Understanding Offshore Wind s Enhanced Peak Load Coincidence for East Coast Transmission Systems

Transcription

1 WINDPOWER 2013 Conference Chicago, May 8, 2013 Understanding Offshore Wind s Enhanced Peak Load Coincidence for East Coast Transmission Systems Bruce Bailey, Ph.D. President/CEO Co Authors: Whitney Wilson, Senior Engineer Colin Tareila, Engineer

2 Widespread Interest in Offshore Wind Offshorewind.net

3 Meteorology of Peak Load Events Atmospheric Circulations Favoring Sea Breezes and Ocean Currents Wind Speeds During Sea Breezes 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC

4 Sea Breeze Structure 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC

5 Load Matching Quality of the Resource Offshore wind has a stronger diurnal coincidence with load than onshore wind, having production peaks in the late afternoon and early evening. Coincidence of offshore wind and load is better defined in summer months, when loads peak. Stronger coincidence is beneficial to grid operators, as they will receive the energy when they need to support load. Stronger coincidence is beneficial to developers, as they will generate energy when power prices are at a peak.

6 Load Coincidence Illustration Virginia Dominion VA Summer Load Coincidence Dominion VA Load (MW) Power Load Estimated Historical Net Capacity Factor (%) Hour Dominion Load 12 NM Offshore Coastal Onshore Mountains Chesapeake Light C MAN

7 Load Coincidence Illustration Georgia Georgia Power Summer Load Coincidence Georgia Power Load (MW) Power Load 40 mi offshore 12 mi offshore Coastal zone onshore Estimated Average Net Capacity Factor (%) Hour Mountain 0 Georgia Power Load 12 NM Offshore Coastal Onshore Mountains Gray's Reef Buoy

8 Potential Wind Project Areas in the New York Bight 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC

9 Offshore & Onshore Capacity Factors, Offshore Wind Speed and NYC Load for Sea Breeze Cases Peak Load Hours Multiple Offshore Wind Projects: 48% CF Upstate NY Wind Projects: 12% CF

10 Heat Index, Peak Load and Sea Breeze Intensity NYC Region ( )

11 Average Load Coincidence for Peak Days 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC

12 Variations Among Projects for a Single Event June 21, AWS Truepower, LLC

13 Including Solar as a Load Coincident Resource Solar is another variable renewable energy resource that has significant growth potential The same heat waves that drive demand peaks and strong sea breezes also provide a reliable solar resource.

14 Case Study of Enhanced Peak Load Reduction from Offshore Wind and Land Based Solar for New York City (Zone J) July 6, 2010 Peak Load = 11.2 GW Illustration assumes 20% penetration of renewables. From Perez, Freedman & Hoff; 2012

15 Conclusions Weather events responsible for peak electric loads on the East Coast also produce strong sea breezes. Load coincidence from offshore projects is much better vs inland; On peak load days, effective capacities of offshore projects >40% and can approach 100% of max output; Quality of load match depends on locale and event. Forecasting services can inform schedulers; Combination of wind & solar have higher load coincidence than either one alone.

16 THANK YOU!