Impact of Climate Change on Dutchess County

Transcription

1 Impact of Climate Change on Dutchess County Vicky Kelly Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Marist College Center for Lifetime Study The Impact of the Hudson River on American History and Culture October 1, 2013

2 Outline of Lecture Brief overview of climate in Dutchess County How climate change is manifesting itself in this area Monitoring climate change in Dutchess County How climate change is altering the way we occupy the landscape Some adaptation strategies for living in a changed climate Challenges

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4 Polar Jet Stream Summer, Winter

5 Climate Change Effect on Polar Jet Stream Arctic Acceleration - faster & greater warming at north pole than mid latitudes Has caused the upper level flow of air toward the poles to slow - result is a slower jet stream A slower jet stream means more meandering (like a stream meanders when it flows slowly) Greater amplitude in Rossby Waves in jet stream Blocking patterns that remain in place longer Longer droughts, heat waves, periods of precipitation NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio Jennifer A. Francis, Stephen J. Vavrus Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 39

6 Forecast July 12, 2013 A stalled front along the East Coast will continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances to an already saturated region. Across portions of the Plains, temperatures will continue to be dangerously high, with heat indices above 100F. And further west, a slow moving cold front will bring the possibility of severe storms to the northern Plains. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

7 Forecast August 17, 2013 A stalled front stretching from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast Coast will be a focus for heavy rain this weekend into early next week, fueled by abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Soils in this region are saturated, creating a potential for flash floods. There is also potential for a tropical cyclone to form in the Gulf, but considerable uncertainty exists regarding this forecast.

8 How climate change is manifesting itself in this area Average Temperature & Precipitation

9 53 Average Temperature Poughkeepsie (F) r² =

10 Dec-Mar slope= 0.04 r² = 0.10 Poughkeepsie, NY Mean Temperature (F) June-Aug slope = 0.02 r² =

11 70 60 Precipitation Poughkeepsie (inches) r² =

12 Proportion Winter Precipitation as Snow Albany r² =

13 How Climate is Changing - Averages Increased average temperature, especially in winter More precipitation Greater proportion of winter precipitation that falls as rain Photo by E. Keller ca. 1975

14 How climate change is manifesting itself in this area Extreme Events Heat Waves Droughts Floods & Blizzards Cold Snaps

15 Marble Analogy for Extreme Events Extreme Events Average Events Before Global Warming In a Warmer World

16 Heat Waves

17 Number of Heat Waves at Cary Institute (June-August) # times max temp exceeded 90 F for 3 consecutive days

18 Number of Heat Waves Albany by Decade (June-August) # times max temp exceeded 90 F for 3 consecutive days

19 Heat Index Cary Institute 200 # hours heat index> r² = Heat Index takes into account temperature and relative humidity

20 Heat Index Cary max heat index r² =

21 Heat Waves - Summary Heat Index Increasing No change in number of heat waves

22 Droughts David McNew/Getty Images

23 Summer Droughts Precipitation Difference from Norm (mm) May July June r² = August

24 Floods

25 Wappinger Creek at Red Oaks Mill Number of floods by decade

26 Droughts & Floods Summary No change in droughts possibly fewer in June More floods The Big Thompson River rages through the washed out Loveland Water Storage Reservoir in Larimer County Colorado Saturday morning, September 14, (Photo By Andy Cross/The Denver Post)

27 Blizzards & Cold Snaps

28 Albany Snow Events > 10 inches r² = 0.22 r² = number of events>10 in. total volume Decades starting 1945, does not include event in 1954 of 101 inches.

29 Cold Snaps Cary Institute 50 Total # days maximum temperature less than 25 F r² =

30 How Climate is Changing - Extreme Events Heat Waves - Heat Index Increasing, no change in number of heat waves Droughts - No change in droughts possibly fewer in June Floods - Increasing Blizzards Number and volume of big snow events increasing Cold Snaps decreasing

31 Monitoring the weather & climate in Dutchess County

32 Cary Institute Environmental Monitoring Program USCRN USDA Soil moisture network and remote sensing Stream gauge Real-time information

33 US Climate Reference Network

34 USCRN & Other Weather Stations

35 USDA Soil Moisture Network NOAA, NASA, CREST, Cary Institute

36 NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission: Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture & Freeze/Thaw State

37 USGS Stream Gauges USGS WAPPINGER CREEK NEAR WAPPINGERS FALLS NY

38 Cary Institute Stream Gauge

39 How climate change is altering the way we occupy the landscape Flood water in a trailer park in Evans Colorado,(Photo By Tim Rasmussen/The Denver Post)

40 How climate change is altering the way we occupy the landscape Management of flood prone areas Energy reducing and using cleaner energy electricity solar initiatives, wind, natural gas, power line maintenance, demand response programs New fuel efficiency standards Regional Planning e.g., including climate change in zoning laws Emergency Management Plans preparing for extreme events

41 Flood Management FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA), Flood Mitigation Assistance Program, Property Acquisition (Buyouts) One of many forms of hazard mitigation 75% funded by FEMA Administered by the State and local communities Local communities need a Hazard Mitigation Plan

42 East Fishkill Hazard Mitigation Plan - Draft - Communities must have an approved HMP to apply for and receive Federal Mitigation Grant Funding. East Fishkill HMP Mitigation Strategy includes: regulatory and zoning standards to protect environmentally sensitive areas and manage natural hazard risk mitigation projects to public infrastructure such as bridges and culverts an ongoing program to purchase undeveloped vulnerable property to prevent inappropriate development streambank stabilization projects participation in the Fishkill Creek Watershed Association of Dutchess and Putnam Counties, which promotes regional watershed planning and mitigation. A formal, active stormwater management program

43 Solar Energy Community Empowerment through Collective Bargaining Reduced Cost - Photovoltaic installation contractors are selected through a competitive bid process; collective bargaining and group purchasing lowers the out of pocket cost to the participant by 20-30%. Community-led outreach by trusted community partners deliver a direct appeal from one friend to another to join the campaign. Collective education and bargaining provides a safe environment for customers to feel comfortable with their investment.

44 Demand Response Programs Developed by the utilities and grid operators For periods when electric grid experiences a high degree of stress, e.g., heat waves When grid instability occurs, businesses get paid to reduce electric use to help prevent blackouts or brownouts There is NO COST at any time and NO PENALTIES if you fail to reduce when called.

45 Other Energy Programs New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) NYS Energy Audit Cornell Cooperative Extension Dutchess County Save Energy Save Dollars Workshops

46 Adaptation Strategies

47 Society has three proactive options for reducing the risks associated with climate change: 1. Reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and thereby reduce the amount that climate changes (mitigation). 2. Build our capacity to cope with the climate changes that lie ahead (adaptation). 3. Manipulate the earth system in the hope of counteracting some climate effects of our emissions critically, without triggering unintended and harmful side effects (geoengineering). From: Climate in the FY 2014 Budget, Jonah V. Steinbuck and Paul A.T. Higgins, American Meteorological Society

48 Regional/Personal Adaptation Strategies Buyout properties in flood zones Protect floodplains in zoning laws Stream bank management Improving energy efficiency Alternative energy Reduce use during periods of high demand

49 Challenges Data continuation e.g., funding cuts jeopardize USGS stream gauge network Reducing GHG emissions How you can help Participate in local CAC/EMC Educate yourself Contact your County, State or US representative Support nonprofit organizations that are providing information

50 Thank You! Questions