Machiel Coetzee 10 September Transmission Grid Consulting 1

Transcription

1 Machiel Coetzee 10 September 2012 Consulting 1

2 Mozambique Power Market Overview Demand New Energy Supply SAPP Supply/Demand Balance Power Evacuation Options Existing grid - transmission bottlenecks Future expansion Mozambique Transmission Backbone (STE project) Consulting 2

3 Consulting 3

4 Southern network: High load growth (±14%) Power import limit from South Africa (1390MVA) Two 400 kv lines via Motraco network to supply Mozal One 275 kv line supply EdM Existing load is approx. 400 MW without Mozal (950MW) MW 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Southern Region Generation: Gas at Ressano Garcia: 100 MW (short term < 24 months) 140 MW (EdM & Sasol initiative) 100 MW CTM 50 MW gas Small hydros Import via SA from HCB Legend: - Low Forecast - Medium Forecast - High Forecast Consulting 4

5 High load growth: -/+14% Small hydro generation to supply load HCB supply load Export power via HVDC to SA & Zimbabwe MW Central Region Potential to substantial hydro, fossil & gas power of ±12 GW MW 700 Northern Region Gas & hydro over medium to long term No connection to South where the load is concentrated Legend: - Low Forecast - Medium Forecast High Forecast Consulting 5

6 Mphanda Nkuwa MW Cahora Bassa NB MW Ncondezi MW MW Moatize MW MW Benga MW MW Jindal MW Lupata MW Boroma MW Short/Medium Term Long Term Consulting 6

7 MW Energy Outlook for Mozambique Supply /Demand power balance (SAPP) Planned Capacity vs Forecast, MW All SAPP Members Forecast Capacity Planned SOURCE: SAPP 7

8 Consulting 8

9 Many generation projects with limited evacuation options to the load centers in the region Cahora Bassa North bank Mphanda Nkuwa Moatize/Benga Ncondezi New transmission infrastructure required to evacuate the energy HCB Songo Cataxa Matambo Caia/Northern load options Zimbabwe Existing transmission options: Feed into Matambo link which gives access to Zimbabwe, Maputo (via SA) & South Africa Feed to into Northern grid HVDC Inchope Vilanculos Chibuto HVAC Circuit +/- 700 MW 1340 km Moamba Apollo (SA) Maputo Consulting 9

10 Potential Evacuation Options SA and Zimbabwe Two possible routes to wheel (transmit) power to South Africa in the short term HCB Limitation: Transformer at Songo 600 MVA Stability (voltage collapse): 450 MW G5 Songo G1 G2 G3 G4 ZESA Bindura HVAC busbar HVDC busbar Insukamini Phokoje Route 1 Route 2 Limitation: HVDC terminals 1920 MW Limitation: Wheeling via Zesa Stability import limit - +/ MW Matimba Eskom Apollo 10

11 Adequate transfer capacity from Matambo to Songo Matambo Songo 247 MVA line to be upgraded to 477 MVA 2075 MW MW G 247 MVA/ 477 MVA EdM load:? ZESA Trfr = 600 MVA 477 MVA Songo/HCB Matambo 1920 MW Reversal of power G All IPP s MW Power flow Apollo 11

12 STE - Socidade Nacional de Transporte de Energia (formerly known as CESUL) Feasibility study nearly completed Next phase is to finalise network specifications & special scheme to safeguard the network SPV will be formed & this entity will manage the STE implementation Possible members will be: EdM (Mozambique) REN (Portugal) Eskom (South Africa) EDF (France) Electrobas (Brazil) Consulting 12

13 The STE network is designed to transfer: HVDC MW, initially 1325MW Cahora Bassa North bank Mphanda Nkuwa HVAC - +/ MW, however during normal operation it will transfer +/ MW Songo Cataxa Matambo Initial idea is to transfer hydro power from the north to Eskom (Mphanda Nkuwa and CBNB) Eskom feeds approximately 1350 MW into the South of Mozambique via Motraco HVDC Circuit 2650 MW 1275 km Inchope Vilanculo s Chibuto HVAC Circuit +/- 700 MW 1340 km This power flow direction will be reversed with the commissioning of the STE network Moamba Maputo Consulting 13

14 Mozambique is ready for more IPP s To exploit the shortage of energy, get a PPA in place as soon as possible Load growth higher than 14% More potential industrial load expected throughout the country Existing transmission infrastructure is limited More investment required to create evacuation options to the potential off-takers Start with small power plants and develop as required by the load growth in Mozambique and the development of a potential market outside Mozambique: South Africa Utility Industry Malawi Ideally located Zimbabwe Potential high load growth Other trading opportunities in the SAPP Consulting 14