Shipbuilding Market Overview
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1 Shipbuilding Market Overview Cargotec Capital Markets Day, Helsinki, 17 th November Steve Gordon, Clarkson Research Services Limited (CRSL) The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of this data does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services.
2 Agenda 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook 4. Summary
3 Three very different decades! Market Position: Clarksea Index Between the end of May 2008 and mid-april 2009, the Index fell from almost $50,000/day to a low of $7,350/day & 2010 proved better than expected and low interest rates helped. Sentiment now weaker - as of 11 th November 2011, $11,142 / day '000 $/day ClarkSea Index The Clarksea Index is an average w eighted index of earnings across the major sectors of tankers, bulkers, containers and gas Average 1980s - $9,461/day Avergae 1990s - $11,924/day Average 2000s - $21,720/day The Clarksea Index (tankers, bulkers,, containers, gas) Source: Clarkson Research Source: Clarkson Research, April
4 Cycle Position November 2011 LNG LPG Offshore Container 1,700 teu Container 3,500 teu Handy Handymax Panamax Capesize Clean Products Aframax Suezmax VLCC Quarterly Upturn but lots of supply to come Tankers depressed Gas & Offshore better Rates have continued to decline since the summer This chart shows average earnings today for the ship type, as a % of the average earnings during the last 10 years -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% % deviation from 10 year trend
5 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% The World Economy - Sea trade cycles generally follow cycles in world GNP but not precisely. World Seaborne Trade & GDP Trade Grow th linear trendline World GDP Grow th % Crude Oil 21% Other Dry 27% Seaborne Trade 2011, m.tonnes Oil Products 9% Gas 3% Minor Bulks 13% Major Bulks 25% : trade almost doubled to 8.2bn tonnes that is over one tonne for every person on the planet -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Source: Clarkson Research Services. IMF Source: Clarkson Research Services
6 World Seaborne Trade Billion Tonnes 10.0 Major Bulk 9.0 Container Trade Oil Products 8.0 Other Global Seaborne Trade Minor Bulk Crude Oil Gas (e) Source: Clarkson Research, April 2011 Iron Ore Container LNG Coal Trade Growth Cruise Cars Oil Products Baux./Alum. LPG Grain Minor Bulk Crude Oil Other Phos. Rock -1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 2.9% 5.3% 4.9% 4.3% 3.9% 2.7% 6.5% 5.7% 8.2% 7.9% -3.7% % Grow th Per -5.0% 0.0% A 5.0% 10.0% Source: Clarkson Research, April % average
7 Seaborne Trade Scenarios Seaborne Trade Outlook Billion Tonnes Chinese Imports World Less China 7% scenario 4% scenario 3% scenario 1% scenario Period % p.a % % % % % % We expect trade to grow by around 5% in 2011 but there are lots of risks given economic developments / uncertainty and there is a lag on trade data. For planning purposes, 4% growth in trade over the next decade does not seem unreasonable Source: Clarkson Research, April
8 Age Profile 11% of fleet above 25 years 100 Million GT Deliveries Relatively few vessels built in the 1980s so limited replacement requirement
9 World Fleet Million World Fleet Development World Fleet Development % Growth Source: Clarkson Research, April (f) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Growth Rates: This year the fleet moved past the billion GT mark Fleet growth has moved up to 7-8% in recent years and this is also forecast for 2011 and This is roughly double long term trade growth and more than the 5% trade growth expected this year. Graph in GT
10 Agenda 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook 4. Summary
11 World Shipbuilding & Scenario 100 Market Peak 2010 or 2011? Surplus Capacity Million GT Deliveries The last shipbuilding peak was in 1975 when output reached 36 million GT 35 year cycle
12 Shipbuilding Output by Country & CGT 60 Million CGT Deliveries Europe Japan S. Korea China Others
13 Shipbuilding Waves of Competition Other USA China Korea Japan % total ships launched Britain Scandinavia Europe Source: Maritime Economics (2009)
14 China takes the lead.. Global Shipbuilding Share - Delivery 70% % DWT Deliveries China Europe Japan South Korea 60% Others Global Shipbuilding Share (2011 YTD Delivery in Dwt) Others Europe 4% 2% Japan 20% 50% 40% 30% 20% China 41% 10% 0% YTD S. Korea 33% Source: Clarkson Research Services
15 South Korean success in high value orders 60% 50% Global Shipbuilding Share - Contracting % CGT Deliveries China Europe Japan South Korea Others Global Shipbuilding Share (2011 YTD contracting in CGT) Others Eur ope Japan 7% 6% 5% 40% 30% 20% China 32% 10% 0% YTD S. Korea 50% Source: Clarkson Research Services
16 World Shipbuilding by Country 2010 Million CGT Output China S. Korea Japan Germany Italy Philippines Norway Turkey Spain Netherlands Others yards yards 223 yards What is CGT? CGT is the Gross Tonnage (GT) of the ship weighted to reflect its work content per GT. For example the weight for a containership might be 1.0 and the weight for a big tanker 0.25) Source: Clarkson Research
17 World Shipbuilding by Country 2011 YTD Million CGT Output in China S. Korea Japan Germany Italy Norway Turkey Spain Netherlands Others yards yards 31 yards What is CGT? CGT is the Gross Tonnage (GT) of the ship weighted to reflect its work content per GT. For example the weight for a containership might be 1.0 and the weight for a big tanker 0.25) Source: Clarkson Research
18 World Shipbuilding Capacity CGT World Shipbuilding Production by Country COUNTRY Tankers Bulkers Containers Gas her Total Output M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT M CGT China S. Korea Japan Germany Italy Philippines Norway Turkey Spain Netherlands All Others Total Indicates market leader for each ship type
19 World Shipbuilding Capacity 2011 YTD - CGT World Shipbuilding Production by Country COUNTRY Tanker Bulk Carrier Containership Gas Others Total China P.R South Korea Japan Philippines Italy Germany Taiwan Vietnam Norway Turkey All Others Total Indicates market leader for each ship type
20 Top Builders Output CGT COUNTRY BUILDER Bulkers Container Gas Other Tankers Total Cont % tot 1 South Korea Daewoo 217 1, ,138 47% 2 South Korea Hyundai H.I , ,968 44% 3 South Korea Samsung H.I ,614 37% 4 South Korea Hyundai Samho ,284 32% 5 China P.R. Jiangnan Changxing % 6Taiwan CSBC % 7 South Korea Hanjin H.I % 8 China P.R. Jiangsu New YZJ % 9 Japan Mitsubishi H.I % 10 Philippines HHIC-Phil. Inc % 11 China P.R. Guangzhou Wenchon % 12 Japan Koyo Dock K.K % 13 China P.R. Dalian Shipbuilding ,131 15% 14 South Korea Sungdong S.B ,020 15% 15 Japan Naikai S.B % 16 China P.R. Jiangsu Yangzijiang % 17 Japan Imabari S.B ,131 9% 18 China P.R. Shanghai S.Y % 19 Japan I.H.I % 20 China P.R. Zhejiang S.B %
21 Top Builders 2011 YTD 2011 YTD Output CGT COUNTRY BUILDER Bulk Carrier Containership Gas Others Tanker Total Cont % tot 1 South Korea Hyundai H.I , % 2 South Korea Samsung H.I. - 1, % 3 South Korea Daewoo % 4 South Korea Hyundai Samho % 5 South Korea Hyundai Mipo % 6 South Korea STX Shipbuild % 7 China P.R. Dalian Shipbuilding % 8 South Korea Sungdong S.B % 9 Japan Imabari S.B % 10 China P.R. Shanghai Waigaoqiao % 11 South Korea SPP Shipbuilding % 12 Japan Oshima S.B. Co % 13 China P.R. Jiangsu New YZJ % 14 Japan Mitsubishi H.I % 15 China P.R. Dayang S.B % 16 Japan Universal S.B % 17 China P.R. New Times S.B % 18 Japan Mitsui SB % 19 Japan I.H.I % 20 China P.R. Hudong Zhonghua %
22 Non-Delivery Trends 50% 40% 30% % Difference of Forecast vs. Actual Deliveries into the Global Fleet Slippage and Cancellation by Shiptype, 2011 TOTAL 20% 10% BULKERS Unit : Dwt 0% CONTAINERS Cancellation Slippage -10% -20% TANKERS -30% -40% -50% Source: Clarkson Research, October 2011 GAS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% In recent years around a quarter to a third of expected deliveries at the start of the year have not delivered.
23 Investor Behaviour Major No. of Vessels Value $ billion Investors * * Investment Trends This Year Greece STEADY. 4% Norway UP BY. 55% Denmark UP BY. 2222% Germany UP BY. 35% France DOWN BY.. -63% Italy DOWN BY.. -59% Netherlands DOWN BY.. -64% Turkey DOWN BY.. -49% Russia DOWN BY.. -37% Sweden UP BY. 20% United Kingdom DOWN BY.. -75% Monaco UP BY. 28% Other Europe DOWN BY.. -81% TOTAL EUROPE 2,731 1, UP BY. 11% China P.R DOWN BY.. -64% Singapore DOWN BY.. -13% Hong Kong UP BY. 13% Japan DOWN BY.. -25% South Korea DOWN BY.. -41% Taiwan DOWN BY.. -50% Malaysia DOWN BY.. -86% India DOWN BY.. -80% Other Asia DOWN BY.. -13% TOTAL ASIA 1,824 1, DOWN BY.. -48% Israel UP BY. 49% Saudi Arabia UP BY. 76% U.A.E DOWN BY.. -66% Other Mid. East DOWN BY.. -24% TOTAL MID. EAST UP BY. 8% United States UP BY. 200% Brazil UP BY. 355% Canada UP BY. 98% Other DOWN BY.. -91% TOTAL OTHER UP BY. 135% GLOBAL TOTAL 5,113 2,924 1,099 2, STEADY. 1%
24 Chinese Owned Fleet & Contracts m. GT Chinese Owned Fleet & Contracts China P.R. Ow ned Fleet (LHS) China P.R. Ow ned Contracts (RHS) Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Source: Clarkson Research Services m. GT Strong Chinese owned contracts before the financial crisis leads to strong growth rate after financial crisis. About 9% (in GT) yoy growth rate pre-financial crisis. Over 20% (in GT) yoy growth rate post-financial crisis. Global fleet growth rate consist at about 7% yoy during the same period.
25 Agenda 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook 4. Summary
26 Massive Investment In New Ships 1. Between 2003 and 2008 the industry ordered over $800 billion of new ships. 50% of the orders were placed in 2007/8 when prices were at a peak 2. Majority of investment related to standard designs and technology 3. In 2011, 40% of investment has been offshore related and 15% gas. 4. Today, the contract value of the marine orderbook is over $300 billion and offshore is nearly $150 billion. Bill $ Orders Others Container LPG LNG Bulk Tankers New Cape $MM New Cape $MM Source: Clarkson Research Services Ltd
27 Shipbuilding Output by Type & CGT Million CGT Deliveries Others Containership Bulkercarrier Tanker
28 2010 Activity & 2011 Potential 2010 Others, 374, 19% Tankers, 301, 15% Gas, 56, 3% Others, 328, 28% 2011 Tankers, 153, 13% Gas, 82, 7% Container, 125, 6% Bulk, 325, 27% Bulk, 1117, 57% Container, 289, 25% 1,973 1,177 (f)
29 2011. Winners & Losers Tanker 2011 versus 2010 Offshore Gas Container We expect the relative share of orders by sector to change in We expected Offshore, Container and Gas to do better. We expect bulkers and tankers to be down year on year. Ferry Overall volumes expected to be slightly down on Bulk -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
30 Newbuilding Requirement Scenario Relatively low ordering expected in the short term. Surplus capacity may put pressure on pricing. Gradual pick up later in the decade but with relatively more gas, container, ferry, Ro Ro, PCC and Offshore. Bulkers remains a volume market but not at the same levels as the boom. Counter cyclical ordering possible. New designs and technology provide marketing opportunities.
31 Offshore Oil Production & Forecast Following a decade of stagnation, offshore oil is expected to grow strongly. Step change in oil price expectation and offshore oil is getting deeper Projection based on over 178 oil fields currently under development 1,125 potential development oil fields and 1,038 gas fields Million BPD Caspian Black Sea Asia Pacific M East & ISC Nth America Growth West Africa Sth America NW Europe Stagnation Growth forecast? Offshore oil production and forecast
32 Offshore Discoveries Getting Deeper Water Depth (M) 3,500 3,000 Brazilian Pre-Salt Discoveries 2,500 2,000 Akal & Cantarell, Mexico 6.7 bn bbls combined Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Fields 1,500 1, Safaniya, S.Arabia 3.5 bn bbls Shengli, China 3.8 bn bbls
33 Offshore & Marine Orderbook- Value by Type Offshore Marine Mobile Offshore Drilling 46% Others 20.1% Tankers 12.8% Gas 5.0% Survey 3% Supply 6% AHTS 7% Logistics 3% Mobile Production 20% Construct & Platform 13.9% Container 19.9% $137 bn $291 bn Bulk 42.2%
34 Offshore Contracting Forecast Significant Requirement Project Intelligence Methodology Contracting Forecast Long Term Project Intelligence Forecast is based on the projected construction and startup of future offshore fields. The contracting forecast is based on the units required for each of the fields in the projection start-up. No of Contracts Placed Forecast Support Production and Logistics Survey and Development
35 Agenda 1. Market Position, Seaborne Trade, World Fleet 2. Regional Shipbuilding Capacity 3. Ship Type Investment & Outlook 4. Summary
36 Conclusions We have entered a market trough following a decade of exceptional earnings. The big three volume sectors tankers, bulkers, containers all face difficult issues. World trade averages under 4% growth but there is currently shipbuilding capacity to grow the fleet at 7%. Suggests prices may ease back and a return towards boom ordering levels is unlikely. Shipbuilding output is at a record high and marks the peak of a 35 year cycle. China took the shipbuilding crown last year but is having a tough 2011 in contracting terms. In 2011, Gas, Container and Offshore have been more active. Securing finance at the moment is difficult. We expect dry bulk to remain a volume newbuild market but for Gas, Ro Ro, Ferry and Offshore to do relatively better over the coming decade It is a buyers market and yards are being far more flexible with new designs. Solutions that reduce fuel consumption and have a green angle are very attractive. Lower newbuild prices may encourage counter cyclical ordering.
37 Clarksons Research Disclaimer The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of this data does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services. The statistical and graphical information contained under the heading is drawn from the Clarkson Research Services Limited ("CRSL") database and other sources. CRSL has advised that: (i) some information in CRSL's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; and (ii) the information in the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the information in CRSL's database; and (iii) whilst CRSL has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the statistical and graphical information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; and (iv) CRSL, its agents, officers and employees do not accept liability for any loss suffered in consequence of reliance on such information or in any other manner; and (v) the provision of such information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (vi) the provision of such information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by CRSL; and (vii) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate 18/11/2011
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