Modeling Trends of the European Electricity Sector with a Focus on Nuclear Phase-outs in the UK and France

Transcription

1 Berlin Conference on Energy and Electricity Econonomics; Berlin, 12. October 2016 Modeling Trends of the European Electricity Sector with a Focus on Nuclear Phase-outs in the UK and France Pao-Yu Oei, Clemens Gerbaulet, Christian von Hirschhausen, Mario Kendziorski, Casimir Lorenz Technische Universität Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), Energy, Transport and Environment (EVU) February.2016

2 Model application: Dynelmod Scope: Europe Objective: System Cost minimization Capacity Cost and Generation Cost Investment cost Generation Capacities Grid Expansion Investments: five-year steps (2015), 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, plant dispatch: hourly resolution over set of ~350 hours Boundary condition examples Country-sharp power plant portfolio development (decommissioning of existing plants) Electricity demand development per Country CO 2 -Budget over time Market coupling: NTC or Flow-Based Source: Gerbaulet and Lorenz (2016) February.2016

3 Power Plants and Networks in Europe Water Biomass Hard coal Wind Lignite Diesel Fuel Oil Gas Nuclear Furnace gas Oil shale Synthetic gas Source: Schneider, Kuhs (2013) February.2016

4 Structural Changes in the Future, decommissioning of nuclear power plants in Europe Source: Schneider, Kuhs (2013) February.2016

5 Implemented CO 2 emission constraint for Europe aiming at a decarbonization of the electricity sector until Mt CO Source: Energy Roadmap 2050; Impact Assesment SEC (2011) 1565; page 70 ; Scenario: "Diversified supply scenario"; column Power generation/district heating for EU27 countries February.2016

6 The European Commission reduced their nuclear projection but still includes new constructions, esp. in France and UK GW EC Reference Scenario 2013 EC Reference Scenario 2016 Source: EC (2013, 2016) February.2016

7 Transition Enérgétique à la francaise Electricity Sector Other sectors Nuclear Renewable energies Demand on (share of gross electricity consumption) fossil fuels Greenhouse gas emissions Final energy consumption 50% 40% -30% -40% -75% -50% (base 2012) (base 1990) (base 2012) The share of nuclear energy accounted for 76% in 2015 France. The Transition Enérgétique lays-out a pathway for the next decade but many things remain uncertain afterwards. The following slides examine a sobriety scenario developed by Criqui, et al. (2015) assuming a path for 2050 with - 0% share of nuclear, - >80% renewables, - -50% energy consumption Source: Loi sur la transition énérgétique (2015) February.2016

8 Results of the sobriety scenario for France until 2050 France remains an electricity exporter despite the nuclear phase-out TWh trade Wind Sun Biomass Hydro Fossil Nuclear Soruce: Own modeling based on Criqui, et al. (2015) February.2016

9 Expected closure of existing nuclear power plants and investments in newbuilds envisaged by the UK energy strategy GW existing Capacity planned Capacity Source: National Audit Office (2016), PRIS Database, own assumptions February.2016

10 Two possible scenarios for a nuclear phase-out in the UK sector-coupling might lead to increasing import needs in 2050 Scenario D-EXP (decarbonize and expand) depicts an intensive sector coupling and the usage of gas in combination with carbon capture, transport, and sequestration (CCTS). Scenario M-VEC (multivector transition) is less reliant on electrification, and foresees a growth of electricity consumption only between 2040 and 2050 and a more limited availability of CCTS. TWh D-EXP M-VEC Nuclear Coal Gas Gas (CCTS) Hydro Biomass Solar Wind Trade other Soruce: Own modeling based on Pye, et al. (2015) February.2016

11 Conclusion: Decarbonization of the European electricity sector is compatible with a reduction of nuclear capacities A reduction of nuclear capacities leads to increased investment in gas, renewables, and storage; reduced electricity generation by coal to be in line with the European CO 2 target; Shifts in electricity trades between neighbouring countries depending on national strategies. 4,500 TWh 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, other Wind Sun Biomass Hydro Gas CCS Gas Coal Lignite Nuclear February.2016

12 Berlin Conference on Energy and Electricity Econonomics; Berlin, 12. October 2016 Modeling Trends of the European Electricity Sector with a Focus on Nuclear Phase-outs in the UK and France Pao-Yu Oei, Clemens Gerbaulet, Christian von Hirschhausen, Mario Kendziorski, Casimir Lorenz Technische Universität Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), Energy, Transport and Environment (EVU) February.2016

13 Model application: Dynelmod Investments Conventional power plants Renewables (PV, Wind Onshore/Offshore, CSP) Storage (several storage options; e.g. Battery storage options, pumped hydro storage) Grid expansion (increase of NTCs) Other Data Hourly RES feed-in and load for 2012 based on ENTSO-E and ECWMF weather data Increase in full-load hours of renewables over time Cost data mainly based on Schröder et al. (2013) Investment, Fix, and variable capacity cost Calculation over a set of hours Variation of time-of day Variation of season Scaling for feed-in and demand time series February.2016

14 Flow-based market coupling Aggregation to a zonal PTDF The flow based cross border interaction characteristics are derived from the actual underlying grid structure Aggregation line sharp data to a country sharp PTDF PTDF Calculation from the actual AC grid 1 PPPF l,nn = H l,n B n,nn Load on line using PTDF n P l = PPPF l,n nnnnnnnt n n Aggregation to a zonal PTDF with maximum transfer capacities zzzzz P cc,ccc = PPPF cc,ccc,cccc P mmm cc,ccc cccc = min ii P ii mmm nnnnnnnt cccc PPPF ii,cc PPPF ii,ccc Node-sharp representation of the European high voltage grid February.2016 Blue: HVDC, red: 380 kv, yellow: 300 kv, green: 220 kv

15 Research on nuclear at DIW Berlin and TU Berlin DIW Berlin Wochenbericht: : Atomkraft: Auslaufmodell mit ungelöster Endlagerfrage : Stromversorgung bleibt sicher Große Herausforderungen und hohe Kosten bei Rückbau und Endlagerung : Rückbau und Entsorgung in der deutschen Atomwirtschaft: öffentlichrechtlicher Atomfonds erforderlich : Europäische Klimaschutzziele sind auch ohne Atomkraft erreichbar DIW Berlin Data Documentation 2015: Stand und Perspektiven des Rückbaus von Kernkraftwerken in Deutschland ("Rückbau- Monitoring 2015") DIW Berlin Round-up: Uranium Power and the Uranium Market are Reserve and Ressource Sufficient (forthcoming) February.2016

16 France in focus Technical lifetime of nuclear power plants is years in Base scenario. Early exit scenario: Plants decommissioned in 2030 are phased-out already in 2025 (>42 years). Shutdown before 2020 Shutdown before 2025 Shutdown before 2030 Installed Capacity in France in GW Base No new Nuclear EarlyExit February.2016

17 Assumptions for nuclear decommission in France Last active model year Plant Capacity (MW) Start Base No new nuclear France Early Exit Fessenheim Fessenheim Bugey Bugey Bugey Bugey Dampierre Gravelines B Gravelines B Tricastin Tricastin Blayais Dampierre Dampierre Dampierre Gravelines B Gravelines B Tricastin Tricastin Blayais Blayais Blayais St. Lauent B St. Lauent B Chinon B Chinon B Cruas Meysse Cruas Meysse Cruas Meysse Cruas Meysse Last active model year Plant Capacity (MW) Start Base No new nuclear France Early Exit Gravelines C Gravelines C Paluel 1 1, Paluel 2 1, Flamanville 1 1, Paluel 3 1, Paluel 4 1, St. Alban 1 1, Cattenom 1 1, Chinon B Flamanville 2 1, St. Alban 2 1, Belleville 1 1, Cattenom 2 1, Chinon B Nogent 1 1, Belleville 2 1, Nogent 2 1, Penly 1 1, Cattenom 3 1, Golfech 1 1, Cattenom 4 1, Penly 2 1, Golfech 2 1, Chooz B-1 1, Chooz B-2 1, Civaux 1 1, Civaux 2 1, February.2016

18 Nuclear development assumptions for Europe GW Base No new nuclear France early exit February.2016