Public Opinion and Foreign Policy in the United States, China, India, Australia, and South Korea, 2006

Transcription

1 ICPSR 4650 Public Opinion and Foreign Policy in the United States, China, India, Australia, and South Korea, 2006 Chicago Council on Global Affairs Asia Society East Asia Institute (EAI) User Guide Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research P.O. Box 1248 Ann Arbor, Michigan

2 Terms of Use The terms of use for this study can be found at:

3 Field Report American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy July 2006 Conducted for, The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations Submitted to: Christopher Whitney, Executive Director for Studies July 24, Willow Road, Suite 102 Menlo Park, CA P: F:

4 Knowledge Networks Deliverable Authorization Printed Name Signature Date Title J. Michael Dennis July 24, 2006 VP, Government and Academic Research

5 Table of Contents AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY JULY INTRODUCTION... 4 TABLE 1. SURVEY COMPLETION RATE... 4 DATA FILE DELIVERABLES AND DESCRIPTIONS... 4 TABLE 2. DELIVERABLE DESCRIPTION... 5 TABLE 3: SUPPLEMENTAL VARIABLES... 5 KEY PERSONNEL... 7 KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS METHODOLOGY... 8 INTRODUCTION... 8 PANEL RECRUITMENT METHODOLOGY... 8 SURVEY ADMINISTRATION SURVEY SAMPLING FROM PANEL Panel Sample Design Weights Sample Design of the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations American Public Opinion Survey Preparation of Final Weights for the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations American Public Opinion Survey APPENDIX A: QUESTIONNAIRE Page 3

6 American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy July 2006 Introduction Knowledge Networks conducted a study of American public opinion and foreign policy attitudes for The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) in July The survey was fielded on June 23rd 2006 to a total of 1,570 panel members age eighteen years of age or older who represented a general population sample. The interview completion goal was to collect a minimum of 1,100 completed interviews. Due to the length of the survey interview, forty-six minutes median time, respondents were offered a ten-dollar incentive for completing the survey. An reminder was sent to nonresponders after three days, one week, and two weeks to improve response. CCFR provided Knowledge Networks with the survey instrument. In conjunction with CCFR, Knowledge Networks revised the instrument so that it met the design requirements of the MSN WebTV platform. A pretest survey was conducted to determine the survey length and verify all survey functionality worked correctly. Table 1 below displays the field period and completion rate of the survey. Table 1. Survey Completion Rate Field Start Date Field End Date Number Fielded Number Completed Completion Rate 6/23/2006 7/9/2006 1,570 1,227 78% Data File Deliverables and Descriptions Four items have been have been delivered to CCFR. 1) A fully labeled SPSS file including Knowledge Network s standard profile variables, which are owned by Knowledge Networks and licensed to CCFR for analysis and reporting. 2) A topline report, which contains all the frequencies of survey questions and the comparison to available year 2004 data. 3) This field report that documents the study and methodology and contains the final version of the questionnaire. 4) A set of four cross tabulation tables using banner specifications designed by CCFR. Page 4

7 Delivery Date File Type Table 2. Deliverable Description File Name File Size N Records Inclusion of Standard Background Demographics 7/17/06 SPSS CCFR_July_2006_Client.sav 592KB N=1227 Yes 7/20/06 WORD CCFR Topline US.doc 3192KB NA NA 7/17/06 WORD CCFR_July_2006_Banner1.doc 3185KB NA NA 7/17/06 WORD CCFR_July_2006_Banner2.doc 3196KB NA NA 7/17/06 WORD CCFR_July_2006_Banner3.doc 3336KB NA NA 7/17/06 WORD CCFR_July_2006_Banner4.doc 3466KB NA NA Table 3 below shows the name and description of each of the supplemental variables included in the SPSS dataset. Additional variables were created to match those used in the cross tabulation tables specified by CCFR. Table 3: Supplemental Variables Variable Name serial weight dt_start tm_start dt_end tm_end duration durcat ppgender ppage ppagecat ppagect4 ppeduc ppeducat ppethm pphhhead pphhsize pprent ppdualin ppincimp Variable Description Case Identification Number Final Post-Stratification Weights Date interview started Time interview started Date interview ended Time interview ended Duration of interview Duration of interview (categorical) Gender Age Age 7 categories Age 4 categories Education (highest degree received) Education categorical Race/Ethnicity Household head Household size Ownership status of living quarters Dual Income HH HH Income (profile and imputed) Page 5

8 Variable Name Variable Description ppnet HH Internet status ppmarit Marital status pphouse Housing type ppt01 Total number of HH members age 1 or younger ppt25 Total number of HH members age 2 to 5 ppt612 Total number of HH members age 6 to 12 ppt1317 Total number of HH members age 13 to 17 ppt18ov Total number of HH members age 18 or older ppwork Current Employment Status ppstaten State of residence ppreg4 Region 4 - based on State of residence ppreg9 Region 9 - based on State of residence ppmsacat Metropolitan Statistical Area party7 Political party affiliation - 7 categories party3 Political party affiliation - 3 categories Page 6

9 Key Personnel Key personnel on the American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy July 2006 study: Mike Dennis Vice President and Managing Director, Client Service. M. Dennis is based in the Menlo Park office of Knowledge Networks. Phone number: (650) Vicki Pineau Vice President of Statistics. V. Huggins is based in the Menlo Park office of Knowledge Networks. Phone number: (650) Stefan Subias Senior Research Analyst, Custom Research. S. Subias is based in the Menlo Park office of Knowledge Networks. Phone number: (650) Page 7

10 Knowledge Networks Methodology Introduction Knowledge Networks has recruited the first online research panel that is designed to be representative of the entire U.S. population. The panel is representative because it is recruited using high quality probability sampling techniques, and is not limited to current Web users or computer owners. Knowledge Networks selects households using random digit dialing (RDD) and provides selected households with free hardware and Internet access. This allows surveys to be administered using a Web browser and enables the inclusion of multimedia content. Once a person is recruited to the panel, they can be contacted by (instead of by phone or mail). This permits surveys to be fielded very quickly and economically. In addition, this approach reduces the burden placed on respondents, since notification is less obtrusive than telephone calls, and most respondents find answering Web questionnaires to be more interesting and engaging than being questioned by a telephone interviewer. Panel Recruitment Methodology Knowledge Networks panel recruitment methodology uses the quality standards established by the best Random Digit Dialing (RDD) surveys conducted for the Federal Government. Knowledge Networks utilizes list-assisted RDD sampling techniques on the sample frame consisting of the entire United States telephone population. The sample frame is updated quarterly. Knowledge Networks excludes only those banks of telephone numbers (consisting of 100 telephone numbers) that have zero directory-listed phone numbers. Knowledge Networks telephone numbers are selected from the 1+ banks with equal probability of selection for each number. Note that the sampling is done without replacement to ensure that numbers already fielded by Knowledge Networks do not get fielded again. Having generated the initial list of telephone numbers, the sample preparation system excludes confirmed disconnected and non-residential telephone numbers. Next, the sample is screened to exclude numbers that are not in the WebTV Internet Service Provider network. This process results in the exclusion of approximately 6% to 8% of the United States population. This percentage is diminishing steadily and as of July 2001, we will begin to include a small sample from the out of WebTV Internet Service Provider network in the panel to represent these areas and reduce coverage error. Telephone numbers for which Knowledge Networks is able to recover a valid postal address (about 50%) are sent an advance mailing informing them that they have been selected to participate in the Knowledge Networks Panel. In addition to information Page 8

11 about the Knowledge Networks Panel, the advance mailing also contains a monetary incentive to encourage cooperation when the interviewer calls. Following the mailing, the telephone recruitment process begins. The numbers called by interviewers consist of all numbers sent an advance mailing, as well as 50% of the numbers not sent an advance mailing. The resulting cost efficiency more than offsets the decrease in precision caused by the need for sample weights. Cases sent to telephone interviewers are dialed up to 90 days, with at least 15 dial attempts on cases where no one answers the phone, and 25 dial attempts on phone numbers known to be associated with households. Extensive refusal conversion is also performed. Experienced interviewers conduct all recruitment interviews. An interview, which typically requires about 10 minutes, begins with the interviewer informing the household member that they have been selected to join the Knowledge Networks Panel. They are told that in return for completing a short survey weekly, the household will be given a WebTV set-top box and free monthly Internet access. All members in the household are then enumerated, and some initial demographic variables and background information of prior computer and Internet usage are collected. To ensure consistent delivery of survey content, each non-internet household is provided with identical hardware. Microsoft s WebTV is the hardware platform currently used by the Knowledge Networks panel. The device consists of a set-top box that connects to a TV and the telephone. It also includes a remote keyboard and pointing device. WebTV has a built-in 56K modem that provides the household with a connection to the Internet. The base unit also has a small hard drive to accommodate large file downloads, including video files. File downloads do not require any user intervention and usually occur during off hours. Prior to shipment, each unit is custom configured with individual accounts, so that it is ready for immediate use by the household. Most households are able to install the hardware without additional assistance, though Knowledge Networks maintains a telephone technical support line and will, when needed, provide on-site installation. The Knowledge Networks Call Center also contacts household members who do not respond to and attempts to restore contact and cooperation. All new panel members are sent an initial survey to confirm equipment installation and familiarize them with the WebTV unit. Demographics such as gender, age, race, income, and education are collected for each participant to create a member profile. This information can be used to determine eligibility for specific studies and need not be gathered with each survey. Starting in August 2002, Knowledge Networks began oversampling households that have pre-existing, home-based Internet access, allowing these households to participate in the web-enabled panel using their own equipment and Internet access. These panel members are enrolled into a panel loyalty program intended to encourage long-term participation in the research panel. Page 9

12 Survey Administration For client-based surveys, a sample is drawn at random from active panel members who meet the screening criteria (if any) for the client s study. The typical sample size is between 200 and 2000 persons, depending on the purpose of the study. Once selected, members can be sent an advance letter by several days prior to receiving the questionnaire through their WebTV appliance or personal computer to notify them of an important, upcoming survey. Once assigned to a survey, members receive a notification on their WebTV or personal computer letting them know there is a new survey available for them to take. The notification contains a button to start the survey. No login name or password is required. The field period depends on the client s needs, and can range anywhere from a few minutes to two weeks. reminders are sent to uncooperative panel members. If does not generate a response, a phone reminder is initiated. The usual protocol is to wait at least three days and to permit a weekend to pass before calling. Knowledge Networks also operates an ongoing incentive program to encourage participation and create member loyalty. To assist panel members with their survey taking, each individual has a personalized home page that lists all the surveys that were assigned to that member and have yet to be completed. Survey Sampling from Panel Once Panel Members are recruited and profiled, they become eligible for selection for specific surveys. In most cases, the specific survey sample represents a simple random sample from the panel. The sample is drawn from eligible members using an implicitly stratified systematic sample design. Customized stratified random sampling based on profile data is also conducted, as required by specific studies. The sample design for the Knowledge Networks Panel Sample begins as an equal probability design that is self-weighting with several known deviations to make the sample more flexible and efficient. Adjustments are calculated and applied to base sampling weights to account for these known deviations. There are also several other sources of survey error that are an inherent part of any survey process such as nonresponse, non-coverage and response error. We address these sources of sampling and nonsampling survey error using multiple adjustments to the weights, which we describe below. Page 10

13 Panel Sample Design Weights The seven sources of deviation from an equal probability sample design are: 1. Subsampling of telephone numbers for which we could not find an address, 2. Random Digit Dial sampling rates proportional to the number of phone lines in the household, 3. Minor oversampling of Chicago and Los Angeles due to early pilot surveys in those two cities, 4. Short-term double-sampling the four largest states (CA, NY, FL, and TX) and central region states, and 5. Under-sampling of households not covered by MSN TV. 6. Oversampling of minority households (Black and Hispanic) 7. Oversampling of households with personal computers and access to the Internet. 8. Selection of one adult per household. A few words about each feature: 1. Once the telephone numbers have been purged and screened, we address match as many of these numbers as possible. The success rate so far has been in the 60-70% range. The telephone numbers with addresses are sent an advance letter, notifying the household that they will be contacted by phone to join the Knowledge Networks panel. The remaining, unmatched numbers were subsampled in the past in order to reduce costs. As of Q1, 2006, we no longer subsample unmatched numbers. 2. As part of the field data collection operation, we collect information on the number of separate phone lines in the selected households. We correspondingly, down-weight the households with multiple phone lines. 3. Two pilot surveys carried out in Chicago and Los Angeles increased the relative size of the sample from these two cities. The impact of this feature is disappearing as the panel grows, but we still include it as part of our correction process. 4. Since we anticipated additional surveying in the four largest states, we doublesampled these states during January-October Similarly, the Central region states were oversampled for a brief period. 5. Certain areas of the U.S. are not serviced by MSN. We select a smaller sample of phone numbers in those areas and use other Internet Service Providers for Internet access of recruited households in those areas. 6. As of October 2001, we began oversampling minority households (Black and Hispanic) to increase panel capacity for those subgroups. Page 11

14 7. As of August 2002, we began ovesampling households with personal computers and access to the Internet to reduce the panel costs associated with distributing, set-up and maintenance of MSN TV units. 8. For most of our surveys, we select panel members across the board, regardless of household affiliation. For some surveys, however, we select members in two stages: households in the first stage and one adult per household in the second stage. We correct for this feature by multiplying the probabilities of selection by 1/a i where a i represents the number of adults (18 and over) in the household. To reduce the effects of potential nonresponse and noncoverage bias in panel estimates, a cell post-stratification adjustment is applied to panel weights after accounting for sample design factors using demographic distributions from the most recent data from the Current Population Survey. The post-stratification variables include age, race, gender, and Hispanic ethnicity and are applied prior to selection of any client sample from the Knowledge Networks panel. Sample Design of the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations American Public Opinion Survey The sample universe for the American Public Opinion Survey is all people 18+ that live in the United States. The sample was selected to obtain a proportionally representative unweighted sample by party affiliation using party affiliation data collected from Knowledge Networks panel members with the following distribution: Republican: 45% Independent/Other: 7% Democrat: 48% Party identification questions were asked again in the field to match the questions used by CCFR. The difference between the KN and CCFR version is that in the follow up question to independents / others the CCFR question has an option for Neither while the KN question does not. This difference results in a higher percentage of independents responding to the CCFR question. 1,570 panel members were sampled for the survey, 1,227 completed for a survey completion rate of 78%. Preparation of Final Weights for the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations American Public Opinion Survey Once the American Public Opinion Survey data was returned from the field, we subjected the final respondent data to a poststratification process to adjust for variable nonresponse and noncoverage. Demographic and geographic distributions from the April 2006 Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the population of adults 18 and older were used as benchmarks in this adjustment. Page 12

15 Additionally, benchmarks on Internet penetration from the Knowledge Networks Panel were used in the post-stratification since they are more current than the CPS data on Internet penetration in the U.S.or unavailable from the CPS. The primary purpose of a poststratification adjustment to CPS and Knowledge Networks panel data is to reduce the sampling variance for characteristics highly correlated with known demographic and geographic totals called population benchmarks. This adjustment also helps reduce bias due to variable nonresponse. The following benchmark distributions were utilized for the poststratification adjustment of the Study data: Gender (Male, Female) Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+) Race/Hispanic ethnicity (White/Nonhispanic, Black/Nonhispanic, Other/Nonhispanic, 2+ Races/Nonhispanic, Hispanic) Education (Less than High School, High School, Some college, Bachelor and beyond) Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) Metropolitan Area (Yes, No) Internet Access (Yes, No) Comparable distributions were calculated using all completed cases (1,227) from the survey. Since the sample sizes are typically too small to accommodate a complete crosstabulation of all the survey variables with the benchmark variables, we apply an approach called iterative proportional fitting for the post-stratification weighting adjustment. Iterative proportional fitting ratio adjusts the sample data back to all of the benchmarks by iteratively fitting the weighted sample data to the marginal distributions of the benchmark data until the sample distributions converge to the benchmark distributions. After the post-stratification adjustment, we examined the distribution of the weights calculated above for all survey respondents to identify and truncate outliers to the upper and lower tails of the weight distribution for the sample. Finally, the post-stratified and truncated weights of all were scaled so that the weights sum to the qualified sample size 1,227. Page 13

16 APPENDIX A: QUESTIONNAIRE INTRO In this survey, we'd like your opinions about some important foreign relations issues. There is no right or wrong answer and please answer the questions based on your knowledge. If you do not know the answer to a question, you can simply skip it and go on to the next question. BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 1. When you follow the news these days, how interested are you in news about the relations of the United States with other countries? Q1 1. Very interested 2. Somewhat interested 3. Hardly interested 4. Don t follow the news BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 3. Below is a list of possible threats to the vital interest of the United States in the next 10 years. For each one, please select whether you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all. [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Critical Threat Important but not Critical Not Important [RANDOMIZE] 1. The development of China as a world power 2. Islamic fundamentalism 3. The possibility of unfriendly countries becoming nuclear powers 4. International terrorism 5. Large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the U.S. 6. Economic competition from low-wage countries 7. Global warming 8. AIDS, avian flu, and other potential epidemics 9. Tensions between India and Pakistan 10. Disruption in energy supply 11. A confrontation between mainland China and Taiwan 12. Instability and conflict on the Korean Peninsula 13. Economic competition from Asian countries BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS Page 14

17 5. Below is a list of possible foreign policy goals that the U.S. might have. For each one, please select whether you think that it should be a very important foreign policy goal of the U.S., a somewhat important foreign policy goal, or not an important goal at all. [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Very Important Somewhat Important Not Important at All [RANDOMIZE] 1. Protecting weaker nations against foreign aggression 2. Strengthening the United Nations 3. Combating international terrorism 4. Maintaining superior military power worldwide 5. Protecting the jobs of American workers 6. Helping to bring a democratic form of government to other nations 7. Securing adequate supplies of energy 8. Controlling and reducing illegal immigration 9. Helping to improve the standard of living of less developed nations 10. Improving the global environment 11. Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons 12. Promoting and defending human rights in other countries 13. Promoting economic growth 14. Combating world hunger BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 10. Based on what you know, do you think the U.S. should or should not participate in the following treaties and agreements? [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Should Participate Should Not Participate [RANDOMIZE] 1. The Kyoto agreement to reduce global warming 2. The treaty that would prohibit nuclear weapon test explosions worldwide 3. The agreement on the International Criminal Court that can try individuals for war crimes, genocide, or crimes against humanity if their own country won t try them 4. An agreement under the treaty banning biological weapons that would allow international inspectors to examine biological research laboratories to ensure that countries are not producing biological weapons BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 15. Please select whether you agree or disagree with the following statement. Page 15

18 When dealing with international problems, the U.S. should be more willing to make decisions within the United Nations even if this means that the U.S. will sometimes have to go along with a policy that is not its first choice. [Leave in Order] Q15 1. Agree 2. Disagree BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 25. Thinking about specific steps that could be taken to strengthen the United Nations, here are some options that have been proposed. For each one, select if you would favor or oppose this step. [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Favor Oppose [RANDOMIZE] 1 Giving the UN the power to regulate the international arms trade 2 Having a standing UN peacekeeping force selected, trained and commanded by the United Nations 3 Giving the UN the power to fund its activities by imposing a small tax on such things as the international sale of arms or oil 4 Giving the UN the authority to go into coutries in order to investigate violations of human rights 5 Creating an international marshalls service that could arrest leaders responsible for genocide BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 27. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council are China, France, Russia, Britain, and the United States. Some people have proposed that the permanent membership should be expanded. Would you favor or oppose each of the following specific countries becoming permanent members: Q27 1. Favor 2. Oppose 1. India 2. Japan Page 16

19 3. Germany 4. Brazil 5. South Africa BASE: EACH COUNTRY THAT WAS SKIPPED IN Q27 27B. You skipped items in the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council are China, France, Russia, Britain, and the United States. Some people have proposed that the permanent membership should be expanded. Would you favor or oppose each of the following specific countries becoming permanent members: Q27B 1. Favor 2. Oppose 3. Depends 1. India 2 Japan 3 Germany 4 Brazil 5 South Africa BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 45. The World Trade Organization was established to rule on disputes over trade treaties. If another country files a complaint with the World Trade Organization and it rules against the U.S., as a general rule, should the U.S. comply with that decision or not? Q Should Comply Should Not Comply BASE: Q45 SKIPPED 45B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. The World Trade Organization was established to rule on disputes over trade treaties. If another country files a complaint with the World Trade Organization and it rules against the U.S., as a general rule, should the U.S. comply with that decision or not? Q45B Should Comply Should Not Comply Depends BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 50. Here are some positions about the possible use of nuclear weapons by the U.S. Which one comes closest to yours? [READ LIST IN ORDER] Q50 Page 17

20 1. The U.S. should never use nuclear weapons under any circumstances. 2. The U.S. should only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack. 3. In certain circumstances, the U.S. should use nuclear weapons even if it has not suffered a nuclear attack. BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 65. In the past, the international community has agreed that all countries have the right to produce nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes. Now it has been proposed that certain countries not be allowed to develop nuclear fuel out of concern they will use it to develop nuclear weapons. Do you think this proposal is a good idea or a bad idea? Q Good idea Bad Idea BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 75. As you may know the U.S. has a law that forbids the U.S. from selling civilian nuclear technology to countries that have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. India did not sign the treaty and produced nuclear weapons in 1998, so the U.S. has not sold it nuclear technology. Last July, India and the U.S. agreed that the U.S. will change its laws so that it can sell nuclear technology to India, while India will allow the UN s nuclear agency to inspect some of its nuclear power plants. Here are two arguments on this issue. Which one is closer to yours? [ROTATE] Q75 1. Selling India civilian nuclear technology is a good idea because it will strengthen U.S. India relations and contribute to peace and stability in Asia 2. Selling India civilian nuclear technology is a bad idea because it will suggest to other countries that they can develop nuclear weapons and get away with it BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 90. As you may know, Iran has recently announced that it has successfully enriched uranium. Do you think that Iran is producing enriched uranium strictly to fuel its energy needs or do you think it is trying to develop nuclear weapons? Q Energy needs Nuclear weapons BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 95. If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons how much, if at all, would that concern you? Q Not at all A little Somewhat Very much Page 18

21 BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 103. In regard to the possibility of the U.S. undertaking a military strike against Iran s nuclear energy facilities, do you think the U.S. should: 1. Not undertake a military strike 2. Undertake a military strike, but only if the UN authorizes the strike and other allies participate 3. Undertake a military strike even if the US has to act on its own BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 115. For each of the following conditions, please indicate when you think countries, on their own, should have the right to go to war with another country they believe may pose a threat to them Should have the right Should not have the right Q If they have strong evidence that the other country is acquiring weapons of mass destruction that could be used against them at some point in the future 2. If they have strong evidence that they are in imminent danger of being attacked by the other country 3. To stop neighboring countries from supporting an insurgency within their country 4. To maintain their territorial integrity 5. To preserve access to vital resources such as energy 6. If the other country attacks them first BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 120. Do you think that the UN Security Council should or should not have the right to authorize the use of military force for each of the following purposes: [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Should Should Not [RANDOMIZE] 1. To prevent a country that does not have nuclear weapons from acquiring them 2. To prevent severe human rights violations such as genocide 3. To stop a country from supporting terrorist groups 4. To restore by force a democratic government that has been overthrown 5. To defend a country that has been attacked Page 19

22 6. To prevent a country that does not have nuclear weapons from producing nuclear fuel that could be used to produce nuclear weapons BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 126 Some people say that the UN Security Council has the responsibility to authorize the use of military force to protect people from severe human rights violations such as genocide, even against the will of their own government. Others say that the UN Security Council does not have such a responsibility. Do you think that the UN Security Council does or does not have this responsibility? Q Has this responsibility Does not have this responsibility BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS Q128 Do you think that in regards to the violence that is occurring in the Darfur region of Sudan the UN Security Council: QNEW 1. Does not have the right to authorize intervention 2. Has the right, but not a responsibility, to authorize intervention 3. Has a responsibility to authorize intervention BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 129. The UN Security Council has asked Iran to stop enriching uranium. If Iran continues to enrich uranium do you think the UN Security Council should: Q Not pressure Iran to stop enriching uranium 2. Continue diplomatic efforts to get Iran to stop enriching uranium 3. Impose economic sanctions on Iran 4. Authorize a military strike against Iran s nuclear energy facilities BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 130. There has been some discussion about the circumstances that might justify using U.S. troops in other parts of the world. Please give your opinion about some situations. Would you favor or oppose the use of U.S. troops: [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Favor Oppose [RANDOMIZE] 1. If North Korea invaded South Korea 2. If China invaded Taiwan 3. As part of an international force to keep the peace between India and Pakistan 4. To be part of an international peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians Page 20

23 5. To stop a government from committing genocide and killing large numbers of its own people 6. To ensure the oil supply 7. To install democratic governments in states where dictators rule 8. To deal with humanitarian crises 9. If Iran attacked Israel 10. To stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons 11. To be a part of an international peacekeeping force to stop the killing in Darfur BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 140. Below are a number of statements about the Iraq war. Please mark whether you agree or disagree with each statement. Q Agree Disagree 1. The threat of terrorism has been reduced by the war. 2. The war will lead to the spread of democracy in the Middle East. 3. The war has worsened America's relations with the Muslim world. 4. The experience of the Iraq war should make nations more cautious about using military force to deal with rogue states. BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 145. Most countries have agreed to rules that prohibit torturing prisoners to extract information. Which comes closer to your point of view? Q Terrorists pose such an extreme threat that governments should now be allowed to use torture if it may gain information that saves innocent lives 2. Rules against torture should be maintained because torture is morally wrong and weakening these rules may lead to the torture of U.S. soldiers who are held prisoner abroad BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 160. When it comes to economic development do you think the way that the Chinese government manages its economy and its political system is more of an advantage or more of a disadvantage for China? Q More of an advantage More of a disadvantage BASE: Q160 SKIPPED Page 21

24 160B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. When it comes to economic development do you think the way that the Chinese government manages its economy and its political system is more of an advantage or more of a disadvantage for China? Q160B More of an advantage More of a disadvantage No impact either way BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 165. Turning to something else, do you believe that globalization, especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world, is mostly good or mostly bad for the U.S.? [Leave in Order] Q Mostly good 2. Mostly bad BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 185. Which of the following three positions comes closest to your point of view about lowering trade barriers such as tariffs? [READ LIST IN ORDER] Q I favor agreements to lower trade barriers provided the government has programs to help workers who lose their jobs 2. I favor agreements to lower trade barriers, but I oppose government programs to help workers who lose their jobs 3. I oppose agreements to lower trade barriers BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 190. Overall, do you think international trade is good or bad for: [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Good Bad [RANDOMIZE] 1. The U.S. economy 2. American companies 3. Consumers like you 4. Creating jobs in America 5. The environment Page 22

25 6. Job security for American workers 7. Your own standard of living BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 195. Overall, do you think that countries that are part of international trade agreements should or should not be required to maintain minimum standards for working conditions? [Leave in Order] Q Should be required 2. Should not be required BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 196. Overall, do you think that countries that are part of international trade agreements should or should not be required to maintain minimum standards for protection of the environment? [Leave in Order] Q Should be required 2. Should not be required BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 202. In general, do you think that the following countries practice fair trade or unfair trade with the U.S.? [Battery: response options will be in columns next to each battery item] Q Fair Trade Unfair Trade [RANDOMIZE] 1. The countries of the European Union 2. Japan 3. South Korea 4. China 5. Mexico 6. Canada 7. India 8. Australia BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 205. Currently there is a debate about outsourcing U.S. jobs, that is, moving jobs to countries where wages are lower. Which position is closer to yours? [ROTATE] Q Outsourcing is mostly a good thing because it results in lower prices in the U.S. which helps stimulate the economy and create new jobs 2. Outsourcing is mostly a bad thing because American workers lose their jobs to people in other countries. Page 23

26 BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS Q210. Do you think the U.S. should have a free trade agreement that would lower barriers such as tariffs with each of the following countries? 1. Yes 2. No Q Japan 2. China 3. India 4. South Korea [ROTATE 240/245] BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 240. In your opinion, should American companies generally be allowed or not be allowed to purchase a controlling interest in large companies in the following countries: Should be allowed Should not be allowed Q EU countries 2. China 3. Japan 4. India 5. South Korea BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 245. In your opinion, should companies from the following countries generally be allowed or not be allowed to purchase a controlling interest in American companies: Should be allowed Should not be allowed Q EU countries 2. China 3. Japan 4. India 5. South Korea BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 250. Please rate how much you think the following countries are leaders in developing new products and technologies. Please answer on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 meaning not at all a leader and 10 meaning very much a leader. Q U.S. _ _ Page 24

27 2. India _ _ 3. China _ _ 4. South Korea _ _ 5. Japan _ _ 6. Germany _ _ BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 255. Thinking about 10 years from now, please rate how much you think the following countries will be leaders in developing new products and technologies. Please answer on a scale of 0 to 10 with 0 meaning not at all a leader and 10 meaning very much a leader. Q U.S. _ _ 2. India _ _ 3. China _ _ 4. South Korea _ _ 5. Japan _ _ 6.Germany _ _ BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 260. Should legal immigration into the U. S. be kept at its present level, increased or decreased? [KEEP IN ORDER] Q Kept at present level 2. Increased 3. Decreased BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 262. There is a controversy over what the countries of the world, including the U.S., should do about the problem of global warming. Here are three statements. Please tell me which statement comes closest to your own point of view. Q Until we are sure that global warming is really a problem, we should not take any steps that would have economic costs 2. The problem of global warming should be addressed, but its effects will be gradual, so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost 3. Global warming is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 270. If the less-developed countries make a commitment to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, do you think the developed countries should provide substantial aid to help them? Page 25

28 Q Yes, should help less-developed countries 2. No, should not provide aid BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 300. Do you think it will be best for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs or if we stay out of world affairs? [Leave in Order] Q Active part 2. Stay out BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 302. Which statement comes closest to your position? [READ LIST IN ORDER] Q As the sole remaining superpower, the U.S. should continue to be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems 2. The U.S. should do its share in efforts to solve international problems together with other countries 3. The U.S. should withdraw from most efforts to solve international problems BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 315. Do you think that the United States has the responsibility to play the role of world policeman, that is, to fight violations of international law and aggression wherever they occur? Q Yes 2. No BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 316. Please select if you agree or disagree with the following statement: The U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be. Q Agree 2. Disagree BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 318. Do you think the U.S. should or should not make active efforts to ensure that no other country becomes a superpower? Q Should make active efforts 2. Should not make active efforts Page 26

29 BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 323. In your opinion, how important is it that the U.S., China, and India work together on the following: Q Very important Somewhat important Not very important 1. Reducing competition over vital energy resources like oil and gas 2. Expanding trade 3. Raising the standard of living in Asian countries 4. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions 5. Stopping the spread of nuclear weapons to new countries in Asia 6. Resolving conflicts in Asia BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 324. Thinking about the future, how likely do you think it is that each of the following will be a potential source of conflict between major powers in Asia? Q Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely 1. Competition over vital energy resources like oil and gas 2. Economic competition between Asian countries 3. The spread of nuclear weapons to new countries in Asia 4. The growth of Chinese military power 5. The situation on the Korean Peninsula 6. Relations between India and Pakistan 7. Relations between mainland China and Taiwan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 325. In your opinion, are the following countries playing a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative role in resolving the key problems facing Asia? Q The U.S. 2. China 3. Japan 4. India Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative Page 27

30 5. South Korea BASE: EACH COUNTRY SKIPPED IN Q B. You skipped items in the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. In your opinion, are the following countries playing a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative role in resolving the key problems facing Asia? Q325B Neither positive nor negative 1. The U.S. 2. China 3. Japan 4. India 5. South Korea Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 333. Please rate your feelings toward some countries and peoples, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling, zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling, and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that country or those people. If you have no opinion or have never heard of that country or those people, leave the box blank and move on to the next question. Q333 [RANDOMIZE] 1. North Korea _ _ _ 2. Germany _ _ _ 3. Mexico _ _ _ 4. Israel _ _ _ 5. Great Britain _ _ _ 6. China _ _ _ 7. Saudi Arabia _ _ _ 8. France _ _ _ 9. South Korea _ _ _ 10. India _ _ _ 11. Japan _ _ _ 12. Australia _ _ _ 13. Iran _ _ _ Page 28

31 14. Indonesia _ _ _ 15. Iraq _ _ _ BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 335. Please rate your feelings toward some international organizations, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling, zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling, and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number, the more favorable your feelings are toward those organizations. If you have no opinion or have never heard of that organization, leave the box blank and move on to the next question. Q335 [RANDOMIZE.] 1. The World Trade Organization (WTO) _ _ _ 2. The United Nations _ _ _ 3. The World Bank _ _ _ 4. Multinational corporations _ _ _ 5. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) _ _ _ 6. International human rights groups _ _ _ 7. The World Court _ _ _ 8. The World Health Organization (WHO) _ _ _ BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 338. In your opinion, has U.S. influence in Asia over the past 10 years: Q Increased 2. Remained about the same 3. Decreased BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 345. I would like to know how much influence you think each of the following countries has in the world. Please answer on a 0 to 10 scale; with 0 meaning they are not at all influential and 10 meaning they are extremely influential. Q345 (READ AND RANDOMLY ROTATE): 1. The United States _ _ 2. Russia _ _ 3. Japan _ _ 4. Germany _ _ 5. China _ _ 6. India _ _ 7. European Union _ _ 8. Great Britain _ _ 9. France _ _ Page 29

32 BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 347. On the same 10 point scale how much influence would you want each of the following countries to have in the world: Q China _ _ 2. India _ _ 3. U.S. _ _ 4. Japan _ _ 5. European Union _ _ BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS (EXCLUSIVE FROM Q440) 350. Using the same 10 point scale, please say how much influence you think each of the following countries will have in the world 10 years from now. Q350 [ROTATE] 1. The United States _ _ 2. Russia _ _ 3. Japan _ _ 4. Germany _ _ 5. China _ _ 6. India _ _ 7. European Union _ _ 8. Great Britain _ _ 9. France _ _ BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 352. Do you think that it is more likely that someday China s economy will grow to be as large as the U.S. economy or that the U.S. economy will always stay larger than China s? Q China's economy will grow as large as the U.S. economy 2. The U.S. economy will always stay larger than China's BASE: Q ABOVE YES RESPONDENTS (Q352=1) 355. Just your best guess; in how many years will China s economy become as large as the U.S. economy? [NUMBER BOX, RANGE 1 TO 999] BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 356. If China s economy were to grow to be as large as the U.S. economy, do think that would be mostly positive, mostly negative, or equally positive and negative? Q 356 Page 30

33 Mostly positive Mostly negative Equally positive and negative BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 358. Do you think the U.S. loans more money to China or that China loans more money to the U.S.? Q U.S. loans more to China 2. China loans more to U.S. 3. They loan each other about the same amount of money BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 365. Thinking about what will happen in the next 50 years, do you believe that: Q The United States will continue to be the world s leading power 2. Another nation will become as powerful as the United States 3. The United States will be surpassed in power by another nation BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 377. For each of the following possible future trends, please tell me if you would see it as mainly positive or mainly negative: Q Mainly positive Mainly negative 1. China becomes significantly more powerful economically than it is today 2. China becomes significantly more powerful militarily than it is today 3. India becomes significantly more powerful militarily than it is today 4. India becomes significantly more powerful economically than it is today 5. The U.S. becomes significantly less powerful militarily than it is today 6. The U.S. become significantly less powerful economically than it is today BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 400. In your view, which continent is more important to the U.S. - Asia or Europe? Q Asia 2. Europe BASE: Q400 IS SKIPPED 400B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. In your view, which continent is more important to the U.S. - Asia or Europe? Page 31

34 Q400B 1. Asia 2. Europe 3. Both equally important BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 405. In terms of American vital interests today, which country is more important to the United States Japan or China? Q Japan 2. China BASE: Q405 IS SKIPPED 405B. You skipped the previous question. Please read this question and make a selection from a slightly different set of possible answers. In terms of American vital interests today, which country is more important to the United States Japan or China? Q405B 1. Japan 2. China 3. Both equally important Trilateral Cooperation/Competition BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 425. In your opinion are relations of the United States with the following countries improving, worsening or staying about the same Improving Worsening Staying about the same Q China 2. India 3. Japan 4. Mexico 5. South Korea 6. European Union BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 427 How much do you trust the following countries to act responsibly in the world? Q Page 32

35 Not at all Not very much Somewhat A great deal 1. China 2. India 3. Japan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 430. How much do you think the following countries take the interests of the U.S. into account when making foreign policy decisions? Q Not at all Not very much Somewhat A great deal Q China 2. India 3. Japan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 435. How much do you trust the following countries to keep their commitments? Not at all Not very much Somewhat A great deal Q China 2. India 3. Japan BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 445a. In dealing with the rise of China s power, do you think the U.S. should: Q445a 1. Undertake friendly cooperation and engagement with China 2. Actively work to limit the growth of China s power BASE: ALL RESPONDENTS 455. At present, are the following countries mostly rivals or mostly partners? Mostly Rivals Mostly Partners Q U.S. and India 2. U.S. and China 3. China and India Page 33