NY Wind Overview and 2016 Operation

Transcription

1 NY Wind Overview and 216 Operation Tolu Dina Supervisor, Operations Analysis & Services MIWG October 16, 217, Rensselaer, NY DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

2 Agenda Overview of NY Wind Wind Curtailment Statistics Analysis of a month with wind curtailments Oct 216 Analysis of negative LBMP drivers for the year 216 Questions 2

3 Introduction To address market interest in the grid impact of wind as a renewable source of generation To inform the marketplace on wind trends 3

4 Overview 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 NY Installed Wind Capacity 1,414 1,348 1,274 1,274 1,162 1,634 1,73 1,746 1,754 1,827 MW 1,

5 NY wind generation profile GWh NYCA Wind Plants - Monthly Production Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

6 NY wind Capacity Factor profile 5% NYCA Wind Generation - Capacity Factor CF 4% 3% 2% 1% % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 32% 32% 36% 23% 15% 18% 14% 19% 28% 38% 26% % 29% 34% 31% 24% 17% 14% 15% 15% 3% 33% 31% % 36% 3% 2% 18% 22% 17% 16% 15% 25% 29% 41% % 39% 34% 3% 25% 25% 14%

7 NY wind 216 Capacity Factor distribution Daily Capacity Factor Distribution for 216 Frequency (days) % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% More Capacity Factor 7

8 NY wind 216 RTD (1min) Forecast variability RTD (1min) Wind Forecast Variability for 216 Frequency (RT Interval Count) ,18 46, ,78 1, More Bin Frequency 8

9 NY wind 216 RTD (1min) Forecast variability 6 RTD (1min) Wind Forecast Variability Metrics MW Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Avg Wind Variation ABS Avg Wind Variation Min Wind Variation Max Wind Variation 9

10 Economic Wind Curtailment GWh 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 NYCA Wind Plants- Annual Production & Economic Curtailments NYCA Wind Generation NYCA Estimated Curtailed Wind Energy 1

11 NY Wind Economic Curtailment profile Curtailed MWh Thousands NYCA Wind Plants - Monthly Estimated Curtailed Energy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ,211 5, , ,823 2,332 3, ,41 1, ,311 5, ,561 8,176 1, , ,75 1,657 1,919 2, ,51 5, , ,657 7,44 8,715 4,946 3,

12 NY Wind Economic Curtailment profile % of Monthly Production 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% NYCA Wind Plants - Monthly Estimated Curtailed Energy % % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 1.5%.1%.4%.1%.4%.3%.1%.2%.8%.5%.9% 215.4%.4%.2%.3% 1.8%.4%.%.1%.3% 3.8% 2.%.5% 216.3%.2% 1.2%.7%.8%.9%.1%.1%.5% 1.8%.%.4% 217.1%.4% 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.%.3%

13 NY Wind Economic Curtailment duration Curtailed Hours NYCA Wind Plants Monthly Curtailed Energy Duration Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

14 NY Zonal Economic Wind Curtailments Curtailed MWh Thousands NYCA Zones- Monthly Estimated Curtailed Energy for 216 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WEST GENESSEE CENTRAL , , NORTH ,178 1,52 1,69 1, , MOHAWK VALLEY ,22 14

15 Case Study October

16 Case Study October 216 Thousands October 216 Daily NY Wind Production and Estimated Economic Curtailment Wind Production Est. Curtailed Wind /1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 MWh 16

17 October 216: Daily Zonal Estimated Curtailment 3,5 Daily Estimated Economic Curtailment by Zone 3, 2,5 MWh 2, 1,5 1, 5 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 WEST GENESSEE CENTRAL NORTH MOHAWK VALLEY 17

18 October 216: Daily Zonal Estimated Curtailment Daily Economic Curtailment duration North Zone Duration (Hours) /1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 18

19 October 216: Daily Zonal Estimated Curtailment Daily Estimated Economic Curtailment by Limiting Constraint MWh /1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 MOSES SOUTH MARCY 765 MARCY DULEY 23 PLATSBRG 23 1 ADIRNDCK 23 MOSES 23 1 PACKARD 23 SAWYER 23 1 PACKARD 23 SAWYER 23 1 CENTRAL EAST - VC ADIRNDCK 23 PORTER 23 1 PLATSBRG 23 RYAN

20 October 216 Transmission Outages Higher levels of wind curtailment in the North were coincident with scheduled outages of the Chateaugay-Massena 756kV (#74), Massena-Marcy 765kV (#MSU1), and Moses-Massena 23kV (#MMS1/MMS2) transmission lines. On 1/3-1/6/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments was the Edic-Marcy 345kV. The correlated outage was that of the Marcy-Fraser Annex-Coopers 345kV (#UCC2-41) from 1/3/216 7: to 1/9/216 15:3 scheduled continuously. On 1/13/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments was the Moses-Adirondack 23kV (#MA1). The correlated outage was that of the Moses-Adirondack 23kV (#MA2) from 1/11/216 7:-1/14/216 15:3 scheduled continuously. On 1/18 & 1/19/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments was the Moses South interface. The correlated outage was that of the Massena-Marcy 765kV (#MSU1) from 1/17/216 1: to 1/22/216 19: scheduled continuously which impacts the Moses South TTC by 2,65MW reducing it from the TTC with all lines in service of 3,15MW to 5MW. On 1/22-1/25/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments were the Marcy 765/345kV bank AT1, the Adirondack-Chases Lake-Porter line. The correlated outages were the Marcy 765/345kV bank AT2 from 1/17/216 1: to 1/28/216 15:3 scheduled continuously, the CHAT_DC_GC1 & GC2 from 1/17/216 1: to 1/25/216 17:3 scheduled continuously, and the Adirondack-Porter 23kV (#12) from 1/24/216 HB23 to 1/25/216 HB15 forced continuously. Similarly, as noted in the October 216 Operations metrics reports highlights, higher levels of wind curtailments in the North Country that month were coincident with the scheduled outages of the Chateauguay-Massena 765kV (#74), Massena-Marcy 765kV (#MSU1), and Moses- Massena 23kV (#MMS1/MMS2) transmission lines. 2

21 October 216 Negative LBMP We do observe a correlation between wind curtailments and negative zonal LBMP 8% of the North zone RTD intervals in October 216 had negative LBMPs 77% of those RTD intervals were coincident with wind curtailments 17% of these RTD intervals were coincident with oversupply of energy The wind curtailments were driven by scheduled and unscheduled transmission facility outages. Oversupply of energy, usually in off-peak hours, is the other primary driver of negative LBMP. 21

22 Year 216 Negative LBMP Similar to the October 216 analysis, there is a correlation between wind curtailments and negative zonal LBMP 9% of the North zone RTD intervals in 216 had negative LBMPs 3% of those RTD intervals were coincident with wind curtailments 7% of these RTD intervals were coincident with oversupply of energy The wind curtailments were driven by scheduled and unscheduled transmission facility outages. Oversupply of energy, usually in off-peak hours, is the other primary driver of negative LBMP. 22

23 216: North Zone Negative RTD LBMP 6 Hourly Negative LBMP breakout 5 Duration (Hours) NEG RTD LBMP NEG RTD LBMP_WIND CURTAIL 23

24 Annual Negative RTD LBMP by Zone Duration (Hours) WEST GENESE CENTRL NORTH MHK VL CAPITL HUD VL MILLWD DUNWOD LONGIL N.Y.C

25 Questions? 25

26 The Mission of the New York Independent System Operator, in collaboration with its stakeholders, is to serve the public interest and provide benefits to consumers by: Maintaining and enhancing regional reliability Operating open, fair and competitive wholesale electricity markets Planning the power system for the future Providing factual information to policy makers, stakeholders and investors in the power system 26

27 Questions? We are here to help. Let us know if we can add anything.. 27