NEARLY PERFECT IN NFL WEEK RUN IN NFL KEY SELECTIONS THE LAST TWO WEEKS

Transcription

1 THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVII Issue 23 December 18, 2017 $12.00 NEARLY PERFECT IN NFL WEEK RUN IN NFL KEY SELECTIONS THE LAST TWO WEEKS NFL WEEK 15 Close Calls Philadelphia Eagles (-7) 34, New York Giants 29 (41): The Eagles overcame an early 20-7 deficit helped by a few big special teams play while also scoring a touchdown after the game s only turnover by the Giants. Philadelphia briefly passed the road favorite spread with a edge but the Giants answered, although missing on the two-point conversion trying to tie the game late in the third quarter. On their next possession the Giants missed a field goal and the Eagles burned more than seven minutes of game clock, eventually reaching 1st-and-goal. The Giants held the Eagles to a 20-yard field goal to stay within the spread even though they were unable to score in the final minute for the upset, reaching the Philadelphia 6-yard-line. Carolina Panthers (-3) 31, Green Bay Packers 24 (46½): The Panthers trailed at halftime but managed to deliver back-to-back touchdown drives in the third quarter, leading and then eventually early in the fourth quarter. The Packers failed on downs from the Carolina 30-yard-line with under six minutes remaining but found the end zone just after the three-minute mark to get within seven. The Packers recovered the on-side kick and had a new set of downs at the two-minutewarning from the Carolina 38-yard-line. Aaron Rodgers hit Geronimo Allison for a nice gain but shortly after the catch he was hit with the ball coming out and recovered by Carolina. The ruling on the field was a catch and fumble and that held up on a very close replay review as the Panthers held on. Buffalo Bills (-3½) 24, Miami Dolphins 16 (40): The Bills used turnovers to build a 24-6 lead through three quarters but Miami was a late threat sparked by a big punt return. The Dolphins climbed to within 11 at the eight-minute-mark and reached the Buffalo 8-yard-line in the final minute of the game. Had Miami found the end zone a potential two-point conversion try would loom large on the pointspread result but the Dolphins opted to kick a field goal with 39 seconds remaining facing 4th-and-3. That kick put the total at 40, even with the common number on the game. The Dolphins had some hope for miracle late score to force overtime or at least cover the spread as they recovered the on-side kick but on 1st down Jay Cutler was intercepted to end the threat. New Orleans Saints (-16) 31, New York Jets 19 (47): The Jets trailed through three quarters as the underdog and under were in a promising position. The Saints seemingly put the game away with a touchdown halfway through the fourth quarter to lead by 11 but the Jets were able to find the end zone just after the two-minute warning trailing just after missing going for two. That touchdown secured the heavy underdog cover but the under had little margin for error remaining. The on-side kick failed and the Jets had just one timeout remaining. On 2nd down Mark Ingram broke loose for a 50-yard touchdown run to send the game over with just over a minute remaining with the Saints one first down away from taking a knee. Washington Redskins (-4½) 20, Arizona Cardinals 15 (40): Offense was limited on both sides of this game as Arizona chipped away at an early 14-3 Washington lead with field goals. By the fourth quarter Washington led but Arizona climbed within the underdog spread with a fifth field goal of the game early in the fourth quarter. After trading punts Washington managed a field goal of its own to lead again by five with the total in danger of being eclipsed with a touchdown in the final four minutes. After another exchange of punts Arizona got the ball back near midfield and got a huge pass interference call for a 3rd down conversion in the final minute. The game came down to a 4th down play from the Washington 21-yard-line with Blaine Gabbert ending the game with five consecutive incomplete passes as Washington and the under held on. Baltimore Ravens (-6½) 27, Cleveland Browns 10 (42½): The Ravens led just at halftime on a spread that dropped from -9 to just -6½ by kickoff. In the third quarter Baltimore s defense got a fumble recovery in the end zone after a sack and then added a field goal after the Browns failed going for it on 4th-and-1. The over looked promising with 37 points through three quarters on a total that was as low as 40 early in the week. Cleveland looked ready to clear the total with a scoring opportunity with more than 11 minutes remaining but on 3rd-and-5 from the six-yard-line DeShone Kizer threw an egregious interception in the end zone for a touchback. Baltimore managed to burn off much of the clock and the Browns punted on their next possession. The Ravens got the ball back with about five minutes to go and picked up three first downs. The Ravens would have likely kicked a field goal just after the two-minute-warning but an encroachment penalty gave Baltimore a fresh set of downs. Cleveland still had a timeout in its pocket and could have forced the Ravens to either kick a field goal or turn the ball back over to Cleveland but instead they allowed the Ravens to take a knee without stopping the clock to keep the game just under with a scoreless fourth quarter. New England Patriots (-2½) 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24 (53): The Steelers had an eight-point lead heading into the fourth quarter with the total still in play with 40 points through three frames. An exchange of punts burned the first half of the fourth quarter continue at Between the Lines... For the next 48 hours all NFL commentary will focus on the catch rule and discuss what should constitute a catch or recommend actions to clarify the rules. The NFL brass will sit back and enjoy the attention after a NFL Sunday that featured drama that couldn t have been scripted any better. The confusing rules and vague language is good for business, it helps keeps the games compelling and gives everyone plenty to talk about. Gene Steratore s grin Sunday night after using paper to measure a first down in the Sunday night game sums it up best, the players and games are all real, but the NFL is certainly a show. In that telecast Cris Collinsworth alluded to the irony of playing a game miles from one of the world s technology epicenters yet using hand-held clunky first down markers to decide plays that determine results but having precise instruments and perfect officiating would be much less compelling TV. Now try handicapping this game The opening bowl Saturday featured 26 combined turnovers in five games between teams that certainly looked questionably deserving of being in the postseason. Four of five underdogs won outright and the team that produced the rushing edge won all five games. Five of the next eight games feature a spread of 6 or higher as some more significant upsets are possible. On the closing lines the Week 15 NFL picks went as favorites have been on a great run the last six weeks in pro football. This week s schedule will feature spreads of 7 or higher in possible nine of 16 games as there are several teams with something to play for going up against teams that have been eliminated. Last season Week 16 favorites wound up 9-7 ATS but the over was the clear winner at 12/3. After under leaning results the past two weeks (5/10/1 in Week 14 and 6/8/1 so far in Week 15) in the NFL some numbers could be adjusted lower this week with at least nine totals likely to be below 45. The Ravens will be a heavy home favorite the final two weeks of the season as they will likely wind up in the AFC playoff field despite being dead last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. The league is designed to favor top passing teams and the top five teams in that measure are all playoff-bound teams. There is only one losing team among the top 11 in the NFL in yards per attempt (Washington) but the Ravens ability to create turnovers has allowed them to compete. Baltimore is +17 on the season but in six separate games the Ravens have had an edge of +3 or greater including in four of the last five games. Baltimore has also scored seven non-offensive touchdowns this season. The Browns are in a category by themselves on the other end of the spectrum, -25 in turnovers on the season and zero times in 14 games has Cleveland had a positive turnover margin while being -2 or worse nine different times. The Browns have plenty of ammunition to fuel a quick turnaround loaded with draft picks and young talent but shaking the losing attitude and perception will be challenge. With a timeout in hand the Browns didn t even force Baltimore to run a 4th down play at the end of the game last week simply conceding yet another defeat. Run defense in contrast hasn t been a signifier of success this season as Cleveland leads the NFL in yards per carry allowed at just 3.3. Minnesota, Philadelphia and possibly Tennessee will be the only NFL playoff teams currently in the top 10 in yards per carry allowed. Trailing most of the time in games will lead to more rushes against you to skew the numbers. The five worst teams in yards per carry allowed in the NFL are a combined Washington is again the lone outlier as the only losing team in the bottom 10. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. VIOLATORS WILL FACE AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THEIR SUBSCRIPTION. Copyright 2017 All rights reserved. Nelly s Sportsline is a registered trademark.

2 NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS RATING 5 TOLEDO (-7½) over Appalachian State RATING 4 ARMY (+6½) over San Diego State RATING 3 OKLAHOMA STATE (-4) over Virginia Tech RATING 2 NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+4½) over Duke RATING 1 SOUTHERN MISS (+16½) over Florida State SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2017 BIRMINGHAM BOWL At Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama South Florida (-2½) Texas Tech (68) 11:00 AM Texas Tech (6-6) was able to notch a bowl berth with a win at Texas on Nov. 24. After starting the season strong, winning their first three games, the Red Raiders went 3-6 the rest of the season, finishing eighth in the Big 12 Conference. Kliff Kingsbury s team is solid offensively, scoring more than 34 points per game. Defensively, however, is another story as the Red Raiders allow nearly 32 points per game, ranking 96th in the nation. Junior QB Nic Shimonek has thrown 30 touchdown passes with eight interceptions while passing for more than 3,500 yards. Shimonek has put together a fine season with wide receiver Keke Coutee his main target. Coutee hauled in 82 passes during the regular season for 1,255 yards and nine touchdowns. Leading rusher Justin Stockton (694 yards, five TDs) is listed as probable after experiencing concussion-like symptoms. On defense, linebacker Dakota Allen has piled up 92 tackles. The Red Raiders don t have much of a pass rush, but defensive linemen Tony Jones and Eli Howard have combined for 8.5 sacks this season. South Florida finished its regular season 9-2, with close losses to Houston and undefeated Central Florida. The Bulls Sept. 9 game against UConn was cancelled. After three rough seasons in Texas, Charlie Strong delivered a solid first season at USF though expectations were even higher. The Bulls come into the bowl game scoring more than 38 points per game, ranking 15th nationally. On defense, South Florida allowed about 22 points per contest. Dynamic QB Quinton Flowers has passed for 2,600 yards with 21 TDs and six interceptions, while rushing for 970 yards and 10 TDs. Combined with running backs D Ernest Johnson and Darius Tice, the backfield trio has rushed for 2,595 yards this fall. As expected, the Bulls don t throw often, but 6-foot-5 target Marquez Valdez-Scantling comes into the game with 50 receptions for more than 700 yards. South Florida has an active defense with 18 interceptions. Cornerback Devin Abraham leads the way with four. Defensive tackle Bruce Hector provides a pass rush with seven sacks this season. South Florida has clear edges in the ground game while makes the slight favorite alluring even with the very weak schedule faced by the Bulls this season. In three games at Texas for Strong his teams scored 124 points against the Red Raiders. USF BY 7 LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL At Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas San Diego State (-6½) Army (45½) 2:30 PM While most bowl teams have had a few weeks off, Army enters the Armed Forces Bowl riding high after nipping Navy Dec. 9. The Black Knights finished the regular season 9-3 under Jeff Monken but more importantly claimed the Commander-in-Chief s Trophy for the first time since Army has a stout defense that allows less than 21 points per game, good for 28th in the nation. QB Ahmad Bradshaw has led the triple-option attack, rushing for 1,566 yards and 12 TDs. RB Darnell Woolfolk also has 12 TDs with more than 700 yards on the ground. Defensively, defensive back/linebacker Alex Auckerman has six sacks, along with 14.5 tackles for loss. Linebacker James Nachtigal has five sacks and leads the team with 98 tackles. San Diego State (10-2) hit a rough patch in October, with consecutive losses to Boise State and Fresno State. The Aztecs rebounded by winning their final four regularseason games, all by comfortable margins. Offensively, Rocky Long s squad is paced by senior RB Rashaad Penny, one of the nation s leading rushers. Penny finished with 2,027 yards and 21 TDs. He was voted the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year and finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy race. Backfield mate Juwan Washington was also impressive with more than 700 yards rushing and seven scores. With Penny leading the charge, San Diego State doesn t pass often, but QB Christian Chapman threw 13 TD passes this fall. WR Micah Holder hauled in 43 receptions for 602 yards. Long s team boasts one of the top 15 defenses in the country, allowing just 18 points per game. It s a unit that has forced seven fumbles and 13 interceptions. Ronley Lakalaka has 68 tackles, including 8.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. San Diego State needed a late score for a win over Air Force who plays a similar style to Army. For the Aztecs falling short of the MWC title is a disappointment and this is a bowl opportunity that likely brings more enthusiasm for the Knights who will be well supported in Texas and features one the nation s most experienced teams. ARMY BY 2 DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL At Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama Toledo (-7½) Appalachian State (62) 6:00 PM Appalachian State had two questionable losses, falling to Massachusetts and Louisiana-Monroe, but still finished the regular season with a strong 9-4 mark. The Mountaineers were balanced with success on both offense and defense, finishing 33rd in the nation for both categories. QB Taylor Lamb passed for 2,606 yards with 27 TDs and six interceptions, while also rushing for more than 500 yards. RB Jalin Moore had close to 1,000 yards rushing with 10 scores. Wide receiver Ike Lewis hauled in 47 receptions for 666 yards and eight TDs. The Mountaineers will be without their leading pass rusher as Antonious Sims (9.5 sacks) will miss the game with a triceps injury. Toledo had a strong season in the MAC West Division, finishing with an overall record of 11-2 after winning the MAC Championship for the first time since The Rockets are led by a highly productive offense, averaging nearly 40 points per game, 11th best in the nation. QB Logan Woodside has passed for more than 3,700 yards with 28 TDs and only five interceptions. The Rockets also have 14 interceptions on defense but have been vulnerable against the run. This is a rare bowl rematch as Appalachian State beat Toledo in the Camellia Bowl last December with a big edge on the ground but the Rockets improved while Appalachian State took a small step back this season. Renewing Jason Candle s contract in Toledo keeps momentum with the Rockets program and the ground disparity of last season is unlikely to repeat this season. TOLEDO BY 16 SUNDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2017 HAWAI I BOWL At Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawai i Houston (-2½) Fresno State (49½) Houston finished 7-4 in coach Major Applewhite s first full season leading the Cougars. Houston s most impressive win was a road victory over South Florida in late October. The Cougars mostly kept the ball on the ground this season as Duke Catalon led the way with more than 600 yards rushing and nine TDs. After starting QB Kyle Postma struggled, the Cougars went to backup D Eriq King full time and the sophomore gave Houston a shot in the arm. King tossed six TDs with just one interception and rushed for 341 yards and 10 TDs this season. Wide receivers Linell Bonner and Steven Dunbar combined for 1,732 yards receiving with seven touchdowns but Bonner is listed as questionable for the bowl game. The Cougar defense is formidable allowing only 23 points per contest despite facing several top offensive teams. Linebacker D Juan Hines has been all over the field, posting 104 tackles while DT Ed Oliver is a top NFL prospect. Fresno State rebounded from early-season losses to Alabama and Washington to deliver an amazing turnaround season behind Jeff Tedford. QB Marcus McMaryion passed for 2,384 yards and 14 TDs in his first season after transferring from Oregon State. KeeSean Johnson was McMaryion s favorite target, hauling in 69 passes for 918 yards and eight scores. The Bulldogs have a productive ground game but the defense was Fresno State s backbone this fall. The Bulldogs allowed just 17 points per game, ninth nationally. Linebacker Jeffrey Allison had 113 tackles and two sacks. In addition, Malik Forrester and Tobenna Okeke combined for 10 sacks. Fresno s familiarity with the trip could help, winning in this stadium in November. FRESNO BY 3 TUESDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2017 ZAXBY S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL At Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas Utah (-7) West Virginia (57) 12:30 PM Utah took a step back this season, but still managed to finish 6-6 and clinch another bowl berth under coach Kyle Whittingham. The veteran coach is 10-1 in bowl games since taking over the Utes program in Utah s offense enters the Heart of Dallas Bowl averaging more than 29 points per game. QB Tyler Huntley has thrown 15 TDs and 10 interceptions for 2,246 yards. WR Darren Carrington had 66 receptions for 918 yards and six TDs during the season. RB Zack Moss rushed for 1,023 yards and nine touchdowns. Huntley, with more than 400 yards rushing, also poses a rushing threat. On defense, the Utes gave up about 24 points per game but statistically this was Whittingham s worst defense in several years. West Virginia had notable wins over Texas Tech and Iowa State, but lost its final two games. Dana Holgorsen s team will be missing two key stars for the bowl game. RB Justin Crawford, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and seven TDs, has decided to skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, QB Will Grier, who passed for 3,490 yards and 34 TDs, is doubtful with a finger injury. The drop-off to Chris Chugunov at QB is severe but the long layoff can help the cause. WR Gary Jennings who had 94 receptions for 1,030 yards but only one TD. Defensively, West Virginia is led by hard-charging linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton who has 102 tackles, 13 for loss, along with three sacks but unit allowed 6.3 yards per play. This spread is certainly out of line with the season numbers and Holgorsen should have a game plan to keep the Mountaineers in this game. UTAH BY 4

3 QUICK LANE BOWL At Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan Duke (-4½) Northern Illinois (47½) 4:15 PM Northern Illinois posted an 8-4 record in coach Rod Carey s sixth season, bouncing back from a down year. Carey has a.657 winning percentage at NIU but is 0-4 in bowl game appearances. The Huskies have been dogged by more than a touchdown in three of those games however as this is better opportunity. NIU has one of the best run defense in the nation allowing only 2.8 yards per rush and all four losses came vs. bowl teams by 10 or fewer points. QB Marcus Childers took most of the snaps, throwing for 1,445 yards and 15 TDs. Childers also rushed for 459 yards. LB/DE Sutton Smith terrorized QBs this fall, posting 14 sacks. Smith also had 29 tackles for loss, along with three forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. Duke finished 6-6 this season upsetting Georgia Tech and Wake Forest in the final two games to return to the postseason. The Blue Devils will enter their fifth bowl game since David Cutcliffe took over the program in Duke s offense took a big step back last season as QB Daniel Jones threw 12 TDs, but also 11 interceptions. Running backs Shaun Wilson and Brittain Brown combined for more than 1,300 yards but Duke gains just 4.1 yards per carry. On defense, the Blue Devils are led by LB Joe Giles-Harris who has 117 tackles (15 for loss) and 3.5 sacks. CB Mark Gilbert intercepted six passes during the season and DT Mike Ramsey comes into the game with 5.5 sacks but Duke has average numbers against the run and the Blue Devils were outrushed in five of the final six games of the season. A ground edge for the underdog playing in a familiar nearby venue is appealing. NIU BY 3 CACTUS BOWL At Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona Kansas State (-2½) Ucla (64½) Kansas State won four of its final five games to finish 7-5 and reach another bowl game under veteran coach Bill Snyder. Next week s Cactus Bowl will be Snyder s 19th bowl appearance (8-10). The Wildcats will be without QB Jesse Ertz who is out with a knee injury. However, freshman Skylar Thompson has played well late in the season, tossing two TD passes against Iowa State on Nov. 25. Thompson rallied K-State for a last-second win, showing his ability to win under pressure. In the backfield, running back Alex Barnes rushed for 702 yards and six TDs this fall. K-State has the ability to produce points, averaging 32 per game. Defensively, LB Jayd Kirby had 93 tackles, 10.5 for loss and four sacks this season. K-State has forced 11 fumbles. UCLA (6-6) can salvage a disappointing season with a bowl victory. The Bruins fired coach Jim Mora and won their regular-season finale under interim coach Jedd Fisch. With QB Josh Rosen at the helm, the Bruins had a productive offense, scoring nearly 34 points per game. However, the defense was dreadful, ranking 118 th nationally in points allowed per game. Rosen, who passed for 3,717 yards and 26 TDs, injured his shoulder in the Bruin s last game Nov. 24 against California but expects to start in the bowl game. UCLA was bit by the injury bug this season to fail to meet expectations but the hiring of Chip Kelly keeps enthusiasm high around the future of the program even with Rosen s departure forthcoming. The UCLA coaching situation isn t ideal as Fisch has been courted by Missouri and Kansas State a sentimental choice with a ground edge likely. K-STATE BY 4 WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2017 WALK ON S INDEPENDENCE BOWL At Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana Florida State (-16½) Southern Miss (49) 12:30 PM It took scheduling a non-conference game during championship week but the nation s longest bowl streak continues as Florida State heads to the Independence Bowl. The ACC is just 2-4 in this bowl the past seven years though winning the past two seasons. A season that started with national title aspirations will end at either 7-6 or 6-7 for the Seminoles with the team going through a major transformation with Jimbo Fisher leaving and Willie Taggert hired from Oregon to take over the program. Southern Miss finished behind North Texas and UAB in the C-USA West standings but quietly went 8-4 to reach a third straight bowl game and second in a row under Jay Hopson. The per play statistics side with the underdog with both defense allowing fewer than 5.0 yards per play but Southern Miss much more productive offensively, albeit though a much softer schedule as well. Longtime FSU assistant Odell Haggins will coach the team in bowl action after leading the team in the season finale win over Louisiana-Monroe. The injury report for the Seminoles is lengthy with several players question marks for this game particularly on defense and it seems likely that the enthusiasm for this opportunity will be greater for the underdog playing a reasonable drive away. Florida State has scored only 26.7 points per game this season while Southern Miss has allowed only 23.0 points per game. The Seminoles didn t cover in a game until mid-november but enter this game coming off three ATS wins in a row pushing this price to among the highest spreads of the bowl season. Southern Miss played right with Kentucky early in the season and playing close games with Mississippi State and Nebraska last season in major conference opportunities. FLORIDA STATE BY 10 NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL At Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York Iowa (-3) Boston College (46) 4:15 PM Boston College has an opportunity to pick up wins at both Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium this season with the Eagles streaking into this game on an ATS run since late September. Iowa had one of the biggest wins of the season with a blowout win over Ohio State, an upset that played a big role in costing the Big Ten a College Football Playoff spot. Both teams finished 7-5 but Iowa was reliant on a home field edge with five wins coming in Iowa City. Iowa is known for its offensive line and rushing attack but the Hawkeyes were actually out-rushed in six of nine Big Ten games. The Eagles gained a reputation for a formidable pass rush this season but the success mirrored the ground game, out-rushing all nine foes on the great late season ATS run that included wins over Louisville and Florida State. The season numbers say that Boston College is allowing 5.0 yards per rush however as Iowa wound up with much better defensive numbers against the run for the season. Iowa has lost five consecutive bowl games and the defeats the past three years have been lopsided double-digit results with the Hawkeyes scoring only 15 points per game in the last five bowl games under Kirk Ferentz. Boston College was a bowl winner last season vs. the Big Ten and the Eagles lost in overtime in this bowl game three seasons ago. Iowa played its best against top competition also beating Iowa State and losing competitive games against Penn State and Michigan State but ultimately went just 4-5 in Big Ten games, three times scoring 45 or more points but six times held below 20 points in Big Ten play for erratic results. BC BY 3 ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL At NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas Missouri (-2½) Texas (60½) Following a 1-5 start to the season with only a FCS win Missouri engineered a great turnaround with six consecutive wins to close the season. Junior quarterback Drew Lock leads the nation with 43 touchdown passes and the Tigers are back in a bowl game after a two-year absence. Missouri draw former Big XII foe Texas in an appealing bowl draw, though the game is in the state of Texas. Tom Herman didn t provide the instant turnaround that some expected at Texas but the Longhorns are back in the postseason and most of the losses were very competitive games against quality teams. Texas only allowed 182 points in nine Big XII games but the defense will be tested in this matchup. Missouri won 17-5 the last time these teams met late in the 2011 season in Columbia and the Tigers have posted 1.9 more yards per play compared with Texas. The Longhorns have a severe edge on defense but the best results for Texas have been against the run, allowing only 3.0 yards per carry on the season. The secondary for Texas is in a dangerous spot with P.J. Locke a question mark to play and DeShon Elliott opting to skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. Missouri s late season run did come against marginal competition but the Tigers scored at least 45 points in all six wins and scoring 28 against Georgia in the team s last loss now looks pretty respectable. Texas averaged 29 points per game this season but was held to 28 or fewer points seven times this season as the offense will be hard to trust to trade scores. Ultimately this game should be a bigger draw for the Tigers as the oddsmakers have rightly shaded the price even with the team losing OC Josh Heupel to UCF. MISSOURI BY 4 FOSTER FARMS BOWL At Levi s Stadium in Santa Clara, California Arizona (-4) Purdue (65) The Boilermakers returning to a bowl game for the first time since 2012 has been a great story and Purdue got a big win this December by keeping Jeff Brohm around after a strong first season in West Lafayette. Purdue closed the season with wins over Iowa and Indiana to claim this spot and early in the season beat Missouri on the road as well as playing close with Louisville. This matchup brings a difficult challenge for the defense as Arizona was one of the nation s top rushing teams. While the Wildcats lost the final two games of the regular season to slip to 7-5 it was a season of redemption for Rich Rodriguez following a disappointing season. Khalil Tate emerged as a star rushing for 10.2 yards per carry out of the quarterback position but Arizona s defense surrendered nearly 39 points per game in Pac-12 play. Purdue has won both meetings between these programs in 2003 and 2005 and this will be an offense vs. defense matchup with Arizona posting 7.1 yards per play on offense but Purdue allowing only 5.2 yards per play on defense. Purdue surrendered only 3.6 yards per rush this season and strong performances against several ground-heavy foes in Big Ten play were encouraging. The 7-point loss to Louisville also offers some promise for Purdue in this matchup vs. an electric mobile quarterback but the Boilermakers were soundly out-gained in that contest and caught turnover breaks. Arizona won two of its Pac-12 games by three of fewer points as it wasn t far from another disappointing season while not playing Washington or Stanford for a huge break in the conference schedule. Purdue also avoided the top Big Ten East foes but did face the best West teams on the road in Big Ten play. There is a natural location edge for Arizona but Purdue has the potential to keep this game close. ARIZONA BY 1

4 THURSDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2017 MILITARY BOWL At Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland NAVY (-1½) Virginia (55) 12:30 PM This is a true home game for Navy in the bowl season with the Midshipmen winning this bowl game two years ago. Navy has covered in four bowl games in a row under Ken Niumatalolo and the opportunity to face a nearby ACC squad should be appealing for the program. After going 2-10 last season, rising to a bowl bid this season was a nice result for Bronco Mendenhall in his second season in Charlottesville. These teams met regularly in the early 90s with mostly Virginia blowout wins but this is the first meeting since Virginia closed the season with losses in five of the final six games with only a narrow home win over Georgia Tech in the second half of the season. Virginia has been out-rushed in nine of the last ten games and a rushing edge is all but assured for the home underdog in this matchup with Virginia averaging 99 yards per game compared to 343 rushing yards per game on average for Navy. Virginia does have a prolific passing attack behind senior quarterback Kurt Benkert who has thrown for over 3,000 yards but on below 60 percent completions and with eight interceptions. Virginia was outscored by 74 points in ACC play and the Cavaliers and only a win at Boise State stands out as an impressive result with all three ACC wins coming by a single-score. Navy has lost six of the last seven games but all six foes are in a bowl games and 10 points was the largest margin of defeat. Losing competitive games with UCF and Memphis looked even better by season s end and the spread on this game rightly flipped. NAVY BY 7 CAMPING WORLD BOWL At Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida Oklahoma State (-4) Virginia Tech (63) 4:15 PM Another solid season for Oklahoma State will conclude in Orlando with the Cowboys looking to win 10 games for the sixth time in eight years. It was once again a season Oklahoma State couldn t get over the top for a conference and national title run and Mike Gundy was even courted to possibly exit Stillwater. This will be the final game for a highly productive career for quarterback Mason Rudolph, who passed Brandon Weeden as the team s all-time leading passer. Oklahoma State averaged 46 points per game this season but allowed 39 or more points in four of the final five games of the season. The best win of the season came narrowly at Iowa State as the Cowboys fell short against the top two teams in the conference in double-digit defeats and the non-conference schedule proved light. Oklahoma State has alternated bowl wins and losses the last four years, actually playing as an underdog the past three seasons. A 7-1 start for Virginia Tech came unraveled in Miami but at 9-3 the Hokies have a shot at a second 10-win season in two years under Justin Fuente. Virginia Tech did beat West Virginia from the Big XII to start the season but the Hokies were soundly out-gained in that contest. The Hokies allowed only 13.5 points per game on the season to fit the program s defensive reputation but three times in ACC play Virginia Tech allowed 28 or more points and a few dominant performances skewed the overall numbers. Known for its passing attack Oklahoma State also rushed for 4.8 yards per carry and 187 yards per game. The Cowboys also own a respectable run defense despite some of the high scoring games and the experience edge at QB should prevail. OK ST BY 10 ALAMO BOWL At Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas Tcu (-2½) Stanford (49) This is a challenging matchup for Stanford as TCU features one of the best run defenses in the nation, surrendering just 2.9 yards per rush. TCU couldn t keep pace with Oklahoma but enjoyed an impressive season though three times winning in Big XII play while being out-gained. Stanford has a great rushing attack that posted 6.0 yards per rush on the season but the Stanford defense was the worst in David Shaw s tenure. The Cardinal allowed nearly 400 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush this season. Stanford found better results since turning to K.J. Costello at quarterback and the receiving corps for the Cardinal offers a difficult matchup with impressive size. TCU posted over 66 percent completions this season on 7.9 yards per attempt as this was an explosive passing attack with an offense that offered excellent balance. TCU s pass defense also impressed holding foes to just 52 percent completions on the season with really only the Heisman Trophy winner having consistent success. Five Big XII foes were held to 14 or fewer points by TCU and this is a big game for a veteran team that lost its bowl game last season and will get to play in the state of Texas as the crowd should certainly be purple-leaning. TCU won this bowl game as an underdog two years ago and Gary Patterson is 9-6 S/U in his bowl appearances. Shaw is 4-2 in bowl games though losing in the only instance not playing as the favorite. After being in a major bowl four of the last six seasons this isn t an overly alluring draw for a team coming off a painful Pac-12 championship loss but the Cardinal are a difficult team to fade getting points, 12-3 ATS under Shaw with an impressive big game track record. STANFORD BY 3 SAN DIEGO CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL At SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California Washington State (-2) Michigan State (45½) Going from 3-9 to 9-3 is a nice turnaround but after greatly underachieving last season Michigan State perhaps overachieved this season. The Spartans lost badly against Ohio State and Notre Dame and caught some good fortune to beat Penn State. Narrow wins over several mediocre Big Ten teams padded the results but the offense was very limited, posting only 5.0 yards per play on the season. Known for its defense the Spartans had quality numbers but Washington State had similar defensive marks on the season despite the contrast in the perception of these teams. After getting blasted in the finale at Washington on the ground in a game that cost the team a spot in the Pac-12 championship the defense should be focused in preparation for this matchup. All three losses for Washington State came by at least 21 points in lopsided results but Michigan State hasn t shown great scoring potential to pull away in this type of game. Washington State had several big late rallies this season and is never out of a game with Luke Falk throwing 534 times this season for 30 touchdowns. After a bowl loss last season vs. the Big Ten as a double-digit favorite this figures to be a big game for Mike Leach and company playing on the west coast. This is first bowl game for Michigan State since a 38-0 loss to Alabama in the College Football Playoffs in 2015 with the Spartans winning four bowl games in a row prior to that result, albeit by a combined nine points. MSU BY 1 HISTORICALLY SPEAKING NCAA TRENDS: Trends are Against the Spread unless noted (S/U): Texas Tech is as a single-digit dog since 06 So. Florida is as a fav. since 10 Army is 8-4 the last 12 as an underdog San Diego State is 3-1 the last four bowl games Appalachian State is 4-2 the last 6 as a 7+ dog Toledo is as a favorite since 15 Houston is 5-12 the last 17 as a favorite Fresno State is 12-1 the last 13 as a dog Utah is 13-5 in bowls since 92 West Virginia is 5-20 in bowls since 82 Northern Illinois is as an underdog since 01 Duke is 1-5 S/U in bowls since 89 Kansas State is 2-9 in bowl since 01 UCLA is as an underdog since 09 Southern Miss is 1-4 the last 5 bowls Florida State is in bowls since 81 Boston College is as a dog since 13 Iowa is 1-4 in bowls since 11 Missouri is 2-10 S/U vs. Texas since 82 Texas is the last 15 as an underdog Purdue is 1-5 in bowls since 03 Arizona is 1-5 in bowl since 09 Virginia is as a R/F since 95 Navy is 11-4 in bowls since 81 Va Tech is as a dog since 98 Oklahoma St is as a 0-10 fav. since 96 Stanford is 8-3 in bowls since 96 TCU is 2-6 in bowls since 08 Michigan St is as a dog since 11 Washington State is as a 0-10 fav. since 03 Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO North Texas Troy Georgia State Western Kentucky Oregon Boise State Marshall Colorado State Mid Tennessee St Arkansas State OVER/UNDERs OF THE WEEK OVER 49 Stanford vs. TCU By a significant margin this has been David Shaw s worst statistical defense in his seven seasons at Stanford. The Cardinal allowed 20 points per game in 2016 but allowed 20 or more points nine times this season. This is an elite rushing offense and while the Cardinal complete few passes, big plays are common, averaging 13.4 yards per completion the past four games. In two games Oklahoma rushed for 418 yards against TCU s top run defense as the numbers were built early in the season. UNDER 57 Utah vs. West Virginia West Virginia played in several high scoring games this season but without its top two offensive players the game plan could change dramatically. In the final four games West Virginia averaged just 23 points per game and Utah allowed just over 23 points per game on the season with stingy pass defense numbers. Neither team runs the ball that well and Utah has allowed just 62 points in the past three bowl appearances. SYSTEM OF THE WEEK PLAY AGAINST: Any college football bowl favorite of more than 3 points that has lost its previous two games S/U , 67.6% since 1982 PLAY AGAINST: Ohio, Arizona, Michigan

5 NFL KEY SELECTIONS RATING 5 SAN FRANCISCO (+4½) over Jacksonville RATING 4 PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Oakland RATING 3 CINCINNATI (+5) over Detroit RATING 2 LA CHARGERS (-7) over NY Jets RATING 1 BUFFALO (+11½) over New England Times in CENTRAL TIME, Home teams in CAPS, lines subject to change SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2017 BALTIMORE (-13½) Indianapolis (41½) 3:30 PM The Colts managed barely 200 yards in losing a fifth straight game last Thursday, though Indianapolis led 40 minutes into the game hosting the Broncos. Five losses for the 3-11 Colts have come by a single-score as the team looks ahead to what could be an interesting off-season with a possible coaching change and possible surgery ahead for Andrew Luck after a lost 2017 season. There is certainly history between these fan bases with the Colts leaving Baltimore after the 1983 season but the Colts have had a clear edge in the recent history of this series. The stakes are much higher for Baltimore in a crowded AFC wild card picture. The Ravens will be favored at home in the final two games but nothing can be assumed with Baltimore still posting some of the worst offensive numbers in the league. A NFL best +17 turnover margin boosts the Ravens but Baltimore hasn t been this big of a favorite since 2014, going 3-10 the last 13 instances when laying 10 or more points. Expect the Colts to continue to compete. RAVENS BY 10 Minnesota (NL) GREEN BAY Aaron Rodgers was injured in Week 6 in Minneapolis on a contentious hit from Anthony Barr as this NFC North rivalry will feature some extra intensity. The Vikings have locked up the division title but still has work to do looking to lock up a bye week in the NFC playoff picture. Green Bay s long shot playoff hopes will extinguish if Atlanta wins the Week 15 Monday night game. It seems likely that Green Bay would turn back to Brett Hundley for the final two weeks. Rodgers looked the part at times last week and nearly led the comeback but did have three interceptions. Minnesota isn t the same team on the road and this will also be the first cold weather game for the team. Even with little at stake the Packers will be up for this game and Minnesota could be a bit flat after an emotional win last week, now back on the road for the fourth time in five weeks and on a short week. Green Bay hasn t been a home underdog in this series since 2000 and they haven t lost ATS to Minnesota as a home underdog since PACKERS BY 3 SUNDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2017 Detroit (-5) CINCINNATI (43) The Lions grabbed an early lead for a change last week hosting Chicago, moving to 8-6 and still in the NFC postseason mix despite being held below 300 yards, with Matthew Stafford having his fewest passing yards in the past nine games. The Lions defense came up with three interceptions and winning this road finale can set-up a meaningful Week 17 game with the Packers back at Ford Field depending on how the rest of the NFC picture shapes out. Marvin Lewis announced that this will be his final season coaching the Bengals last week and this will be his final home game, finishing the season with the team. Cincinnati wasn t far from having a much stronger season with four losses by four or fewer points on the season. Last week s performance was among the worst of the season with only eight first downs and 161 net yards for the offense. The last two road wins for the Lions came by just three points each vs. losing teams and Cincinnati should provide a proper send-off for Lewis who had a very successful run in Cincinnati after taking over a disastrous team. BENGALS BY 2 LA Chargers (-7) NY JETS (42½) Everything was lined up for the Chargers to make a run to the AFC West title but the four-game winning streak was snapped with the division now in control of the Chiefs. The Chargers are still a wild card threat in what could be a crowded group of potential 9-7 teams with a tiebreaker over the Bills in hand if necessary. Los Angeles will face a second straight road game with losses in three of the last four road games however and the wins on the run back to contention warranted some skepticism. The Jets have had a competitive season but now out of the running and down to an unproven quarterback facing the Los Angeles pass rush could be an issue. New York closes the season at New England next week but the home finale isn t likely to offer a major boost though the players appear to be supporting Todd Bowles in what has been a more competitive season than most expected. Bryce Petty and the Jets competed well last week in New Orleans but the passing game has been very limited without Josh McCown and New York was out-gained soundly despite the close game. The Chargers lack a great road favorite track record but could bounce back. CHARGERS BY 13 LA Rams (-6½) TENNESSEE (48½) Statement game would be an understatement as the Rams crushed the Seahawks in Seattle last week to take hold of the NFC West. The Rams look unlikely to be able to move up to a top two spot in NFC however and the team only had 352 yards despite 42 points last week catching huge breaks in field position as they didn t have a scoring drive longer than 47 yards. The Titans have dropped back-to-back games to losing teams but both defeats came on the road and the home/road splits are severe for Tennessee. Now one of three 8-6 teams fighting for two spots with the 7-7 Chargers also a threat, the season could fall apart for the Titans. Next week Tennessee hosts Jacksonville for a tough draw as this is a critical game. A let down is possible for Los Angeles in a tricky letdown spot though certainly the case for Tennessee is a shaky one statistically. RAMS BY 6 CHICAGO (-6½) Cleveland (38½) Mitchell Trubisky looked like a rookie last week with three interceptions at Detroit. This is the home finale for the Bears who finish the season in Minnesota next week and while the Bears have little to play for; avoiding a loss to the Browns should carry some motivation. Chicago s defense has been mostly effective in home games but laying a touchdown with a 4-10 team that has lost six of the last seven games is a great risk. The Browns are now -25 in turnovers on the season, something that just can t be overcome. Hue Jackson publicly criticized his quarterback after last week s loss and while Cleveland doesn t look like an 0-14 in several areas this might not be the best opportunity and the team could give a better effort next week in Pittsburgh, in a game that might not matter for the Steelers. BEARS BY 7 CAROLINA (NL) Tampa Bay The Buccaneers faced a big Monday night home date with the Falcons, now drawing a difficult road game on a short week. In week eight in Tampa the Panthers won 17-3 led by their defense as Carolina managed only 254 total yards. Jameis Winston had three turnovers in that game as the Buccaneers fell short despite holding Carolina to only 4.0 yards per play. Tampa Bay won in Charlotte last season as a 6-point underdog and the offense has been productive since Winston s return. The Panthers are 10-4 but following a big win over the Packers and with a huge contest in Atlanta next week this is a game that could get overlooked. Carolina has had commanding leads the last two weeks only to barely hold on to home wins as there are some concerns for this squad. For the Buccaneers the road finale in a lost season on a short week is far from ideal. PANTHERS BY 10 NEW ORLEANS (NL) Atlanta The Saints led Atlanta heading into the fourth quarter in Week 14 but wound up losing in a contentious finish. That loss likely cost the Saints a realistic shot at a top two seed in the NFC and has New Orleans still in a tight battle for division supremacy. New Orleans wasn t sharp last week in a narrow win over the Jets but this game should bring out the team s best. Atlanta is on the road for a second straight week following Monday s game in Tampa. A win in that game would mean wins in five of six for the Falcons, sitting as the last team in the NFC playoff picture. After allowing 45 points in a home loss in this matchup last season this is a critical game for New Orleans though the Saints haven t exactly dominated in recent weeks with a 3-2 run with close wins since blasting the Bills SAINTS BY 10 WASHINGTON (-3½) Denver (41) In a lost season Denver picked up a Thursday win last week in Indianapolis to reach a respectable 5-9 with back-to-back victories. Brock Osweiler had a redemptive performance with his best game since the Super Bowl season for the Broncos two years ago. Washington held on for a narrow win hosting Arizona last week. Washington managed only 218 yards of offense but didn t allow a touchdown on defense. Denver s two-game winning streak has come against two of the AFC s worst teams and a Broncos team that has battled turnover issues all season now is in a fourth road game in five weeks facing a competitive defense. Washington s beat-up offensive line is a concern but Washington won and covered at home last week as a larger favorite against a more successful Cardinals team as the 8-game S/U and ATS slide where the Broncos were outscored by over 16 points per game isn t erased by beating the Jets and the Colts. REDSKINS BY 7 KANSAS CITY (-10) Miami (44) The Chiefs delivered in Saturday s huge game with the Chargers to take a commanding lead in the AFC West. The Chiefs will win the division with one more victory and winning this week to be able to rest against Denver s formidable defense on the road next week seems appealing. The Chiefs were caught in a tight game most of the way against the Chargers and were handed four turnovers as this still isn t the team that showed up in September. Miami was in a tough situation last week going on the road on a short week after a huge home upset over the Patriots. The offense has been better under Jay Cutler but a familiar three-interception line was the final result last week and Miami scored 10 points in the final eight minutes to make for a more competitive final score than they deserved. The Chiefs have delivered in huge home games vs. division foes the past two weeks although Kansas City has scored just 20 points per game the last six weeks. Alex Smith is still the league s NFL QB Rating leader. CHIEFS BY 13