Program Update. Relationship: RP, RTIP, Budget, POF. Board of Directors Item 16 February 22, Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

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1 Program Update Board of Directors Item 16 February 22, 2019 Relationship: RP, RTIP, Budget, POF Contains ten-year capital program budget 2 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

2 TransNet Extension Flow of Funds FY 2008 to FY % Major Corridor Capital Projects 3 Plan of Finance: Purpose and Assumptions Assesses financial capacity Short-term: Next five to seven years Long-term: Remaining years through 2048 Revenue assumptions: Funds programmed in the RTIP Revenue forecasts from existing fed, state, and local sources Cost assumptions: Short-term: Latest cost estimates for projects based on annual overall SANDAG budget and RTIP Long-term: Regional Plan cost estimates 4 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

3 Plan of Finance Ten-Year Look Back Report: 35% completed, 28% underway, 37% not yet started Ten-Year Review: Look Ahead Continually re-evaluate the portfolio of projects remaining to be completed to meet the mobility needs of the region Over the next five years, approximately $280-$300 million in TransNet and formula funds are anticipated to be available 5 TransNet Revenue Forecasts, Year of Collection (Nominal $) $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000, Forecast $288.0 $292.1 Actual $284.5 $294.5 Difference 1.2% 0.8% $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $ Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

4 Percent Change in TransNet Revenue (Nominal $) 12% 9% 6% 3.58% 3% 5.4% 2.5% 8.1% 6.5% 10.8% 7.7% 9.8% 10.2% 1.6% 4.0% 6.3% 7.2% 6.5% 1.9% 8.4% 7.1% 4.3% 5.2% 3.4% 2.5% 3.3% 3.5% 0% -3% -0.3% -1.4% -6% -3.5% -3.4% -9% -12% : 4.7% : 3.2% % -8.0% Percent Change in TransNet Revenue (Real $ - Corrected for Inflation) 12% 9% 8.64% 6% 3% 1.02% 0% 3.11% 1.05% 5.30% 4.72% 3.98% 3.79% 3.37% 0.02% 1.71% 3.54% 3.68% 3.13% 5.06% 4.90% 2.83% 3.54% 3.23% 1.72% 0.24% 1.01% -3% -6% -9% -12% -6.84% -5.99% -2.80% 2.8% Avg. 1.6% Avg % % % % Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

5 TransNet Revenue Forecast Annual Collections in 2002 Dollars (Constant $) $500,000,000 $450,000,000 $400,000,000 $350,000,000 Forecast Created TransNet Extension Passed TransNet II Collection Begins $14 Billion $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000, Actual Revenue Collected Preliminary SR10 9 TransNet Revenue Forecast Annual Collections in 2002 Dollars (Constant $) $500,000,000 $450,000,000 $400,000,000 $14 Billion (4.4M Pop) $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $9.2 Billion (4.0M Pop) $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000, Actual Revenue Collected Preliminary SR10 Current Consensus 10 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

6 TransNet Revenue Forecast Annual Revenue in Year of Collection Dollars (Nominal $) $1,700,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,300,000,000 $29.3 Billion $1,100,000,000 $900,000,000 $700,000,000 $500,000,000 $300,000,000 $18.8 Billion $100,000, Actual Revenue Collected Preliminary SR10 Current Consensus 11 TransNet Revenue Forecast Annual Revenue in Year of Collection Dollars (Nominal $) $1,700,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,300,000,000 $22.0 Billion $1,100,000,000 $900,000,000 $700,000,000 $18.8 Billion $500,000,000 $300,000,000 $13.8 Billion $100,000, Actual Revenue Collected Low Inflation Forecast Current Consensus High Inflation Forecast 12 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

7 Construction Cost Index: Actual vs. Forecast = Caltrans CCI Index (Actual) CCI Forecasts (Baseline) 13 Construction Cost Index: Actual vs. Forecast = Caltrans CCI Index (Actual) CCI Forecasts (Baseline) 14 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

8 Construction Cost Index: Actual vs. Forecast = Caltrans CCI Index (Actual) CCI Forecasts (Lower Bound) CCI Forecasts (Baseline) 15 Construction Cost Index: Actual vs. Forecast = CCI Forecasts (Baseline) CCI Forecasts (Upper Bound) CCI Forecasts (Lower Bound) 16 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

9 Construction Cost Index: Actual vs. Forecast = Caltrans CCI Index (Actual) CCI Forecasts (Lower Bound) CCI Forecasts (Baseline) CCI Forecasts (Upper Bound) Plan of Finance Summary for TransNet Major Corridors Remaining Projects Amount (Year of Expenditure $Billions) (Mid-Point of Range) COSTS Capital costs ($24B to $29.4B) $26.7 Anticipated debt service $4.5 TOTAL COSTS ($28.5B to $33.9B) $31.2 REVENUES 1. TransNet funds ( ) ($5.6B to $6.2B) $ Funds programmed in the RTIP, including grants, state and federal formula funds; anticipated debt financing proceeds; TIFIA loan proceeds $3.1 ($3.1B to $3.2B) 3. Anticipated formula funds from existing sources (RSTP, CMAQ, STIP, etc.) ($5.7B to $6.9B) $ Anticipated competitive funds from existing sources (SB1, INFRA, etc.) ($5.4B to $6.5B) $ Additional future revenues ($7.8B to $11.8B) $9.8 TOTAL REVENUES ($27.6B to $34.8B) $31.2 Leveraging Ratio (TransNet vs. Other Funds Ratio) 1:4.2 Higher Level of Certainty Lower 18 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

10 Summary of Costs and Revenues to Complete Remaining TransNet Major Corridor Projects (YOE $B) Description POF POF COSTS Capital Costs Remaining $23.1 $26.7 Anticipated Debt Service $4.8 $4.5 TOTAL COSTS $27.9 $31.2 REVENUES 1. TransNet funds for Major Corridors program through 2048 $6.2 $ Programmed grants, state, and federal funds in the RTIP $3.6 $ Anticipated formula funds from existing sources (RSTP, CMAQ, STIP, SLPP) $4.7 $ Additional competitive funds from existing sources (SB1, INFRA, Others) $5.4 $ Additional future revenues $8.0 $9.8 TOTAL REVENUES $27.9 $31.2 Leveraging Ratio (TransNet vs. Other Funds Ratio) 1:3.4 1:4.2 Level of Certainty Higher Lower Plan of Finance Summary Cost increases higher than assumed long-term growth rate Widening gap between growth rate for costs and revenues $9.8B in new funds needed to complete all projects by 2048 Current leveraging need: 1:4.2 Is this match requirement reasonable to achieve? 30-year historical leveraging ratio (1:3) brings in $2.6B by POF leveraging ratio (1:3.4) brings in $5B by 2048 Regional Plan process may result in recommendation that certain projects not be completed as originally envisioned 20 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

11 Project Status Checklist Corridor Completed In-Progress Future Project I-15 Express Lanes (52 to 78) I-15 BRT Mira Mesa BRT SR 52 Extension SR 76 Widening SR 125 Southbay Expressway Acquisition 805/54 interchange Mid-City BRT South Bay Rapid Orange Line Trolley Modernization Blue Line Trolley Modernization Superloop 21 Project Status Checklist (cont.) Corridor Completed In-Progress Future Project I-5 Express Lanes (North Coast Corridor) SR 94/125 Connector I-805 Express Lanes (905 to 54) I-805 Express Lanes (54 to 8) I-805 Express Lanes (8 to Merge) Border Access Improvements COASTER Double Tracking Mid-Coast Trolley Extension SPRINTER 22 Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

12 Project Status Checklist (cont.) Corridor Completed In-Progress Future Project I-5 South Express Lanes (905 to 8) I-5 Express Lanes (8 to Merge) I-8 Widening (2nd to Los Coches) 5/805 HOV Connectors I-15 Express Lanes (94 to 8) SR 52 Express Lanes (125 to 15) SR 54 & SR 125 Express Lanes 56 Widening and Connectors SR 67 Widening 78 Express Lanes and Connectors SR 94 (5 to 15) and Connectors SR 94 (805 to I-15) I-805 Express Lanes (Mission Valley Viaduct) Coronado Tunnel BRT from San Ysidro to Sorrento Mesa 23 Program Update Questions? Board of Directors Item 16 Feb 22,

13 San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan Proposed Action Plan Board of Directors Item 17 February 22, 2019 Proposed Action Plan and Overview of Key Milestones Ongoing Public Involvement 2 Board of Directors Item 17 February 22,

14 Risks State Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) Sustainable Communities Strategy Federal RTP and Air Quality Conformity California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) Notice of Preparation for Environmental Impact Report Ongoing Public Involvement 3 Recommendation The Board of Directors is asked to approve the proposed action plan to develop the Regional Plan. 4 Board of Directors Item 17 February 22,

15 Environmental Mitigation Program: Annual Status Report and Implementation Actions Board of Directors Item 19 February 22, 2019 TransNet Environmental Mitigation Program Large scale acquisition, management, and monitoring Reduce cost, accelerate delivery, implement habitat plans, and reduce listing of species 2 Board of Directors Item 19 February 22,

16 Transportation Mitigation Fund Accomplishments 40 sites preserved 8,780 total acres conserved, more than seven times the size of Balboa Park 800 acres of habitat restored $161 million invested in open space acquisitions $41 million leveraged from conservation partners for acquisitions Began construction of San Elijo Restoration Project Before 3 Regional Habitat Conservation Fund Accomplishments Nine cycles of Land Management grants 117 grants awarded throughout the region $16.6 million awarded with $10.1 million of matching funds leveraged 4 Board of Directors Item 19 February 22,

17 MOA Background EMP Working Group established in 2005 to provide advice on the implementation of the Environmental Mitigation Program MOA signed in 2008 by SANDAG, Caltrans, USFWS, and CDFW to implement the EMP Award winning EMP is a national model and is being used by Caltrans for statewide Advance Mitigation Program 5 Mid-Coast Case Study $2.1 billion extension Environmental clearance completed Federally endangered fairy shrimp found in rail alignment 6 Board of Directors Item 19 February 22,

18 Mid-Coast Case Study Fairy shrimp could delay $2 billion dollar Trolley expansion by a year or more 2008 SANDAG bought land as advanced mitigation April 30, 2014 SANDAG notified agencies about impacts May 6, 2014 Agencies agreed that SANDAG can mitigate with acquired land One week between notification and approval of mitigation 7 Proposed MOA Extend MOA for another ten years through 2029 Ties into next 10-Year TransNet Comprehensive Review Continue funding $4 million annually for the Regional Habitat Conservation Fund Maintains consistent level of service, can be achieved with existing cash flow Include Board actions during the first ten years as MOA attachments Places all relevant Board policy in one location Updates timing of the release of economic benefit Clarifies that additional funding would be considered after repayment of existing bond debt 8 Board of Directors Item 19 February 22,

19 Recommendation The Regional Planning and Transportation Committees recommend that the Board of Directors approve the proposed TransNet Environmental Mitigation Program Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) and authorize the Executive Director to sign the MOA on behalf of the agency, in substantially the same form as shown in Attachment 1. 9 Board of Directors Item 19 February 22,