Technology goals within the EPIA Roadmap

Transcription

1 The Road Map Technology goals within the EPIA Roadmap Dr. Hubert A. Aulich Member of the Board PV Crystalox Solar AG PV Silicon AG

2 Introduction Roadmap focuses on these key areas: The Solar Perspective Technology Boundary conditions for growth

3 Transformation of Global Energy Systems, an Exemplary Path Geothermie andere Erneuerbare Solarthermie (nur Wärme) Solarstrom (PV und solarthermische Kraftwerke) Wind Biomasse (modern) Biomasse (traditionell) Wasserkraft Kernenergie yearly Energy consumtion [EJ/a] Gas Kohle Öl Quelle: Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen, Jahr

4 TWh World electicity World electricity production World electricity production from 2000 to 2040 Source :Solar Generation and IEA-PVPS from 2000 to 2040 KD World Electricity Generated from PV in TWh World Electricity Generated from PV in TWh World Electricity Generation in TWh World Electricity Generation in TWh % 34% 15% Growth Contribution of PV solar electricity to global electricity production

5 I. Market Development Business as usual annual Worlwide market in MWp Source: Workshop 22 nd of December

6 How To Accomplish Long-term, How to accomplish Dynamic PV-growth: Reduce cost of installed system Develop markets in EU and Developing/ Emerging Countries Innovation, New Products Low environmental impact (recycling and reusing in a voluntary basis)

7 Cost Reduction With New Technologies Module - Crystalline Silicon Technology - Thin Film Technology BOS - Grid connected - Off-grid -BIPV

8 Targets Cost Reduction Crystalline Silicon Technology Dependable solar-grade silicon supply 2008/2009 Specific silicon consumption down to 7,5t /MWp(2010) - Wafers 150µm (2010) - Solar cells Cz 20% to 22% mc 17% to 18% Modules >20% efficiency and lifetime expectancy 35 years (2010)

9 Targets Cost Reduction Thin Film Technology Materials a-si, CIS, CdTe, c-si) Increased process area to 3m² (2010) and 9 m² (2020) Efficiencies 10-12% (2010) on to 15% (>2020). Lower efficiencies and low cost /m² BIPV New concepts

10 II.Production (1) Silicon Production [tons] Source for 2005: 2005 CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, rest estimated increase according to announced new production facilities.

11 II.Production (2) Volume available by [tons] by 2010 could be a realistic target. Price per Kg 30 to 40 /Kg is considered as realistic for 2010 or even lower. Wafer thickness 2008 to µm in 2005, 100 to 130 µm for the end of the decade is achievable. Volume for Thin-Film: 1 GWp probably too ambitious, participants agreed on appr.600 MWp Upgraded MG-Si Considerable investment into c-si production to meet the industry needs

12 II.Production (3) [µm] ,0% Ingots/Wafer thickness and Cell Efficiency ,5% 15,0% ,5% ,0% ,5% ,0% ,5% [Efficiency in %] % 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% Ingots/Wafer thickness (µm) Cell efficiency (in percent)

13 II.Production (4) g/wp Estimated Silicon consumption in g/wp and potential Module Production [MWp] , , ,0 10, , ,5 8,0 7,

14 II. Production - Assumptions Silicon Production [tons] Silicon Cons. [g/wp] csi [MWp] Thin Film / New concepts / New players [MWp] Total [MWp] (CSi/TF/New)

15 II. Production Modules (c-si, Thin Film, new concepts) [tons] Possible Total Production [MWp] 5, ,825 3,088 2,089 1, , , csi Thin-Film / New concepts / New players

16 100% Price experience 20% 15% 10% 1% Cumulative installed GWp PV CONTRIBUTION TOTAL ELECTRICITY Price-experience curve for PV modules % %

17 System Development Systems Development

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19 Power and Communication

20 Target Cost Targets BOS Reduction BOS Modularisation and Standardisation On-grid: competitive peak power 2010 competitive commercial power 2010 Off-grid: Better than diesel 2010 Village-grids and regional grids with PV-Hybrids 2020 (introduction of feed in tariff for mini grids)

21 IV. Conclusion More than 5 GWp annual installed capacity achievable by 2010, both from the production side as well as from the Market Continue Lobby (remove Caps/schemes/sustainability) SG Silicon available PV follows price experience curve PV becomes competitive in a decade in southern countries at peak electricity prices (additional decade for northern countries)

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