ASK ALL: How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election... Quite a lot or only a little?

Transcription

1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS NOVEMBER 2008 ELECTION WEEKEND SURVEY FINAL TOPLINE October 29-November 1, 2008 General Public N=3,402 Registered Voters N=2,995 ASK ALL: THOUGHT How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election... Quite a lot or only a little? (VOL.) Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) DK/ A lot Some Little None Ref November, =100 Late October, =100 Mid-October, *=100 Early October, =100 Late September, =100 Mid-September, =100 August, =100 July, =100 June, =100 Late May, =100 April, =100 March, =100 Late February, = November, =100 Mid-October, =100 Early October, =100 September, =100 August, =100 July, =100 June, =100 May, =100 Late March, =100 Mid-March, *= November, =100 Late October, *=100 Mid-October, =100 Early October, =100 September, =100 July, *=100 June, *=100 May, =100 April, *= November, *=100 October, =100 Late September, =100 Early September, =100 July, *=100 June, =100 1

2 THOUGHT CONTINUED (VOL.) Quite (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) DK/ A lot Some Little None Ref Early October, =100 September, =100 August, *=100 June, = Gallup: November, =100 Gallup: October, =100 Gallup: August, =100 Gallup: September, =100 ASK ALL: Q.1 How closely have you been following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 1 Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL.) Closely Closely Closely Closely DK/Ref 2008 November, *=100 Late October, =100 Mid-October, *=100 Mid-September, *= November, *= November, *= November, *= October, =100 ASK ALL RESPONDENTS WHO ARE NOT IN NORTH DAKOTA: RESPONDENTS IN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BE COUNTED AS REGISTERED VOTERS AND SKIPPED TO PRECINCT. DO NOT ASK REGIST OR REGICERT OF THESE RESPONDENTS. REGIST These days, many people are so busy they can't find time to register to vote, or move around so often they don't get a chance to re-register. Are you NOW registered to vote in your precinct or election district or haven't you been able to register so far? IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED '1' YES IN REGIST AND NOT IN DAY OF STATE ASK: REGICERT Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote, or is there a chance that your registration has lapsed because you moved or for some other reason? BASED ON TOTAL [N=3,402]: Yes, Absolutely Chance DK/ Day of No, (VOL.) Registered Certain Lapsed Ref Registration Not Registered DK/Ref November, * =100 November, * =100 November, * 5 20 *=100 November, *=100 1 Complete trend for Q.1 not shown; comparable final election year trends are presented. 2

3 IF RESPONDENT IS IN DAY OF STATE & ANSWERED '2' OR '3' IN REGIST, ASK: PLANREG Do you plan to register so that you can vote in the upcoming election? BASED ON TOTAL IN DAY OF STATE [N=12]: 53 Yes 42 No 5 Don't know/refused (VOL.) 100 PROGRAMMING NOTE: A PERSON IS COUNTED AS REGISTERED (REGFINAL=1) AT THIS POINT IF THEY: (1) ARE IN NORTH DAKOTA (2) ANSWERED YES TO REGIST AND LIVE IN A DAY OF REGISTRATION STATE (3) ANSWERED YES TO REGICERT (4) ANSWERED YES TO PLANREG BASED ON TOTAL [N=3,402]: 83 Total registered voters 16 Total not registered 1 Don't know/refused (VOL.) 100 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PRECINCT Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district? Late Mid- Early Late Mid- Oct Oct Oct Sept Sept Aug July Yes No * Don t know/refused (VOL.) * * * * * * * ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.2 Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics [READ] Late Oct Early Oct Oct Late Sept Gallup Nov 1988 Oct A great deal A fair amount Only a little None Don't know/refused (VOL.) * * * * * *

4 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): OFTVOTE How often would you say you vote... [READ] 2 (VOL.) Nearly Part of Never (VOL.) (VOL.) Always Always The time Seldom Vote Other DK/Ref. November, *=100 Late October, *=100 Mid-October, *=100 Early October, =100 Late September, *=100 Mid-September, *=100 July, =100 November, *=100 Mid-October, *=100 November, *=100 Late October, =100 Mid-October, * 3 *=100 Early October, *=100 November, *=100 October, *=100 Early October, * 1 *=100 October, * *=100 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): WHERE Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote? Yes No/DK/Ref. November, =100 Late October, =100 November, =100 Late October, =100 Early October, =100 November, =100 November, =100 November, =100 Late October, =100 Early October, =100 November, =100 October, =100 November, =100 November, 1988 (Gallup) 89 11=100 October, 1988 (Gallup) 86 14=100 2 Complete trend for OFTVOTE not shown; comparable election year trends are presented. 4

5 ASK ALL: NOTE: BARR AND/OR NADER INCLUDED ONLY FOR RESPONDENTS IN STATES WHERE EACH IS ON THE BALLOT. Q.3 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote [READ AND ROTATE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS FIRST AND ROTATE BARR AND NADER TICKETS LAST] for the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, for the Libertarian ticket of Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, or for the Independent ticket of Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez? IF OTHER OR DK OR REF. (Q.3=5,8,9), ASK: Q.3a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ, ROTATE IN SAME ORDER AS Q.3]? IF CHOSE MCCAIN, OBAMA, BARR, OR NADER IN Q.3, ASK: Q.3b Do you support (INSERT PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE FROM Q.3 LAST NAME ONLY) strongly or only moderately? Other/ Mc- Only Oba- Only Don t Cain Strongly Mod 3 DK ma Strongly Mod DK Nader Barr know November, * =100 Late October, =100 Mid-October, * n/a n/a 10=100 Early October, * n/a n/a 10=100 Late September, * n/a n/a 9=100 Mid-September, * n/a n/a 10=100 August, * * n/a n/a 11=100 July, n/a n/a 11=100 June, * n/a n/a 12=100 Late May, n/a n/a 9=100 April, n/a n/a 6=100 March, n/a n/a 8=100 Late February, n/a n/a 7=100 November, * n/a 8=100 Mid-October, * n/a 9=100 Early October, * 2 n/a 9=100 September, n/a 7=100 August, * * 2 n/a 6=100 July, n/a 7=100 June, n/a 6=100 May, n/a 5=100 Late March, n/a 7=100 Mid-March, n/a 5=100 Two-way trial heats: June, n/a n/a 6=100 May, n/a n/a 5=100 Late March, n/a n/a 7=100 Mid-March, n/a n/a 5=100 Late February, n/a n/a 8=100 Early February, n/a n/a 6=100 Early January, n/a n/a 7=100 October, n/a n/a 8= Includes those who say they lean to the Republican or Democratic candidate. Prior to Mid-September, 2008, July, 2004, September, 2000, September, 1996, August, 1992, and September, 1988 the question did not specify vice presidential candidates. 5

6 Q.3/Q.3a/Q.3b CONTINUED Other/ Only Only Don t Bush Strongly Mod DK Gore Strongly Mod DK Nader Buchanan know November, * =100 Late October, * * 4 1 7=100 Mid-October, * * 4 1 7=100 Early October, * * 5 * 8=100 September, =100 July, =100 Late June, =100 Mid-June, =100 January, n/a 4 6=100 September, n/a 10 6=100 Two-way trial heats: July, n/a n/a 6=100 Mid-June, * n/a n/a 9=100 May, n/a n/a 9=100 March, n/a n/a 8=100 February, * n/a n/a 9=100 December, n/a n/a 5=100 October, n/a n/a 7=100 September, n/a n/a 7=100 July, n/a n/a 5=100 March, n/a n/a 5=100 January, n/a n/a 6=100 Early September, n/a n/a 7=100 Dole Clinton Perot November, * n/a 8=100 October, * 8 n/a 7=100 Late September, * 7 n/a 7=100 Early September, * n/a 6=100 July, n/a 6=100 March, n/a 5=100 September, n/a 3=100 July, n/a 5=100 Two-way trial heats: July, * n/a n/a 5=100 June, n/a n/a 5=100 April, =100 March, =100 February, =100 January, =100 July, =100 Bush, Sr. Clinton Perot Late October, n/a 3=100 Early October, n/a 9=100 June, n/a 6=100 Two-way trial heats: September, n/a n/a 9=100 August, n/a n/a 6=100 June, n/a n/a 13=100 May, n/a n/a 11=100 Late March, n/a n/a 7=100 October, n/a n/a 8=100 September, n/a n/a 6=100 May, n/a n/a 7=100 6

7 NO QUESTION 4 IF RESPONDENT IS REGISTERED (REGFINAL=1) AND DID NOT CHOOSE MCCAIN IN Q.3/Q.3a (Q.3=2,3,4 OR Q.3a=2,3,4,5,8,9) ASK: ROTATE Q.5 AND Q.6 Q.5 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for John McCain this Tuesday, or have you definitely decided not to vote for him? (VOL.) Chance might Decided not Don't know/ Vote for To vote for Refused McCain November, =61% Late October, =64% Mid-October, =62% Early October, =60% Late September, =58% Mid-September, =56% August, =57% July, =58% June, =60% Bush November, =55% Mid-October, =55% Early October, =52% September, =51% August, =55% July, =56% June, =52% May, =55% Late March, =54% Mid-March, =57% Late February, =56% Early February, =53% Bush November, =59% Late October, =55% Mid-October, =57% Early October, =57% September, =59% Mid-June, =54% Dole November, =68% October, =66% Late September, =65% Early September, =66% July, =58% Bush Sr. Late October, =66% Early October, =65% September, =62% August, =64% May, =53% 5 In June 2004, May 2004, Late March 2004, Mid-March 2004, Mid-June 2000 and July 1996 the head-to-head match-up was asked both as a three-way and a two-way trial heat. In those surveys, this question followed the two-way trial heat. 7

8 IF RESPONDENT IS REGISTERED (REGFINAL=1) AND DID NOT CHOOSE OBAMA IN Q.3/Q.3a (Q.3=1,3,4 OR Q.3a=1,3,4,5,8,9) ASK: ROTATE Q.5 AND Q.6 Q.6 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for Barack Obama this Tuesday, or have you definitely decided not to vote for him? (VOL.) Chance might Decided not Don't know/ Vote for To vote for Refused Obama November, =50% Late October, =48% Mid-October, =48% Early October, =50% Late September, =51% Mid-September, =54% August, =54% July, =53% June, =52% Kerry November, =54% Mid-October, =55% Early October, =59% September, =57% August, =53% July, =54% June, =54% May, =50% Late March, =53% Mid-March, =48% Late February, =52% Early February, =53% Gore November, =55% Late October, =57% Mid-October, =55% Early October, =56% September, =53% June, =54% Clinton November, =49% October, =49% Late September, =49% Early September, =48% July, =48% Clinton Late October, =56% Early October, =52% September, =46% August, =43% May, =55% 6 In June 2004, May 2004, Late March 2004, Mid-March 2004, Mid-June 2000 and July 1996 the head-to-head match-up was asked both as a three-way and a two-way trial heat. In those surveys, this question followed the two-way trial heat. 8

9 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PLAN1 Do you plan to vote in the presidential election, have you ALREADY voted, or don t you plan to vote? IF YES IN PLAN1 (PLAN1=1), ASK: PLAN3 How certain are you that you will vote? Are you absolutely certain, fairly certain, or not certain? Late Oct Plan to vote Absolutely Certain 75 5 Fairly Certain 6 * Not Certain * * Don t know/refused (VOL.) * 26 Already voted 15 1 Don t plan to vote 3 1 Don t know/refused (VOL.) ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PLAN1 Do you plan to vote in the presidential election, have you ALREADY voted, or don t you plan to vote? IF YES IN PLAN1 (PLAN1=1) ASK: PLAN2 Do you plan to cast your vote BEFORE Election Day or ON Election Day? Late Oct Plan to vote on Election Day Plan to vote early 31 9 Will vote before Election Day Already voted 15 1 Plan to vote but don t know when 1 2 Don t plan to vote/don't know (VOL.) ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.7 In your opinion, is the outcome of this presidential election especially important, or is it no more important than any other presidential election? Late Oct Nov Nov Nov Especially important No more important than the others Don't know/refused (VOL.)

10 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.8 If John McCain were to win the presidency, do you think he would continue George W. Bush s policies, or would he take the country in a different direction? [IF DEPENDS PROBE ONCE WITH: Just in general, do you think John McCain would continue George W. Bush s policies or take the country in a different direction?] Late Oct Mid-Oct Late Sept Mid-Sept June Late May March Continue Bush s policies Take country in a different direction Don t know/refused (VOL.) ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.9 Do you feel that Barack Obama is well-qualified or not well-qualified to be president? Late Oct Well-qualified Not well-qualified 34 9 Don t know/refused (VOL.) ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.10 So far in this presidential campaign, have you... (INSERT IN ORDER), or not? Have you [NEXT ITEM] or not? [INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: IF RESPONDENT ASKS, ASIDE FROM THE CURRENT CALL] (VOL.) Don t know/ Yes No Refused a. Received MAIL about one or more of the candidates November, =100 Mid-October, =100 March, =100 November, =100 b. Received s about the candidates or campaigns from any groups or political organizations =100 c. Been VISITED AT HOME by someone talking about the campaign November, *=100 Mid-October, *=100 November, *=100 d. Received PRE-RECORDED telephone calls about the campaign November, =100 Mid-October, =100 March, =100 November, =100 10

11 Q.10 CONTINUED (VOL.) Don t know/ Yes No Refused e. Received a phone call from a LIVE PERSON about the campaign November, =100 Mid-October, =100 March, =100 November, =100 TREND FOR COMPARISON Recently, have you been contacted over the phone by any candidates, campaigns or other groups urging you to vote in a particular way in the upcoming elections? Nov Mid-Oct Nov Yes No Don t know/refused f. Contributed money to any of the presidential candidates (VOL.) Don t know Yes No Refused November, =100 Mid-October, *=100 March, *=100 November, =100 TRENDS FOR COMPARISON Over the past 12 months, have you contributed money to any of the presidential candidates or not? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS June Yes 86 No 1 Don t Know/Refused (VOL.) 100 Did you, yourself contribute money to a campaign in support of one of the presidential candidates this year, or not? BASED ON VOTERS Post-Election Yes 84 No 1 Don t Know/Refused (VOL.)

12 Q.10 CONTINUED (VOL.) Don t know/ Yes No Refused g. Attended a campaign event November, *=100 Mid-October, *=100 March, =100 November, *=100 IF YES IN Q.10c (Q10c=1), ASK: Q.11 Thinking about when you were visited at home by someone talking about the campaign, were you urged to vote for [ROTATE ORDER OF CANDIDATES] John McCain OR Barack Obama? 14 Visited at home 2 McCain 8 Obama 1 Other (VOL.) 1 Both (VOL.) 2 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 86 Not visited at home * Don t know 100 IF YES IN Q.10d OR Q.10e (Q10d=1 OR Q10e=1), ASK: Q.12 Thinking about when you received telephone calls about the campaign, were you urged to vote for [ROTATE ORDER OF CANDIDATES] John McCain OR Barack Obama? 54 Received telephone calls 10 McCain 13 Obama 6 Other (VOL.) 13 Both (VOL.) 12 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 45 Did not receive telephone calls 1 Don t know

13 Q.12 CONTINUED TREND FOR COMPARISION Recently, have you been contacted over the phone by any candidates, campaigns or other groups urging you to vote in a particular way in the upcoming elections? IF YES, ASK: And were you urged to vote for George W. Bush and/or other Republican candidates OR John Kerry and/or other Democratic candidates? 7 BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS Nov 2004 Nov 2000 Yes Bush/Republicans 8 8 Bush Kerry/Democrats 8 6 Gore Other (VOL.) 2 2 Both (VOL.) 12 6 Don t know/refused 4 4 No Don t know/refused IF YES IN Q.10d (Q10d=1), ASK: Q.13 Thinking about when you receive PRE-RECORDED telephone calls about the campaign, do you usually listen to them or usually hang up? IF HANG UP IN Q.13 (Q13=2), ASK: Q.14 Would you say these pre-recorded calls make you angry, or are they just a minor annoyance? BASED ON THOSE WHO RECEIVED PRE-RECORDED CALLS [N=1,536]: Nov Listen Hang up Make me angry Minor annoyance 49 2 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 1 5 Don t know/refused (VOL.) Complete trend for comparison not shown; comparable presidential election weekend trends are presented. 13

14 ASK REGISTERED UNDECIDED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1 AND Q.3a=8,9). NOTE: BARR AND/OR NADER INCLUDED ONLY FOR RESPONDENTS IN STATES WHERE EACH IS ON THE BALLOT One last question about your opinion of the candidates... Q.15 I have been asked to try to get a choice for president from everyone I interview. Even though you may not have made up your mind, could you make a guess so I will have something to put down? The candidates are [READ AND ROTATE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS FIRST AND ROTATE BARR AND NADER TICKETS LAST]? 1 John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans 1 Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats * Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarians [OR] * Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez, as independents * Other candidate (VOL. DO NOT READ) * Not going to vote (VOL. DO NOT READ) 1 Don t know (VOL. DO NOT READ) 4 Refused (VOL. DO NOT READ) 7% TREND FOR COMPARISION BASED ON ALL REGISTERED VOTERS Nov 2004 Bush/Cheney 1 Kerry/Edwards 1 Nader/Camejo * (VOL.) Not going to vote * Undecided/Other 4 6% 14

15 ASK ALL: Thinking now about the nation s economy Q.16 How would you rate economic conditions in this country today as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=3,402]: (VOL.) Only Don t know/ Excellent Good Fair Poor Refused November, =100 Late October, 2008 * =100 Early October, =100 Late September, 2008 * =100 July, =100 April, *=100 March, =100 Early February, =100 January, =100 November, =100 September, =100 June, =100 February, =100 December, =100 Early November, 2006 (RVs) =100 Late October, =100 September, =100 March, =100 January, =100 Early October, =100 Mid-September, =100 Mid-May, =100 January, =100 December, =100 Early November, 2004 (RVs) =100 Mid-September, =100 August, =100 Late April, =100 Late February, =100 February 9-12, 2004 (Gallup) =100 January 12-15, 2004 (Gallup) =100 January 2-5, 2004 (Gallup) *=100 December 11-14, 2003 (Gallup) *=100 November 3-5, 2003 (Gallup) *=100 October 24-26, 2003 (Gallup) *=100 October 6-8, 2003 (Gallup) =100 September 8-10, 2003 (Gallup) *=100 August 4-6, 2003 (Gallup) *=100 February 17-19, 2003 (Gallup) *=100 February 4-6, 2002 (Gallup) =100 March 5-7, 2001 (Gallup) =100 January 7-10, 2000 (Gallup) =100 January 15-17, 1999 (Gallup) *=100 March 20-22, 1998 (Gallup) *=100 Jan 31 - Feb 2, 1997 (Gallup) *=100 March 15-17, 1996 (Gallup) =100 May 11-14, 1995 (Gallup) =100 15

16 Q.16 CONTINUED (VOL.) Only Don t know/ Excellent Good Fair Poor Refused January 15-17, 1994 (Gallup) * *=100 February 12-14, 1993 (Gallup) * =100 January 3-6, 1992 (Gallup) * =100 ASK IF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ONLY FAIR OR POOR (3,4 IN Q.16): Q.16a Do you think the U.S. economy is just having a few problems, is in a recession, or is in a depression? BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=3,402]: Late Oct Early Oct Late Sept July March Excellent/Good Only fair/poor Just having a few problems In a recession In a depression Don t know/refused (VOL.) Don t know/refused (VOL.) ASK ALL: And thinking about Iraq Q.17 Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force against Iraq? BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=3,402]: Right Wrong (VOL.) decision decision DK/Ref. November, =100 Late October, =100 Mid-October, =100 Mid-September, =100 June, =100 April, =100 Late February, =100 Late December, =100 October, =100 September, =100 July, =100 June, =100 April, =100 March, =100 February, =100 Mid-January, =100 Early January, =100 December, =100 Mid-November, =100 Early November, 2006 (RVs) =100 Late October, =100 Early October, =100 Early September, =100 August, =100 July, =100 16

17 Q.17 CONTINUED Right Wrong (VOL.) decision decision DK/Ref June, =100 April, =100 March, =100 February, =100 January, =100 December, =100 Late October, =100 Early October, =100 Mid-September, =100 July, =100 June, =100 February, =100 January, =100 December, =100 November, 2004 (RVs) =100 Mid-October, =100 Early October, =100 September, =100 August, =100 July, =100 June, =100 May, =100 Late April, =100 Early April, =100 Mid-March, =100 Late February, =100 Early February, =100 Mid-January, =100 Early January, =100 December, =100 October, =100 September, =100 August, =100 Early July, =100 May, =100 April 10-16, =100 April 8-9, =100 April 2-7, =100 March 28-April 1, =100 March 25-27, =100 March 23-24, =100 March 20-22, =100 Late January, =100 17

18 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? IF ANSWERED 3, 4, 5 OR 9 IN PARTY, ASK: PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? (VOL.) (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other DK/ Lean Lean Republican Democrat Independent Preference Party Ref. Rep Dem November, * 4= Late October, = Mid-October, * 2= Early October, * 2= Late September, * 2= Mid-September, * 2= August, = July, * 2= June, * 1= Late May, * 2= April, = March, * 4= Late February, * 2= Early February, * 2= January, * 1= ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): CLASS Which of the following labels best describes your household: [READ ITEMS, IN ORDER] (VOL.) (VOL.) Professional or More than one/ Don't know/ Business Working Struggling None Refused November, =100 TREND BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC: Early October, =100 April, =100 Early February, =100 January, =100 December, =100 September, =100 August, =100 January, =100 October, =100 January, =100 Mid-October, =100 February, 2004 GAP =100 August, =100 June, =100 June, =100 February, =100 June, =100 18

19 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PRIMARY In this year s presidential primary election, did you have a chance to vote in your state s primary or caucus, or did things come up that kept you from voting? Mid-Oct Voted Did not vote 35 1 Don t remember if voted (VOL.) 2 2 Refused (VOL.) ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PVOTE04A In the 2004 presidential election between George W. Bush and John Kerry, did things come up that kept you from voting, or did you happen to vote? ASK IF VOTED IN PRIMARY (PRIMARY=1) AND DID NOT VOTE IN 2004 (PVOTE04A=2-9): FIRST1 Had you voted before this year s primary, or was this the FIRST time you voted? ASK IF DID NOT VOTE IN PRIMARY (PRIMARY=2, 8, 9) AND DID NOT VOTE IN 2004 (PVOTE04A = 2-9): FIRST2 Have you voted before, or would this election be your first time voting? Mid-Oct First time voter this year 10 3 First time in primary/caucus 3 8 First time in general 7 88 Voted previously 89 1 Don t know/refused (VOL.) TREND FOR COMPARISON FIRST Will this election be the FIRST time that you have voted, or have you voted before? BASED ON ALL REGISTERED VOTERS Mid- Oct Nov Oct First time Have voted before Don t know/refused 0 * * Already voted * Don t plan to vote/don t know In Mid-October 2004, the question was asked as part of a series of items about whether they applied to the respondent. 19

20 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): SCALE10 I'd like you to rate your chance of voting this Tuesday on a scale of 10 to 1. If TEN represents a person who definitely will vote and ONE represents a person who definitely will NOT vote, where on this scale of 10 to 1 would you place yourself? Definitely Definitely will vote will not vote (VOL.) DK/Ref November, * 2 * * * 2 1=100 Late October, * 2 * * * 3 1=100 Mid-October, * * * 2 1=100 Mid-September, * 1 1 1=100 August, * 1 * 2 1=100 July, * 1 * 2 0=100 November, * =100 Late October, * 1 * 1 1=100 Early October, * 1 * 2 1=100 September, =100 November, * * * 2 1=100 Mid-October, * * * 2 1=100 Early November, =100 Early October, * * 2 2=100 Early November, * * * 3 1=100 Late October, * *=100 Mid-October, * * 1 1=100 Early October, * =100 Late October, =100 Early October, =100 November, * 1 * 2 1=100 October, * * * 1 *=100 Late September, * * * 1 1=100 November, =100 October, * 2 1=100 Gallup: September, * 1 * 4 *=100 Gallup: November, * * * 2 2=100 Gallup: October, * * 1 2=100 9 In Late October, Mid-October and November 2008, November 2006, November 2004 and Early November 2002, the 10 definitely will vote category also includes people who volunteered that they already voted. 20