Beyond Bullet Points: Statistics, Trends and Analysis

Transcription

1 Beyond Bullet Points: Statistics, Trends and Analysis Vail R. Brown VP, Global Business Development &

2 5 THINGS TO KNOW

3 Click on Data Presentations

4 ADR Recovery

5 ADR Finally Reaches A New High 09/08: $ /13: $ Total U.S., Actual ADR $, 12 Month Moving Average, 2007 to Aug. 2013

6 Peak: Inflation Adjusted ADRs Still Not Reached Yet $ ADR Grown By CPI Nominal ADR 2000 / 2008 Grown by CPI $107 $ ADR Grown By CPI $85 $85 $104 $107 $ F Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, F CPI from bls.gov, CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

7 ADR Growth Levels. 10 OCC % Change ADR % Change 7.5% 5 4.1% % % Total U.S.: ADR & OCC % Change 12 Month Moving Average 2000 to August 2013

8 ADR Growth Leads Across All Segments Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy U.S. Chain Scales: OCC / ADR % Change, YTD August 2013

9 ADR (Slowly) Catches Up To Prior Record Highs $294 $286 $ YTD Forecast $164 $160 $161 $123 $122 $122 $97 $101 $101 $77 $77 $77 $56 $55 $54 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy U.S. Chain Scales: ADR $ YE 2008 & YTD August 2013 & 2013 Forecast as of 2Q

10 For 163 Markets: Mostly Increases Decrease ADR Increase Increase 30% 69% Occupancy Decrease 1% 0% Total U.S. ADR & OCC Change As of August YTD 2013

11 Peak ADRs Still Off Peak By Over $5 for 8 Of Top Markets $26.97 $22.16 $17.83 $10.63 $4.77 $4.67 $3.74 $1.29 $1.06 -$1.42 -$2.00 -$2.30 -$2.98 -$3.34 -$3.61 -$4.39 -$4.48 -$5.78 -$5.98 -$6.30 -$7.40 -$8.78 -$ $ $26.54 Top 25 Markets ADR $ Change From Prior Peak, as of July 2013

12 Change in Group Business

13 Demand Contribution Gap Deepens 70% Group mix Trans Mix 60% 50% 40% 30% Demand Contribution: Group & Transient Customer Mix Luxury, Upper-Upscale and top tier Independent hotels: Contract not shown, but included in total

14 Selling 4.9 Million Less Group Rooms From Peak U.S.: Luxury/Upper Upscale/Upper Tier Independents Group Room Demand in Millions 12 Month Moving Average 2005 to August 2013

15 YTD Group ADR Is 3.4% $ $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total U.S.: Monthly Group ADR 2008, 2010, 2012 & to August 2013 NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).

16 YTD August ADR $ : Transient Rooms Increase Premium $179 Transient $ Group $ $176 $169 $161 $157 $151 $149 $153 $143 $146 $150 $ Total U.S.: Customer Segmentation ADR $, YTD August NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).

17 New Hotels w/ 50,000+ Sqft Meeting Space Are A Dying Breed YTD U.S. Count of New Hotels with 50k+ Sqft of meeting space, by year,

18 Pipeline Accelerating

19 U.S. Pipeline: Construction Accelerates Phase August 2013 August 2012 % Change In Construction 78,739 66, % Final Planning 124, , % Planning 126, , % Active Pipeline 329, , % Total U.S.: Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year

20 Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated Total U.S.: Rooms In Construction by Scale In Thousands August 2013

21 Construction In Top 26 Markets: 10 With 2%+ Growth Market Rooms UC % Of Existing Las Vegas, NV 0.0% Minn-St Paul, MN-WI 0.0% Oahu Island, HI 0.0% Boston, MA % San Fran-San Mateo, CA % Norfolk-VA Beach, VA % Phoenix, AZ % Atlanta, GA % Detroit, MI % Dallas, TX % Chicago, IL 1, % Seattle, WA % San Diego, CA % Tampa-St Pete, FL % St Louis, MO-IL % Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA % New Orleans, LA % Philadelphia, PA-NJ % LA-Long Beach, CA 2, % Miami-Hialeah, FL 1, % Orlando, FL 2, % Houston, TX 1, % Washington, DC-MD-VA 2, % Denver, CO 1, % Nashville, TN 1, % New York, NY 12,610 11% U.S. Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, Aug. 2013

22 Global Demand

23 Europe Demand Is On The Upswing 10 8 U.S. Europe 6 4 Jul % Jul % U.S. vs. Europe Demand Percent Change 12 Moving Average YE July 2013

24 BRIC Demand Slowing Down. G7 Slow and Steady 25 BRICs G7 Oct % 10 Feb % Jul % -5 May % Aug % Jul % BRICs Vs G7 Demand Percent Change 12 Month Moving Average YE 2008 to July 2013

25 July 2013: Highest Monthly Room Demand EVER (108.5 Million)

26 More New Records Room Supply Room Demand Room Revenue 1.8 Billion 1.1 Billion $120.5 Billion Total U.S. 12 Month Moving Average August 2013 * All Time High

27 Favorable Supply / Demand Fundamentals for Demand Supply 8.0% 4 2.4% 0 0.7% % -6.9% Total U.S.: Supply & Demand % Change 12 Month Moving Average 2000 to August 2013

28 Seasonally Adjusted: Demand Slowing Total U.S.: Monthly Room Demand (In Millions) Seasonally Adjusted 2003 to July 2013

29 Forecast

30 Supply Below 20 Year Average Demand Above Supply % Chg Demand % Chg P 2014P 20 Yr Average Total U.S.: Supply/Demand Percent Change P

31 2013 OCC: 62.2% 2014 OCC: 63.1% Year Average: -0.04% P 2013P 2014P Total U.S.: Occupancy Percent Change P

32 Pretty Healthy ADR Growth Year Average: 3.0% P 2014P Total U.S.: ADR Percent Change P

33 Outlook 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast Supply 0.8% 1.1% Demand 2.2% 2.4% Occupancy 1.4% 1.3% ADR 4.2% 4.6% RevPAR 5.7% 6.0% Total U.S.: Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)

34 5 Things To Know. ADR Growth: Let s Call It 4.5% Group Growth: New Reality? Supply Growth: Slow(ly but Surely) Demand Growth: Healthy. Future Demand? Outlook: Boring. But Boring Is Good

35 Thank you! For a copy go to Click on Data Presentations