Real Estate Forecast & Builder Expo. Real Estate Forecast & Builder Expo 2018 Loveland, CO
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1 2018 Real Estate Forecast & Builder Expo
2 Brandon Wells President
3
4 2017 Forecast Results Northern Colorado Home Sales 98.5% Accuracy
5 2017 Market Results Fort Collins 6% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
6 2017 Market Results Loveland 9% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
7 2017 Market Results Windsor / Severance 11% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
8 2017 Market Results Greeley / Evans 10% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
9 2017 Market Results Timnath 12% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
10 2017 Market Results Berthoud -3% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
11 2017 Market Results Wellington 3% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
12 2017 Market Results Ault / Eaton / Johnstown / Kersey / LaSalle / Mead / Milliken 9% Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
13 W el lin gt on d Be r th ou th Ti m na y G re e le v Se W in d/ la ve Lo Fo rt C ol nd lin s 2017 Market Results
14 2018 Market Forecast 5% 9% 3% 8% Fort Collins Timnath Loveland Windsor Greeley Wellington Berthoud Severance Evans Average Sales Price - Attached / Detached
15 2018 Forecast Northern Colorado Home Sales Supply?
16 Top 6 Stories Northern Colorado Real Estate 2018
17 Story #1 Northern Colorado Employment
18 Story #1 Larimer Co. Employment
19 Story #1 Larimer Co. Employment Larimer: Dec 2016 = 180, % (Unem.) Larimer: Dec 2017 = 194, % (Unem.)
20 Story #1 Weld Co. Employment
21 Story #1 Weld Co. Employment Weld: Dec = 148, % (Unem.) Weld: Dec = 155, % (Unem.)
22 Story #1 Northern Colorado Employment Larimer Dec Dec.17 = +14,043 Weld Dec Dec.17 = +6,920 20,963 Jobs
23 Larimer & Weld Colorado 20,963 Jobs 53,200 Jobs 2017
24 Story #1 Northern Colorado Employment 20,963 Jobs 53,200 Jobs Total
25
26
27 Story # 2 Tale of Two Markets
28 Story # 2 Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets 6 Months Sellers Buyers
29 Story # 2 Fort Collins: < $400,000 Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets 6 Months Sellers Months of Inventory Buyers 10
30 Story # 2 Fort Collins: $400,000 - $700, Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets 6 Months Months of Inventory 10 Sellers Buyers
31 Story # 2 Fort Collins: $700,000 - Over Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets Months Months of Inventory 10 Sellers Buyers
32 Story # 2 Loveland/Berthoud: < $400,000 Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets 6 Months Sellers Months of Inventory Buyers 10
33 Story # 2 Loveland/Berthoud: $400,000 - $700,000 Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets 6 Months Months of Inventory 10 Sellers Buyers
34 Story # 2 Loveland/Berthoud: $700,000 - Over Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets Months Months of Inventory 10 Sellers Buyers
35 Story # 2 Greeley: < $300,000 Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets 6 Months Months of Inventory Sellers Buyers
36 Story # 2 Greeley: $300,000 - $500,000 Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets 6 Months Months of Inventory 10 Sellers Buyers
37 Story # 2 Greeley: $500,000 - Over Balanced Market Tale of Two Markets Months Months of Inventory 10 Sellers Buyers
38
39 Story #3 Healthy Stabilization
40 Story #3 Healthy Stabilization
41
42 30% Annual Appreciation - Fort Collins / Loveland Home Price Index 24% 21.4% Average 5.25% 18% 16.0% 12% 8.8% 13.5% 12.4% 8.5% 10.6% 8.0% 9.1% 7.9% 12.1% 10.3% 8.4% 6% 0% 6.2% 5.1% 1.1% 2.3% 3.8% -1.9% 3.2% -0.3% 4.5% 3.5% 6.6% 5.6% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 5.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% -0.6% -1.1% -2.3% 1.3% 1.0% -6% -4.0%
43 Annual Appreciation - Fort Collins / Loveland Home Price Index
44 13% 8% 5.85% 5.11% 7.84% Annual Appreciation - Greeley Home Price Index 11.94% 12.93% 8.41% 6.20% 5.70% 5.22% 5.34% 9.30% 8.86% 5.13% Average 3.81% 12.48% 11.87% 11.06% 7.22% 3% 3.22% 1.30% 1.71% 3.07% 1.70% 2.85% -2% -0.82% -0.82% -1.78% -0.14% -1.35% -4.52% -7% -6.72% -6.82% -9.20% -12%
45 Annual Appreciation - Greeley Home Price Index
46
47 Story #4 Interest Rates
48 Story #3 10 Year Treasury Rates - Yield
49 Story #4 Interest Rates
50 Story #4 Interest Rates
51 Story #4 Interest Rates 4.5 % Lawrence Yun Chief Economist National Association of Realtors
52 Story #4 New Home Construction
53 Fort Collins Wellington VDL 7-9 MONTHS INVENTORY Severance VDL 319 VDL Loveland Greeley VDL VDL Berthoud 369 VDL Windsor 477 VDL VDL - Vacant Developed Lots
54 Fort Collins Wellington Future Future Severance 1605 Future Loveland Greeley Future Future Berthoud 3938 Windsor 4650 Future Future
55 EAST
56 Story #5 Lifestyle, Development, & Growth
57 Montava Confluence The Exchange Myridium Staybridge Suites Mixed Us Mazda Hughes Fairfield Harmony RM Sports Park Severance HS The Foundry Brands at The Ranch I-25 / 34 (Sheels) UCHealth
58 Story #5 Family and Communities
59
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64 Story #6 The Boulder Benchmark
65 The Boulder Benchmark Northern Colorado Comparison Same Builder: Wheeler Construction Same Houses Same Time: Late 50 s Early 60 s Greeley, Fort Collins, Boulder
66 Greeley, Colorado $235,000 ($223/sq.ft.) The Boulder Benchmark Northern Colorado Comparison th Avenue 1053 square feet Sold Date: 7/27/17
67 Fort Collins, Colorado $365,000 ($353/sq. ft.) The Boulder Benchmark Northern Colorado Comparison 2316 Purdue Rd square feet Sold Date: 12/27/17
68 Boulder, Colorado $640,000 ($578/sq. ft.) The Boulder Benchmark Northern Colorado Comparison 745 S. 41st St square feet Sold Date: 11/20/17
69 Thank You
70 To receive all materials from tonight and Text Forecast to Be entered to WIN An Amazon Echo Show or A RingPro Doorbell* *Courtesy of:
71 2018 Real Estate Forecast & Builder Expo
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