Bush Leads on More Attributes Heading Into the Final Debate

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS POLL: CAMPAIGN TRACKING #8 10/11/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2004 Bush Leads on More Attributes Heading Into the Final Debate George W. Bush maintains substantial leads on leadership and clarity and a smaller but significant edge on honesty in the eyes of likely voters important advantages that John Kerry will try again to counter at the third presidential debate. Despite Kerry s progress at the first debate in establishing better personal appeal, likely voters by 23 points continue to say Bush has taken a clearer stand on the issues, and by 20 points say he s a stronger leader. Bush leads by a smaller seven-point margin on honesty and trustworthiness, which voters have cited as the most important candidate attribute. The two are essentially tied on who better understands Americans' problems. All these are little changed since before the debates, and underscore the work Kerry has cut out for him Wednesday night. 80% 70% 60% 57% 56% Personal Attributes ABC News poll Applies more to Bush Applies more to Kerry 50% 34% 36% 47% 44% 46% 30% 20% 10% 0% Taken a clear stand Strong leader Honest & trustworthy Understands your problems Overall, the race is holding steady: Fifty percent of likely voters support Bush, 46 percent support Kerry, one percent Ralph Nader in ABC News tracking poll interviews Saturday through Monday. That's exactly where the race has been the last few days.

2 60% 50% The 2004 Election Among Likely Voters ABC News and ABC/Washington Post polls 30% Bush Kerry Nader 20% 10% 0% 7/25 8/1 8/29 9/8 9/26 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/10 10/11 MOVEABLE Fifteen percent remain moveable undecided (two percent) or might change their minds (13 percent). Bush holds the edge among those who say their minds are definitely made up, percent. Moveables, though, divide by percent, Kerry-Bush. Kerry s task Wednesday night and beyond is to win over more of them. Bush Kerry Nader Und. Definites (84%) * 0 Moveables (15%) He has a shot: Moveables include more moderates, more independents, and they re more favorably inclined toward Kerry personally. Kerry s favorable rating among moveables is eight points higher than Bush s, and his unfavorable rating is 14 points lower. More moveables are undecided about him. Favorable-unfavorable views of the candidates Bush Kerry Definites 54-44% Moveables FAVES Overall, 47 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of Kerry, 45 percent unfavorable. That's better than it was before the first presidential debate (39-45

3 percent), but Kerry's going to want to bring it into more positive territory. Bush's overall favorability rating is a percent among all likely voters. There's a wide gender gap in these. Men view Bush favorably by 14 points, while women divide about evenly. In contrast, women view Kerry favorably by 13 points, while men see him unfavorably by 10 points. Independents, the key swing voters, are closely divided in their ratings of the candidates, percent favorable-unfavorable on Bush, percent on Kerry. It's similar in the horse race: Forty-eight percent of independents support Bush, 46 percent Kerry. However, Bush leads Kerry by double digits among independents on the qualities of leadership and clarity. Kerry leads by a narrow seven points in this group on empathy. Favorable-unfavorable views of the candidates Bush Kerry All 52-44% Men Women % 70% Favorable Views of the Candidates Among Likely Voters ABC News and ABC/Washington Post polls 60% 50% 30% 20% Bush Kerry 10% 0% 7/25 8/1 8/29 9/8 9/26 10/3 10/4 10/11 RELIGION Religion is a dividing factor in vote preferences. About two-thirds of white Protestants support Bush, including evangelical white Protestants (a core Bush group, they favor him by percent) and non-evangelicals (61-36 percent) alike.

4 Bush's support jumps to about nine in 10 among conservative evangelical white Protestants, who account for about one in 10 likely voters. Kerry, meanwhile, holds a 27- point lead among likely voters who profess no religion (also about one in 10 voters). Bush has an edge among white Catholics, who, along with independents, are a key swing voter group in presidential elections (their majority preference changes from election to election, and there s enough of them to affect the outcome). Fifty-two percent favor him, 45 percent Kerry. But Kerry's narrowed this gap after trailing Bush by 17 points among white Catholics before the debates. 80% Vote by Religion ABC News poll 70% 60% 65% Support Bush Support Kerry 62% 50% 52% 45% 30% 31% 35% 20% 10% 0% White Protestants White Catholics No religion White Protestants are more likely to say Bush better understands the problems of people like them, but on this question evangelicals and non-evangelicals differ: Evangelical white Protestants say Bush better understands them by a 40-point margin; nonevangelicals, by a smaller 11-point margin. White Catholics are nearly evenly split, while non-religious people say Kerry better understands their problems by 38 points. METHODOLOGY This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 9-11, 2004 among a random national sample of 1,808 adults, including 1,575 registered voters and 1,232 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin for the likely voter sample. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA. Analysis by Dalia Sussman.

5 ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) , or Lisa Finkel, (212) Full results follow (*= less than 0.5 percent). 3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidate are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 10/11/ * /10/ * /9/ * /8/ * /7/ * * /6/ /5/ /4/ * /3/ * 1 * 1 9/26/ * /8/ * /29/ * /1/ * /25/ * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 10/11/ * 1 * 2 10/10/ * 1 * 3 10/9/ * 2 * 3 10/8/ * 2 * 3 10/7/ * 2 * 2 10/6/ * 2 10/5/ * 1 * 2 10/4/ * 1 * 2 10/3/ * 1 * 2 9/26/ * 2 9/8/ * 2 * 2 8/29/ * 1 * 2 8/1/ * /25/ * 1 * 1 7/11/ /20/ * 1 * 1 5/23/ * /18/ * 2 1 * 3/7/ * (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

6 Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No vote NET Good Unlikely opin. Likely voters: 10/11/04 All Bush Kerry /10/04 All Bush Kerry /9/04 All Bush Kerry /8/04 All Bush Kerry /7/04 All Bush Kerry * 10/6/04 All Bush Kerry /5/04 All Bush Kerry /4/04 All Bush Kerry /3/04 All Bush Kerry /26/04 All Bush Kerry Registered voters: 9/26/04 All Bush Kerry /8/04 All Bush Kerry /29/04 All Bush Kerry /1/04 All Bush Kerry /25/04 All Bush Kerry /11/04 All Bush * Kerry /20/04 All * Bush * Kerry Regardless of (how you might vote/who you voted for), please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME) or perhaps you don't know enough to say. 10/11/04 - Summary Table - Likely Voters

7 Favorable Unfavorable No opinion a. George W. Bush b. John Kerry Trend: a. George W. Bush Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 10/11/04 LV /4/04 LV /3/04 LV /26/04 LV RV /8/04 RV /29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /7/ /6/00 RV /11/ /2/ /27/ /31/ /2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /19/ b. John Kerry Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 10/11/04 LV /4/04 LV /3/04 LV /26/04 LV RV /8/04 RV /29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /7/ Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry). 10/11/04 - Summary Table - Likely Voters a. He is honest and trustworthy b. He understands the problems of people like you c. He is a strong leader e. He has taken a clear stand on the issues Trend:

8 a. He is honest and trustworthy 10/11/04 LV /3/04 LV /26/04 LV RV /8/04 RV /29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV All b. He understands the problems of people like you 10/11/04 LV /3/04 LV /26/04 LV RV /8/04 RV /29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV All c. He is a strong leader 10/11/04 LV /3/04 LV /26/04 LV RV /8/04 RV /29/04 RV /1/04 RV /25/04 RV /20/04 RV All e. He has taken a clear stand on the issues 10/11/04 LV /26/04 LV /26/04 RV /8/04 RV ***END***