Vail Town Council & Vail Economic Advisory Council Update

Transcription

1 Vail Town Council & Vail Economic Advisory Council Update June 21, 2016 Presented by Ralf Garrison

2 INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer What you ought to know 2

3 MTNWEST Aspen Avon, Colorado Big Sky Breckenridge Beaver Creek Copper Gunnison/Crested Butte Keystone Mt Bachelor Mammoth Lakes Jackson Hole North Lake Tahoe Snowmass Steamboat Park City Area Summit County, CO Telluride Vail Winter Park SUN&BEACH Hilton Head Florida Keys Golden Isles Experience Kissimmee Visit Florida ASSOCIATIONS&CORPORATIONS Onsite Property Management Association Colorado Hotel & Lodging Association Vail Resorts - Lodging Destination Hotels & Resorts Mtn Collection

4 Vail Property Participation Reports with data as of May 31, 2016 include: 25 properties representing 2,456 units 62% of total community census 4

5 25 Data Submitting Properties Antlers at Vail Arrabelle at Vail Square Christiania Lodge & Christiania Condos Destination Resorts Vail Vail Cascade Condos Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower Manor Vail Resort Montaneros Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences 5

6 INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer What you ought to know 6

7 Confidence, The DOW & Unemployment January 06 Apr % 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% Dow Jones 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% Confidence 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Unemployment 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 17, %

8 Market Update Jan 2014: $1 CAD = $0.94 USD Jan 2014: 1 EUR = $1.36 USD June 2016: $1 CAD = $0.77 USD June 2016: 1 EUR = $1.13 USD +18% +17% 8

9 Economic Overview Economic Tide: Softer and uncertain. Election adds wildcard Battle for the Beds: More Demand than Supply, adds to price, drives shift to highest/best use = short term Rent-By-Owner Channels come into mainstream Regulatory pushback is growing, sometimes potentially over-reaching Attractions: Shifting, Slowly but Surely Legacy attractions (Ski/Golf, etc.): Flat at Best Social/Group Based Exercise - Less competitive/timed events, more socially based Increased influence of Post Title 9, and more X Chromosome influenced Consumer Shifts in 2016: More Leisure than Business (Air) Travel Millennials than Boomers Women than Men: Running events example 9

10 INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. Review: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer What you ought to know 10

11 Occupancy Winter 15/16 Data as of April 30,

12 Data as of April 30, 2016 ADR Winter 15/16 12

13 Data as of April 30, 2016 RevPAR Winter 15/16 13

14 Vail Seasonal Totals by Month Occupancy ADR RevPAR Nov '15-6% +4% -2% Dec '15-5% +5% 0% Jan '16-2% +5% +3% Feb '16-2% +6% +3% Mar '16 0% +5% +4% Apr '16-1% +5% +3% 14

15 Vail Ski Season 15/16 Sales Tax Year over Year % Change Retail % Lodging & Property Mgmt % Food and Beverage % Other % TOTAL % 15

16 As of April 30, 2016 Vail MDC 16

17 Occupancy Data as of November 30, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Vail Daily Occupancy Winter 2015/16 31-Oct-15 7-Nov Nov Nov Nov-15 5-Dec Dec Dec Dec-15 9-Jan-16 2-Jan Jan Jan Jan-16 6-Feb Feb Feb-16 Date(Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 27-Feb-16 5-Mar Mar Mar Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr Apr Apr Apr-16 17

18 Occupancy Data as of April 30, 2016 Vail Daily Occupancy Winter 2015/16 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 4/30 (22-24 properties) 2015/16 - as of 4/30/16 (24 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 4/30/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) 31-Oct-15 7-Nov Nov Nov Nov-15 5-Dec Dec Dec Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan Jan Jan Jan-16 6-Feb Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 20-Feb Feb-16 5-Mar Mar Mar Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr Apr Apr Apr-16 18

19 Vail vs. Industry Winter Performance 2007/ / % 40.0% Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/ % 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 26.7% 24.3% 15.6% 11.3% 3.4% -2.1% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 15/16 vs '07/08 19

20 46.7 Skier/Snowboarder Visits (millions) Estimated Skier Visits 85/86-15/16 and 4 Year Moving Average /16 Colorado Skier Visits: 7.4 million 2015/ %

21 INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer What you ought to know 21

22 Summer 2016 Business On the Books as % of 2015 total as of 5/31/ Nights 63.4% 2016 Revenue 71.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22

23 Occupancy Summer 2016 Data as of May 31,

24 Data as of May 31, 2016 ADR Summer

25 RevPAR Summer 2016 Data as of May 31,

26 Vail MDC 26

27 As of May 31, 2016 Vail Daily Occupancy Summer

28 Vail vs. Industry Summer Performance % 60.0% Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007 Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs % 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 44.3% 35.3% 27.6% 22.0% 12.8% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07

29 INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer What you ought to know 29

30 Destination Dashboard 30

31 Group vs FIT 31

32 32 Click Morphing to edit Master Bed Base title style Rent By Owner Private Homes VRBO Airbnb Hotels HomeAway.com Condos Time Share Graphic representation not to scale. 18

33 33 Click DOR to Special edit Master Event title Overlay style

34 Thank you! 34