Wholesale Electricity Price and Retail Requirements, and Natural Gas Price Forecasts. Michael Schilmoeller Power Committee Thursday January 8, 2009
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1 Wholesale Electricity Price and Retail Requirements, and Natural Gas Price Forecasts Michael Schilmoeller Power Committee Thursday January 8, 2009 Overview Wholesale electricity prices Energy requirements Natural gas price 2 Page 1
2 Current Electricity Price Forecast Interim, created Monday 1/5/2009 PNW prices east of the Cascades Average hydrogeneration conditions Most recent electricity requirements forecast Most recent (11/28/2008) natural gas price forecast To be updated: CO2 penalty assumptions RPS resource development assumptions cost and availability of new resources 3 Current Electricity Price Forecast $/MWh Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Source: chart MONTHLY PRICES, wkb AO_6P_ _ABL_HD MONTHLY POWER PRICE FORECAST.XLS 4 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 On-peak Off-peak Jan-26 Jan-27 Jan-28 Jan-29 Jan-30 Page 2
3 Current Electricity Price Forecast On-peak Off-peak $/MWh Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Source: chart MONTHLY PRICES2, wkb AO_6P_ _ABL_HD MONTHLY POWER PRICE FORECAST.XLS 5 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Current Conditions (ICE) On-peak Off-peak $/MWh Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Source: chart Chart 1, wkb ICE MONTHLY AVERAGE XLS 6 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Page 3
4 Current Electricity Price Forecast On- and Off-Peak Average Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 $2006/MWh Source: wks Electricity Price Futures, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 7 Current Electricity Price Futures $2006/MWh Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Source: wks Electricity Price Futures, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 8 Page 4
5 Deciles for Electricity Price Electricity $2006/MWh input Source: wks EP Deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from L805 after extraction.xls 9 Close-Up on Deciles Electricity $2006/MWh input Source: wks EP Deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from L805 after extraction.xls 10 Page 5
6 Overview Wholesale electricity prices Energy requirements Natural gas price 11 Current Frozen Efficiency Load Forecast Regional loads without the aluminum smelters, i.e., Non-DSI loads Total requirements, including those for system energy losses, i.e., bus bar loads Loads in the absence of any customer response to market prices or to new conservation program availability or technology, i.e., frozen efficiency loads Include, however, conservation due to legislated programs and national appliance standards in place at the beginning of the study. 12 Page 6
7 Current Frozen Efficiency Load Forecast MWa Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Source: wks Load Deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 13 Applying the Fifth Plan s s Range Futures MWa Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Source: wks Load Futures, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 14 Page 7
8 Distribution in Deciles Non-DSI Energy Requirements MWa Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep Source: wks Load Deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 15 Annualized for Comparison original benchmark Source: wks Load Deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 16 Page 8
9 Comparison with Fifth Plan Average Megawatts th Plan Adjusted Non-DSI Load Range Source: Figure P-35, Appendix P, NWPCC Fifth Power Plan 17 Comparison with Fifth Plan Council Load Forecast and Portfolio Model Range th Plan Adjusted Non-DSI Load Range Portfolio Model Non-DSI Load Range Average Megawatts Hydro Operating Year Source: Figure P-34, Appendix P, NWPCC Fifth Power Plan 18 Page 9
10 Overview Wholesale electricity prices Energy requirements Natural gas price 19 Current Forecast Latest Draft Natural Gas Price Forecast (developed 11/21/2008) Medium case Variable price component only Fully allocated price is about $0.50/MMBTU higher PNW price west of the Cascades ( Westside price ) Eastside prices forecast to remain about $0.60/MMBTU lower 20 Page 10
11 Current Forecast Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 $2006/MMBTU Source: wks NGP deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 21 Futures for Natural Gas Prices $2206/MMBTU Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Source: wks NGP futures, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 22 Page 11
12 Natural Gas Price Deciles 6 $2006/MMBTU Mean input Dec-10 Mar-12 Jun-13 Dec-15 Mar-17 Jun-18 Dec-20 Mar-22 Jun-23 Dec-25 Mar-27 Jun-28 Source: wks NGP deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 23 Natural Gas Price Deciles $2006/MMBTU Dec-10 Mar-12 Jun-13 Dec-15 Mar-17 Jun-18 Dec-20 Mar-22 Jun-23 Dec-25 Mar-27 Jun Mean input Source: wks NGP deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 24 Page 12
13 Natural Gas Price Deciles 4 $2006/MMBTU input Source: wks NGP deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 25 Natural Gas Price Deciles $2006/MMBTU input Source: wks NGP deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 26 Page 13
14 Natural Gas Price Deciles $2006/MMBTU input 2.00 NWPCC high case NWPCC medium high case NWPCC medium low case NWPCC low case Source: wks NGP deciles, wkb Illustrations and graphs from 27 End Page 14
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