PHASE CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM SMITH SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD. Oxford, 28 November 2014
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1 Oxford, 28 November 2014 PHASE CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM SMITH SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD Michael Liebreich, Chairman of the Advisory Board
2 PHASE CHANGE Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete transition of that system to another state. Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary 2
3 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 21% $318bn -10% $286bn -11% 17% 34% 0.6% $195bn $196bn $262bn $254bn 44% $167bn 46% $55bn 45% $80bn $116bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3
4 RENEWABLE ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Note: Excludes large-scale hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4
5 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION ($BN) North America & Caribbean Europe '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Asia & Oceania Central & South America Middle East & Africa '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5
6 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN EUROPE Q Q ($BN) Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q Four quarter running average Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Michael 23 December Liebreich 2014 Oxford, 28 November 6
7 EUROPEAN POLICY SUPPORT SCHEMES UNDER REVIEW, 2013 Comprehensive review under way Retroactive changes implemented ( ) Suspended Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7
8 : CONSOLIDATION Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8
9 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD NEX NASDAQ S&P Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Note: Values as of 08 October 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2011 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 23/12/2014 9
10 5 JANUARY 2014 CBS/CNBC CLEANTECH CRASH Credit: CNBC / CBS Michael Liebreich Oxford, 28 November 10
11 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2014 YTD NEX NASDAQ S&P Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Note: Values as of 19 November 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 23/12/
12 PV EXPERIENCE CURVE (2013 $/W) 100 Cost per W (2013 $) SOLAR PV MODULE COSTS HAVE FALLEN 99% SINCE Q ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 experience curve Chinese c-si module prices (BNEF) First Solar thin-film module cost historic prices (Maycock) Thin-film experience curve Cumulative capacity (MW) Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI. Source: Paul Maycock, First Solar, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12
13 AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND (EUR/MWH) 500 WIND POWER COSTS HAVE FALLEN 26% SINCE ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Note: Learning curve (blue) is least square regression: R 2 =0.88 and 14% learning rate. CAPEX, OPEX and capacity factor evolution is included in this LCOE analysis; financing assumptions kept constant. MW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool 13
14 DRIVERS OF REDUCED ASSET INVESTMENT $251.5 bn -20% -4.7% $ 191.7bn Investment 2011 Price impact Volume impact Investment 2013 Note: Based on a high level calculation of global figures for all renewable energy sectors. Impacts of regional and sector shifts are internalised here. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14
15 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY H ($/MWH) Marine - wave Marine - tidal STEG - LFR STEG - parabolic trough STEG - tower & heliostat Wind - offshore PV - thin film PV - c-si PV - c-si tracking Biomass - anaerobic digestion Biomass - gasification Biomass - incineration Municipal solid waste Geothermal - binary plant Wind - onshore Small hydro Large hydro Landfill gas Geothermal - flash plant Natural gas CCGT Coal fired CHP Nuclear PV projects as low as $80/MWh Onshore wind as low as $37/ MWh Q central H central Fossil technologies: US China Europe Australia Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 15
16 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD NEX S&P 500 Oil & Gas S&P 500 Utilities Stowe Global Coal 50 0 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Note: Values as of 21 November 2014; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 23/12/
17 US WIND PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H H ($/MWH) Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 PJM MISO Mountain West NEPOOL NYISO SPP 250 MW Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. PPA price is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the year1 selling price. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC 17
18 US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H H ($/MWH) Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 AZ CA CO NM NV NY TX 250 MW Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. PPA price is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the year1 selling price. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC 18
19 CUMULATIVE FUNDS CLOSED BY SELECTED THIRD-PARTY FINANCIERS, JAN 2009-MAR 2014 ($M) 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Solar City Sunrun SunPower Clean Power Finance SunEdison Vivint Sungevity Note: This represents fund size; actual capital invested is lower and non-public. This figure may not include all non-public deals. Does not include all third-party financiers. Each fund contains an unknown combination of equity, tax equity or debt (or an absence of tax equity or debt). *The $300m Clean Power Finance fund raised on 3 May 2012 does not contain tax equity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 19
20 US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, (BCFD) Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Marcellus Eagle Ford Rest of US 'shale' Haynesville Fayetteville Barnett Woodford Bakken Antrim Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 20
21 US AGE OF GAS UPDATE 1: VOLUME SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, (BCFD) Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Rest of US 'shale' Haynesville Fayetteville Barnett Woodford Bakken Antrim Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 21
22 US CRUDE OIL (M BARRELS / DAY) IMPORTS PRODUCTION % since % since Source: EIA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 22
23 US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY FUEL EFFICIENCY (MILES/GALLON) ANNUAL VEHICLE-DISTANCE TRAVELLED (1,000 MILES PER PERSON) % since % since Note: Mpg figures are sales weighted average. Total vehicle miles grew at 2.7% CAGR between 1971 and 2007 Source: US DOT, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 23
24 CHINA S AIR QUALITY PROBLEM (PM2.5 µg per cubic meter) 993 Beijing 12 Jan 2013 World Health Organisation Guideline Picture credit: Feng Li/Getty Images 25 24
25 CHINESE PREMIER DECLARES WAR ON POLLUTION We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty Li Keqiang Premier of the People's Republic of China March 2014 Credit: Bloomberg 25
26 CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, , 2020 & 2030 GW Renewable energy 68% of new capacity Historic Forecast Biomass & waste Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council 26
27 CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, , 2020 & 2030 GW Renewable energy 68% of new capacity Historic Forecast Biomass & waste Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council 27
28 ENERGIEWENDE 2: INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY, ($ BN) Cumulative capex spent $166 billion Other Wind Solar Note: Investment figures includes asset finance and small distributed capacity investment. Biofuels and other non-power generation sectors excluded. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 28
29 ENERGIEWENDE 1: CHANGES IN GENERATING MIX (TWH) Q1 2014: Renewable energy provided 28% of German electricity Thermal Other renewables Biomass- & liquids PV Wind Hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BMWI 29
30 ENERGIEWENDE (TWH) Nuclear Renewables Fossil Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Destatis 30
31 ENERGIEWENDE 4: IMPACT ON RETAIL PRICES US FIXED LINE VS. MOBILE PRICES ($/MIN) GERMAN FIT VS. RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICES (EUR/MWH) Mobile Feed-in tariff <10kW Land line Res. power price Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg L.P., BSW Solar, Eurostat, Federal Communications Commission 31
32 ENERGIEWENDE 4: IMPACT ON RETAIL PRICES US FIXED LINE VS. MOBILE PRICES ($/MIN) GERMAN FIT VS. RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICES (EUR/MWH) Mobile Feed-in tariff <10kW Land line Res. power price Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg L.P., BSW Solar, Eurostat, Federal Communications Commission 32
33 ENERGY EFFICIENCY LED LIGHT BULBS Picture Credit: Philips 33
34 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 34
35 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 35
36 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 36
37 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 37
38 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 38
39 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 39
40 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 40
41 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, TWh 300 AUD trillion GDP Historical Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 41
42 PUBLIC MARKETS OPEN FOR BUSINESS Source: Tesla 42
43 GLOBAL ANNUAL EV SALES 2011 & ,000,000 85,000,000 (4% CAGR) EVs 715,000 1,650,000 Hybrids (52% CAGR) 52, ,000 (99% CAGR) Total Note: Numbers are rounded. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 43
44 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE ($/KWH) 10,000 EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN 43% SINCE , H H ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Consumer LiB experience curve Historic consumer LiB prices BNEF EV LiB cost forecast Historic EV battery pack prices Cumulative prod. capacity (MWh) Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars. Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 44
45 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE ($/KWH) 10,000 EV LI-ION BATTERYPACK PRICES HAVE FALLEN 43% SINCE , H H Cost-competitiveness (by total cost of ownership) Tesla's Gigafactory ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Consumer LiB experience curve Historic consumer LiB prices BNEF EV LiB cost forecast Historic EV battery pack prices Cumulative prod. capacity (MWh) Note: Battery pack prices in 2010 dollars. Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 45
46 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q Q ($BN) Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q Four quarter running average Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 46
47 RENEWABLE ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Reasons for drop : 80% - price reductions 20% - volume reductions Note: Excludes large-scale hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 47
48 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS (GW) Installations forecast to grow 37% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 48
49 GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW) FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES Forecast Nuclear Forecast 264 Marine Oil Gas Coal Solar Wind Biomass & waste Geotherm Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 49
50 DIVESTMENT MOVEMENT Source: GoFossilFree.org 50
51 DIVESTMENT MOVEMENT IN PERSPECTIVE Total size of divested portfolios (to September 2014) - $50 billion Total free float of 106 NEX constituents (September 2014) - $350 billion Global market cap of quoted oil and gas companies - $5 trillion Oil & Gas Coal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Arabella Advisors; GoFossilFree.org 51
52 FINANCIAL INNOVATION New owners Yield Cos Peer-to- Peer Solar bonds Forex hedging ESCO finance Prepaid solar Blended finance Green Bonds Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 52
![THE ORACLE OF CLEAN ENERGY We ve poured billions and billions and billions of dollars [into renewables].](/docs-images/96/127078465/images/53-1.jpg "And we re going to keep doing that as far as the eye can see.")
53 THE ORACLE OF CLEAN ENERGY We ve poured billions and billions and billions of dollars [into renewables]. And we re going to keep doing that as far as the eye can see. Warren Buffett CEO Berkshire Hathaway Picture: Bloomberg 53
54 GREEN BONDS WILL RAISE AS MUCH MONEY IN 2014 AS FROM Green bonds raised, ($bn) $39.4 $17.5 (est) $14.3 $0.2 $1.4 $1.8 $0.5 $0.9 $6.8 $3.7 $5.9 $ Note: full-year estimate as of 22 July Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 54
55 CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRY COVERAGE AND Asian countries, including 25 states/ provinces in India & China 26 Latin American & Caribbean nations 19 sub- Saharan Africa nations Nations studied for Climatescope Nations added for
56 POWER CAPACITY & GROWTH, CLIMATESCOPE VS OECD (CUM. CAPACITY, GW, ANNUAL % CHANGE) 3,500 12% 3,000 10% 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 8% 6% 4% 500 2% Climatescope OECD Climatescope % OECD % 0% Source: Climatescope 56
57 CLIMATESCOPE VS. OECD CLEAN ENERGY INSTALLED CAPACITY (GW) AND GROWTH (%), % % % % % Climatescope OECD Climatescope % OECD % 0% Note: Large hydro not included in this definition of clean energy Source: Climatescope
58 INDUSTRIAL POWER PRICES 2013, CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRIES ($/MWH) Source: Climatescope
59 RETAIL POWER PRICES, AFRICA, SOLAR VS KEROSENE ($/WEEK) Kerosene $4 per week Solar PV $1 per week Note: Illustrative figures for cost of 2 lamps plus mobile phone charging, Kenya, 2012 Picture Credit: SolarSister 59
60 NEW CLEAN ENERGY POLICIES COMING INTO FORCE BY YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT, CLIMATESCOPE NATIONS Source: Climatescope
61 ENERGY SUBSIDIES COMPARED (2012) Fossil Fuels $544 bn (consumer subsidies only) + $88 bn producer subsidies (G20 only) + $83 bn defence (Gulf only) + Impact on health, economic volatility + Climate Clean energy ~$100 bn Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IEA; ODI; Rand Corporation 61
62 PHASE CHANGE Phase Change (n): A change in a feature of a physical system that results in a discrete transition of that system to another state. Source: Wikipedia Commons; The Free Dictionary 62
63 GERMAN HOURLY GENERATION PROFILE (GW) JULY 2012 JULY Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 63
64 SMALL SOLAR SYSTEM PRICES IN GERMANY AND CALIFORNIA TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($/W) CALIFORNIA PREMIUM TO GERMANY Average California residential 127% 111% 103% 78% 4 2 Average sub- 10kW German 0 Q Q Q Q % 29% 51% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BSW Solar, California Solar Initiative 64
65 NEXT WAVE OF PHASE-CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES? FLEXIBLE GAS PEAKERS q Efficiency of CCGT q Rapid ramp up & load following q Within emission limits q Enables more intermittent generation ABB Hybrid HVDC Circuit Breaker q Mechanical/solid state hybrid q Interrupts 1GW high voltage in 5ms q 100-year-old problem q Enables Internet of HVDC USB 3.1 q 100W power via USB cable q No more power cables q Power TVs, lights, printers, from your PC q Enables low-v homes CFCL MICRO-CHP FUEL CELL q Heat and power from natural gas q Combined 85% efficiency q Silent, resilient q Enables urban DG Source: GE, ABB, USB 3.1 Group; BlueGen / Ceramic Fuel Cells Michael Liebreich Oxford, 28 November 65
66 PHASE CHANGE NEWSPAPER REVENUE ($M) 1997 Invention of the smartphone 2006 Founding of Twitter Total US newspaper ad revenue ($m) 60,000 50,000 40, Invention of the Internet 1992 Invention of the browser 30,000 20,000 10, years Source: Bloomberg L.P. Bloomberg New Energy Finance 66
67 Thanks! MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Michael Liebreich Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system
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