International Collaboration - Volume Coordination Stephan Crafford

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1 International Collaboration - Volume Coordination Stephan Crafford Industry Affairs Manager South African Subtropical Growers Ass. Malaysia July 27

2 Production Areas

3 Avocado Industry 12 ha Season: March to October Production: 85 to 1 ton p.a. Export orientated: Europe 45% Local: Fresh 4% Processing: Oil and Guacamole 15% Average production growth: ±2% pa Major competitors: Spain, Peru, Kenya, Israel

4 SA Avocado Exports kg cartons (')

5 SA Avocado Exports - Projected kg cartons (million)

6 Mango Industry 75 ha Season: December to March/April Production: 85 to 1 ton p.a. Less export orientated than avocado industry 65% of exports to EU, 2% ME, 15% Far East Processing: Juice, dried, achar Little to no growth in production Competitors: Peru, Brazil, Ecuador

7 SA Mango Exports 4kg cartons

8 Litchi Industry 3357 ha Season: December to February Export orientated Processing: Juice Domestic market easily over supplied mid season Major competitor: Madagascar Major cultivars: Mauritius, McLean s Red

9 SA Litchi Exports kg cartons /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 Sea Air

Macadamia Nut Industry Fastest growing subtropical industry 5% of trees 1-5 years 26 Registered nurseries 14 ha RSA currently world s 3 rd largest macadamia

10 Macadamia Nut Industry Fastest growing subtropical industry 5% of trees 1-5 years 26 Registered nurseries 14 ha RSA currently world s 3 rd largest macadamia producer 15 ton NIS (24) vs. 17 ton NIS (26) Export 96% of total production SA currently accounts for 15% of world macadamia supply Major competitors: Hawaii, Australia

11 SA Macadamia Nut Production KERNEL(tons) ACTUAL PROD. Poly. (ACTUAL PROD.)

12 Challenges Cooperation to grow the market New EU member states Exchange rate Market price Consitent quality Cooperation to manage volumes Access new markets Technical research new cultivars Nothing is certain in value chain macs Land reform Volume variation

13 Challenges continue Competition Climate Increase in production costs Slow growth in EU consumption Increase in world production Value adding Changing market requirements Training Protect domestic market Changing consumer needs

14 Many of these challenges can be overcome by Volume Coordination

15 World Production Mango production has undergone a substantial increase of 15% in the past 5 years. Mango exports has an avg. annual growth rate of 8% export growth of > 3%. Mango exports from South America still to grow for at least another 3-5 years.

16 Mango Exports - EU - SA & Peru 8, 7, 6, Cartons 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Shipping week

Southern Hemisphere Experience Erratic supplies 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Mango exports to EU Brazilian Peaks Peruvian Peaks 46 47 48 49 5 51 52 53 123 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14

17 Southern Hemisphere Experience Erratic supplies Mango exports to EU Brazilian Peaks Peruvian Peaks ft Containers (5 cartons/con) Shipping week SA Peru Brazil Ecuador

18 Avg Annual Mango Price in EU Long Term EU Mango Imported Volumes versus Price tonnes Euros/ 4kg box Year

19 Avg. Weekly Mango Price in EU Not profitable < 4euro/carton EUR/Carton

20 AVOCADOS International Collaboration Case Study

21 SA Avocado Exports Cartons

SA Avocado Prices - 2 2 15 Fuerte 1 5 714 715 716 717 718 719 72 721

739 74 741-5 -1 2 15 1 5 714 715 716 717 718 719 72 721 739 74 741

22 SA Avocado Prices Fuerte Hass -5-1

23 The Message in the SA Avocado Industry Volume Management Growers lost money over a number of years due to inability to balance supply & demand Volume management is of vital importance and will stabilize prices and enable us to export more at better prices Sharing of information with various countries & exporters is the first step towards a total volume management process

24 Cartons SA Avocado Exports Weeks

25 SA Avocado Prices Fuerte Hass

26 SA Export Volumes

27 What do we need to do? Long term overview historic (1 years) Medium term forecast next 5 years Seasonal prospects (Estimates for year) Weekly updates (what has been shipped)

6 5 4 3 2 1 Long Term Overview 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986

28 Long Term Overview Export Volume (Tons)

29 Medium Term Forecast AVOCADO - World production estimate HASS st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Country (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) RSA Israel Spain Kenya Chile Peru Argentina Mexico TOTAL FUERTE st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Country (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) (' tons) RSA Israel Spain Kenya Chile... Peru... Argentina... Mexico... TOTAL

30 Seasonal Prospects Reed Nab Ar d Pink Hass Fue Ett

31 Consolidated Avocado Information Total EU Avocado supply (updated 1/7/25) Bars to left of arrow represent actual shipments from South Africa, but also include estimates from other origins. Bars to right of arrow represent estimates 4 kg Cartons (') Week on market Israel green Israel Hass Spain Green Spain Hass Mexico Green Mexico Hass Kenya Green Kenya Hass Argentina Green Argentina Hass Peru Green Peru Hass Chile Hass RSA Green RSA Hass

33 EU Avocado Supply Bars to left of arrow represent actual shipments from South Africa, but also include estimates from other origins. Bars to right of arrow represent estimates 4 kg Cartons (') Week on market Israel green Israel Hass Spain Green Spain Hass Mexico Green Mexico Hass Kenya Green Kenya Hass Argentina Green Argentina Hass Peru Green Peru Hass Chile Hass RSA Green RSA Hass USA Hass Brazil Green Brazil Hass

34 EU Avocado Supply 26 vs kg cartons (') Bars to left of arrow represent actual shipments from South Africa, but also include estimates from other origins. Bars to right of arrow represent estimates Week on market 26 27

35 EU Greenskin & Hass Supply Bars to left of arrow represent actual shipments from South Africa, but also include estimates from other origins. Bars to right of arrow represent estimates 4 kg Cartons (') Week on market Greenskins Hass

36 Sharing Information Needs to be accurate Timely All major role-players Communicated Commitment

37 Thank You

World supply and demand of tilapia

World supply and demand of tilapia by Helga Josupeit FAO Rome, October 2010 World tilapia production World tilapia production has been booming during the last decade, with output doubling from 830000 tonnes