CSP Today Markets. Reports Series 2015

Transcription

1 B U S I N E S S I N TE L L I G E N C E CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015 Plan your CSP business strategy with CSP Today s market potential analysis, project pipeline assessment and forecast to Choose among the following countries: India, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE and the USA BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE BUSINESS S BUSINES GENCE INTELLI CSP Today Markets Report 2015 Morocco kets CSP Today Mar dia In Report 2015 lysis, ket potential ana y in India: mar business strateg ent and forecast to 2025 Plan your CSP assessm project pipeline Plan your CSP business strategy in Morocco: market potential analysis, project pipeline assessment and forecast to 2025 BUSINESS kets CSP Today Mar Africa th u So Report 2015 S BUSINES CSP Today Markets Report 2015 UAE Plan your CSP business strategy in the UAE: market potential analysis, project pipeline assessment and forecast to 2025, ential analysis Critical analysis of Markets Scorecard and ca: market pot y in South Afri 5 Forecast to 2025 g the Morocco s CSP market cast to 202 business strateg ssment and foreand Understandin Plan your CSP ysteminsight into key drivers and barriers, Assess the potential for CSP asse ecard ecos line Scor CSP l kets pipe loca Mar project deployment and find out projected ysis of key local CSP regulatory framework and to 2025 Forecast rs, drivers and barrie Insight into key framework and CSP regulatory a to help you form project pipeline strategy. clear business tial for CSP Assess the poten find out projected deployment and ity within the installed CSP capac to position your next ten years of the curve. business ahead ecard and Markets Scor of Forecast to 2025 Critical analysis CSP market for CSP s the potential South Africa s projected barriers, Asses drivers and Insight into key framework and CSP regulatory a to help you form project pipeline strategy. clear business Find out who the includingproject pipeline to help you form a stakeholders are, clear business strategy. rs and major government playe opers, s as well as devel financing bodie onent suppliers. EPCs and comp g the Understandin ystem local CSP ecos find out deployment and ity within the installed CSP capac to position your next ten years of the curve. business ahead CSP Today Markets Report 2015 Saudi Ar abia Plan your CSP business strategy in Saudi Arabia : market potential analys project pipeline assess is, ment and forecast to 2025 INTELLIGENCE GENCE INTELLI Critical anal ket India s CSP mar INTELLIGENC E Critical analysis of the UAE s CSP market Insight into key drivers and barriers, CSP regulatory framework and project pipeline to help you form a clear business strategy. key local Find out who the including stakeholders are, rs and major government playe opers, s as well as devel financing bodie onent suppliers. EPCs and comp installed CSP capacity within the next ten years to position your business ahead of the curve. Markets Scorecard and Forecast to 2025 Assess the potential for CSP deployment and find out projected installed CSP capacity within the next ten years to position your business ahead of the curve. BUSINESS INTELLIGENC E Plan your CSP Today Markets Report 2015 USA CSP business strategy Understanding the in the USA: market poten tial analysis, project pipeline assess local CSP ecosystem Critical analysis of ment and forecast to 2025 Markets Scorecard and Find out who the key local Saudi Arabia s CSP market Understanding the Forecast to 2025 stakeholders are, including Insight into key drivers local CSP ecosystem and barriers, Assess government players and major CSP regulatory framewo rk and financing bodies as well as developers, project pipeline to help you form a EPCs and component suppliers. clear business strategy. the potential for CSP deployment and find out projected installed CSP capacity within the next ten years to position your business ahead of the curve. Find out who the key local stakeholders are, including government players and major financing bodies as well as developers, EPCs and component suppliers. Understanding the local CSP ecosystem Find out who the key local Critical analysis of the Markets Scorecard and stakeholders are, including U.S. CSP market Forecast to 2025 government players and major Insight into key drivers and barriers, Assess the potential for financing bodies as well as developers, CSP regulatory framewo CSP rk and deployment and find out EPCs and component suppliers.project projected pipeline to help you form a installed CSP capacity clear business strategy. within the next ten years to position your business ahead of the curve. Understanding the local CSP ecosystem Find out who the key local stakeholders are, including government players and major financing bodies as well as developers, EPCs and component suppliers. Critical analysis of the CSP markets of your choice Markets Scorecard and Forecast to 2025 Understanding the local CSP ecosystem Insight into key drivers and barriers, CSP regulatory frameworks and project pipelines to help you form a clear business strategy. Assess the potential for CSP deployment and find out projected installed CSP capacity within the next ten years to position your business ahead of the curve. Find out who the key local stakeholders are, including government players and major financing bodies as well as developers, EPCs and component suppliers.

2 Industry overview INDUSTRY OVERVIEW With a global installed capacity of 4,085 MW as of September 2014, and an additional 235 MW in the commissioning pipeline, CSP is becoming a more established technology and the whole sector is at an inflexion point. Given the gradual saturation of established markets, key industry players are faced with the challenge of efficiently managing their limited resources in order to expand into the most profitable emerging CSP markets. By analyzing the CSP regulatory framework and critically assessing the macroeconomic situation of each country, CSP Today has produced a series of six reports, each detailing the growth potential of the technology in the country and the projected installed capacity to 2025 under three different scenarios (optimistic, conservative and pessimistic). By harnessing the abundance of market information available, each report generates strategic knowledge that provides unprecedented clarity in evaluating the current and future potential of the CSP market analyzed. The thorough evaluation model enables CSP Today to make a qualified assessment of key market opportunities and pitfalls, thereby facilitating cross-market comparisons. This will assist you in making informed decisions and developing a strong business strategy in order to profitably position your business in the most promising emerging markets and drive the growth of your CSP activities. Previous reports purchasers include: CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

3 Key questions addressed in each report KEY REASONS TO BUY What are the drivers of and barriers to the development of CSP in the country? What is the current status of the CSP industry in the country analyzed? Who are the main players in the CSP market? How strong is the local supply and value chain? How ready is the country for CSP? And what is the potential of its project pipeline? How much installed CSP capacity can you expect by 2025? Key reasons to buy these reports Gain in depth analysis and insight into the CSP markets of your interest. Choose among India, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE and the USA. Policies and incentives: Navigate the CSP regulatory framework and uncover how much support is granted to CSP by the local government. Detailed project pipelines: Understand what trends are driving the CSP market analyzed with pipeline s breakdowns by project status and technology and detailed project data. Supply chain: For each country, find a list of key players and potential local partners including government agencies, developers, EPCs and component suppliers. CSP Today s Markets Scorecard 2015: Identify the best opportunities for investors and understand how and why a country is ready for CSP or not. CSP Today s Markets Forecast 2015: Discover the projected global installed capacity up to 2025 and analyze the growth potential of the specific CSP market in three scenarios (optimistic, conservative and pessimistic). CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

4 Who needs these reports The CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015 is primarily aimed at business development roles within suppliers and developers looking to expand their businesses into new markets. WHO NEEDS THESE REPORTS Suppliers Make informed decisions and develop a strong business strategy to position your business into the most profitable emerging CSP markets. Assess your competitive landscape in the markets of choice: see who the main component suppliers are and identify potential openings in the supply chain. Estimate your projected demand by assessing how much installed CSP capacity you can expect up to Developers Ensure your business plan targets the most valuable CSP markets. Discover what market opportunities and pitfalls other developers see in the markets you are entering. Learn how local content requirements may affect your development strategy. Find out which raw materials and components can be locally sourced and explore the list of your potential local partners. CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

5 Local expertise LOCAL EXPERTISE The CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015 benefits from the contribution of key industry experts with on-the-ground experience in the markets analyzed. In-depth interviews have been conducted with top developers including Abengoa, BrightSource Energy, Eskom, GDF Suez, Masdar, Reliance Power, SolarReserve and Sun & Life. A number of experts from the most influential global organizations also contributed to the quality of these reports, including the Asian Development Bank, the CSP Alliance, NREL, the Solar Electric Power Association and the World Bank. Swapnil Kumthekar, Business Development Solar at Reliance Power, provided extremely valuable insight into the report on CSP in India. Jonathan Walters, Senior Advisor at Castalia Strategy, and previously a Director at the World Bank, peer reviewed the chapter on Morocco, whilst Alexandre Allegue, General Manager at Sun & Life, contributed to the quality of the report on Saudi Arabia. CSP Today is also grateful to Daniel Schwab, Regional Director for Southern Africa, BrightSource Energy for detailed feedback on the South African market, as well as Andrew Wang, Director of Development, SolarReserve and Mary Grikas, Vice President of Communications, SolarReserve, who acted as peer reviewers for the USA report. CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

6 CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015 CHOOSE A COUNTRY Choose the report that best responds to your business needs: Click here to see the Table of Content of this report Click here to see the Table of Content of this report Click here to see the Table of Content of this report Click here to see the Table of Content of this report Click here to see the Table of Content of this report Click here to see the Table of Content of this report CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

7 Table of contents India Contents List of Figures... 8 List of Tables... 8 Executive summary Country overview Electricity market Electricity demand CSP market in India CSP regulatory framework Renewable Purchase Obligations and Renewable Energy Certificates The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission Phase I of JNNSM Delays and extensions to Phase I Outside of JNNSM State-level initiatives ADB-SECI innovation program CSP Research and Development center Local content requirements CSP project pipeline Local CSP ecosystem Key government agencies Independent Power Producers and utilities Permitting agencies and feasibility study providers Local consultants and R&D bodies Financing organizations Developers and EPC Firms Local component suppliers Raw materials availability CSP Today Market Scorecard and Forecast CSP Today Markets Scorecard Introduction to the Scorecard The potential for CSP in India India compared to other key CSP markets CSP Today Markets Forecast Introduction to the Markets Forecast Global market forecast Forecast CSP installed capacity in India APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in the India INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

8 APPENDIX B: Status definitions APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology APPENDIX D: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology Acronyms References List of Figures Figure 1: Breakdown of installed capacity by fuel type Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in India Figure 3: Market structure diagram Figure 4: Power Sales Agreement contract structure in India Figure 5: JNNSM Phase I CSP tariff trends Figure 6: Breakdown of CSP capacity by status (MW) Figure 7: Breakdown of CSP capacity by technology (MW) Figure 8: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Figure 9: India Markets Scorecard Overview Figure 10: Markets Scorecard Comparison of key CSP markets Figure 11: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Global market Figure 12: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 India List of Tables Table 1: Country overview Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in India Table 3: Anticipated India power supply position for the year Table 4: Solar power capacity requirement by Table 5: Projects under Phase I of the JNNSM Table 6: RPO targets in Gujarat Table 7: Minimum yearly capacity targets in Karnataka Table 8: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Table 9: Key government agencies in India Table 10: Key Independent Water and Power Producers and utilities in India Table 11: Key permitting agencies and feasibility study providers in India Table 12: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in India Table 13: Key financing organizations in India Table 14: Developers and EPCs in India Table 15: Key local component suppliers in India Table 16: Key local raw material suppliers in India Table 17: India Markets Scorecard Scores Table 18: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Global market Table 19: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) India INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

9 Table of contents Morocco Contents List of Figures... 8 List of Tables... 8 Executive summary Country overview Electricity market Electricity demand Key players in the Moroccan electricity market CSP market in Morocco CSP regulatory framework Moroccan Solar Plan The Ouarzazate Solar Complex (Noor I-IV) Local content requirements CSP project pipeline Local CSP ecosystem Key government agencies Utilities and Independent Power Producers Permitting agencies and feasibility study providers Local consultants and R&D bodies Financing organizations Developers and EPC firms Local component supply Raw materials availability CSP Today Markets Scorecard and Forecast CSP Today Markets Scorecard Introduction to the Scorecard The potential for CSP in Morocco Morocco compared to other key CSP markets CSP Today Markets Forecast Introduction to the Markets Forecast Global market forecast Forecast CSP installed capacity in Morocco APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in Morocco APPENDIX B: Status definitions APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology APPENDIX D: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology Acronyms References INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

10 List of Figures Figure 1: Breakdown of installed capacity by fuel type Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in Morocco Figure 3: Market structure diagram Figure 4: Double PPA structure under the MSP Figure 5: Breakdown of CSP capacity by status (MW) Figure 6: Breakdown of CSP capacity by technology (MW) Figure 7: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Figure 8: Morocco Markets Scorecard Overview Figure 9: Markets Scorecard Comparison of key CSP markets Figure 10: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Global market Figure 11: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Morocco List of Tables Table 1: Country overview Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in Morocco Table 3: Technical specifications for Noor II and Noor III Table 4: Prequalified bidders for Noor II and III Table 5: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Table 6: Key government agencies in Morocco Table 7: Key utilities and IPPs in Morocco Table 8: Key permitting agencies and feasibility study providers in Morocco Table 9: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in Morocco Table 10: Key financing organizations in Morocco Table 11: Key developers and EPCs in Morocco Table 12: Key Local component suppliers in Morocco Table 13: Key raw materials suppliers in Morocco Table 14: Morocco Markets Scorecard Scores Table 15: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Global market Table 16: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Morocco INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

11 Table of contents Saudi Arabia Contents List of Figures... 8 List of Tables... 8 Executive summary Country overview Electricity market Grid transmission Electricity demand CSP market in Saudi Arabia CSP regulatory framework: the Competitive Procurement Process Procurement rounds Requirements Delays to the CPP CSP project pipeline Local CSP ecosystem Key government agencies Independent Water and Power Producers Permitting agencies Local consultants and R&D bodies Financing organizations Utilities and transmission grid operators Developers, EPCs and engineering companies Local component supply Raw material availability CSP Today Market Scorecard and Forecast CSP Today Markets Scorecard Introduction to the Scorecard The potential for CSP in Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia compared to other key CSP markets CSP Today Markets Forecast Introduction to the Markets Forecast Global market forecast Forecast CSP installed capacity in Saudi Arabia APPENDIX A: Status definitions APPENDIX B: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology Acronyms References INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

12 List of Figures Figure 1: Installed capacity by fuel type in Saudi Arabia Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in Saudi Arabia Figure 3: Market structure diagram Figure 4: CPP targets by technology Figure 5: Saudi Arabia Markets Scorecard Overview Figure 6: Markets Scorecard Comparison of key CSP markets Figure 7: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Global market Figure 8: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Saudi Arabia List of Tables Table 1: Country overview Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in Saudi Arabia Table 3: Technology-specific targets for Round 1 and Table 4: Stage II key requirements Table 5: Stage III key requirements Table 6: Local cost factors for CSP Parabolic Trough Table 7: Local cost factors for CSP Power Tower Table 8: Ad-hoc requirements Table 9: CSP project pipeline in Saudi Arabia Table 10: Key government agencies in Saudi Arabia Table 11: Key Independent Water and Power Producers in Saudi Arabia Table 12: Key permitting agencies in Saudi Arabia Table 13: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in Saudi Arabia Table 14: Key financing organizations in Saudi Arabia Table 15: Key utilities and transmission grid operators in Saudi Arabia Table 16: Key developers, EPCs and engineering companies in Saudi Arabia Table 17: Local component suppliers in Saudi Arabia Table 18: Raw material suppliers Table 19: Saudi Arabia Markets Scorecard Scores Table 20: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Global market Table 21: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Saudi Arabia INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

13 Table of contents South Africa Contents List of Figures... 8 List of Tables... 8 Executive summary Country overview Electricity market Grid transmission Electricity demand CSP market in South Africa CSP regulatory framework Integrated Resource Plan for electricity (IRP) Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP) Tariff scheme Local content requirements Bidding Windows under the REIPPPP Past Windows Window Window CSP project pipeline Local CSP ecosystem Key government agencies Permitting agencies Local consultants and R&D bodies Financing organizations Developers and EPC firms Local component supply Pipes Pumps Tracking devices Receivers Power blocks Heat exchangers Raw materials availability CSP Today Markets Scorecard and Forecast CSP Today Markets Scorecard Introduction to the Scorecard The potential for CSP in South Africa South Africa compared to other key CSP markets CSP Today Markets Forecast Introduction to the Markets Forecast Global market forecast Forecast CSP installed capacity in South Africa INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

14 APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in South Africa APPENDIX B: Status definitions APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology APPENDIX D: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology Acronyms References List of Figures Figure 1: Breakdown of installed capacity by fuel type Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in South Africa Figure 3: Market structure diagram Figure 4: Major projects of the Transmission Development Plan Figure 5: Expected electricity demand trajectories to Figure 6: South Africa s morning and evening demand peak profiles (summer and winter) Figure 7: REIPPPP allocation (MW) per technology Figure 8: First stage qualification criteria for selection in the second stage Figure 9: Daily electricity demand and TOD payment outline Figure 10: Window 4 allocation (MW) by technology Figure 11: Breakdown of CSP capacity by status (MW) Figure 12: Breakdown of CSP capacity by technology (MW) Figure 13: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Figure 14: Typical project structure in the South African context Figure 15: South Africa Markets Scorecard Overview Figure 16: Markets Scorecard Comparison of key CSP markets Figure 17: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Global market Figure 18: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 South Africa List of Tables Table 1: Country overview Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in South Africa Table 3: Expected electricity demand to 2030 under different scenarios Table 4: Technology options arising from IRP 2010 and the Update Base Case in Table 5: TOD payment breakdown Table 6: Bid submissions in Window Table 7: Window 4 key dates Table 8: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Table 9: Key government agencies in South Africa Table 10: Key permitting agencies in South Africa Table 11: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in South Africa Table 12: Key financing organizations in South Africa Table 13: Key developers and EPCs in South Africa Table 14: South Africa Markets Scorecard Scores Table 15: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Global market Table 16: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) South Africa INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

15 Table of contents the UAE Contents List of Figures... 8 List of Tables... 8 Executive summary Country overview Electricity market Grid transmission Electricity demand CSP market in the UAE CSP regulatory framework The Emirate of Dubai The Emirate of Abu Dhabi Local content requirements CSP project pipeline Local CSP ecosystem Key government agencies Independent Water and Power Producers Local utilities and transmission grid operators Permitting agencies Local consultants and R&D bodies Financial organizations Developers, EPCs and engineering companies Local component supply Raw materials availability CSP Today Markets Scorecard and Forecast CSP Today Markets Scorecard Introduction to the Scorecard The potential for CSP in the UAE The UAE compared to other key CSP markets CSP Today Markets Forecast Introduction to the Markets Forecast Global market forecast Forecast CSP installed capacity in the UAE APPENDIX A: Status definitions APPENDIX B: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology Acronyms References INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

16 List of Figures Figure 1: Breakdown of installed capacity by fuel type Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in the UAE Figure 3: Market structure diagram Figure 4: UAE Markets Scorecard Overview Figure 5: Markets Scorecard Comparison of key CSP markets Figure 6: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Global market Figure 7: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 UAE List of Tables Table 1: Country overview Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in the UAE Table 3: CSP project pipeline in the UAE Table 4: Key government agencies in the UAE Table 5: Independent Water and Power Producers in the UAE Table 6: Local utilities and transmission grid operators in the UAE Table 7: Key permitting agencies in the UAE Table 8: Local consultants and R&D bodies in the UAE Table 9: Key financing institutions and banks in the UAE Table 10: Key developers and EPCs in the UAE Table 11: Key local component suppliers Table 12: Raw materials suppliers in the UAE Table 13: UAE Markets Scorecard Scores Table 14: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Global market Table 15: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) UAE INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

17 Table of contents the USA Contents List of Figures... 8 List of Tables... 8 Executive summary Country overview Electricity market Structure of the electricity market Regulation Generation Grid transmission Distribution Electricity demand CSP market in the USA Renewable energy Current status of the CSP industry CSP regulatory framework Renewable energy initiatives Financial incentives Loan Guarantees SunShot initiative FOCUS program Other federal-level initiatives State-level incentives Local content requirements CSP project pipeline Local CSP ecosystem Key government agencies Utilities Permitting agencies Local consultants and R&D bodies Financing organizations Developers and EPC firms Local component supply CSP Today Markets Scorecard and Forecast CSP Today Markets Scorecard Introduction to the Scorecard The potential for CSP in the USA The USA compared to other key CSP markets CSP Today Markets Forecast INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

18 Introduction to the Markets Forecast Global market forecast Forecast CSP installed capacity in the USA APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in the USA APPENDIX B: Status definitions APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology APPENDIX D: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology Acronyms References List of Figures Figure 1: Breakdown of electricity net generation by energy source Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in the United States Figure 3: US national power grid Figure 4: NERC regional entities Figure 5: Market structure diagram Figure 6: California s summer daily electricity demand curve Figure 7: US States with RPS or RPGs Figure 8: Breakdown of CSP capacity by status (MW) Figure 9: Breakdown of CSP capacity by technology (MW) Figure 10: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Figure 11: USA Markets Scorecard Overview Figure 12: Markets Scorecard Comparison of key CSP markets Figure 13: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Global market Figure 14: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 USA List of Tables Table 1: Country overview Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in the USA Table 3: New capacity installed in the USA in 2013 by fuel type Table 4: Overview of other main federal policy initiatives in the USA Table 5: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) Table 6: Key government agencies in the USA Table 7: Utilities and Independent Power Producers in the USA Table 8: Key permitting agencies in the USA Table 9: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in the USA Table 10: Key financial organizations in the USA Table 11: Key developers and EPC firms in the USA Table 12: Key local suppliers in the USA Table 13: USA Markets Scorecard Scores Table 14: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Global market Table 15: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) USA INDIA MOROCCO SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UAE USA CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

19 Methodology METHODOLOGY CSP Today s Markets Reports Series 2015 responds to the most critical needs of the CSP industry, representing six months of research (primary and secondary) and culminating in a series of six reports containing high-quality data and analysis. Barriers and drivers: In-depth interviews with 25+ key industry experts and developers active in the market analyzed. Project pipelines: Making use of the CSP Today Global Tracker, all project data is industry validated and accurate as of August 2014, providing detailed information of projects announced, planned, in development, construction and operation. Local CSP ecosystem: Building upon CSP Today s proprietary data and the knowledge of local authors and peer reviewers, the stakeholder map in each market has been outlined and reviewed by on-the-ground players active in the local CSP market. CSP Today s Markets Scorecard 2015: Based on the score assigned to nine key indicators, the Scorecard analyses strengths and weaknesses of the market and evaluates its current potential and readiness for CSP. The key indicators taken into account in the Scorecard are: Technical market potential Renewable energy support Ease of finance National CSP targets Permitting Industry readiness Political and economic stability Energy sector Project pipeline Evaluate the technical readiness and potential of the country for CSP. Measure the presence of incentives to support the development of a renewable energy market. Examine the bankability of renewable energy projects in the country, access to credit, and ease of doing business, as well as GDP growth and inflation. Evaluate the CSP capacity targets announced by the governments and the likelihood of meeting these targets. Determine the ease of obtaining various permits for CSP projects. Assess the competence of the local industry and CSP supply chain. Measure the political and economic soundness of the country. Explore the level of dependence on fossil fuels and the need for additional capacities to determine how CSP can fit within the country s energy mix. Consider the current status of CSP projects in the country to assess the level of CSP activity in the market. CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

20 Local Local Global Global CSP Today s Forecast 2015: The Forecast presents an overview of the future deployment of CSP in the global market as well as in the specific market analyzed leading up to Each market forecast includes three different scenarios: optimistic, conservative and pessimistic. Using up-to-date data from the CSP Today Global Tracker and insights from stakeholders on the expected installed CSP capacities, the forecast aims to enable an assessment of the longevity of the markets and the associated potential return on investments. METHODOLOGY The approach used identifies parameters that affect each market in a specific way and parameters that have the same influence globally. These parameters are then grouped and categorized in five factors, namely Direct Global, Indirect Global, Direct Local, Indirect Local and Decision Points (in direct competition with CSP). Direct factor Indirect factor Decision Points Technology maturity Market expansion Environmental measures International agreements Global energy demand Global economic stability Unconventional fossil fuel reserves PV price Conventional power costs Ease of financing Market saturation Political stability National CSP targets Local energy demand Permitting Incentives Grid coverage Population/economic growth High cost of energy Presence of supporting industries and local expertise Water availability DNI CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

21 Operational capacity (MW) The below extract has been taken from the Markets Scorecard and Forecast chapter of the CSP Today Markets Report 2015 USA. The contents of the chapter examine the country s readiness for CSP and the growth potential to 2025 both globally and in the USA specifically. Extract from the Markets Report 2015 USA Global market forecast REPORT EXTRACT Figure 1: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 Global market Historical Optimistic Conservative Pessimistic Table 1: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) Global market Year Optimistic Conservative Pessimistic ,565 3,565 3, ,895 4,562 4, ,253 4,906 4, ,535 7,744 6, ,078 11,284 8,243 REPORT EXTRACT CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

22 Optimistic scenario The optimistic scenario for the global forecast is largely influenced by the availability of incentives in key CSP markets, a parameter that is assigned the highest value (9). Such incentives include feed-in-tariffs (which helped drive CSP growth in Spain and more recently in South Africa), as well as capital subsidies, investment tax credits, and public competitive bidding. Local energy demand, which scored 3.5, is also considered to be a direct contributor to CSP deployment decisions. Countries such as Morocco, India and South Africa are spending billions of dollars on fuel imports every year in order to meet burgeoning demand. It is no coincidence that all three countries have set ambitious solar energy targets and are constructing their first CSP plants. While an increasing demand for energy can galvanize government interest in CSP, national CSP targets motivate the global industry as they prove political commitment to CSP. The positive impact of such targets has led to assigning this parameter a value of 4. Overall, the optimistic scenario forecasts that global CSP capacity will increase from 3,565 MW in 2013 to 5,253 MW by In the longer term, this capacity is projected to rise to 9,535 MW by 2020, and 17,078 MW by Conservative scenario The conservative scenario acknowledges the fact that CSP technologies are progressing fast, and the encouraging DNI available in many CSP markets. Indeed, these parameters (technology maturity and DNI) score 3 and 5 respectively. Nevertheless, the scenario is negatively influenced by the fact that water scarcity is a common issue in high-dni locations. Consequently, the use of dry cooling systems is required, which in turn leads to efficiency losses. Therefore, water availability contributes with a value of 0. Conventional power cost is also regarded as a challenging aspect to the global deployment of CSP, given that fossil fuel prices are still cheaper than those of CSP, and subsidized by the government in some countries. This explains the negative value of -2.5 assigned to this parameter. Weighing in the above parameters, the conservative scenario forecasts that global installed CSP capacity will increase from 3,565 MW in 2013 to 4,906 by In the longer term, this capacity is projected to rise to 7,744 MW by 2020, and 11,284 MW by Pessimistic scenario In addition to water availability and conventional power cost, the pessimistic scenario considers grid coverage issues in CSP markets. Indeed, CSP plants can take years to connect to the grid as they are usually far from load centers, and therefore need larger evacuation capacities and extended transmission lines. South Africa s Transmission Development Plan, for example, foresees the installation of an additional 12,733 km of lines by 2022 (Eskom, 2013d). The cost implications of these required expansions can also be extremely high. For instance, the high-voltage connection for the Shams 1 CSP plant in the UAE cost more than US$ 25.5 million (Al-Ali, REPORT EXTRACT REPORT EXTRACT CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

23 2012). These challenges in grid coverage are reflected in its corresponding value of -1. Finally, in light of the increasing production of unconventional fossil fuels in the global market, and the decreasing price of PV, CSP will need to achieve substantial cost reductions in order to become as competitive. In fact, unconventional fossil fuel reserves and PV price are considered as decision points in global CSP growth, scoring negative values of -1 and -3.5 respectively. As a result, the pessimistic scenario forecasts that global installed CSP capacity will increase from 3,565 MW in 2013 to 4,518 MW by In the longer term, this capacity is projected to rise to 6,674 MW by 2020 and 8,243 MW by REPORT EXTRACT REPORT EXTRACT CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

24 About CSP Today ABOUT CSP TODAY CSP Today is the reference point for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) professionals and a cornerstone for communications within the industry. We have been the leading provider in this global market for the past eight years. We provide industry-focused news, events and online up-to-the minute data, analyses, reports, updates and information for the CSP industry. CSP Today's objective is to be the hub of the community, enabling dialogue throughout the industry. We aim to drive CSP forwards and provide clients with the most accurate and timely project and plant intelligence, based on research of the highest quality. Everyday CSP Today experts are on the phone with EPCs, developers, suppliers, as well as financiers, utilities and government bodies in order to provide you with the latest, verified global industry data and information. India Pages: 92 Price: 775 CHOOSE YOUR REPORT Morocco Pages: 83 Price: 775 Saudi Arabia Pages: 86 Price: 775 South Africa Pages: 82 Price: 775 UAE Pages: 77 Price: 775 USA Pages: 90 Price: 775 FIND OUT MORE ABOUT THE REPORTS AND OUR SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES Aleksandra Sledzinska Sales Executive Phone: +44 (0) US toll free: ex: asledzinska@csptoday.com THREE WAYS TO ORDER YOUR REPORT NOW asledzinska@csptoday.com +44 (0) CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

25 Thought leadership: THOUGHT LEADERSHIP CSP Today s Business Intelligence Portfolio CSP Today Chile Market and Technology Insight 2014 The next few years are likely to be defining ones for the future development of CSP in Chile and the opportunities are beginning to develop. Plan your business strategy with this exclusive report, which offers you: Critical analysis of Chile s CSP market: Get insight into government policies and incentives and find out who the main players are, including developers, EPCs and financing firms. Market forecast to 2024: Design your long-term strategy with the report s market forecast to 2024, including a concise look at Chile s CSP development opportunities. Optimal project solutions for CSP in Chile: Access an in-depth assessment of cost (CAPEX, OPEX and optimal PPA) and performance (energy yield output) for both parabolic trough and tower technologies. Localized techno-economic analysis: Obtain industry validated cost information and localized technoeconomic analysis in order to plan the financing of your CSP project. CSP Today Global Tracker The CSP Today Global Tracker provides easy access to current CSP market, policy, project and supplier data. This is the industry s first live and interactive map, providing data on: CSP plants at every single stage across the globe: Announced, planning, development, construction, commissioned and in operation. In-depth CSP plant data: Access all plants details including technology choice, technical specification, stakeholders, suppliers, incentives and finance. Country by Country policy: Understand each CSP market, with data on market size, policies and incentives, energy market structure, as well as up to date information on EPCs and developers operating in the market. Global CSP suppliers list: The most comprehensive component supplier list serving every part of a CSP plant from heliostats to pumps and valves. CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES

26 CSP Today Quarterly Update CSP Today s Quarterly Update provides a comprehensive analysis of the industry utilizing data from the CSP Today Global Tracker. It acts as an easily digestible guide to recent industry developments in order to enhance your understanding of the global CSP picture. THOUGHT LEADERSHIP With a new issue every quarter, this tool gives you: Insight into the latest announcements, project updates and investments, with CSP Today analysis into their importance and impact on the industry. Comparisons across 30 CSP markets, which allow you to see project pipelines, technology selections, companies involved and megawatt capacities. A breakdown of key opportunities in each of the major markets, detailing how the latest developments may affect your business strategy. Updated predictions on the hottest markets and what your business can expect in the following quarters. CSP Today Technology Reports 2014 Parabolic Trough Report 2014: Cost, Performance and Thermal Storage and Tower Report 2014: Cost, Performance and Thermal Storage. Strategically plan your commercial trajectory and optimize profitability in the increasingly internationalized solar tower market. Through industry-validated cost information, localized techno-economic analysis and inter-market benchmarking, these reports bring unprecedented clarity on Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower technology across eight global markets, enabling you to separate the fact from the hype. Critical market specific cost data: Receive the most up-to-date, industry validated cost data breakdowns from CAPEX to OPEX in defined optimal Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower plants across eight markets (Chile, India, Morocco, Spain, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, UAE and USA). Realistic LCOE models: Determine the LCOE of Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower technology by market, benchmark emerging CSP markets against the traditional key markets and identify the longitudinal trend with market specific LCOE forecasts. Energy yield and performance output data and analysis: Identify and benchmark the market specific energy yield and performance characteristics, including solar field thermal output, online parasitics, net energy, total operating hours, solar-to-electricity efficiency and water consumption. The evolution of Thermal Storage (TES): Use the global project pipelines to understand how and to what extent TES is being increasingly incorporated into Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower plants, and gain insight into the latest R&D initiatives in TES tipped to reduce cost and optimize performance. Market share of Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower technology: Strategize your investment and gauge your profit by understanding the long-term market share, growth and viability of these technologies, including market-by-market pipelines and key comparisons with other CSP technologies. CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES