Lodging Industry Trends June 14, 2018
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1 Lodging Industry Trends June 14, 2018 Chris Klauda, CHIA Senior Research Director, STR 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
2 No Need To Take Notes Download This Presentation Data Dashboard>View All Data Presentations 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
3 Agenda What is STR? US Hotel Review Top Markets Segmentation Pipeline Forecasts 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 3
4 The Center of the Hotel Industry Benchmarking Universe: Hendersonville, TN
5 Hendersonville plus 19 other locations 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
6 What is? STR is a leading source for premium global data benchmarking, analytics and marketplace insights STR. All Rights Reserved. 6
7 STR Benchmark Building Blocks Supply (rooms available) Occupancy RevPAR Demand (rooms sold) ADR Revenue (rooms revenue) 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 7
8 STR Benchmark Building Blocks Supply = 100 rooms available RevPAR $80 Occupancy 80% ADR $100 Demand = 80 rooms sold Revenue = $8,000 rooms revenue 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 8
9 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. Total U.S. Review
10 US Hotel Performance Supply (1.88B rooms available) RevPAR $84 OCC 66.1% ADR $128 Demand (1.24B rooms sold) Revenue ($159B rooms revenue) April MMA, Total US Results 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 10
11 US Performance: RevPAR Growth Continues +5.2% +1.9% +2.9% +1.0% +2.2% +3.2% 1.88B Supply 1.24B Demand 66.1% Occupancy $128 ADR $84 RevPAR $159B Revenue April, MMA, Total US Results 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 11
12 Has the Hotel Industry Skipped a Downturn? Gulf War Supply % Change Demand % Change / Housing / Banking Crisis Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 4/ STR. All Rights Reserved. 12
13 Demand/Supply=Occupancy Occ % Change Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ / STR. All Rights Reserved. 13
14 Pricing Increases (a little), But So Does Inflation Occ % Change ADR % Change Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/ / STR. All Rights Reserved. 14
15 Real ADR Growth (ADR% minus CPI%) Hovers Around 0% Total U.S., Real ADR % Change (ADR minus CPI), by quarter, Q1/1990 Q4/ STR. All Rights Reserved. 15
16 15 8+ Consecutive Years of RevPAR Growth Months 56 Months 98 Months Gulf War Housing / 9/11 Banking Crisis Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/ / STR. All Rights Reserved. 16
17 This Expansion Cycle Fueled by High Demand, Low Supply Cycle Period: Dec Mar Mar present Length (months) Avg. Monthly Supply Growth Avg. Monthly Demand Growth Avg. Monthly ADR Growth Avg. Monthly RevPAR Growth STR. All Rights Reserved. 17
18 Class Review Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Four Seasons & Ritz-Carlton Marriott & Hilton DoubleTree, Courtyard & Wyndham Hampton, Fairfield & Holiday Inn Express Best Western, Candlewood Suites & Ramada Days Inn, Red Roof Inn, Super 8, Econo Lodge 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. Full Chain Class Listing:
19 Evidence of Induced Demand in Upscale and Upper Midscale Supply % Change Demand % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy (0.3) *Supply / Demand % Change, by Class, April MMA 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 19
20 ADR Growth Drives RevPAR Growth (But Occupancy Growth Still Contributes A Little) ADR % Change Occ % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Class, April MMA 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 20
21 Upscale and Upper Midscale Hotels Still Pretty Full Despite New Supply Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC %, by Class, April 2018 & MMA 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 21
22 Let The Good Times Roll All Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Are UP From Luxury to Economy Expansion Fueled by High Demand, Low Supply No Black Swans In Sight 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
23 Markets 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
24 Top and Bottom: Ranked by ADR % Change Market Occ % ADR (% chg) Influenced By Nashville, TN Bachelorette Parties + Miami/Hialeah, FL Leisure Demand Orlando, FL Leisure / Group Demand Atlanta, GA Strong Group Detroit, MI Recovery * April MMM ADR % Change and absolute OCC in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 24
25 Top and Bottom: Ranked by ADR % Change Market OCC % ADR (% chg) Influenced By San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Moscone Center Closed Apr Oct 2017 Chicago, IL 69.0 (0.3) Stronger Transient New York, NY 87.2 (0.5) Supply Washington, DC-MD-VA 71.8 (0.7) Inauguration / Women s March Comp Philadelphia, PA-NJ 70.0 (1.6) * April MMM ADR % Change and absolute OCC in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 25
26 Top and Bottom: Ranked by ADR % Change Market Occ % ADR (% chg) Influenced By Nashville, TN Bachelorette Parties + Miami/Hialeah, FL Leisure Demand Orlando, FL Leisure / Group Demand Atlanta, GA Detroit, MI TOP 25 MARKETS Higher Occupancy TOTAL US Greater Pricing Power Market OCC % ADR (% chg) Influenced By San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Moscone Center Closed Apr Oct 2017 Chicago, IL 69.0 (0.3) New York, NY 87.2 (0.5) Washington, DC-MD-VA 71.8 (0.7) Inauguration / Women s March Comp Philadelphia, PA-NJ 70.0 (1.6) * April MMM ADR % Change and absolute OCC in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 26
27 Segmentation 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
28 SEGMENTATION UPPER UPSCALE & LUXURY CLASS TRANSIENT GROUP 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. SOURCE: STR
29 Transient Performance: Soft April, But Demand Still Impressive 4% 3% 3.2% 2% 1% 0% Demand % Change ADR % Change Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan % *Transient Demand and ADR % Change Luxury/Upper Upscale, 12 MMA, 1/ / STR. All Rights Reserved. 29
30 Group Performance: A Spike in April, Thanks to Easter Shift 4% 3% 2% Easter Shift 1.9% 1% 0% -1% -2% Demand % Change ADR % Change Jewish Holiday Shift Easter Shift Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan % *Group Demand and ADR % Change Luxury/Upper Upscale, 12 MMA, 1/ / STR. All Rights Reserved. 30
31 Occupied Room Nights Spring/Fall Holiday Shift Impacts Monthly Group Demand TY = 2018 TY = ,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Group Demand Current Year *Total Number of Rooms Sold, Group and Transient, by month May April 2018 Group Demand Last Year 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 31
32 Segmentation ADR Showing A Pulse 5.0% 4.0% Transient ADR % Change Group ADR % Change 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 *ADR % Change Luxury/Upper Upscale, Transient & Group, 1/ / STR. All Rights Reserved. 32
33 ADR Current Group ADR Exceeds Last Year Every Month $210 $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 TY = 2018 TY = 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Group ADR Current Year Group ADR Last Year *ADR, Group, by month May April STR. All Rights Reserved. 33
34 Group and Transient Shift Planners: Calendars Matter; Better Negotiating Position Hotels/CVBs: Challenge to Balance Group and Transient Customers: Flexibility Offers Opportunity 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
35 Top 40 Markets Segmentation 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
36 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
37 Top 20 Markets Group ADR NYC SFO Oahu Miami BOS LA San Diego DC Austin Anaheim SEA PHX Fort Lauderdale NOLA CHI Nashville PHL JAX $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $ STR. All Rights Reserved. 37
38 Next 20 Group Markets ADR San Antonio ORL Portland DEN Charlotte Vancouver HOU Toronto Tampa DAL Indy ATL Sacramento Baltimore Montreal Louisville Pittsburgh MPS SLC STL $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $ STR. All Rights Reserved. 38
39 Group: ADR% change (vertical axis); Demand % change (horizontal axis) Demand Below ADR Above ADR and Demand Above US Average ADR and Demand Below US Average Demand Above ADR Below 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
40 Group Market Selection Expensive vs. Less Expensive Markets Growing vs. Slowing Demand Growing vs. Slowing ADR Supply Impacts High vs. Low Season And Then There is Pipeline 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
41 Pipeline 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
42 US Pipeline: First Decline in I/C since the Recovery (Now for 4 Months Running) Phase % Change In Construction % Final Planning % Planning % Under Contract % *Total US Pipeline, by Phase, 000s Rooms, April 2018 and STR. All Rights Reserved. 42
43 Thousands I/C Pipeline Is Leveling Off Below Prior Peak K High: Dec K April K 50 Low: May 11 50K *Total US Pipeline; Rooms In Construction, in 000s; 1/2006 4/ STR. All Rights Reserved. 43
44 Limited Service Construction Is The Name Of The Game 72% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *US Pipeline, Rooms In Construction, 000s Rooms, by Scale, March STR. All Rights Reserved. 44
45 Large Markets Grow Rapidly Market Rooms In Construction % Of Existing Nashville, TN 5,202 12% New York, NY 12,741 11% Denver, CO 4,597 10% Seattle, WA 3,690 8% Dallas, TX 6,508 8% *US Pipeline, Rooms I/C and as % of Existing Supply, Largest % In Top 26 Markets, April STR. All Rights Reserved. 45
46 Pipeline ( 000s rooms): Top 26 Markets Have 46% Of I/C Rooms In Construction Final Planning Planning Top 26 Markets Rest of the US *US Pipeline, Rooms ( 000s), Top 26 Markets vs. All Other Markets, April STR. All Rights Reserved. 46
47 New Hotels w/50,000+ SF of Meeting Space * 2019* Total U.S. Count of New Hotels with 50,000+ square feet of meeting space by year, April 2018 and projected for the remainder of 2018 and STR. All Rights Reserved. 47
48 Top 5 Projects In Construction By Meeting Space Project Name Market Projected Opening Date Room Count Total Meeting Space Sq Ft Gaylord Rockies Hotel & Conference Center Denver 12/ ,000 Fairmont Austin Austin 09/ ,000 Hyatt Regency Seattle Seattle 06/ ,000 Omni Louisville Louisville 03/ ,000 JW Marriott Nashville Nashville 07/ , STR. All Rights Reserved. 48
49 Forecast 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
50 Easter: Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2018: Shift from April to March (also affects Q1/Q2) Election Day 11/6: Likely low room demand the night before Halloween: Shift from TUE to WED, likely impacting full week Notable Market Level Events / Comps: Super Bowl: From Houston (2017) To Minneapolis (2018) San Francisco: Moscone Center Reopened, easy comps Q2/Q3 Washington, D.C.: Inauguration & Women s March (January 2017) Houston: Hurricane Harvey October and all of Q Florida: Hurricane Irma October and all of Q California: Wildfires in Q STR. All Rights Reserved. 50
51 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2018F 2019F Outlook Metric 2017 Actuals 2018 Forecast 2019 Forecast Supply 1.87B 2.0% 1.9% Demand 1.23B 2.4% 2.0% Occupancy 65.9% 0.4% 0.1% ADR $ % 2.3% RevPAR $85 2.9% 2.4% 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 51
52 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2018F by Chain Scale 2018 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury 0.9% 2.9% 3.8% Upper Upscale 0.2% 2.1% 2.3% Upscale -0.1% 2.0% 1.8% Upper Midscale 0.1% 2.0% 2.1% Midscale 0.4% 2.4% 2.9% Economy 0.5% 2.7% 3.2% Independent 0.4% 2.7% 3.1% Total United States 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 52
53 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2019F by Chain Scale 2019 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.1% 2.2% 2.1% Upper Upscale 0.0% 2.3% 2.3% Upscale -0.2% 2.1% 1.9% Upper Midscale -0.1% 2.1% 2.0% Midscale -0.1% 2.0% 1.9% Economy 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% Independent 0.1% 2.1% 2.2% Total United States 0.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. 53
54 Forecast Summary (STR as of May 2018, CBRE and PWC as of February 2018) 2018 as Supply 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Demand 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% Occupancy 0.4% -0.1% 0.2% ADR 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% RevPAR 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2019 Supply 1.9% 1.9% Demand 2.0% 1.9% Occupancy 0.1% 0.0% ADR 2.3% 2.0% RevPAR 2.4% 2.0% 54
55 Final Takeaways U.S. hotel economy isn't just "holding on"...it's accelerating Supply grows, but is only problematic in certain locales Demand remains impressive, bodes well for summer Pricing power shows signs of life...let's see if it continues Travelers should prepare to pay more at luxury and economy hotels; these classes have shown greatest rate gains this year Hotel economy is predicated on broader economy. Will be watching interest rates, inflation, and gas prices STR. All Rights Reserved.
56 Thank you! 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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