Jacksonville & Terre Haute

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Jacksonville & Terre Haute"

Transcription

1 Post Harvest Special Grain Market Outlook and Strategies for Jacksonville & Terre Haute Presented by: Joseph Aiello 12/06-07/13

2 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. This material should be construed as the solicitation of an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the derivative(s) noted in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be legal. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Roach Ag. Marketing designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag. Marketing.

3 Money Flow has been Negative Grains

4

5 Into harvest; specs net long just 14,689 contracts 800, , , , , , , , , , ,000 CBOT Grains - COT - Futures Only Non-Commercial Net Position Number Of Contracts The Hightow er Report Source: CFTC Max: 760,115 (2/8/2011) - Min: -234,365 (2/8/2005) - Most Recent: 14,689 (10/15/2013)

6 Speculators still net long 86,784 contracts late into harvest

7 Record net short into heart of harvest

8 SOYBEANS

9 1992/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Soybeans Total Use Source: USDA WASDE

10 1992/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Soybeans Production Source: USDA WASDE

11 Source: USDA WASDE

12 2004/ / / / / / / / / /14 Days of Supply World Soybeans Ending Stocks Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE

13 Million Bushels US Soybean Production Source: USDA WASDE

14 Million Bushels US Soybean Production Source: USDA WASDE

15

16 Source: FCStone, LLC.

17 Why China Needs Beans Source: USDA, Martell Crop Projections

18 Why China Needs Beans Source: USDA, Martell Crop Projections

19 Days of Supply 80 U.S. bean ending US Soybean Ending stocks Stocks growing but Days of Supply will be tight Source: USDA WASDE

20 January 2014 Soybeans Source: Futuresource

21 Soybean Outlook In late August the weather was nearly ideal for lateplanted corn and soybeans. Since August 26th December Corn has declined 16.1%, while January Soybeans have fallen just 9.8%. January Soybean selling resistance comes in at $13.20, with $12.60 as support. If January Soybeans follow the path of December Corn, additional support points will come in at $12.40 and $12.00

22 CORN

23 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Coarse Grain Total Use Source: USDA

24 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Coarse Grain Production Source: USDA WASDE

25 Source: USDA NASS

26 1960/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2014 Million Tons U.S. and Foreign Corn Exports 90 United States Foreign Source: USDA PSD

27 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Days of Supply 90.0 World Coarse Grains Ending Stocks Days of Supply World coarse grain supplies still tight Source: USDA WASDE

28 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Corn Production Source: USDA WASDE

29

30 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Corn Exports Source: USDA WASDE

31 Source: FCStone, LLC.

32 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels Corn Used for Ethanol Source: USDA WASDE

33 Ethanol Stocks (Million Barrels) Source: EIA; Grind Rate: 2.75

34 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Corn and DDG Feed Usage Source: USDA WASDE

35 1, , U.S. DDG Exports (thousand tons) Yr Avg YTD Exports: +30% than 5-yr Avg 17% above last year Source: USDA FAS

36 2013 Top 5 DDG Export Destinations Rank Country % of Total 1 China 41.0% 2 Mexico 13.5% 3 Canada 5.7% 4 South Korea 4.3% 5 Vietnam 4.3% Source: USDA FAS

37 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Days of Supply Stocks will be tighter than currently estimated due to smaller crop / bigger usage US Corn Ending Stocks Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE

38 March 2014 Corn Source: Futuresource

39 CORN OUTLOOK Corn yields of bushel per acre are priced in market Keep in mind that if China were to replace just 1% of their holdings of US Treasuries with corn for their reserves, this would amount to 73.1 million tonnes (2.88 billion bushels). Safety net of crop insurance is lower. Dec corn remains in a downtrend for now. Will weather stay quiet, it could but not probable. New crop lows should be in by early Readjust profit expectations.

40 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Wheat Total Usage Source: USDA

41 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Million Tons World Wheat Production Source: USDA WASDE

42 Source: USDA NASS

43 1991/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Days of supply World Wheat World wheat stocks tightening Ending Stocks in Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE

44 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/ /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Wheat Production Source: USDA WASDE

45 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/ /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels US Wheat Exports Million Bushels Source: USDA WASDE

46 Source: FCStone, LLC

47 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/ /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Days of Supply US Wheat Ending Stocks Days of Supply Source: USDA WASDE

48 March 2014 Chicago Wheat Source: Futuresource

49 How Should U.S. Farmers Market Their Crops in

50 The Roach Ag Plan $8.00 $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 Sell New Crop Corn Buy Puts on Balance Buy calls on sold grain in buy signals Sell Balance of Old Crop Repeat New Crop Strategy $5.00 $4.50 Don't Sell Here! Reownership $4.00 Mar Apr May Jun Oct Nov Mar Apr May Jun Oct Nov Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

51 Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year Best Prices Usually Occur in March to June Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

52 Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal

53 December 2009 Corn Sales

54 December 2010 Corn Sales

55 December 2011 Corn Sales

56 December 2012 Corn Sales

57 December 2013 Corn Sales

58 November 2010 Bean Sales

59 November 2011 Bean Sales

60 November 2012 Bean Sales

61 November 2013 Bean Sales

62 Average Corn Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow -- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

63 Average Corn Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow -- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

64 Average Soybean Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year-- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

65 Average Soybean Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year-- Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YR AVG Avoid Sept and Oct Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

66 Average Chicago Wheat Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow-- Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YR AVG Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

67 Average Chicago Wheat Futures Price - Front Month -- Highest Priced Months of the Year in Yellow-- Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YR AVG Source: Futuresource, CBOT Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

68 Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level / farm profits

69 Basic Market Plan Farm Name: Phone: Date: Account #: Unpriced grain Old Crop # of sell signals Bushels to sell per sell signal in spring of '13 Approximate bushels to sell per day for 5 days 2012 Corn Beans Wheat Acres Expected Yield 2013 Production New Crop Plan to Forward Price Bushels already sold Bushels to Sell Spring of '13 # of Sell Signals Bushels to Sell Per Sell Signal in Spring of ' Corn 0 50% Beans 0 50% Wheat 0 50% Approximate Bushels To Sell per Day Put Options Unsold Bushels Estimated Number of Sell Signals Put Contracts to buy per Sell Signal Total Contracts 2013 Corn Beans Wheat Notes: Call Options Sold Bushels Estimated Number of Buy Signals Call Contracts to buy per Buy Signal Total Contracts 2013 Corn Beans Wheat Roach Ag Marketing Roach Ag Marketing

70 Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop with room for upside in yields.

71 Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cashflow from harvest through February

72 Take Away s Price plateau has changed for corn New crop is weather and whether it stays quiet or not US farmer will continue to dominate corn production The safety net for crop insurance is lower Link profits and peaks (Your yield forecast X price) Cover aggressive sales with calls Protect stored grain with puts Look out to 2015 this summer.

73 Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 568 East Yamato Road Suite 200 Boca Raton, FL

74 Weekly Ethanol Corn Grind (Million Bu) USDA Est Source: EIA; Grind Rate: 2.75

75 Source: FCStone, LLC

76 Source: FCStone, LLC

77 Source: FCStone, LLC

78 Source: FCStone, LLC

79

80 4/1/2005 7/1/ /1/2005 1/1/2006 4/1/2006 7/1/ /1/2006 1/1/2007 4/1/2007 7/1/ /1/2007 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 Ethanol Exports vs Price $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $- Price Exports Source: USDA FAS, Futuresource

81 Brazil Soybeans

82 Brazil Soybeans Source: NOAA

83 Argentina Soybeans

84 Argentina Soybeans Source: NOAA

85 Source: NOAA

86 Source: NOAA

87 Source: Martell Crop Projections

Grain Market Outlook and Marketing Strategies Presented By: Brian Roach

Grain Market Outlook and Marketing Strategies Presented By: Brian Roach Grain Market Outlook and Marketing Strategies Presented By: Brian Roach Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should

More information

2017/18 Corn Outlook

2017/18 Corn Outlook 217/18 Corn Outlook 217 Ag Econ In service Training Dr. S. Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/pages/cropeconomics.aspx

More information

2018 Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook KY and TN Grain Conference

2018 Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook KY and TN Grain Conference 2018 Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook KY and TN Grain Conference S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

More information

2017/18 Soybean Outlook

2017/18 Soybean Outlook 217/18 Soybean Outlook 217 Ag Econ In service Training Dr. S. Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/pages/cropeconomics.aspx

More information

Corn Outlook. February, 2018

Corn Outlook. February, 2018 Corn Outlook February, 2018 Corn Outlook February 2018 Historical Price Reference Fundamental Backdrop Seasonal Tendency Summary 2 Historical Price Reference Where are Corn Prices Currently, And Where

More information

Corn Outlook. December, 2017

Corn Outlook. December, 2017 Corn Outlook December, 2017 Corn Outlook December, 2017 Historical Price Reference Fundamental Backdrop Seasonal Tendency Summary Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 2 Historical Price Reference Where are Corn

More information

USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 3 rd Ukrainian Grain Congress 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service 202-694-5288 ewallen@ers.usda.gov U.S. Producer Prices Are High

More information

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE. Rob Johansson Acting Chief Economist 19 February 2015

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE. Rob Johansson Acting Chief Economist 19 February 2015 OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Rob Johansson Acting Chief Economist 19 February 2015 Fig 1 Next boost to productivity: Big Data? Index: 1948 = 1.0 $million (2006 dollars) 3.0 $12,000 2.5 2.0 $R&D Output Input

More information

Swine Market Outlook

Swine Market Outlook 2018 IOWA PORK REGIONAL CONFERENCES NASHUA, CARROLL, LE MARS, & WASHINGTON, IA FEBRUARY 19-22, 2018 Swine Market Outlook Lee Schulz, Department of Economics, Iowa State University (515) 294-3356; lschulz@iastate.edu

More information

Cattle and Beef Markets: Short and Long Run Challenges and Opportunities

Cattle and Beef Markets: Short and Long Run Challenges and Opportunities Cattle and Beef Markets: Short and Long Run Challenges and Opportunities Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University Major

More information

Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead?

Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead? Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead? Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist wdzhang@iastate.edu 515-294-2536 April 4 th, 2017 The new Mike Duffy since Aug 2015 30

More information

BMO Capital Markets 2014 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York. May 21, 2014

BMO Capital Markets 2014 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York. May 21, 2014 0 BMO Capital Markets 2014 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York May 21, 2014 1 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial

More information

Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference

Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

More information

Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference

Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

More information

Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead?

Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead? Iowa Farmland Market Update: What s Ahead? Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist wdzhang@iastate.edu 515-294-2536 Ag Credit School, June 14 th, 2017 The new Mike Duffy

More information

Presentation from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017

Presentation from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017 Presentation from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017 United States Department of Agriculture 93 rd Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum A New Horizon: The Future of Agriculture February 23-24, 2017

More information

Iowa Land Values. Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist

Iowa Land Values. Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist Iowa Land Values Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist wdzhang@iastate.edu 515-294-2536 2017 U.S. Bank Ag Summit, Ames, IA, January 10 th, 2017 The new Mike Duffy 30 29

More information

Land Values and Chinese Agriculture

Land Values and Chinese Agriculture Land Values and Chinese Agriculture Wendong Zhang Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist wdzhang@iastate.edu 515-294-2536 2016 Pro-Ag Meetings, Clarinda, IA, December 15 th, 2016 The

More information

Cattle Market Outlook & Important Profit Factors for Cattle Producers

Cattle Market Outlook & Important Profit Factors for Cattle Producers Cattle Market Outlook & Important Profit Factors for Cattle Producers Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu $

More information

October 14, University of Missouri Extension

October 14, University of Missouri Extension October 14, 2014 University of Missouri Extension Pat Guinan October 14, 2014 A benign growing season for much of Missouri, and the Midwest Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* April 2014

More information

FAPRI agricultural commodity outlook

FAPRI agricultural commodity outlook FAPRI agricultural commodity outlook By William H. Meyers Howard Cowden Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics FAPRI at MU UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy 21 October 2013 New

More information

Beef Cattle Market Update

Beef Cattle Market Update Beef Cattle Market Update August 8, 2017 Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences University of Missouri brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu Twitter

More information

Outlook for Hog Profits in 2012

Outlook for Hog Profits in 2012 NPB Swine Conference, Sioux Falls, September 29, 2011 Outlook for Hog Profits in 2012 Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/

More information

BMO Capital Markets New York Road Show New York, New York. December 5, 2013

BMO Capital Markets New York Road Show New York, New York. December 5, 2013 0 BMO Capital Markets New York Road Show New York, New York December 5, 2013 1 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial condition

More information

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 25, 2011 Situation Facing Livestock

More information

State of the Ag Economy

State of the Ag Economy State of the Ag Economy June 10, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 Ag Productivity and Usage Using corn as an example Source: USDA Ag Prices Using

More information

Beef Outlook. Regional Dealer Event. February 9, Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences

Beef Outlook. Regional Dealer Event. February 9, Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences Beef Outlook Regional Dealer Event February 9, 2018 Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu $ Per Cwt. MED. & LRG.

More information

Sidoti & Company, LLC West Coast Road Show. San Francisco, California

Sidoti & Company, LLC West Coast Road Show. San Francisco, California Sidoti & Company, LLC West Coast Road Show San Francisco, California February 4, 2015 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial

More information

Goldman Sachs U.S. Emerging/SMID Cap Growth Conference. New York, New York

Goldman Sachs U.S. Emerging/SMID Cap Growth Conference. New York, New York Goldman Sachs U.S. Emerging/SMID Cap Growth Conference New York, New York November 20, 2014 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

More information

BMO Capital Markets 2013 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York. May 14, 2013

BMO Capital Markets 2013 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York. May 14, 2013 0 BMO Capital Markets 2013 Farm to Market Conference New York, New York May 14, 2013 1 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial

More information

Utah Ag Bankers Conference Alfalfa and Dairy Outlook

Utah Ag Bankers Conference Alfalfa and Dairy Outlook Utah Ag Bankers Conference Alfalfa and Dairy Outlook Dillon M Feuz Utah State University Extension Feb 2018 Hay Market Most data provided by USDA- AMS, NASS & FAS 1990 1990 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994

More information

2018 Cotton Market Outlook: At What Price Should I Get Back Into Cotton?

2018 Cotton Market Outlook: At What Price Should I Get Back Into Cotton? 2018 Cotton Market Outlook: At What Price Should I Get Back Into Cotton? S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of

More information

Goldman Sachs Eighteenth Annual Agribusiness Conference New York, New York. March 12, 2014

Goldman Sachs Eighteenth Annual Agribusiness Conference New York, New York. March 12, 2014 0 Goldman Sachs Eighteenth Annual Agribusiness Conference New York, New York March 12, 2014 1 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business,

More information

Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle

Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu

More information

Agriculture Outlook. Rich Pottorff Doane Advisory Services

Agriculture Outlook. Rich Pottorff Doane Advisory Services Agriculture Outlook Rich Pottorff Doane Advisory Services General Outline An overview of U.S. crop markets Corn, soybeans, wheat & cotton Some factors shaping the outlook World Ag Situation Conclusions

More information

Cattle & Beef Outlook

Cattle & Beef Outlook Cattle & Beef Outlook Friday, August 18, 2017 Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Expansion continues, but has moderated

More information

Simply Put, Just too Much! Copyright AgResource Company. All All Rights Reserved.

Simply Put, Just too Much! Copyright AgResource Company. All All Rights Reserved. Simply Put, Just too Much! Ag Market Driers for 2014? World Food inflation to rise 3.7% in 2014 (s. 2.9% in 2013) drien primarily by gains in liestock/dairy prices. Total 2014 world meat production down.8%.

More information

Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook

Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook August 9, 2018 Missouri Farm Bureau Commodity Conference Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu

More information

Cattle Situation and Outlook

Cattle Situation and Outlook Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City Cattle Situation and Outlook Tim Petry Livestock Economist www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics September 2, 2015 Washburn Livestock Outlook-9-1-15.pptx TO ALL

More information

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook AAEA Annual Meeting Extension Track August 14, 2012 James G. Robb Director james.robb@lmic.info 29 land Grant Universities: USDA Members: ERS APHIS

More information

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook: 2015 and Beyond

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook: 2015 and Beyond Cattle Market Situation and Outlook: 2015 and Beyond Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University 2015 Market Setting Global

More information

Goldman Sachs Agricultural Biotech Forum New York, NY. March 7, 2012

Goldman Sachs Agricultural Biotech Forum New York, NY. March 7, 2012 1 Goldman Sachs Agricultural Biotech Forum New York, NY March 7, 2012 2 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial condition and

More information

US Economic Activity

US Economic Activity US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity

More information

Pork Outlook. Professor of Agricultural Economics. Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, August 2007

Pork Outlook. Professor of Agricultural Economics. Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, August 2007 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, August 2007 Pork Outlook Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/ Long

More information

Cattle & Beef Outlook

Cattle & Beef Outlook Cattle & Beef Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Peak herd size may extend given 17 returns Demand Key to

More information

Livestock Market Trends

Livestock Market Trends Livestock Market Trends Farm$mart Agricultural Conference January 18, 2014 John Bancroft Market Strategies Program Lead john.bancroft@ontario.ca 519-271-6974 Today s Discussion 2014 FCC Market Drivers

More information

Grains, Beans and Farmland: The True Diversifiers

Grains, Beans and Farmland: The True Diversifiers Grains, Beans and Farmland: The True Diversifiers Sumit Roy, Moderator Managing Editor HardAssetsInvestor.com Greyson Colvin, Panelist Managing Partner Colvin & Co Michael Cox, Panelist Managing Partner,

More information

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 24, 2012 Situation Facing Livestock

More information

2016 Grains & Oilseeds Outlook. The global outlook remains positive. 12/7/2015. Matthew C. Roberts

2016 Grains & Oilseeds Outlook. The global outlook remains positive. 12/7/2015. Matthew C. Roberts 12/7/215 216 Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Matthew C. Roberts Roberts.628@osu.edu The global outlook remains positive. www.matthewcroberts.com 2 www.matthewcroberts.com 3 www.matthewcroberts.com 4 www.matthewcroberts.com

More information

Market Briefing: S&P 1500/500/400/600 Sectors YTD Performance

Market Briefing: S&P 1500/500/400/600 Sectors YTD Performance Market Briefing: S&P /5/4/ Sectors YTD Performance December 21, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@yardeni.com Please visit our sites at blog.yardeni.com

More information

10/18/2015. Outline. Commodity Outlook

10/18/2015. Outline. Commodity Outlook Commodity Outlook Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu http://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/koontz

More information

Iowa s Ag Economic Outlook in the

Iowa s Ag Economic Outlook in the Iowa s Ag Economic Outlook in the Current Global Context Steve Elmore Chief Economist September 17 th, 2018 Iowa Bankers Association Des Moines, IA This presentation contains forward-looking statements

More information

Feeds, Price and Vola0lity

Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Growing Michigan Agriculture Conference Lansing Center, Lansing, MI Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University January 24, 2013

More information

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.

More information

TEGMA Fall Transportation Symposium

TEGMA Fall Transportation Symposium TEGMA 2017 Fall Transportation Symposium John Wilson Senior Vice President Dairy industry trends 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Million

More information

Main Outlook update results and drivers Wildcards and Emerging Issues

Main Outlook update results and drivers Wildcards and Emerging Issues The outlook for agricultural markets in the next decade: focus on price variability Jacinto Fabiosa Co-Director, FAPRI (515) 294-6183 jfabiosa@iastate.edu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

More information

2018 Farm Bill Update and Agricultural Outlook

2018 Farm Bill Update and Agricultural Outlook 2018 Farm Bill Update and Agricultural Outlook August 23, 2018 Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu 2018 Farm

More information

2016 Farm Income and 2017 Cost Outlook

2016 Farm Income and 2017 Cost Outlook 2016 Farm Income and 2017 Cost Outlook Dr. Paul D. Mitchell Associate Professor, UW Ag and Applied Economics Extension State Specialist, Cropping Systems Management Director, Renk Agribusiness Institute

More information

Mexico sugar towards 2014/15. Forget the inflexion point?

Mexico sugar towards 2014/15. Forget the inflexion point? Mexico sugar towards 20 Forget the inflexion point? Pablo Sherwell VP, Food & Agribusiness Research & Advisory pablo.sherwell@rabobank.com September 2014 1 Rabobank: Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory

More information

Week Ending: Nov. 8, 2012

Week Ending: Nov. 8, 2012 Week Ending: Nov. 8, 2012 Market Page 1. Thurs. Close Last Thurs. Close Weekly Change Week's High Week's Low Life of Contract High Life of Contract Low NEW YORK COTTON FUTURES (Cents/lb.) December-12 69.26

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX August 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated

More information

Preston s Edmond Market Report

Preston s Edmond Market Report Preston s Edmond arket Report July 2 Prepared By Brian Preston RE/AX Associates obile: 45-826-5725 Office: 45-359-87 bpreston88@sbcglobal.net www.edmond4sale.com Realtor of the Year 1995 & 22 Lifetime

More information

Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report

Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report Billing Budgeted Billed Dollar Percent Month Revenues Revenues Variance Variance Jan 2018 11,943,180.68 12,697,662.47 754,481.79

More information

J.P. Morgan New York Non-Deal Road Show. New York, New York

J.P. Morgan New York Non-Deal Road Show. New York, New York J.P. Morgan New York Non-Deal Road Show New York, New York March 2, 2018 Forward Looking Statement Warning This presentation contains forward-looking statements about the business, financial condition

More information

Global Containerboard Outlook

Global Containerboard Outlook Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper

More information

Farm Bill Economics and Expectations

Farm Bill Economics and Expectations Farm Bill Economics and Expectations Bradley D. Lubben, Ph.D. Extension Associate Professor, Policy Specialist, Faculty Fellow, Rural Futures Institute, and Director, North Central Extension Risk Management

More information

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Michael J. Swanson Ph.D. Agricultural Economist January 2018 2018 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use. The U.S. Ag Sector renormalizes!

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX July 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its

More information

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight

More information

An Agricultural Update

An Agricultural Update An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980

More information

Stock Market Handbook

Stock Market Handbook Stock Market Handbook May 11, 212 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Sailesh S Radha 83-786-1368 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of

More information

DAILY MARKET REPORT 30 NOVEMBER 2018

DAILY MARKET REPORT 30 NOVEMBER 2018 DAILY MARKET REPORT 30 NOVEMBER 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : +27 11 692 4400 Fax. No. : +27 11 412 1183 Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar 13.66

More information

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX September 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and

More information

Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets

Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu

More information

CBH AUSTRALIAN CROP UPDATE

CBH AUSTRALIAN CROP UPDATE CBH AUSTRALIAN CROP UPDATE MARCH 2017 Wallace Chang Regional Manager North Asia CBH Group - Vertically Integrated Supply Chain Our Customers Flour millers, maltsters, feed manufacturers, food processors

More information

2018(?) FARM BILL DISCUSSION

2018(?) FARM BILL DISCUSSION 2018(?) FARM BILL DISCUSSION Jonathan Coppess Gardner Agricultural Policy Program ISPFMRA Annual Meeting (February 8, 2018) www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu www.farmdoc.illinois.edu Part 1. FARM BILL HISTORICAL

More information

The Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks

The Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks The Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks Yen Chen Senior Research Economist Center for Automotive Research Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook Symposium December 1, 2017 U.S. Light Vehicle

More information

Beef & Cattle Market Outlook. Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University

Beef & Cattle Market Outlook. Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University Beef & Cattle Market Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University 1 Economic Outlook Overview: Cow-Calf Continued beneficiary of tight supplies and expanded heifer retention

More information

Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN. Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research

Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN. Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research Total US - Key Statistics 12-Months Ending July 2012 % Change Hotels 52.3 k Room Supply 1.8 bn 0.4% Room Demand

More information

Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City. Cattle Situation and Outlook Ag Lenders Conference

Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City. Cattle Situation and Outlook Ag Lenders Conference Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City Cattle Situation and Outlook Ag Lenders Conference Tim Petry Livestock Economist www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics Oct. 31, 2016 AGL16-Outlook 10-31-2016 TO

More information

North Carolina Apple School 2018

North Carolina Apple School 2018 North Carolina Apple School 2018 U.S. Apple Crop Outlook and Overview Mark Seetin, Director, Regulatory Mark Seetin and Industry Affairs U.S. Apple Association Director, Regulatory and Industry Affairs

More information

DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CITRUS FRUIT Last update:

DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CITRUS FRUIT Last update: 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Small citrus (group mandarines): clementines, satsumas

More information

Crop Weather Outlook 2012 What Follows A Strong La Niña?

Crop Weather Outlook 2012 What Follows A Strong La Niña? Crop Weather Outlook 2012 What Follows A Strong La Niña? Elwynn Taylor www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor 1/12/2012 US Corn 147.2 BPA (9.24K/ha) soy 41.5BPA (2.79K/ha) http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/extremes/summer-2011-days-over-100.png

More information

Current%Market%Situa1on%

Current%Market%Situa1on% Ca#le&and&Beef&Markets:&Short&and& Long&Run&Challenges&and&Opportuni;es Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University Current%Market%Situa1on%

More information

Have You Ever Heard the Phrase

Have You Ever Heard the Phrase Setting the Stage with Dairy Outlook Mark Stephenson Director of Dairy Policy Analysis Have You Ever Heard the Phrase! 3M Money Makes Milk! 5M More Money Makes More Milk! 7M Much More Money Makes Much

More information

Hog Market Outlook & Pricing Methods

Hog Market Outlook & Pricing Methods Banff Pork Seminar January 11, 2018 Hog Market Outlook & Pricing Methods Ron Plain Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/ The way

More information

DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CITRUS FRUIT Last update:

DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CITRUS FRUIT Last update: 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Small citrus (group mandarines): clementines,

More information

World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19

World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19 World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19 Ben Buckner AgResource Company World Veg Oil Themes in 2018 POLITICS Disorder, Trade Barriers (India More than China?) HUGE difference between world soybean supply

More information

A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values

A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant

More information

Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets

Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets Agricultural Commodity Outlook: Grain, Forage & Cattle Markets Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu

More information

Dairy Situation and Outlook

Dairy Situation and Outlook Dairy Situation and Outlook Wisconsin Bankers Association Wisconsin Dells, WI April 11, 2017 Dr. Marin Bozic Global milk production growth slowing down 2 WBA Agricultural Bankers Conference 1 Strong growth

More information

Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting. Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division

Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting. Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division Today s presentation Macro Economy Agricultural Economy 2 The Market Cycle (we ve been

More information

2018 HR & PAYROLL Deadlines

2018 HR & PAYROLL Deadlines th (by payment date) EPAF 3rd PARTY FEEDS WTE Approval 2018 HR & PAYROLL s Normal Payroll day s 2017 B1-26 3 * 13-Dec-17 15-Dec-17 n/a n/a n/a 28-Dec-17 29-Dec-17 11:00 AM 16-Dec-2017 29-Dec-2017 JAN 2018

More information

Hotel Industry Update. Stephen Hennis, CHA, ISHC

Hotel Industry Update. Stephen Hennis, CHA, ISHC Hotel Industry Update Stephen Hennis, CHA, ISHC 1 Through Aug 2012: Strong Results Despite Headwinds % Change Room Supply* 1.2 bn 0.4% Room Demand* 741 mm 3.3% Occupancy 63% 2.9% A.D.R. $106 4.3% RevPAR

More information

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District

More information

Modest fall in December Orders Offset by 19% Gain in Annual Total over 2017

Modest fall in December Orders Offset by 19% Gain in Annual Total over 2017 For Immediate Release: February 11, 2019 REVISION Contact: Amber Thomas Director - Advocacy & Communications, AMT 571-216-7448 or athomas@amtonline.org Modest fall in December Orders Offset by 19% Gain

More information

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights DeWitt Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai,

More information

Market Insights. June 30, 2018

Market Insights. June 30, 2018 June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%

More information