What to expect in European white fish markets?

Transcription

1 What to expect in European white fish markets? Rabobank Group RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness October, 2018 Gorjan Nikolik

2 Rabobank: Globally leading food and agribusiness lender and financial services provider 46 Countries Over 600 Offices Over 55,000 Employees Amsterdam Dublin Utrecht Moscow Calgary St Louis Chicago Toronto Cedar Falls San Francisco New York Washington DC El Centro Atlanta Dallas Mexico City Willemstad London Antwerp Paris Madrid Milan Warsaw Frankfurt Istanbul Delhi Mumbai Kolkata Bangalore Shanghai Beijing Hong Kong Tokyo Kigali Malema Kuala Lumpur Singapore Lubuan Asuncion Sao Paulo Ulónguè Tete Chimoio Nampula Beira Maxixe Maputo Jakarta Santiago de Chile Buenos Aires Melbourne Sydney Tasmania Wellington 2

3 I Groundfish: A sector with fairly stable supply and commodity prices Photo: Shutterstock 2018

4 Groundfish production is stable and sustainable, with a stable supply outlook Global groundfish (key species) supply and forecast Million MT 9 8,5 Overfishing period 8 7,5 TAC increase Stable supply 7 Biomass Recovery period 6,5 6 5,5 5 4, Source: FAO, Groundfish forum, Rabobank

5 Atlantic Cod follows a similar pattern of the larger ground fish category with a minor contraction recently Atlantic cod TAC development E Norway Russia EU Iceland Faroes / Greenland / Canada / USA Source: FAO, Groundfish forum, Rabobank

6 There is some growth in EU import of ground fish products, the majority of which are traded frozen Millions of MT % 2% -3% 6% 3% % 5% 3% - -15% Fresh Frozen Source: UN Comtrade, Rabobank

7 In Norway there is a gradual increase in Atlantic Cod prices but only recently surpassing 2011 price levels Atlantic Cod prices in Norway Cod prices in NOK/kg 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 Jan 2011 May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Fresh Frozen Source: Rafisklaget, Rabobank

8 But in the years of stable supply prices have stayed the same or have even decreased. Why is that? Groundfish commodity prices in the US us/lb Cod products 4,5 Pollock block 1,2 4,0 1,0 3,5 0,8 3,0 2,5 0,6 2,0 03/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2018 0,4 UB Cod, Sknls/Bnls, Loins, Double Fz, Atlantic 7 oz - Low $/lb UB Cod, Sknls/Bnls, Shatt, Double Fz, Atlantic 8-12 oz - Low $/lb UB Pollock, Block, Alaskan Minced, FOB New Eng - Low $/lb Source: Urner Berry, Rabobank

9 II Intensely competitive white fish processing industry Photo: Shutterstock 2018

10 Despite stable supply, the ground fish sector is often described as an intensely competitive sector Frozen product easy to store and transport Fairly commoditised products in a mature market Competition is global or at least continental Retailers quickly change from one supplier to the other Result: highly competitive sector with low margins for processors Source: Rabobank

11 but there is more to this and we need to go back 5-10 years and look at the ownership of the industry back then Branded players in white fish / seafood processing across Europe had high leverage In NW Europe most branded companies were PE owned Southern Europe dominated by one Family / listed High leverage after multiple PE owners Extreme level of (hidden) leverage Short term / cash flow focus Eventually leads to bankruptcy Focus on cost cutting to service debt Source: Rabobank

12 The high leverage was combined with intense price competition from PL suppliers Although many companies have PL products one Chinese owned company became both the dominant raw material supplier and processor of PL white fish in Europe A Chinese (also highly leveraged) company become the largest PL white fish supplier Market share gain focus to achieve scale in processing in China and sourcing in Russia Strategy: Undercut competition with low prices Result: Industry wide focus on price competition and cost cutting Source: Undercurrent, Rabobank

13 This leads to the a toxic combination which inevitably results in financial difficulties, bankruptcies and consolidation High leverage Intense price competition In time nearly all the producers in this sector experience financial difficulties, get acquired or become part of bigger groups.. This process of rationalization is not over yet Combination of focus on cost cutting i.e. lack of marketing and differentiation by branded players and a PL supplier focused on market share acquisition based on low cost product leads to a race to the bottom 13

14 III Fresh water - farmed species: declining in both EU and US Photo: Shutterstock 2018

15 The Vietnamese Pangasius industry is moving away from Europe due to a poor image (fake news) Vietnamese Pangasius Exports to China in value Million USD USA Europe China Source: VinHoan, Ground fish forum, Intrafish

16 Competition in the US market is fierce with Vietnamese Pangasius gaining market share but both species loosing volume Tilapia and Pangasius import in the US market (2017 YTD December) Million lbs % Frozen fillet prices of Tilapia and Pangasius in the US market (2018 YTD July) USD per lb % 40% 3,3 3,0 2,7 July, 18: USD3.13 The US has imposed largest ever antidumping tariffs on Pangasius fillets % 2, % 2, % 1, % 1,5 Pangasius Fz Fill Tilapia Fz Fillets Market share of Pangasius Tilapia Pangasius Source: Urner Barry, Rabobank

17 Surprisingly today China is by far the largest market for Vietnamese Pangasius Vietnamese Pangasius Exports to China in value Millions USD E Source: UN Comtrade, VASEP, Intrafish, Undercurrent, Rabobank

18 Many Tilapia and Pangasius exporters are changing focus away from EU and US due to poor image and weak margins Chinese Targets US with Frozen Tilapia fillets Dominates market with a low price product for years Rejected Tilapia products are sold in China, below cost Losing competiveness in US. New focus on RoW, domestic market and Africa? China will be in oversupply with white fish Panga initially targets EU (due t problems with US domestic catfish) EU market flooded with low cost Panga filets, but image problems hamper demand Re-focus to US, low price to acquire market share EU and US decline New focus on the Chinese market? Observation: Both tilapia and pangasius frozen fillet suppliers seem to put little emphasis on gradual market development and cooperation with local processors, but focus on supply growth, price competition and new markets development Source: Rabobank

19 IV New owners of white fish assets Photo: Shutterstock 2018

20 Firstly there are a number of salmon farming companies taking a greater role is the white fish value chain Source: Undercurrent news, Intrafish, Rabobank

21 Unlike in the ground fish sector salmon prices tend to be more responsive to supply (especially to contractions) Norwegian fresh salmon prices (left axis) and yearly global supply changes (right axis) NOK/kg 90 22,5% 80 25% 20% ,2% 15% ,0% 9,0% 4,3% 5,0% 7,2% 10% 5% ,4% -1,3% -6,7% E 0% -5% -10% Yearly % change in supply Norway whole salmon spot price (NOK/kg) Source: Fish pool, Rabobank

22 Salmon sector claims to be very customer oriented and innovative, can they replicate this in the ground fish sector? Growth of Pre-Packed salmon in Germany Million Euro % But it is also a farmed product with consistent supply, a fresh product, rich in Omega3 fats, with a consolidated supplier base Growth of Pre-Packed salmon in US Million USD % Source: Marine Harvest, Rabobank

23 Large family owned wild catch companies also enter into the European white fish value chain Source: Undercurrent news, Intrafish, Rabobank

24 And most importantly a large part of the industry is now part of listed multispecies food conglomerates Source: Undercurrent news, Intrafish, Rabobank

25 The market leader Nomad is showing that the new strategy is reversing the decline into growth Organic Revenue growth per quarter as reported by Nomad Foods 8% 6% 5,9% 5,6% 4% 3,5% 2,9% 2% 1,1% 1,3% 0% -2% -0,8% -4% -3,8% -3,3% -2,7% -6% -8% -5,4% -8,0% -7,0% -6,1% -10% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Organic Revenue Growth Source: Nomad Foods Q Rabobank

26 Although the Russian white fish companies are not new-comers they are themselves undergoing a transformation 26

27 While Pollock still mostly going to China (for re-processing) Russian exports of Cod to the EU have increased Russian Cod exports Value, per import region Russian Pollock exports Value, per import region Million USD 700 Million USD China EU Rest of the World China Rest of the World Source: UN Commtrade, Rabobank

28 Although a diverse group there are some common features of the new entrants into the whitefish processing space Highly profitable, companies with low leverage Diversified multispecies platforms e.g. salmon, wild catch species, animal proteins Or vertically integrated companies Mostly listed and family owned companies with a long term view..and many are consolidators so expect more transactions in this space Source: Rabobank

29 So what could be the new dynamics in white fish markets? Innovation / product development / marketing focus (as opposed to price and cost focus) New brands? Suppliers have a broader range of product and can become category managers and work closer with retailers Perhaps more focus on fresh products? Fewer double frozen products? Value based growth and improving profitability? Source: Rabobank

30 Contact Us Rabobank Gorjan Nikolik Senior Analyst Seafood Telephone Mobile gorjan.nikolik@rabobank.com This document is meant exclusively for you and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. ( Rabobank ), registered in Amsterdam. Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed, reproduced, or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Rabobank. The information in this document reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgement as of this date, all of which may be subject to change. This document is based on public information. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, Rabobank does not guarantee the correctness or completeness of this document, and does not accept any liability in this respect. The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any potential offers, transactions, commercial ideas, et cetera contained in this document. This document does not constitute an offer, invitation, or recommendation. This document shall not form the basis of, or cannot be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information in this document is not intended, and may not be understood, as an advice (including, without limitation, an advice within the meaning of article 1:1 and article 4:23 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act). This document is governed by Dutch law. The competent court in Amsterdam, the Netherlands has exclusive jurisdiction to settle any dispute which may arise out of, or in connection with, this document and/or any discussions or negotiations based on it. This report has been published in line with Rabobank s long-term commitment to international food and agribusiness. It is one of a series of publications undertaken by the global department of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness All Rights Reserved. 30