426 42,811 45,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 PROJECTED ELECTRICITY SUPPLY GROTH IN MW UP TO TOTAL OFF-GRID - MWH/H TOTAL ON-GRID (FF+RE) - MW SELF GENERATION (CAPTIVE) - MW TOTAL MW
9 2016 TOTAL ON-GRI 4,476 TOTAL OFF-GR 55 SELF GENERAT 12,500 TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN 2016: 18 GW 74% 26% TOTAL ON-GRID (FF+RE) GW TOTAL OFF-GRID GW SELF GENERATION (CAPTIVE) GW TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN 2019: 20 GW 2019 ON-GRID (FF+R 8,969 OFF-GRID SELF GENERAT 11,000 54% 44% ON-GRID (FF+RE) - 9 GW OFF-GRID GW SELF GENERATION (CAPTIVE) - 11 GW 2%
10 2020 ON-GRID (FF+R 10,273 OFF-GRID SELF GENERAT 10,500 TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN 2020: 21.5GW 49% 48% ON-GRID (FF+RE) - 10 GW OFF-GRID GW SELF GENERATION (CAPTIVE) GW 2030 ON-GRID (FF+R 30,000 OFF-GRID - 8 G 8,000 SELF GENERAT 5,000 TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN 2030: 43GW 12% 18% ON-GRID (FF+RE) - 30 GW OFF-GRID - 8 GW 7 SELF GENERATION (CAPTIVE) - 5 GW
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