Do You Need an Enemy to Have a Foreign Policy? Foreign policy in one presentabon

Transcription

1 Do You Need an Enemy to Have a Foreign Policy? Foreign policy in one presentabon

2 Cold War ( ) I. US vs. USSR (Soviet Union), et al II. Capitalism vs. Communism III. Freedom vs. Tyranny IV. Duck and cover under desks because we are all going to die in a nuclear war.

3 V. Actual showdowns and wars: Korean War ( ), Space Race (Sputnik Moon landing 1969), Berlin Wall ( ), Vietnam War ( ), Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 1972 Olympic Gold Medal basketball game between USSR and USA (the commies cheated!), 1980 Olympic hockey semi- finals USA vs. USSR ( Do you believe in miracles? ) etc.

4 Post Cold War (1991- present) I. Cold War ends due to budget problems for the Eastern bloc countries. Who knew prinbng currency no one else in the world would accept would be a bad thing? II. Yeah, peace in our Bme!!!

5 Terrorism: Road to 9/11 Part I 1990s A Nunn- Lugar bill is passed. It pays for the dismantling of Soviet nuclear, chemical and biological weapons B World Trade Center days afer Bill Clinton took office, the WTC is bombed. Six die in the aiack, over 1000 are injured. All seven men involved are arrested and are currently serving life sentences afer convicbons in C. Oklahoma City- - The Alfred P. Murrah building was bombed in April 1995, killing 168. Two Americans, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols were convicted of the crime.

6 D. July 27, Centennial Park in Atlanta. A bomb went off during the Olympics. 2 were killed, over 100 were injured. Eric Rudolph was eventually arrested and convicted. E al Qaeda blows up US embassies on Kenya and Tanzania. President Clinton fires 75 Tomahawk missiles into the Sudan and Afghanistan. Clinton signs a presidenbal direcbve to assassinate Osama bin Laden. F. The FAA warns in 1998 that al- Qaeda could "seek to hijack a commercial jet and slam it into a U.S. landmark."

7 G A report prepared for the NaBonal Intelligence Council, an affiliate of the CIA, warned that terrorists associated with bin Laden might hijack an airplane and crash it into the Pentagon, White House or CIA headquarters. The report recounts well- known case studies of similar plots, including a 1995 plan by al Qaeda operabves to hijack and crash a dozen U.S. airliners in the South Pacific and pilot a light aircraf into the CIA building.

8 H. Plots foiled by CIA during the Clinton administrabon 1. kill the Pope 2. Hijack and blow up 12 US jets simultaneously 3. Blow up the FBI, United NaBons buildings 4. Blow up the Israeli embassy in DC 5. Blow up LAX and Boston airports 6. Blow up the US embassy in Albania

9 Part II 2000s A. Oct. 12, al Qaeda aiack on the USS Cole. 17 were killed and 39 were wounded. B. Pres. Clinton asks Richard Clarke to create a comprehensive plan to take out al Qaeda. 1. arrest known al Qaeda members 2. freeze financial assets 3. give US aid to the Philippines, Yemen and Uzbekistan to help them fight al Qaeda 4. Put special forces in Afghanistan 5. Arm and train anb- Taliban forces 6. Create a plan for the invasion and occupabon of Afghanistan

10 C. TransiBon- - Jan Sandy Berger, Clinton s nabonal security advisor, warns Condoleezza Rice about al Qaeda. Rice denies this happens. 2. Rice asks Clarke to stay on as head of anb- terrorism 3. The Bush team thought that the Clintonites were obsessed with bin Laden and terrorism. 4. The Bush team felt Iraq was the greater threat

11 D. New AdministraBon Feb. 15, Hart- Rudman Commission Report warns of a catastrophic domesbc aiack. It asks for the creabon of a Dept. of Homeland Security that would combine the Customs Service, Border Patrol, FBI, etc. The Report stated that terrorism is the primary threat against this country this century.

12 2. Vice President Richard Cheney will chair a task force on counter- terrorism. It never meets. 3. April Clarke tries to sell his plan to aiack al Qaeda to Bush, Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. There is no expressed interest.

13 4. May 1, the CIA told the White House of a report that "a group presently in the United States" was planning a terrorist operabon. Weeks later, on June 22, the daily brief reported that al Qaeda strikes could be "imminent," although intelligence suggested the Bme frame was flexible

14 May 11: Stephen Wallace, an American Airlines technician nobces two Middle Eastern men taking pictures and videos of the main security checkpoint at Boston s Logan Airport. He reported the behavior to airport officials who did nothing. One of the men is presumed to be Mohamed Aia, on of the 9/11 hijackers.

15 5. The daily brief of June 29 read OperaBves connected to Bin Laden expected the planned near- term aiacks to have "dramabc consequences," including major casualbes. 6. On July 1, the brief stated that the operabon had been delayed, but "will occur soon." Some of the briefs again reminded Mr. Bush that the aiack Bming was flexible, and that, despite any perceived delay, the planned assault was on track.

16 7. June 28 NaBonal Security Adviser Rice receives an intelligence summary warning a significant al Qaeda aiack in the near future is "highly likely. 8. July Phoenix FBI agent Kenneth Williams sends electronic memo to FBI headquarters, urging invesbgabon of possible terrorists connected to bin Laden enrolled in American flight schools.

17 9. mid July- - CIA director George Tenet is franbc about a possible aiack. A Sept. 4 meebng with Clarke and Bush is scheduled. a. The FAA issues a warning to airlines: terrorists are planning and training for hijackings. b. CIA disrupts aiacks in Paris, Rome and Turkey. 10. Aug Nunn- Lugar bill funding is cut

18 11. Aug The PresidenBal Daily Brief Btled Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US is prepared for the president by the CIA. Nevertheless, FBI informabon since that Bme indicates paierns of suspicious acbvity in this country consistent with preparabons for hijackings or other types of aiacks, including recent surveillance of federal buildings in New York.

19 From Ron Suskind s The One Percent Doctrine Bush listened to the briefing, then told the CIA briefer: All right. You ve covered your ass, now.

20 12. Aug INS arrests Zacharias Moussaoui- - an al Qaeda flight school student. The report stated he was, the type of person who could fly something into the World Trade Center. 13. August- - acbng FBI director Thomas Pickard asks Aiorney General John Ashcrof for $58 million for counterterrorism. Sept. 10, he is turned down.

21 14. The FBI alerts the FAA about the arrest of Moussaoui. The FAA does not alert the airlines 15. Sept Congress approves $600 million for anb- terrorism. The money comes from the the missile defense program that is supported by the President. Bush threatens to veto the bill a. Aiorney General Ashcrof lists the Top 7 prioribes of the FBI. Terrorism is not on the list.

22 E. Sept. 11, Four planes are hijacked. Three are used as weapons. The World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon are struck. The fourth plane is brought down by the passengers. Nearly 3000 people died. 2. Press conference at the White House at noon: Q: Had there been any warnings that the President knew of? A: Press Secretary Ari Fleischer: No warnings.

23 F. Postscript: On May 16, 2002, Condoleezza Rice held a press briefing; she insisted that no one could have envisioned the events of Sept. 11. I don t think anybody could have predicted that these people would try to use an airplane as a missile, a hijacked airplane as a missile.

24 2. Invasion of Afghanistan: (Oct pres) There are about 10,000 US soldiers in Afghanistan currently with a planned gradual draw down of troops lasbng unbl Dec Over 2000 Americans have died in this conflict (OperaBon Enduring Freedom).

25 3. Iraq (Mar Dec 2011): Currently around 3,000 US soldiers in Iraq, around 4500 Americans have died in the conflict (OperaBon Iraqi Freedom)

26 4. OperaBon Neptune Spear: (May 2, 2011) US Navy SEALS raided a compound in Abboiabad, Pakistan, killing Osama bin Laden. No US casualbes.

27 Other threats to the USA I. Iran: Why? Iran is playing with nuclear power plants and you know what that means. Why not? The president of Iran is not in charge of Iran. A council of 12 religious leaders led by Ayatollah Khamenei is in charge; annual defense budget is $10 billion, lowest per capita in the region.

28 II. China Why? Communist country, over a billion people, nuclear power, America s largest trading partner, holds a lot of American debt, producing millions of college grads each year. Why not? Can t wreck our country financially without wrecking theirs, one- child policy leaves China with an aging populabon that will be a terrible financial burden to deal with, Chinese colleges are not good.

29 III. Oil from our enemies! Why? We buy too much oil from our enemies in the Middle East Why not? 36% of our oil needs come from the USA. There are 4x the number of oil wells working today than 7 years ago. 22% comes from Canada. Next is Mexico. Venezuela provides 11% of our oil needs. This represents more than half of Venezuela s total exports. Middle Eastern oil around 10%.

30 IV. Al- Qaeda Why? Didn t we just do this about 20 slides ago? Why not? Bin Laden is dead, dozens of al- Qaeda leaders have been killed since Jan 2009 (most via air strikes in Pakistan), the organizabon is broken financially, hard to airact new followers, becoming very unpopular in the Middle East

31 V. North Korea Why? Nuclear power, 4 th largest army in the world, dubious leadership Why not? Only spends $5-8 billion on military, severe shortages in food, fuel and infrastructure and technology, etc; quesbonable leadership.

32 VI. ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) or ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) or Daesh: The group emerged in 2003 following the invasion of Iraq by the US and its allies. The goal is to claim territories and turn it into a Sunni Islamic state (a caliphate). Most of the territory under its control is in Iraq or Syria. However it claims pockets of control in a dozen other areas in the Middle East and Northern Africa.

33 ISIS follows a disbncbve form of Islam whose beliefs about the path to the Day of Judgment maiers to its strategy. ISIS is more like a literalist cult. It is the equivalent of a ChrisBan country living under the strict rules of the Book of LeviBcus. It follows a literal interpretabon of the 7 th century law and punishment. An extreme group of Sunnis

34 To ISIS, most Muslims are apostates all Shi a, all Muslim governments who elevate man- made law over Sharia governments that send diplomats to non- Muslim countries, countries that hold elecbons or sent delegates to the United NaBons. For example Al Qaeda is half- acbng. Iran is a puppet of Israel ISIS is skilled in social media. It has a magazine called Dabiq that is published in many languages including English

35 Dabiq explains how the rapes, slavery and violent killings are part of religious ritual and devobon. Lots of violent images Dabiq has 11 printed issues so far. Each is in full color and is pages long. In the Words of the Enemy is a regular feature. All Westerners are referred to as crusaders

36 ISIS is apocalypbc: The armies of Rome (mix of Iranian and US- led forces) will mass to meet the armies of Islam in Northern Syria; and that Islam s final showdown with an anb- Messiah will occur in Jerusalem afer a period of renewed Islamic conquest.

37 The final baile will be in Dabiq (the namesake for its magazine) At Dabiq, Jesus will return to Earth, spear the anb- Messiah, and lead the Muslims to victory By jabbing and provoking the West (Paris aiacks, etc), ISIS is aiempbng to start the End Times. The biggest proponent of an American invasion is the ISIS itself.

38 ISIS has severe money issues. Half of its money comes from robbing Iraqi banks (a one- Bme source). Half of its revenue goes to paying its soldiers. Its tax base is destroyed as wealthy people are fleeing. Those who stay are staying out of fear. ISIS suffers from a lack of professionals like doctors. It wants to return to the gold standard. It sells oil illegally also.

39 Most of its equipment is older Russian and American stuff lef behind from past conflicts. This is hard to replace. Source of quotes: Wood, Graeme. What ISIS Really Wants The AtlanBc. March 2015.

40 The CIA esbmates between 20,000-50,000 fighters and assets totaling $2 billion. Other sources believe there could be as many as 200,000 fighters. ISIS controls nearly 13,000 square miles of Iraq and Syria and potenbally as many as 7 million people.

41 VII. Embassy aiacks The US has embassies in most countries in the world. Since 9/11, these have become targets. A Karachi, Pakistan: 10 dead, 51 injured B Uzbekistan: 2 killed, 9 injured C Saudi Arabia: 9 killed D Syria: 1 dead, several wounded E Karachi, Pakistan: 4 killed

42 F Athens, Greece: anb- tank grenade used; no casualbes G Serbia: 300 rioters broke in, damaged property, no casualbes H Yemen: 10 killed in car bomb aiack I Istanbul, Turkey: 3 killed J Peshawar, Pakistan: 8 killed

43 K Cairo, Benghazi: aiacks in Libya kill 4 including Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens.

44 VIII. Us domesbc terrorism A. Sept. 2001: anthrax is mailed in leiers to several news media offices and two democrabc senators. Five are killed and 17 are infected. B. School/ mass shoobngs: Columbine High School (1999): 12 students, 1 teacher, 21 wounded. Virginia Tech University (2007): 32 killed, 17 wounded. Northern Illinois University (2008): 5 killed 21 injured. Sandy Hook (2012): 26 killed. Aurora (2012) 12 killed, 58 wounded.

45 C. April 2013: two pressure cooker bombs explode near the finish line of the Boston Marathon. 3 people are killed and over 260 are injured. Two brothers, Tamerlan and Djokhar Tsarnaev are accused of the crime. Their family came to the US in Both graduated from high school and aiended college in Massachuseis. Djokhar became a US cibzen in He was convicted in April, 2015.