91 Express Lanes Model Update 2006 State Route 91 Implementation Plan. Gerald V. Nielsten May 18, 2007

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1 91 Express Lanes Model Update 2006 State Route 91 Implementation Plan Gerald V. Nielsten May 18,

2 Vollmer Associates LLP is now Stantec Inc. Stantec Inc. completed the acquisition of Vollmer Associates LLP on April 2, 2007 Our 30-year history of providing toll consulting services throughout the world continues with Stantec, a global publicly traded company with more than 100 offices in North America and a significant presence in California. 2

3 Overview Historical traffic in the SR-91 corridor Traffic and gross potential revenue on the 91 Express Lanes Comparison of October 2003 forecast traffic and gross potential revenue to actual data Discussion of key changes to the 91 Express Lanes traffic and revenue model 91 Express Lanes future scenarios Forecast traffic and gross potential revenue for future scenarios 3

4 Study Area The SR-91 Corridor acts as a land-bridge connecting Orange and Riverside County. 4

5 SR-91 Historical Average Daily Traffic Corridor traffic growth has continued since , ,000 Average Daily Traffic 200, , ,000 50, Global ADT 91 Express Lanes ADT Calendar Year 5

6 91 Express Lanes Traffic Growth 91 Express Lanes traffic growth has significantly outstripped corridor traffic growth Average Daily Traffic (1997 Indexed to 1) * Global 91 Express Lanes Calendar Year * 2006 global volumes are estimated 6

7 91 Express Lanes Historical Traffic and Revenue With increasing traffic, gross potential revenue has increased at relatively high rates. $ ,000 Annual Gross Potential Revenue (millions) $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Express Lanes ADT $ Fiscal Year 0 Annual Gross Potential Revenue (millions) 91 Express Lanes ADT 7

8 91 Express Lanes Weekly Traffic and Revenue Growth in traffic and gross potential revenue occur throughout the year. Weekly Traffi c 650, , , , , , , , , , ,000 $850,000 $750,000 $650,000 $550,000 $450,000 $350,000 $250,000 $150,000 $50,000 Weekly Gross Potential Revenue 100, Week of Fiscal Year (ending June 30th) $(50,000) FY04 traffic FY05 traffic FY06 traffic FY04 revenue FY05 revenue FY06 revenue 8

9 91 Express Lanes Hourly Traffic While peak hour traffic growth have slowed somewhat, off-peak and shoulder period traffic have grown dramatically. 91 Express Lanes Hourly Volume 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, :00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM Hour Beginning '99 EB '00 EB '01 EB '02 EB '03 EB '04 EB '05 EB '06 EB '99 WB '00 WB '01 WB '02 WB '03 WB '04 WB '05 WB '06 WB 9

10 91 Express Lanes Eastbound Wednesday Tolls Peak hour tolls have increased following the Toll Policy. $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 Toll Charged $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $ :00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM Hour Beginning Orig Apr-98 Mar-00 Nov-03 Oct-04 Aug-05 Jan-07 10

11 91 Express Lanes Traffic & Revenue: October 2003 Projection vs. Actual The increasing non-peak traffic growth and higher than projected toll rates have pushed traffic and revenue above projections. 600, ,000 $800, ,000 $700,000 Weekly Traffic 450, , , , , ,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Potential Revenu e 150,000 $200,000 Jun-06 Mar-06 Dec-05 Sep-05 Jun-05 Mar-05 Dec-04 Sep-04 Jun-04 Mar-04 Dec-03 Sep-03 Jun-03 Week Beginning Projected Traffic Projected Revenue Actual Traffic Actual Revenue 11

12 91 Express Lanes Projected Tolls vs. Actual Tolls Toll rates have increased faster than projected. $3.00 $2.90 $2.80 $2.70 Average Toll $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 Apr-06 Jan-06 Oct-05 Jul-05 Apr-05 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 Apr-04 Jan-04 Oct-03 Jul-03 Projected Avg Toll Actual Avg Toll 12

13 Traffic and Revenue Model: Market Share Curves Market share curves have been rebuilt to reflect the higher than anticipated acceptance of the 91 Express Lanes. 35% 30% 25% Market Share 20% 15% 10% Data 5% Original Curve Updated Curve 0% Global v/c 13

14 Traffic and Revenue Model: Hourly Traffic Profile Global (general purpose and 91 Express Lanes) daily traffic has been redistributed to reflect higher non-peak period demand. 9% 8% 7% % of Total Traffic 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 12:00 AM 3:00 AM 6:00 AM 9:00 AM 12:00 PM 3:00 PM 6:00 PM 9:00 PM Hour Beginning EB - Original EB - Update WB - Original WB - Update 14

15 91 Express Lanes Current Configuration The SR-91 corridor consists of the 91 Express Lanes, HOV-3+ lanes east of the County Line, and congested general purpose lanes. SR-55 Costa Mesa SR-241 ETC Orange County Riverside County I-15 Corona SR-71 Chino Valley 15

16 91 Express Lanes Proposed Configurations: Baseline Scenario by 2025 The 2006 State Route 91 Implementation Plan would add one general purpose lane per direction to SR-91 between SR-55 and I-15. The Baseline scenario would leave the 91 Express Lanes unchanged. SR-55 Costa Mesa SR-241 ETC Orange County Riverside County I-15 Corona SR-71 Chino Valley 16

17 91 Express Lanes Proposed Configurations: Scenario 2 Extension as Reversible Express Lanes Scenario 2 assumes that the 91 Express Lanes will be extended from the County Line to I-15 as reversible express lanes. The extension will operate westbound in the morning and eastbound in the afternoon. SR-55 Costa Mesa SR-241 ETC Orange County Riverside County I-15 Corona SR-71 Chino Valley 17

18 91 Express Lanes Proposed Configurations: Scenario 3 Extension as Full Express Lanes Scenario 3 assumes that the 91 Express Lanes are extended into Riverside County as two-lane per direction express lanes. The proposed 91 Express Lanes connection with SR-241 scheduled for year 2030 creates a lane imbalance. SR-55 Costa Mesa SR-71 Chino Valley SR-241 ETC Orange County Riverside County I-15 Corona 18

19 91 Express Lanes Proposed Configurations: Scenario 3b Extension as Full Express Lanes with Ramps to SR-71 Scenario 3b eliminates the lane imbalance by allowing 91 Express Lanes motorists to access SR-71. SR-55 Costa Mesa SR-241 ETC Orange County Riverside County I-15 Corona SR-71 Chino Valley 19

20 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Gross Potential Revenue Projections: Baseline Scenario Traffic and gross potential revenue declines in years 2011, 2015, and 2020 because general purpose lane improvements reduce corridor congestion. $ ,000 Annual Gross Potential Revenue (millions) $110.0 $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $ ,000 60,000 45,000 30,000 15, Express Lanes ADT $ Fiscal Year 0 Annual Gross Potential Revenue (millions) 91 Express Lanes ADT 20

21 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Gross Potential Revenue Projections: Scenario 2 - Extension as Reversible Express Lanes Building reversible express lanes in Riverside County is projected to result in 91 Express Lanes gross potential revenue 0.5% lower than under the baseline scenario. $ ,000 $110.0 Annual Gross Potential Revenue (millions) $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $ ,000 60,000 45,000 30,000 15, Express Lanes ADT $10.0 $ Fiscal Year Baseline Gross Potential Annual Revenue (millions) Baseline 91 Express Lanes ADT 21 Scen. 2 Gross Potential Annual Revenue (millions) Scen Express Lanes ADT 0

22 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Gross Potential Revenue Projections: Scenario 3 Extension as Full Express Lanes with Connection to SR-241 Scenario 3 is not operationally feasible because of the lane imbalance between SR-241 and SR-71. $ ,000 $110.0 Annual Gross Potential Revenue (millions) $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $ ,000 60,000 45,000 30,000 15, Express Lanes ADT $10.0 $ Fiscal Year Baseline Gross Potential Annual Revenue (millions) Baseline 91 Express Lanes ADT 22 Scen. 3 Gross Potential Annual Revenue (millions) Scen Express Lanes ADT 0

23 91 Express Lanes Traffic and Gross Potential Revenue Projections: Scenario 3b Extension as Full Express Lanes with Connection to SR-241 and SR-71 Building full express lanes in Riverside County is projected to result in 91 Express Lanes gross potential revenue that is 0.9% higher than under the baseline scenario. $ ,000 $110.0 Annual Gross Potential Revenue (millions) $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $ ,000 60,000 45,000 30,000 15, Express Lanes ADT $10.0 $ Fiscal Year 0 Baseline Gross Potential Annual Revenue (millions) Baseline 91 Express Lanes ADT Scen. 3b Gross Potential Annual Revenue (millions) Scen. 3b 91 Express Lanes ADT 23