Con Edison, Inc. New York, NY March 11, Shields & Company Berenson & Company Transmission Seminar

Transcription

1 Con Edison, Inc. New York, NY March 11, 2009 Shields & Company Berenson & Company Transmission Seminar

2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements of future expectations and financial measures not determined in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (non-gaap) financial measures. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forwardlooking statements because of factors such as those identified in reports the company has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. For more information, contact: Jan Childress, Director, Investor Relations Ellen Socolow, Manager, Investor Relations

3 Overview of Con Edison

4 Regulated Transmission and Distribution Focused Con Edison, Inc. (ED) 2008 EPS $4.38 Rate Base: $18.1 billion Market Cap: $10.7 billion Regulated Utilities Orange and Rockland 2008 EPS $0.16 Con Edison of New York 2008 EPS $2.87 Competitive Energy Businesses Con Edison Solutions 2008 EPS $(0.21) Con Edison Energy 2008 EPS $(0.06) Con Edison Development 2008 EPS $1.54 Retail and Energy Services Wholesale Infrastructure Projects 4

5 Regulated Utilities are the Core of Con Edison, Inc. Con Edison of New York 3.3 million electric customers 1.1 million gas customers 1,770 steam customers 710 MW of regulated generation Orange and Rockland 299,000 electric customers 128,000 gas customers 5

6 Con Edison, Inc. Delivered 43% of New York State 2008 Electric Peak CECONY delivered 38.4% of NYS 2008 peak consumption O&R delivered 4.5% of NYS 2008 peak consumption 6

7 Impact of Economy on Customer Demand

8 Con Edison of New York Historical Electricity Demand Through U.S. Recessions MW 14,000 13,000 9/11 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 Oil Embargo Oil Shock Iranian Revolution Iran / Iraq War Stock Market Crash Enlightened Energy Program 7,000 6,000 NYC Fiscal Crisis Official U.S. recessions noted in shaded areas 8

9 Con Edison of New York Key Economic Measures Employment (Thousands) 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,

10 Con Edison of New York Key Economic Measures Households (Thousands) 3,600 3,550 3,500 3,450 3,400 3,350 3,300 3,250 3,

11 Key Economic Measures Building Permits 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Con Edison of New York

12 Electric Demand Forecasts Annualized 5-Year Growth Rates Con Edison of New York Orange and Rockland Historical 1.7% 2.6% ( ) 2007 forecast 1.0% 2.5% ( ) 2008 forecast 0.6% 2.1% ( ) 12

13 Infrastructure Investment

14 Con Edison of New York The Electric System Transmission Distribution Generating Station (electricity generated at 13.8 to 22.0 kv) Transformers (voltage stepped up to transmission voltage) Transmission Substation Area Substation (voltage stepped down to distribution voltage) Transformers (voltage stepped down to 480, 208, or 120 V) Feeders Network Customers (residential, commercial, industrial, hospitals, schools, and street and traffic lights) Connection To Others Radial Customers

15 Con Edison of New York Factors Driving 5-Year Capital Budget Increased Customer Demand 32% Reliability 50% Reliability 48% Strategic IT Enhancements 6% Increased Customer Demand 36% Environmental 7% Emergency Response 5% 15

16 Con Edison of New York 2009 Capital Budget ($ millions) Increased Customer Demand Reliability Environmental Strategic IT Enhancement Emergency Response Total System & Transmission $151 $42 $3 $10 $5 $211 Substation Distribution ,006 Electric ,671 Gas Steam Common Total $781 $1,147 $184 $166 $122 $2,400 16

17 Con Edison of New York Infrastructure Investment ($ millions) $2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Electric Gas Steam Depreciation , , , , , , Steam Gas Electric Depreciation Actual $1, Actual $1, Actual $2, Budget $2, Forecast $2, Forecast $2,063 17

18 Con Edison of New York Major Substation Construction Program ( ) Transmission Switching Station Distribution Substation Planned Construction

19 Electric Transmission System

20 New York State Transmission System

21 Con Edison of New York Key Elements of Con Edison s System 437 miles of overhead transmission lines (mostly north of N.Y. City) Overhead Lines on Right-of-Way in Dutchess County

22 Con Edison of New York Key Elements of Con Edison s System 716 miles of underground cables (mostly in N.Y. City) 638 miles of dielectric fluid pipe-type cable 54 miles of gas-filled pipe-type cable 24 miles of solid dielectric cable Underground Cable Installation at Transmission Substation in The Bronx

23 Con Edison of New York Key Elements of Con Edison s System Substations Currently Exist In Neighborhoods Throughout The City

24 Con Edison of New York Key Elements of Con Edison s System Power Transformer Power Transformer

25 Con Edison of New York Key Elements of Con Edison s System New 345 kv Circuit Breaker at Substation in Westchester County

26 Con Edison of New York M29 Transmission Line Project 9.5-mile, 345-kV line connecting Westchester with upper Manhattan Will add 350 MW to New York City s import capability NYPSC approved Article VII certificate on August 23, 2007 Received NYPSC approval of Environmental Management and Construction Plan in December 2007 Expected to be in service by summer 2011

27 New York State Planning Process

28 New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) Reliability Planning Paradigm NYISO performs 10 year reliability study to determine needs throughout New York State Issues a reliability needs assessment and asks for projects to meet need Preference given to market solutions: Generation, Transmission or Demand Side Management Transmission Owners identify backstop plan in case market does not respond Results in a statewide Comprehensive Reliability Plan 28

29 NYISO s Reliability Planning Paradigm NYISO s 2009 Reliability Needs Assessment indicates no reliability issues anticipated through 2018 Supply & Demand Peak Demand Supply (Generation + Demand Response) ,059 MW 42,077 MW ,658 MW 42,536 MW The outlook of the 2009 RNA is an improvement from 2008 Large amount of additional proposed generation Reduction in peak load Increases in demand-side resources Decreases in expected plant retirements 29

30 Economic Planning in the NYISO FERC Order 890 directed ISOs/RTOs to develop planning processes that address both reliability and economic needs NYISO performs studies that identify generic solutions generation, transmission, DSM - to reduce congestion Reliability Plan is starting point for economic studies Developers may request additional project specific studies NYISO provides several metrics to determine regions that benefit Economic transmission projects may recover costs through NYISO process if: Projected benefits exceed cost Supermajority of beneficiaries approve project simulating willing buyer/seller scenario 30

31 New York State Transmission Assessment and Reliability Study ( STARS ) Initiative Interconnected nature of the bulk power system requires a coordinated effort to jointly develop and implement a thorough assessment and long-range rehabilitation plan Assess infrastructure needs over a ten-year horizon starting in 2019, complementing the NYISO planning process Examine reliability needs, condition of transmission assets, and will also focus on whether the system needs to be upgraded or enhanced to facilitate efficient power delivery Focus on existing rights-of-way and how they may be utilized to mitigate environmental and community impacts Explore synergies of transmission replacement and expansion in affected corridors Evaluate the cost effectiveness of upgrading, expanding, modernizing vs. basic rehabilitation Seek to enhance integration of renewable resources 31

32 Electric Transmission in the US

33 Factors Supporting Transmission Investments Federal, state and local support for transmission infrastructure Focus on grid reliability since 2003 blackout 2005 Energy Policy Act (NIETC & resulting FERC incentives) Policies favoring deployment of renewable resources Aging infrastructure and lack of past investments Demand continues to grow Siting of generation remote from load centers Fuel diversity ISO / RTO planning & RFPs issued by load serving entities

34 Barriers to Transmission Investments Siting, permitting & construction issues Federal vs State jurisdiction rights Extensive interconnection studies required NIMBY attitude Long project time Regulatory issues Protracted and uncertain regulatory approval process Disconnect between who pays and who benefits Cross border seams issues Lower cost of fuel that closes the energy price spread between zones

35 Transmission Investments Major Projects - Completed or Under Development , , ,45,46, Economic Projects 7 To be Determined Generation Projects Reliability Projects Renewable Projects Crosses State Line Various Sources

36 Transmission Investments Primary Drivers of Transmission Projects A significant number of proposed transmission projects are reliability related and within a utility s service area Renewable, 9% Economic, 11% Generation, 4% There are investment opportunities in all categories Reliability projects include local utility/transmission owner projects, as well as responses to RFPs Reliability, 76% Based on 54 selected projects representative of industry trends. Data taken from EEI, CERA, and other assessments.

37 Transmission Investments Projects in Early Development Stage Edmonton- Calgary (7) NorthernLights (Celilo Phase) (5) Bipole III (4) CapX 2020 (3) Mountain States Intertie (8) NorthernLights (Inland Phases) (6) Frontier Line (9) Green Line (1) Gateway N and S (24) WY-CO Int. (10) OH-MI (2) BC-N. California Line (23) N-S NV (21) TransWest (20) EPTP (11) Midway-Gregg (22) HPX (19) X Plan & 4500/2700 (12) Navajo (18) DFW Express (13) Local sponsors Non-local sponsors PV-N. Gila (17) SunZia (16) Trans-Elect CREZ Projects (14) 765 kv 500 kv 345 kv Combination of sponsors ETT Projects (15) 230 kv HVDC The existing net plant investment in the U.S. was $750 billion at end of According to the Edison Electric Institute, the amount of capital investment needed in the next 15 years is estimated at $900 billion. Various Sources

38 Transmission Investments Observations on Current Market Landscape Majority of transmission projects recently built and proposed are based upon reliability needs within local utility service areas Economics/value of transmission decreases as additional transmission is added Entry by non-local investors facilitated in areas that seek competitive bids Regulated or transmission projects backed by long term contracts are financeable Coordinated planning processes support socialization of costs for backbone projects

39 Con Edison, Inc. New York, NY March 11, 2009 Shields & Company Berenson & Company Transmission Seminar