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1 Post Harvest Special Grain Market Outlook and Strategies for Jacksonville & Terre Haute Presented by: Joseph Aiello 12/06-07/13
2 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. This material should be construed as the solicitation of an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the derivative(s) noted in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be legal. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Roach Ag. Marketing designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag. Marketing.
3 Money Flow has been Negative Grains
4
5 Into harvest; specs net long just 14,689 contracts 800, , , , , , , , , , ,000 CBOT Grains - COT - Futures Only Non-Commercial Net Position Number Of Contracts The Hightow er Report Source: CFTC Max: 760,115 (2/8/2011) - Min: -234,365 (2/8/2005) - Most Recent: 14,689 (10/15/2013)
6 Speculators still net long 86,784 contracts late into harvest
7 Record net short into heart of harvest
8 SOYBEANS
9 1992/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Soybeans Total Use Source: USDA WASDE
10 1992/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Soybeans Production Source: USDA WASDE
11 Source: USDA WASDE
12 2004/ / / / / / / / / /14 Days of Supply World Soybeans Ending Stocks Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE
13 Million Bushels US Soybean Production Source: USDA WASDE
14 Million Bushels US Soybean Production Source: USDA WASDE
15
16 Source: FCStone, LLC.
17 Why China Needs Beans Source: USDA, Martell Crop Projections
18 Why China Needs Beans Source: USDA, Martell Crop Projections
19 Days of Supply 80 U.S. bean ending US Soybean Ending stocks Stocks growing but Days of Supply will be tight Source: USDA WASDE
20 January 2014 Soybeans Source: Futuresource
21 Soybean Outlook In late August the weather was nearly ideal for lateplanted corn and soybeans. Since August 26th December Corn has declined 16.1%, while January Soybeans have fallen just 9.8%. January Soybean selling resistance comes in at $13.20, with $12.60 as support. If January Soybeans follow the path of December Corn, additional support points will come in at $12.40 and $12.00
22 CORN
23 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Coarse Grain Total Use Source: USDA
24 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Coarse Grain Production Source: USDA WASDE
25 Source: USDA NASS
26 1960/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2014 Million Tons U.S. and Foreign Corn Exports 90 United States Foreign Source: USDA PSD
27 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Days of Supply 90.0 World Coarse Grains Ending Stocks Days of Supply World coarse grain supplies still tight Source: USDA WASDE
28 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Corn Production Source: USDA WASDE
29
30 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Corn Exports Source: USDA WASDE
31 Source: FCStone, LLC.
32 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels Corn Used for Ethanol Source: USDA WASDE
33 Ethanol Stocks (Million Barrels) Source: EIA; Grind Rate: 2.75
34 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Corn and DDG Feed Usage Source: USDA WASDE
35 1, , U.S. DDG Exports (thousand tons) Yr Avg YTD Exports: +30% than 5-yr Avg 17% above last year Source: USDA FAS
36 2013 Top 5 DDG Export Destinations Rank Country % of Total 1 China 41.0% 2 Mexico 13.5% 3 Canada 5.7% 4 South Korea 4.3% 5 Vietnam 4.3% Source: USDA FAS
37 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Days of Supply Stocks will be tighter than currently estimated due to smaller crop / bigger usage US Corn Ending Stocks Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE
38 March 2014 Corn Source: Futuresource
39 CORN OUTLOOK Corn yields of bushel per acre are priced in market Keep in mind that if China were to replace just 1% of their holdings of US Treasuries with corn for their reserves, this would amount to 73.1 million tonnes (2.88 billion bushels). Safety net of crop insurance is lower. Dec corn remains in a downtrend for now. Will weather stay quiet, it could but not probable. New crop lows should be in by early Readjust profit expectations.
40 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Wheat Total Usage Source: USDA
41 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Wheat Production Source: USDA WASDE
42 Source: USDA NASS
43 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Days of supply World Wheat World wheat stocks tightening Ending Stocks in Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE
44 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/ /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Wheat Production Source: USDA WASDE
45 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/ /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Wheat Exports Million Bushels Source: USDA WASDE
46 Source: FCStone, LLC
47 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/ /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Days of Supply US Wheat Ending Stocks Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE
48 March 2014 Chicago Wheat Source: Futuresource
49 How Should U.S. Farmers Market Their Crops in
50 The Roach Ag Plan $8.00 $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 Sell New Crop Corn Buy Puts on Balance Buy calls on sold grain in buy signals Sell Balance of Old Crop Repeat New Crop Strategy $5.00 $4.50 Don't Sell Here! Reownership $4.00 Mar Apr May Jun Oct Nov Mar Apr May Jun Oct Nov Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
51 Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year Best Prices Usually Occur in March to June Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
52 Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal
53 December 2009 Corn Sales
54 December 2010 Corn Sales
55 December 2011 Corn Sales
56 December 2012 Corn Sales
57 December 2013 Corn Sales
58 November 2010 Bean Sales
59 November 2011 Bean Sales
60 November 2012 Bean Sales
61 November 2013 Bean Sales
62 Average Corn Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow -- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
63 Average Corn Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow -- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
64 Average Soybean Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year-- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
65 Average Soybean Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year-- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
66 Average Chicago Wheat Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow-- Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YR AVG Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
67 Average Chicago Wheat Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow-- Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YR AVG Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
68 Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level / farm profits
69 Basic Market Plan Farm Name: Phone: Date: Account #: Unpriced grain Old Crop # of sell signals Bushels to sell per sell signal in spring of '13 Approximate bushels to sell per day for 5 days 2012 Corn Beans Wheat Acres Expected Yield 2013 Production New Crop Plan to Forward Price Bushels already sold Bushels to Sell Spring of '13 # of Sell Signals Bushels to Sell Per Sell Signal in Spring of ' Corn 0 50% Beans 0 50% Wheat 0 50% Approximate Bushels To Sell per Day Put Options Unsold Bushels Estimated Number of Sell Signals Put Contracts to buy per Sell Signal Total Contracts 2013 Corn Beans Wheat Notes: Call Options Sold Bushels Estimated Number of Buy Signals Call Contracts to buy per Buy Signal Total Contracts 2013 Corn Beans Wheat Roach Ag Marketing Roach Ag Marketing
70 Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop with room for upside in yields.
71 Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cashflow from harvest through February
72 Take Away s Price plateau has changed for corn New crop is weather and whether it stays quiet or not US farmer will continue to dominate corn production The safety net for crop insurance is lower Link profits and peaks (Your yield forecast X price) Cover aggressive sales with calls Protect stored grain with puts Look out to 2015 this summer.
73 Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 568 East Yamato Road Suite 200 Boca Raton, FL
74 Weekly Ethanol Corn Grind (Million Bu) USDA Est Source: EIA; Grind Rate: 2.75
75 Source: FCStone, LLC
76 Source: FCStone, LLC
77 Source: FCStone, LLC
78 Source: FCStone, LLC
79
80 4/1/2005 7/1/ /1/2005 1/1/2006 4/1/2006 7/1/ /1/2006 1/1/2007 4/1/2007 7/1/ /1/2007 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 Ethanol Exports vs Price $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $- Price Exports Source: USDA FAS, Futuresource
81 Brazil Soybeans
82 Brazil Soybeans Source: NOAA
83 Argentina Soybeans
84 Argentina Soybeans Source: NOAA
85 Source: NOAA
86 Source: NOAA
87 Source: Martell Crop Projections
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